Lol, Mike, I’m on a roll - above was the voice in the wilderness, USD heading for the moon. The Euro actually rose 400 pips in the days since that post (March 11) - so what was I seeing?
I was just looking at the data that the Fed now say they will take on board before making any rash decisions, I suspected that maybe they are not as foolish as many analysts say, I also suspected that they would get rid of the silliness surrounding “patience”.
Thanks for an amazing post. A great constructive view on the on the American economy and how it links to stocks, Dollar and commodities. It is very compelling.
Hi Team,
the first instrument to check this week is the [B]AUD[/B]. Usually USD pairs show similar tendence in the net positions but this week AUD differs from the others. If you check the report you can see that AUD net extreme turned but it cannot be seen until this point on the charts. Usually AUD made some rallies earlier when this level was reached.
I share you guys my trade ideas usually, no matter if they will turn into a winner or a loser. So now comes [I]Philip[/I] favorite commodtiy: [B]Crude oil[/B]. COT Report does not tell me much. However my system says a buy signal might come next week. I do not like bottom picking but I checked and the last couple of times when the signal came on Crude I would have made nice profit. If it comes once more, I go long.
[I]Rookie[/I], what do you think on buying [B]Wheat[/B]? In 1-2 weeks it will be an interesting question, we should be ready for it.
[I]BB[/I], you analysed [B]Copper[/B] always, I think the COT Index sell signal is around the corner.
My arguing buddy, [I]Philip[/I]. Please check Gold net positions. What do you think? I discussed earlier that I am getting close for a gold buy signal and I think I missed one. The net positions and COT Index both show me that a buy setup might be a great R:R trade.
Ok, I think I mentioned every COT Report analyst so now all I have to do is to wait for the answers.
I am mostly interested in Gold and Crude. I wonder what you guys say, especially Gold looks good to me.
Have a nice weekend,
FE
Hey guys!
Been following every other post. I’ve passed up on FOMC statement, there couldn’t be any better sum up thanks Peter !
I actually have been anticipating reversals on some dollar pairs since early this week. Just browsed through some dollar pair charts, there we might some surprises next week guys we’ll see what happens I’ll leave it there.
Can we count this as a double bottom ??
For now it seems nothing more than a correction as far as CRB index goes, but what I saw on my charts I mostly look at 4h chart these days it looks like that the move is more than just another correction. I won’t be looking for clues on CRB index, after many attempts of using this as a timing tool worked out not so good. But if I see a follow up on the move thats already established on certain pairs or instruments I’ll place my entries. By then it should become clear if dollar rally is over and commodities are finally up on the rise, time to start buying some comdolls ? Its going to be an interesting play.
Yeah this is a very interesting report and I’ll need to do my homework as I’m yet to look at the report.
I do want to state that two days ago I was building a case for a rally in AUD, and I mean a multi-month long rally. May be I will share it later but it is a very complicated and dynamic analysis. By dynamic I mean that bullish and bearish levels change in as little as 5 minutes of trading the pair.
Hi Philip,
ok, then we wait fot the analysis. I see that lately I like to attach an “s” to your name, I do not know why. Do not take it personally though, I try to pay attention and if I see somewhere it is written wrong I correct it. I corrected it now on 3 places.
FE
Hi Guys,
My suspicion is that there may be others building a case for buying Aud, and even Cad.
This little news item reflects the fact that it is all one market - world wide.
Note the fact that it was miners that led the pack.
Off for a break now, will catch up later.
BBC News - FTSE 100 index surges to an all-time record of 7,000
Mornin’ guys! :44:
Gold
I’ll be keeping an eye out for Gold, as it’s approaching oversold levels.
Platinum
Same goes for Platinum, as it is highly correlated with Gold. It’s Composite Index reading is 14%.
Corn
Might be a buy signal coming very soon. Current reading is 20%.
Sugar
I pointed out Sugar earlier as a possible long opportunity. Well, the Composite Index is oversold again, plus the Weekly RSI (14) reached oversold readings. If you scroll through the Weekly chart of Sugar with the RSI indicator attached, you’ll notice that extreme readings were quite accurate in forecasting trend changes.
Natural Gas
It’s oversold according to the Composite Index.
Good Weekend Team!
(I’m glad that we’re all talking again, so refreshing)
Let’s see how the week ended up.
CHF: +9.2%
NZD: +9.05%
EUR: +8.72%
CAD: -.57%
AUD: -1.04%
GBP: -3.82%
JPY : -6.08%
USD: -15.46%
[B]Notes:[/B]
–This is the first week the [B]CHF[/B] has taken since Jan. Interesting. I wonder if the give backs to the community are finally over, and now we’re playing ball. Very interesting.
–All eyes are on the [B]USD[/B]. It was something to see, how they came back real quickly. But then just to dive right back on down. It went like this. (Daily tally) Wed they lost -12.54%. Thurs they recouped +8.29%. Then Fri lost -9.2%. So basically the Market said “that was a mistake on Thursday, you belong right back down there”. So…is this a game changer? And we’re in for a major correction? If so, then you would think the Market has taken a liken to something else, to latch on to. Either the Commodities…Or maybe even the EUR. If the USD does down, then the EUR goes up. If the USD down, the AUD goes up also.
Well, we can tell that the money is being shifted. Out of the USD. And it’s gonna take a little bit more time to tell where it wants to go. Cause it seems like the EUR is a player now. They made 8.72% this week, biggest week all year so far. And the same with the CHF (as of late). And of course the NZD is up there, as usual.
The JPY definitely tails the USD. Maybe I just have never realized, it, but it’s true. Where the USD goes, the Yen follows.
As you guys have mentioned, we do need to watch where the money wants to go.
[B]Commodities[/B]----We would need the AUD to move. They are really the spotlight of the Comms. The NZD is the carry trade pick. The CAD is always in the middle. They get weighed down with the Oil connection. Also they tail the USD. And physically they are best trading partners (good buds). So, I think of them as swingers. But…the point being is that the AUD is all Comm. And who we need to watch out for.
I just wonder about the EUR. Are they someone to contend with now, because of the QE beginning? I mean, is the money going to be flowing through them because of that? We need to watch them. I think.
Well guys, that’s some perspective from me.
I was excited to here from all of you, especially about your thoughts on the AUD. Hey, let’s figure out the sentiment, see things unravel, and make some money from it.
BTW…I lost a good bit against the CAD. Stop loss kicked in, so at least it wasn’t tragedy.
Bad week for me. I don’t want to talk about it.
What I do want is to go back and read Philip’s new thread about money management. Slowly.
I don’t think you guys realize who we’re dealing with.
That guy Philip.
A real genius.
Time to go to school.
See ya guys this weekend.
Mike
Well for those who haven’t watched the movie interstellar, its about how we as humans exist in infinite places across all time (past, present and future) simultaneously. We are unaware of our simultaneous existence yet we affect one another indirectly. The higher more elevated species of ourselves are more aware of their lower grade selves. Yet those elevated species have a hard time dictating their lower selves.
The same could be applied to price.
When I first started trading, the first strategy I tried was a moving average crossover. 7 crosses above 14 and then 21, buy. If 7 crosses below 14 then 21, sell. Yet it seemed that almost everytime I got faked out.
When I heard that some brokers take the opposite side of the trade, I decided I’ll sell when the 7 MA is highest and buy when the 7 MA is lowest.
Have a look at the next chart and the notes on it before resuming the post.
Sorry I had to do it on trading view but pictures would have been impossible to explain with. Now as you see here we got two signals. One was a sell and the other was a buy. You noticed that one signal (sell) did very well but the other was disastrous.
So I added the 100 MA and 200 MA filter. It serves two purposes: when price is below the 200 MA, we take sell signals only and vice versa.
More importantly, When we get a sell signal (7MA above 14 and 21) we do not just sell at the market. Price is telling us “I want to try and touch that 200 MA above me and then go down.” It may sound preposterous but try it for yourself on different charts and see how it works.
A more recent example:
But where does it want to go?
We said that price was just like the movie interstellar. While I was discussing with you how price on 4 HR chart wanted to touch the 200 MA (0.7757 area), price on the 1 HR had been wanting to go to its own 200 MA (0.7653 area) all along. So you see how price is moving on all time frames with different targets unaware of its struggle on another timeframe. It’s only once we realize the idea that we start to see sort of a “handover” process. Where one timeframe, after achieving its goal, moves on to a lower and higher timeframe. And once you do that analysis on everytime frame (1 minute, 5 minute, they are actually infinite) You will understand prices struggle and where its likely to go to next.
This is actually why its very hard for me to name a level. Because its not about the levels, its about following that constantly-moving process.
[B]So here is the kicker:[/B] "AUDUSD reversal?" by trader motcha1 — published March 19, 2015 — TradingView
On May 2013 on the monthly chart. AUDUSD told us “I want to go down and try to touch my 200 MA before reversing back up.” You can see clearly in the chart that this happened in January 2015.
[I]Now be careful we cannot just assume that price will automatically reverse. We now need to observe the entire process on lower timeframe until we get a buy signal rather than a sell signal.[/I]
Back to the one hour chart, price found a floor (support) on the 200 MA and will now hand its target over to the 200 MA of the 4 HR. For us to confirm bullishness, we want to see AUDUSD break that 200 MA level. Then the 7MA turns below the 14 and 21 WHILE PRICE REMAINING ABOVE THE 200 MA STILL. (This tells us price wants to touch the 200 MA of the 4 HR before resuming to the upside (this is where we buy.)
This where we stand currently. There is still a struggle between the 4 HR ceiling (resistance) and the 1 HR floor (support). A glance at the 15 and 5 minute charts price is telling us price wants to touch the 0.77179 (5 min 200 MA) and the 0.77002 (15 minute MA) levels (which happens to be the 100 MA for the 4 HR as well).
The safest trade at the moment is to observe a break below the 0.77002 on the 15 minute chart for a sell targeting the 1 HR 200 MA. Or a break above 0.77179 for a target of the 4 HR 200 MA.
But our eyes remain focused on any hint of bullish momentum in anticipation of the AUDUSD possible upward move.
Sorry for the long post.
I sure do Mike!
Agree with you on Phil being a genius.
I’ve also stumbled upon his other thread. Not going to lie it was a bit difficult for me to digest at first, but I’ll give it a go.
You’re on a roll Phil. Keep them coming.
Hey Team.
Sorry to bother you all while you sleep. But when you wake up, you HAVE to read this.
It’s very informative, about the FTSE. And I didn’t know that it was a commodity heavy indices. The week ahead: Equities | Futures Magazine
Also…you know what I really want to explore, research? The yield spread. Between 2 countries.
This is what gave me that idea. Is very interesting!
Has Fed disrupted dollar rally? | Futures Magazine
Talk to me.
Peter…this should be all right up your alley (expertise). Can you expound on any of this? (yield spread…FTSE)
Mike
Hi Mike,
that is a great article. I want to learn the differences in the indexes and this is a good help. Philip is also interested. For you Philip, I said I am looking maybe to trade DAX or FTSE the next time instead of S&P.
Why is that? A strong USD is better for US stocks but a weak USD is better for foreign stocks. This is also in the intermarket analysis book but I forgot to mention. Of course we should also mention that this is general and stocks are of course not always rising as we know but it is a good information to keep in mind.
FE
Hey guys. Philip.
Here we go. I am very interested in this one. Hope you can follow with all the charts. Looking at GBP/JPY.
Any thoughts?
Unfortunately I cannot see the 100 and 200 MA. Just be aware that your post is unrelated to COT report so may be we should discuss it privately. I only shared AUDUSD because FE had a signal. So I’ll look at the charts and get back to you on your message so clear your inbox 
Hi guys,
I know I have mentioned this a few times, many times I have deleted a post if I feel that I may encourage this most prevalent of traits.
It’s such a natural human trait, we see oversold and we want to buy, it’s gone down so much that it just has to be at bottom.
Then we seek reasons to justify the thought, then in come the market makers, that’s their job - to make a market, there has to be a buyer and seller for a market, so the MM does his job.
Many times I have thought about the strange scenario that gets played out, TA vs Fundamental. If I am a MM, doing my job, which area can I best work in.
Anyways, the guy with the bump on his head - that’s me 
3 Reasons You Should Think Twice About Countertrend Forex Trades
I tried earlier many times to pick those tops and bottoms. I have changed this attitude, mostly because of your many warnings and examples. I do not say thanks for it because you know it anyway. Good article!
EDIT: and please always post your articles! They can never hurt. Everyone can decide on his own to digest what you write or don´t.
Hi Team,
you know that since a very long time ago I like to investigate weekend gaps as I believe they are one of the best sentiment indicators.
First of all I like to check the gaps, which way they occured and then if they get filled. If they do not get filled that counts as a strong indicator for me.
More than that, Peter recommended another thread for me (I do not say where or which thread, this is no marketing here but if you are interested write me a PM and I talk about of course) and in that thread the main contributor said the gaps usually occur in “the right direction”, meaning if we choose our trades well then these gaps more often then not will give us a revenue.
Now I scaned my open trades and trade ideas with this way of thinking and it looks promising:
Open trades:
GBP/NZD short: gap to the downside
NZD/CHF long: gap to the upside
S&P long: gap to the upside
Ideas:
USD pairs (especially looking at the AUD trade I mentioned in COT and Philip discussed in a great analysis): all USD pairs lost value (very interesting!!!)
Gold: gap to the upside
Oil: nothing
As you see from 6 trades or ideas the gap occured to the right direction and one remained neutral. That is not bad. Now comes the second part of the analysis and see if they close.
Good night,
FE
Well the world’s greatest investor is contrarian though, no? Value investing is all about counter-trend. Market makers are counter-trend…who is selling USD?
Hi Philip,
you are completely right, the question is who are we investors or traders? I believe we are mostly traders and in my opinion that is not counter-trend, at least when we talk about a high edge on the market for a trader.
And I think MMs are not counter-trend, they are counter retail traders
I am not yet selling USD, observing but for surely not buying it.
So I am not angry at you just thought I share my thoughts and increase your blood pressure before I go to sleep with some arguments opening for the next week.
FE
