Well spotted, you are correct, there are two newcomers - XLRE and XLFS, first data point for both Oct8th 2015.
ON US data yesterday the news on unemployment was positive, the news on core cpi was positive and the big thing, inflation was as expected.
The fact that the numbers were not a slip was viewed as positive since so many numbers lately have been slipping. You raise an important point for me, I try to think how the market is thinking and yesterday it reacted by saying ’ woosh, thank goodness for that, no missed expectation’.
At a different time those same numbers could be seen as negative and produce a sell off on USD.
ok, you are right. It makes sense about the “different times have different expectations”. That seems to be a logical explanation why not so good news were interpreted actually as a buy signal for the USD.
Checking the Friday report outcomes for USD is basically so mixed again as it can get. It might be just again some time until the best is to leave the USD and find better opportunities. When it all settles down a bit better opportunities might come again.
I was talking yesterday with some traders and one raised a very interesting question and I wanted to ask what you think about it. He said that stocks markets are going to crash in the foreseeable future. Well, lets do not discuss what kind of a TF is that. I was more interested about his explanation. He said he thinks that because QEs are artificial and CBs just try to push their economies with artificial money and on the surface it might look that economies are doing fine, but it is rotten quite a lot. So he thinks a crack is going to happen where reality will shows its true face for the world.
I am interested to see what you have to say about that.
That trader has probably been reading such forecasts that arose in the Spring of this year.
Back then a few ‘experts’ were saying things like “[B]It is time to reduce US equity holdings for the near term and look for a 3% to 5% move lower. The Treasury weakness is NOT a ‘risk on’ trade it is a ‘risk off’ trade, where low yields are viewed as a risk asset and not a safe haven.”
[/B]
Of course US bonds did continue to fall, and then rose, stocks did fall in late summer, but are rising again.
This was written by a respected analyst in 2012:
[B]While highly critical of China’s manipulation of the yuan, the Fed is itself using QE to drive down the value of the dollar[/B].
The reality is that some people believe that QE is tampering with the laws of supply and demand, maybe they are right, only time will tell - the ‘crack coming’ is very old, usually instances such as Zimbabwe are used.
My own opinion is that the market will continue just going up and down.
you did not share with us on the weekend if you closed your trades or not and what are your trading ideas for the next week. If you still have the comdoll trades open, or re-opened some of them, I guess you made nice gains on the first day of the week. Keep us updated how it is going.
I see some pretty strong movements from the majors today. Is there any special reason for this risk off sentiment move? I searched different sites but did not find any reason that should indicated such move. EUR is also quite strong these days, but I would be surprised if that will be sustained.
Hey FE.
Yeah, last week resuts were… -37.9 pips for me.
I closed out of the Comm trades Fri morning (for me, about 2 hrs into London). I think that was a mistake.
See, I was up about 600 pips, at London open, then it fell quite rapidly. When I seen that I was at break even, then I jumped. So, at that time I switched to the Majors (take profit Friday). So, at the close for the week I was at -200 pips. But I couldn’t close them out. I finally did at the open on Sunday. Good thing because it came back up for me.
Anyway, the only way I am trading nowadays is one against the other. On the weekend, after running the numbers, I did not see any turning. And it was definitely slanted towards the Comms. So, after closing out the Majors over the Comms (at the open) I went in with the Comms over the Majors.
How’s it going now? Well, been losing a bit the first couple days, but then today happened. I woke up to see I was down 1600 pips. Then before I went to work (like 2 1/2 hrs later) it got better. Am roughly around -700 pips now. But, we’re gonna have to see what the CAD does with their big news.
Boy, I tell ya, the NZD hasn’t done much at all this week so far. They of course pull more pips than the other 2. So when they are losing, my bottom line isn’t good. See, the line-up for Tuesday had the CAD on top. Then AUD was third. BUT…the NZD was last! That didn’t help at all.
I’m keeping track of more stats than you can imagine, that has to do with the M/C.
All in all, I trust my system. And one way or the other I plan on being on the correct side of things.
Update to that, took the profits on the S&P - looks like the hr1 200sma is now it’s target instead - old rule, never set your targets is stone
Update - Gold just hit the sell target so exited that one - took a small short on S&P on way down to HR1 sma - it has reached that level (close enough for comfort) so flat. Will post w/s later.
First the go long signal Hr1 with 200sma and w/s on US10yr date Oct15
Entry would be when price breaks to the upside where it had been when it moved down against w/s (i.e. wrong way move, break of hr1 down bar … around 2007)
Then two warning signs, first one on Monday, but being Monday it’s not as big a deal - remember the thing about the weekend talk etc. Then second warning earlier, bigger deal, easier to see that the 200sma was within it’s sights, so quick switch, now maybe long later.
thanks a lot for sharing these beautiful trades. Looking at those charts and think: these are textbook examples!
As you posted, today is a great day. Risk is on and huge movements for my trades. If the week would end like this, it would be one of the strongest weeks of the year.
Mike will surely share with us on the weekend if GBP is ruling the market or not. It will be interesting as comdolls are also not bad.
Exotic currencies showed some great signals, as you often say: long-term trades start as short-term trades. I hope these short-term trades will turn into great long-term trades later on
As you may have guessed I went long early this morning on Gbp in anticipation of the positive Retail Sales numbers, based on the BRC report.
On such news I like to trade the knee jerk, this instance I was happy with 25pips - for long term it seems small but all the little knee jerks add up I suppose.
Now short on EurUsd, looking for some momentum, but early days, not just as confident on this one, also long again the S&P.
Watching Gold to see if any reaction on Usd buying.
Well that was that, got a little momentum on EurUsd, haven’t exited yet, will see.
S&P in line with the risk atmosphere, has just reached it’s daily 200sma, but all sectors are green with the exception of XLV (healthcare) at -0.92%, the reason for that is that there are only 2 companies (Universal Healthcare and Tenet Healthcare) in double digit minus, -12% and -18% respectively.
So although target level reached I will not exit just yet, but will watch closely.
(Again, the top # is the running total, and the bold is that day’s results.)
Well, the GBP is the strongest Major. But the NZD is ruling this month.
You can see that yesterday they (NZD) were on top with 12.57%, for the day (36.84% mo). And the poor EUR came in with -14.59%. The GBP had 1.67%.
I was pretty shocked to see the JPY really separate from the USD yesterday. I don’t know the reason, but I’m sure there is.
Well, I had an interesting week so far. At one point I was down 2,000 pips. (-2000) Comms over the Majors.
Then after the EUR changed the market, I came back. This morning I woke up to (London open) +1300 pips (of a balance). So, if you can add, that’s a lot of pips the Comms have added. (over 3k)
But, now, 2hrs into London, it’s dropped a lot. My balance is around +700 pips.
So, do I jump out, or ride it out?
I did this very thing last Friday. Jumped out of the Comms over the Majors, switched, and went with the Majors. I lost. So, this time I’m keeping it going with the Comms.
Well, one good thing is, I’m not in the hole that much!!! (Like it looked like a couple days ago)
We had a classic COT set up for Silver in last Friday’s report. Short Silver. COT Index is at a shorting extreme. The public is at a long 3-year extreme. Commercial Interest is in extreme lows and WILLCO is at a short extreme. I will be looking for shorts there.
Hi Philip,
thanks to the update on the COT, I am happy to see some results on the report and observe it now myself. Can you share with us any of your targets?
FE
Update: Philip, thanks for the update, the signal is valid and great. I will be looking for trade signals to the short side. Thanks for your analysis!
This group has been working together since almost one and a half year. We welcome every new member. We take seriously what our collegaues say and here we have found friends. We help each other with thinking about the others´ post and opinion. We give each other critic in a polite way, but besides giving it, we start a discussion to see who is thiking what. If we have “low times”, we help each other.
You came into this thread, I believe posted the second time. You posted 2 lines, the second one was insulting either one or two members, not sure if it was meant to one or two posts about the stats. You have not given and suggestions or opinions. Forums are to give and take at the same time.
So if you are not there to help the community, but only to critisize others, then I can advice you two options to choose from:
Golden Slacks issued a harsh report on Draghi’s use of QE in coming weeks with possible future rate cuts. They are looking for a short term drop to 1.11 and longer term to 1.05 depending on ECB action.
There are many players that influence the market beyond the central banks.
The stats are the stats, despite your assertion they have some special attributes.
People need to see reality and not what they want to see. Let the market be the market, quietly and confidently observe how the large players are positioning themselves. Then think it through, is this accurate, have I missed the move, can I enter at this time safely?
No emotion, just look at the reality of the trade options and the consequences of the moment. The Hollywood image of a trader all hyped-up and yelling at people is very nice theatre, but the successful trader goes about his business with calm self-assurance.
Think of being a skilled surgeon. Would you want your orthopedic surgeon to run into the operating room screaming obscenities and so distracted that he does not look at your x-rays and operates on the wrong leg.
EDIT: - Since the title deals with CoT I thought I should take a peak at the EUR/USD .
Looked at Saxo, Dukascopy and Oanda and surprisingly the majority of retail traders at all three are still long the EUR.
sigh
This looks like a good example of why you should consider the fundamentals and not just the squiggly lines on a chart.
It’s Sunday morning at 3:30 a.m. and I have been reading, reviewing and planning for the upcoming week for hours. I understand that turning on a robot when Sydney opens is easier, but I still prefer to spend the time and understand what is the market doing, why is it doing it, where is likely to go, and consider both fundamental and technical factors in concert.
