Hello guys, sorry I have not posted my COT results this week.
The truth is, I’m in a little trouble and in need of your help.
It is a strange story but the bottom line is, I found out that my broker will close officially within next week. This means that, if I don’t close all my trades in time and transfer my balance, I could lose my money there.
It would be great if you guys send me a message of another broker that you think is more reliable.
Thanks team.
Hey Philip.
Broker.
Well, I’ve tried Oanda. (All demo of course). That was last year. Their good. I think I didn’t like the fact that you can’t hedge trades with them. Then I went with (still am) Netdania. Since June '13. I absolutely love them. I haven’t even looked for any others, cause I’m content with them. I can’t speak about a live account, but demo is good. That’s all I can contribute. It’s the ‘netstation’ you want.
Forex Charts | Currency Charts - free
Mike
Ok, just to get the wheels rotating again after the weekend, Monday is manufacturing.
It’s interesting to see the effects of the numbers, China is an important manufacturing economy, so the numbers will should have an impact on Aus, and indeed on the S&P.
Then the UK, when GBP was on the rise earlier this year it mattered little that these numbers came in poor, the market agreed that the UK is not a major player in mfctr, now I wonder will good numbers impact on GBP in the reverse.
Not really into trading on Mondays but I may have some interest on the stocks - let’s see how it goes.
Nothing of major interest to report - I love it when the market is quiet 
Just on a little side thought, I’m wondering if there are many people buying oil on Monday, just wondering…
I should have clarified my thoughts on stocks - the oil news is positive for stocks, so therefore we should see a rise in the Nikkei and then Europe, the US futures should track all of this - this is what I’m looking for.
Still no report. Damn.
Hi Team,
Peter,
you confused me. I got up, checked the S&P chart and thought: “That cannot be true. Peter the Great was right on spot again. And they say no one sees the future price movements.” I thought this because I remember all you analysis from last week where you did spot a divergence and forecasted a price fall just in the beginning of next week. Well it did happen right on market open. However today you wrote that you expect stocks to rise. So I am confused from what you said last week and today. To help out, I attach a chart which is very interesting and you can share us some new thoughts on it. If wee look at the chart it shows S&P decreasing but S&P A/D line increasing. Wow this means it is exactly the opposite that we have observed in our classical setups when troops said no, and they did not follow the generals but pushed prices higher when generals were heading down. Now it seems like generals are going down and they pull the price down, but troops said no again, however they lose as in the case today they are not strong enough to push prices higher and they are losing the battle. Russel 2000 is heading down, just like NY A/D Line. This makes an interisting situation as the technical aspects show a fall in my eyes, but the fundamentals do not confirm this fall.
Philip,
I get back to you in PM as I do not want to open the discussion here. BTW maybe it is not that big of a problem if you cannot trade as you were not able to buy too much oil 
BB,
we should keep checking the COT report situation during the day and if we see that it is out there then share it in the thread.
All the best everyone,
FE
Hahahahaha ROFL Hahahahahahah ROFL
Guys, you do not believe it. I have a problem with setting up my willspread on USDX. I wrote into google: “what are the willspread abbreviations in mt4?”
So what did Mr. Google find?
Well one of the first hits (and actually the first about the topic) was my own discussion with Peter in this thread in the end of October. Hahahahahaha
I thought I give a try and type in just for the fun: “COT report forum analysis”. We are beating the officials sites and placed second in google
I remembered Peter who said we are getting attention.
I had to share it with you guys as I found it funny.
So from now on I expect even better quality so we don’t disappoint Mr. Google.
FE
Interesting. ProGo moves very similar to Will-Spread.
S&P 500 chart (Green line = ProGo, Red Line = Will-Spread of 10 Years Treasury Bonds)
Guys was the babypips.com site offline for 5-6 hours for everyone or only for me?
Philip, please empty your emails.
FE
It was off for me. I emptied my email.
Hi Guys,
Not only was BP off, all my connections work and home were offline, talk about withdrawal symptoms!!
FE, on the S&P thing, lol, not expecting a rise, the ‘rules’ were saying that there ‘should’ be a rise, i.e. the result of the falling commodities. The falling CRB ‘should’ be positive for stocks.
See how the Nikkei played along with the rules and did what it was supposed to do.
The interesting thing for me is to see if our theory of the nervous investor is correct on the S&P
I have to admit that the China data aided and abetted the theory, but I’m still convinced that the Russell 2000 was the heads up that the bulls were getting jumpy, that nervousness was on display when the FTSE opened, then came the S&P’s turn.
I was reflecting during the weekend as to why would investors be nervous, maybe they were anticipating the Chinese data, maybe they are cautious of a pull back, just not sure.
Hi guys,
I started to look into the Trading with Intermarket Analysis book by J. Murphy. Now I understand why it is Peter’s favorite book and why Rookie liked it a lot.
I am only a couple of pages into the book and it is just awesome to understand such correlations. Many of the readings is just to repeat the knowledge what I already learnt from Peter.
And here come 2 question to Peter, right from the beginning of the book. Murphy writes in the introduction: “Since 2008. stocks and commodities have trended pretty much in lockstep.” Now we discussed actually they move into the opposite direction so this sentence makes me think what is the correlation between the two segments.
The other question goes on Bonds yield. Peter had a short discussion with BB about it and also he mentioned it short a couple of times. Murphy states that Bonds yield are often an indicator for stock prices. We have never used bond yields in the thread. The question is, do you look at it, Peter? Or does someone else has any experience with it? Can we only trade bond price or bond yields, too?
I am happy for the discussion,
FE
Bond yields are negatively correlated with bond prices. The more pricey a bond, the less yield you are going to get -> because it is a relatively ‘safe investment’.
Junk bonds tend to be cheap with high yield, because you are running a considerable risk while holding it.
WOW metals are on a roll today!
COT report is out, I’ll give you guys the results tomorrow as it is already past 9 pm.
Hi guys,
I think if someone wants to show in the thread something about the COT report which hasn’t done or at least presented by BB, then the person needs to be either smart or fast. Well, I do not say I was too smart but I used BBs cross currency index and made a historical analysis before him, so I take this trophy :-))) Come on BB, admit it, I am the first one with a cross-currency historical analysis
Ok, now the important part. I attach the EURNZD historical price analysis in combination with the combined net positions for the same time period. I show some of the tops and bottoms on the charts. We see that it does not show any kind of pattern. Hopefully BB and Rookie can post other analysis to see if this is an exception or it is on most cases like this. If the later, then it does not make sense to follow the cross currency net positions from the COT report. If you look at my chart you can see the some extreme positions actually are for the currency extreme positions but sometimes it is true for bottoms, sometimes it is true for tops, and most of the times the signals are just false.
Conclusion: we have to be sceptical about buy and sell singals when making historical analysis for cross currencies. At least it does not seem to work on this pair. I still believe it has to do with the fact that EURUSD has the most OI, NZDUSD by far the fewest (EURUSD has 21x more OI than NZDUSD) and this extreme situation gives me the feeling that only EUR is influencing the results here. We should look for a cross where OI is about the same or at least similar between the two sides.
FE
Aha… now we move into thinking land, FE says I sometimes make predictions -I don’t, I do think out loud, always asking myself why.
Now FE is doing the same.
On question 1, the very thing that I was talking about at the weekend.
This is the thing about correlations, you have to think about context. In 2008 there was smelly stuff hitting the fan as far as business was concerned. This turmoil was big time bad, many businesses were in great difficulty, many went bust. The net result of all this was that the market concluded, rightly, that there would be a major decrease in commodity demand, less business means less demand for the raw material of business - commodities.
So why would I say that the current decrease in commodity prices is good for business?
Context - different ball game, less smelly stuff, unemployment lower, earnings reports better (remember I spoke of those some time ago), GDP on the rise.
Now the context is telling us that cost of the raw material (commodities) is becoming cheaper - this is exactly why I am puzzled at the S&P investors’ apparent sign of nervousness.
On US bond market, the thinking here is also quite simple. If you are an investor with all this cash, and it earning very little, you are advised that all is well and the better returns are in Stocks, so you invest there.
Then you are advised that there may be a little problem up ahead, get your money safe quickly, into a safe and liquid pool - you sell your stocks and buy the Bond (safety is your immediate concern, not return).
To see this in action view the US10yr daily and the S&P daily.
So what about today? they were selling the 10yr and the S&P … strange but true, so keep an eye out there tomorrow.
(this is why I use us10yr as the support market on Willspread)
Hey guys.
Monday’s results.
CAD: +7 -0 0///+5 -0 0
NZD: +6 -1 0///+5 -0 0
GBP: +5 -2 0///+1 -2 0
AUD: +3 -3 1///+3 -1 1
JPY : +3 -3 1///+0 -2 1
CHF: +1 -5 1///+0 -3 0
EUR: +1 -5 1///+0 -3 0
USD: +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Comms took it. +12
If you guys don’t know by now. The price of oil has risen, and that put the CAD up on top today. I don’t know what did it for the NZD, but the GBP had some good news during their session. Gold was good for the AUD.
There’s gonna be some things flying this week with all the big news coming.
0100 GMT
Mike
Things looking brighter this morning, Nikkei up, ftse has closed yesterday’s gap down, USD has appearances of strength - so, it’s off to work we go, s&p I’ll leave alone until the open there
Well, since you are covering less than 3 years, we don’t know whether the lines really represent COT extremes. Except for 2014.