So, we have another week ahead of us. I’ll tell you what I’m up to.
I ended up last week with +404.3 pips. With the Comms over the Majors. Their still open.
And I have not seen any real deviation by the numbers yet. So, I’m just gonna continue with my open trades. I’m just letting them run.
Maybe you can understand another chart of mine. This one is the Majors VS. Comms. Blue is Majors, and the other color is Comms. This is only this months totals. I do have it all back to the beginning of the year.
I am happy you took a look at the COT Report. From the sources you said, I used the Oanda COT Report, but never Dukascopy or Saxo. Maybe you can write a little how you found those. I did not like Oanda much as it was missing commodities completely (only had silver and gold) and with the help of [I]peterma[/I] we have identified a miscalculation of their numbers. So we made our own charts and analysis mostly based on the help of [I]BBalazs[/I]. I am more than happy to talk about it again.
From your post it was not clear to me what is your take that retail traders are long with the EUR. We made some historical analysis before and the result was to better be on the other side of retail traders. This is not the case with every single instrument but with most of them.
I am with you about the comms. I do not trade them with so many trades against so many currencies as you do, but I am also with them. I picked some pairs where I see long-term good potential and also some weak majors and plan to hold the trades on a long-term.
this week looks to be up and down on the charts. Can you please post me the daily results of Monday and then on Tuesday? Please do it in a format so I can see the numbers good.
I also have a question for you. It is more fundamental. The EUR got as bad fundamentals last week as it could be. I would have expected a couple of weeks sudden drops in EUR pairs. This has not happened. Last week the EUR got beaten up, but since then it is consolidating. More than that, actually this week it is making nice gains against the others. Is it just a squeeze to the upside to push out the short positions?
On the left is my line-up at the end of day Friday.
And each day is how they stacked at the end of each day.
FYI…I switched from Comms over Majors, to Majors over Comms. I did that at the beginning of Asia (Wed).
I took +167.8 pips. (At one point I was up over 1k, but I see a change coming)
Let’s see what happens today.
That took one week, but I didn’t jump in until after the statement, it is difficult to anticipate Fed statements, the best that I can do is be prepared, so QE for Euro and rising rates for USD screams a sell on Eur/Usd and a sell on Gold on the back of the strong USD.
I didn’t touch GBP because of the possibility of Pound buying on the Eur/Gbp cross.
First trades of the week, patience pays I suppose.
Well that’s me out, getting a bit late now for day trading.
One thing, on the intercross thing, Gbp/Usd moved half the amount of Eur/Usd, so it would have taken twice the leverage with twice the risk to achieve the same result.
I completely agree with both of your statements. We have to wait patiently for sell signals on EUR/USD and I believe great short-term opportunities will arise.
Honostly, I was surprised on the hawkish report (based on low inflation and already a very strong USD), but I know, it is not the business to think too much, but rather accept and react.
Yes, the gdp numbers out today, many suspect that those numbers will be around expectation given the tone of the Fed yesterday, that coupled with some German numbers may well add to selling pressure.
It will be interesting to see whether price can make it back up to 1020 area in the coming days.
Well, I’m out. Cashed out. Around an hour or so after London began today. I took +900.1 pips. (Majors over Comms) It’s end of month now, so must regroup for next month.
Man guys…I was right. Just the other day I seen the tide turn. The Comms had their run. Sure I was up 1300 pips at one point, but then the dive came. Got out +167.8. Then I immediately switched with the Majors. And I guess I was lucky to pretty much take all of them. But, of course, the week isn’t over.
I have a feeling the Comms might strike back with the rest of the week coming. This morning (London open) I woke up to just about +1000 pips. Then it slid down to around 700 pips, then boosted back up to 900. I then jumped.
So, whatever happens next, it just doesn’t matter, to me. I made my money. Happy. And a pretty good month. (preliminary total is around +23%)
BTW…2 more months to go…then…I’m going live.
Watch for my thread on that one. It’s gonna be a statement to those who side with the notion, ‘go live first and only then will you learn’.
I disagree.
although the strong US and weak EUR fundamentals, EUR is advancing continuously, without even a little break in the last two days. There is no economic report for this movement at all. We do not have to interpret every single movement, but this slowly movement made me think. Then I came to the discussion that Mike and Peter usually reminded us: the month end fix. If US profit taking is in the game then on Monday we should see USD rally. We will see.
Hey FE…team.
I do agree with you about the reason why the EUR is climbing, at the end of the month here. It makes sense. But, come next week…I don’t know about any USD advancing much. (Sure we will have to see how it plays out) But I will be more watching which way the pendulum swings, between the Comms and Majors. I kind of think maybe it will be more on the Comms side.
Although this weekend I’ll have to see some kind of evidence.
So, remind me, to point out all of the reasons of what I think might happen this coming week. Summary.
Yep, that last caveat, took only two days, went a little further even.
I didn’t trade it up, I have a rule, well actually more an attitude, if I catch the move on the way down then ok, let the pull back go. On the other hand, had I had missed the move down then I would def trade the move back up.
On the 15 min, if you draw a line on 1025 and look closely - see the reaction. Those were orders, left behind on the quick move, but those orders were not pulled, only one reason, the first part of my post.
The Fed had already sight of their own GDP, there was no way that they would post a hawkish statement if they knew that GDP was a miss, the banks spotted that, but momentum beat some of them. Only one thing to do in such a circumstance, get price back up to match those missed sells, by whatever means necessary.
I know this may all sound kinda cynical, but that’s the FX market.
Now, if I was looking for some guidance for the early days ahead, then I would check the Gold traders to see what they think, strong USD or weak USD?
well, it would have been good to read your forecast and also to know if you had open positions. There were many gaps and some of them were not filled. The best ones were my TRY pairs, they hit the jackpot!
Peter,
gold is going south on shorter time frames so for me this means USD strength. I will share my COT findings shortly to see it. EUR/USD started with gap up, but haven´t change since that (okay, it changed little)
although it is a bit late to upload the COT Report findings, I did not have time earlier to do it.
As Peter said, it made sense to check USD from different perspectives (with a little intermarket analysis) if we see USD strength or not weakness?
Looking from a currency perspective, USD in the COT Report looks more bullish than bearish, especially vs. the EUR.
Checking the commodities, the picture seems a lot clearer. The COT Index suggests that we have arrived to a point (actually it already started for some commodities) where the next leg down should come. These are the points when the COT Index signal fails then we have a trend change. At this moment - with the current fundamentals - I do not see many reason for a trend change just yet, but a SL is always needed as we can never be sure.
Quite many top tier data this week, including the NFP Report on Friday. I wonder how much firework are we going to see. I guess there are two options this week: either staying on the sidelines or having very wide stop losses.
What are you guys going to do? Any special interest for some specific reports to trade?
