Well the chart I shared was on the weekly. Sorry about the confusion. 
We have the same assessment in the short term. The difference is you bought the strength. Myself on the other hand I wait for the strength to be over before I sell. We will probably be selling together though
All I shared the weekly chart for is to say, guys be careful some shorting opportunities can be on the way in the next few weeks.
Rookie, hope you didnât short GBP - sometimes with a future event risk you weigh the risk level on a scale, in this case it was unlikely that there was going to be a govt change, often it is better to think in probabilities, what is probably going to happen, which is usually the more boring, from a press point of view pundits like to surmise on the more exciting, headline grabbing.
When the event risk is weighed, then there are 2 ways to approach it from a trading viewpoint, either trade with the probable outcome in mind or do not trade against it.
I liked that and actually that is how I got preparired for today´s NFP Report. My strategy was that with a negative reading USD will lose a lot and with a postive reading it will not gain much or will not sustain its´gain. It seems like the second case will be realized in the markets.
FE
Morninâ guys! :44:
Another week, another analysis. To be honest, Iâm quite sad to see that I am the only one putting in the effort required to come up with the fresh numbers each week. Regardless, hereâs the list.
Before we begin, Iâd like to share some thoughts. First of all, Iâve been going through Larry Williamsâ courses again to see whether I missed something.
Trade with the trend: We can (and should) use the optimized COT Index to trade with the established trend. Instead of using MAs, the trader should check whether the most recent buy (sell) signalâs price is above (below) the last buy (sell) signalâs price.
Hereâs an example:
These are the most recent buy/sell signals generated by the optimized index. Buys are invalid because the first and second buy signals are below each other.
I have so many ideas racing through my mind regarding entry/exit strategies that it will take a lot of time to experiment with all of them. Fortunately enough, I have learned how to program in TradingView (itâs quite easy) so I can combine up to a hundred indicators together and see how accurate signals they give.
Copper
We hit an extreme according to the optimized index.
Crude Oil
Bearish signal
Hi BB,
I would like to thank your contribution. I do not like to make excuses always why the analysis is not ready so I just rather say thanks for your weekly work.
Your chart is great and gets to the point. Actually it is the same we use with Philip with the â1 Minute Commodity Trader Systemâ that we already shared in the thread. Your chart is a little better as it is easier to understand (because of the visual aspect) why a signal is valid or invalid.
That is why I think you spotted earlier sometimes extremes, but these signals were not really accurate because you bought sometimes in a downtrend or sold in an uptrend. However they work great when they are in the same direction with the ongoing trend.
Have a great weekend,
FE
Indeed. All I need now is a method to jump on the trend.
Hey guys! I just want to show you what have I been working on lately. I wanted to keep it a secret until now, but I figured that you guys are the reason why I got so far, so let me present you my newest indicator.
I call it the MultiTimeFrame Stochastic Relative Strength Ratio Index :22:
It is based on Intermarket relationships which I learned from Mr Murphy. Itâs still in development phase, so feel free to give any advice which might enhance itâs reliability.
I ran tests on the Bonds market, and according to the relatively short look-back period TradingView has, itâs pretty accurate although speaks rarely.
Without further ado, behold, the MTFSRSRI Indicator!
Seems like a bunch of colorful lines, doesnât it?
Well, I can show you the signals only.
The indicator is based on the relationship between Bonds and the Dollar Index, looking at 4 TFs, while concentrating on heavy extremes and trend oriented entries. (That is why the so few signals)
It has everything you can ask for.
As I said, it is still under construction. I can only imagine the possibilities regarding other markets.
I have a couple of questions though.
Do you guys know any reliable intermarket relationships I can build upon?
Reliable indicators which shows trends?
Well, thatâs it, just wanted to give you a quick heads-up!
Hi BB,
we are open for everything, I believe Philip can help you the most. I do believe we use about the same indicators. I know Philip and rookie uses Stochastic, and Peter and I like to use Willspread and RSI. These are all quite good I think if someone knows how to use them and what are the current market conditions.
I like you intermarket relationship question. We read the whole book about that 
Maybe the best is if you just look for a commodity or the commodity index and take the USD on the other side. But I guess there is a huge variety to choose from.
FE
Hold on there fella. First just tells what are the conditions required that constitutes a signal. What are the 4 time rames you use etc.
Ratio requirements:
Buy:
Stochastic of Bond/Dollar Index must be:
<20 on 15 min
<20 on 1H
<20 on 4H
<20 on 16H
AND
DI+>DI-
reverse for buys.
It seems to work with Bonds only though. It requires a strong leader/follower relationship.
Hi Guys,
not much action here, I thought I share with you something. I do not like to spam the thread with books which do not belong here, but I do it this time.
You should read Michael Covel´s book called âTrend Followingâ. It is a great read and you can only benefit from it.
Important is that it is completely other type of book then Williams, Briese, Murphy etc. This book tells you no secret strategy or indicators. They do not even mention that stuff. It is more like a very nice read about successful traders and their psychology how they make money basically every year in the market.
I wish you good reading,
FE
Iâm a fan of the book as well. Of course it shares something with Larry Williams in that the latter is a trend follower as well.
That was last week, trading Tue/Wed and using Tuesdayâs Asian session levels - same thing again this week, Asian mid was 1.1170, high was 1.1203 - break of Tueâs high, SL needed was zero.
Hi Peter,
I was selling euro past London session upon poor GDP numbers everyone was, but at the start of US session retail sales were released and oh boy EURUSD did rally at a length where I had no preparation for had to act quick.
EURAUD had the minimum impact but the other euro cross pairs were widely affected I believe EURUSD was the driving force. While euro was gaining some momentum upwards AUD wasnât giving in easily as CAD so I figured by the look of things to close my EURAUD short , it seemed like there was going to be a long push and pull between EURAUD concluded that it wasnât worth my free margin that there must be other better setups.
This was a big fail on me working up on my patience to hold trades longer possibly overnight to a few days. I realize that being aware of correlation in between pairs can be a big help more than any other indicators that are price based correct me if Iâm wrong but thats how I think of indicators I want to quote Mikeâs âflow of thingsâ I guess thats what Iâm trying to conceptualize.
Any input Peter ?
PS: I closed my short pound position shortly after my post my account is safe and sound thanks for looking out for me
Take a look at Wheat! Classic example of being right but losing money still 
Hi Rookie,
Yeah, I have not sold Eur in some time, the fundamentals remain positive, again with the Greek caveat.
There has been some talk re bonds lately, this from Reuters 2 days ago.
German bund yields climb, lift euro; stocks ease | Reuters
The interesting thing is the sixth paragraph down - I mentioned back awhile that this is what businesses are experiencing - the sorry about price increase letters - well there are more doing the rounds of late, usually an early indicator of inflation rising.
Also of interest is the note re cost of corporate borrowing and US Bond yields.
And finally back to the corporates - EZ earnings, this post today - one of the reasons that I remain buying the Euro for now.
Strong European earnings trend continues - RTďż˝ News
Edit: just spotted the use of the word âtrendâ in the headline, so is the theory correct, that a fundamental trend will beget a price trend and then sustain it, just a thought.
I posted a news report last night which focussed on EZ and made mention of a trend.
Only fair then for me to post a current news report on the US economy which also notes an economic trend.
Then I see how the market felt about all of this - hmmm they are buying Eur/Usd despite the Greek risk and the weekend beckoning.
This I will think about - probabilities - is it more or less probable that some sort of a deal will happen on Greece.
Then I will consider the probable outcome on Eur/Usd.
I wonder, does anybody got any idea of why COT report is practically useless with Bonds and indexes?
May be because it doesnât have actual âcommercialsâ in a sense? I mean who would be the âcommercialsâ of bonds? Central banks? That would be a very difficult trade.
