Just on Gold, GLDX volume was low (developers/explorers) the big GDX, includes the miners and volume was surprisingly high, probably the Swiss vote.
Peter you might have already found the trade of the week for next week! I am interested to see what you will find out.
Thanks for that,
FE
Hi Team,
well, I will do my COT analysis but looking at the price action of the last days - which is not included in COT - I think this week the COT report will not be too interesting and we have to wait until next week.
Price action does show some interesting future possibilities. Peter might write us something about copper in relationship with oil or how oil effects all other commodities as I guess oil was responsible for this huge price fall of commodities in the last two days. We are getting close to Philips $65 level where he said to watch out. Gold and silver both got huge hits, a protective SL was definitely not bad to bring me out at least a little above BE. I also do not know if oil can have unusually high effect on agriculturals. Looking at wheat, it had yesterday an unsual rise; on the other side soybean had an unusual fall. So the question is if they are also highly correlated to all other commodities or more independent.
I remember what Peter wrote a lot earlier about Williams: ā2015 will be a great year for commodities. You just have to close your eyes and buy them.ā Well I am getting ready!
FE
Hi Team,
well, I downloaded the new COT report file more times and the conclusion is clear: there are no new COT data uploaded so there is nothing to analyse and discuss this weekend 
Maybe Peter and BB have a bit more experience what happens in such case. I believe it has to do with US holidays on Friday. So are they going to publish the data on Monday or are they going to include 2 weeks of data on next week Friday?
Well even if there is no report, I will use the time to do the chart updates what BB told us this week. At least when the report is out I do not have to do anything with the charts.
Have a great weekend guys,
FE
Hi BB,
I have a bit of a problem updating my charts with your trick. Maybe this weekend is a good opportunity to discuss on which of the 6 indicators does it work and on which one not.
As I see for the Net Positions and Open Interest charts the method is not working because we need 3 years of data so we have to manually pull the values down every weekend because the oldest value has to fall out and this means we have to take it manually out.
Now I made the charts on CP/OI. It also did not work. I show you with two pictures.
This is how it looks like on at the present time on silver:
According what you said, if we add empty cells then the excel sheet will not consider it, only when we update it. Well it is not the case with my sheet because I added like 35 cells and half of my chart is empty so you can hopefully tell me where the mistake lies:
I have the same problem with Willco, COT Movement Index and COT Index as I had with CP/OI. I do not attach any other pictures because they are all similar to the CP/OI pictures.
Thanks,
FE
It only works if you include the dates, although I donāt know why. Actually, my goal was to eliminate the need to update the OI & NP charts each week as that was the most time consuming. Fortunately, Excel remembers the values in case of COT Index, CP/OI and Willco so you just have to select the new values and they will be added.
As for the COT report, I encountered the same problem. I guess we will have to wait until Monday.
Hey guys.
Hereās some stats. For the month of November. Pips against everyone totaled up. (barometer of strength)
(weekly candles)
Week 1///////Week 2/////////Week 3///////////Week 4//////////Totals////////
USD: +538///NZD: +1625//CAD: +1078////EUR: +1117////NZD: +1617
CHF: +411///AUD: +1060///GBP: +429/////CHF: +930//////CHF: +1491
NZD: +325///CHF: +555////USD: +426/////GBP: +614//////USD: +1234
CAD: +243///CAD: +305////NZD: -121//////USD: +358/////EUR: +628
EUR: +180///EUR: +125////JPY : -171///////NZD: -212//////CAD: +560
GBP: -159////USD: -88//////CHF: -405///////JPY : -249//////GBP: -1253
AUD: -665////JPY : -1445///AUD: -440///////CAD: -1066////AUD: -1537
JPY : -874////GBP: -2137///EUR: -794////////AUD: -1492////JPY : -2739
And if you add them up the Comms had +640 pips up against the majors.
Concerning the CHF. Iāve been thinking. Why are they up there? We know they tail the EUR. But there is a divergence there. It surely isnāt because of fundamentals, on their own anyway. Maybe their current account balance. But I think they represent an absence of something. Like their the recipient of the opposite side of both strength and weakness of the other currencies. For instance, we all know how weak the Yen is. So, surely the CHF will strengthen. And whoever else is weak, (EUR) you gonna go long CHF. Also whoever is strong you know your gonna go against them. So Iām thinking they represent the middle of the road, and on the playing field you can gauge the balance of everyone by looking at them. And now since they are close to the top that tells me (this month anyway) that there has been more different currencies selling across the board than buying. Okā¦maybe like being a bear market. As I look back on my records, in the beginning of the year it was the Pound and Swiss that dominated the market. Feb and March is when the last time the CHF shined. And weāre talking big time. And if you remember thatās when the USD was supposed to be coming back. There was so much anticipation for the Dollar to dominate. āThis is the year of the Dollarā Well, that was delayed until summer time came. But, in the mean time, the CHF was the substitute. And no one else stepped up, cause at that time (early spring) thatās when the GBP was coming down off their highs. And we all knew the EUR was fretting about their inflation situation. So they were not strong then. And then come end of March is when the Comms took center stage. The CHF had to step away and let them rule the world. The Comms dominated up until the end of July. (All 3 Comms dominated). Then at the end of July is when the USD became boss. They have had a good run. But now (as you guys have stated) they are faultering a bit. So, for this month we have a pretty strong Dollar still, one strong Comm, and the CHF in between them.
So, thereās my thoughts on the CHF, with a little bit of looking back on the year.
I remember writing up about the CAD last week. Talking about how strong they are, and being able to play both sides of the field. Wellā¦look at what happened to them between the 3rd week and 4th week. They have erased those pips, just like that. I wonder what was the cause of that. Maybe Doc can elaborate.
Well, if you donāt know by now, I like to see the big picture and keep it always in mind.
Maybe at the end of the year, coming up soon, I should give a good recap on what took place this year. I can put them all into perspective for you and how they related to one another.
But, the question isā¦does it (history) really have an affect on what happens in the future? Or is it just purely history, and the future brings completely different storiesā¦
Mike
Hey guys!
Since we wonāt see the fresh report until Monday, I decided to make use of the time I usually spend updating my database, so I created the Cross Index for EUR/AUD.
It took a while to figure out what did Briese actually mean when he explained the index. Turns out, you only need the Net Positions for both the base and quote currency instead of the long/short positions I was experimenting with at first.
Formula for EUR/AUD Commercials CI: EUR Commercials NP+(-1*(AUD Commercials NP))
Iāll probably add a couple of CI to my database, but now Iām taking a well-deserved rest 
Hi guys,
Mike,
nice monthly analysis and thoughts. I am not that good with CHF I would think they lose as the SNB is ready to take action. Go to read from you again!
BB,
what a great idea with cross currencies. I also start it.
Peter,
can you make in Oanda MT4 willspread for everything? Can you please suggest for me a secondary market for oil?
Rookie,
you have GBP, AUD, CHF and CAD. I have EUR, NZD, JPY and RUB. We should also setup the COT report for cross currencies. How about this: you do it for your crosses and I do it for mine? It saves a lot of time as we both have analysis for the own currencies and we just have to copy paste our net position totals. Of course you have more work as RUB falls out for me. We already cover then the 7 USD pairs, you cover 6 crosses, I cover 3, I think we do not need to do EURCHF and AUDNZD, that is another 2 pair. This is already 18 pairs from the 28 main pairs! Not bad! What do you think?
Have a nice weekend everyone further on,
FE
Hi BB,
first of all thanks for your patience and help. I still need it as I just do not get it. I attach a picture how it looks like and another one how the bottom part of my excel sheet looks like. Maybe you can see where the problem lies.
The other question is about COT Index, CP/OI and Willco as you divide the charts into two categories. I do not really know what you mean that excel remembers the values. I update all 6 charts the same way every week. I do not know anything that would help be different for NP and OI and for the other 4 tables. Can you please explain it a bit more in detail?
Thanks,
FE
If the chart if complicated (Net Positions with OI for example), the Excel wonāt ārememberā the values once you modify the chart (youāll have to select the values again each time you update the chart). That is the case with the chart of NPs & OI. CP/OI, Willco, and the Movement Index on the other hand are simple charts (Excel will remember the values). If you send me your e-mail in pm, Iāll send my database so youāll see what I am talking about.
FE, here is my work chart on WTI - the good old USB10yr as secondary.
Thereās lots of lines, sorry about that, I just pasted as it is.
My thinking in all those lines is simple, I know price is going down (I posted a week or so ago my reasoning, little changes over the years).
Anyways, so Iām looking at price rises, why rises? - well they are like a fakeout, they are not real, so by using USB10yr I am more interested in those guys I keep harping on about - the guys with the money.
See the last arrow down, I put it on that day and then stopped with the arrows - there was no point in any more.
BTW this was the reasoning, OPEC have very many varied interests, over the years they have sometimes agreed on some things, seldom have the individual members ever adhered to anything ever agreed.
Also, the numbers, I wouldnāt be so sure where this will stop.
Hi Peter,
thanks for posting. You are funny. You say sorry for those lines. On my side we learn the most from those lines! I hope you traded at that last arrow! That would mean you can invite all of us for dinner!
FE
Hi BB and Peter,
I made my EURNZD index. I am sceptical on the results. As I see we are getting to an extreme so EUR should turn. Well, this does not really line up with my fundamental bias to say the leastā¦ More than that Williams did not mention something in his book about the cross currency index so I thought you two might have an idea on this. The problem is the OI for the two currencies are completely different. Our only choice to make this cross currency chart is to take the numbers from the USD charts. However as there is a lot more OI for EURUSD as for NZDUSD, this cross currency chart is based almost only on the EURUSD net positions. Any thinking on that?
BB,
do you think it makes sense to make any other indicators on cross currencies than net positions? I think it takes a hell of a lot work.
Thanks,
FE
I would be wary of getting in at 65$ on crude oil FE. You donāt want to pick the bottom. You want to ride the trend. I was watching news yesterday a recap on OPEC meeting. And one of the attendees probably from one of those oil rich countries was saying in 2004 if Iām correct when oil price was sliding down, OPEC came in and cut productions to a new low levels, however that didnāt help much with declining oil prices, oil prices have continued to decline all the way to 35$ from 50-70s (I believe it was something around that line) and he concluded its all up to the market to decide where the bottom is. I wouldnāt be surprised if oil keeps falling further down even past the 65$ range along with gold - now that the deflationary pressure is rising.
Rookie is right,
now it is time to take it easy 
Peter, I thought it was going to be one those songs that they play during this season over and over again. I clicked the link with not much hope expecting little and surprise surprise ! it was a good listen in the morning
Good weekends all.
PS: FE, Iāll have to read BBs posts on crosses and Iāll try it out. Iām in of course. You know the answer already
It has to be some adult video. It is prohibited where I live (means that I cannot open it)
It takes less than a minute to create a CI when you already have all the info you need in your database. Once you create the template, just Ctrl+C - Ctrl+V the NP values from both the base and counter currency and youāre all set. After that, you can create the COT Index and Movement Index. I guess we have to make a historical study to see how precise extremes were.
On OI, I doubt that we can create OI for CI.