Selling volume getting weaker, contrary to common knowledge, is a healthy sign of the downtrend. What we are looking for is an anomaly. A small bearish candle with very high volume. That signals the beginning of a reversal.
Before that, you will want to see a big red candle with high volume, followed by a green candle, that signals accumulation. We are yet to see any of that so far. We should be close though.
EDIT: For the RSI you will also need to see a bullish divergence above 30 to see buying. Thatās on the 1 hr timeframe of course.
I (of course) have been watching the NZD. And I noticed something. I think that there was an intervention. At 2200 hour Sun. I will post up the chart. Look at the 3rd candle from the open. Across the board it just goes down. And will you notice that the market says āokā¦thatās what you thinkā¦this is what we thinkā¦ā, and just erases it all.
Okā¦Iām in. Thanks Flowsā¦good link. Good stuff about Gold/Silver. And if you go over to Goldprice.org thatās where I found some real interesting stuff. Predominantly the Gold Silver ratio. I wonder how that ratio has an effect on the prices. That ratio is how many ounces of silver you can buy to one ounce of gold. Itās comparing the value of one to the other. And lately the value of gold has been appreciating to the value of silver. I think thatās an important aspect to look at, given you guys are talking about the divergence of the price of gold to the price of silver.
I need to take a look at the FX charts of gold and silver, and compare it to the chart of gold/silver ratio chart.
What do you guys think??
Is this something, or not??
The falling dagger thing is a very old saying, even older then me. Apparently we as retail traders have a tendency to try and buy low and sell high, or so Iām told. Also it seems that we like to see a big fall and then call the bottom by going over and buying (grabbing the quivering dagger).
Williams likened the āquiveringā to a fisherman with his rod and line, heāll shake the bait a little in the water to attract the poor old fish, and thenā¦
FE, the Silver Gold ratio thing is on page 149 of Murphyās book, he tells it better than I ever could.
Guysā¦
Well Iām gonna post up a chart. Is this something or not. The USdollar index and the gold/silver ratio are presently the same as it was back in the summer of 2008. Look.
Hey guys.
Sorry about that. Just forget that. I cannot delete it. I messed up.
Thatās just the present view,ā¦TWICE.
Sorry. Iāll check into that stuff later.
There is a similar situation though going on with the present to back in the summer of 2008. Check it out.
Thanks for the link. Itās very informative. Yes, the gold silver ratio thing gives us a lot to think about. I still donāt know what to do about it though. I think I need to put more time to study the intermarket relation first before I decide anything. I share FEās feelings that we may want to stick with our current method first, to have the patience to see it grows, before attempting to learn another method. Iām a believer of the saying less is more
Oh, and Peter, any recommendation on which book about intermarket analysis to read first?
I donāt know if any of you read the Alpari forex research on here, but I do. It is very informative. You definitely get a lot of fundamentals and sentimental views on the market, as a whole. It is a birds eye view of whatās up and coming for the week. (And I donāt think itās biased at all) Check it out guysā¦Doc Rookie. http://forums.babypips.com/analyst-arena/45906-forex-research-143.html
(scroll down to todayās last 2 reports)
Interesting posts ! Mike on gold/silver ratio and dollar index, Peter and FE should have something interesting to say on that unlike me I need to think it thoroughly.
Oh and I was going to say , are you in alliance with alpari by any chance Mike ? As if they were lurking around here youāve got an instant like from them :33:
Iāll check that out probably tomorrow! Iām a little tired today. Itās been a long day.
I see there is again some work made in the thread. I could not work on it until now but I will start to go through everything.
I had some other things to do, and I also did carefully my own Q3 report based on my trade journals. Without getting too personal here, I thought I share with you the part which has to do with our thread. This is how I wrote the facts in the trade journal:
ā[I]Forum thread based on market sentiment[/I]
I started a thread based on market sentiment in the second half of May, I did not mention it in the Q2 report as there were only two contributors in the early phase of the thread and they are both not there anymore. I worked mostly alone without any participants or comments. Dedicated work usually brings itsā results earlier or later. In the end of June two new community members showed up and started to work with me. In July, a third member appeared in the thread and we became already a small team of four. Until the end of Q3 we increased our daily contributing members to six. We are progressing fast, working on the COT report every weekend, discussing fundamentals and bringing new commodities into our view to gain experience in other markets. The team has a long-term potential to reach some great results. We all have our special task to do and contribute to the thread in our own way. The thread is growing with a very fast speed and in a couple of months it will be become one of the largest threads in the forum history of the site we use.ā
Ok guys, lets get to work!
FE
PS: the trades are looking horrible, USD and GBP weakness, S&P is balancing just above my SL, at 1949.00. (it is above my entry).
thanks for the link, it gave me a basic knowledge. I cannot use much of it in trading, but basic knowledge is always needed, with that I can understand everything better in the later phase of my study.
Mike,
thanks for all the posts during the whole day! Great from you! BTW does Alpari pay for you for the marketing? You even got a like from them!
Peter,
the only problem is that we are reading two different books. I am reading the āTechnical analysis of the financial marketsā and I guess you read the āIntermarket analysisā. You are just a couple of steps (maybe a hundred steps) further, I need some technical knowledge catch up. I have seen it lately.
rookie,
as always we are having the same thoughts. I wrote the alpari thing at Mike and 2min later I see you have mentioned it too.
[I]Gold and silver[/I]: guys, I am learning, I look at the chart regularly and COT. That is all. All I want is to be there short after the reversal. I can leave money on the table but I want to spot it 2-3 days later it happened. Today they both advanced, and a very big time! I look at the volume what Philip said, it shows nothing spectacular until now. Still the move today in both metals are just huge if we compare them to what was going on lately. I hope they did not start any reversal already. No hectic though, I will wait with price action and check candlesticks tomorrow.
I took all my USD trades off the table. Iām happy with my profit and there seems to be a knack for selling the greenback when there is no news. I talked earlier in the week about RSI divergences across the board for USD and it showed true today.
There seems to be no sign of the dollar weakness ending for now. We will see how things go.
Thatās sound like a smart move especially with FOMC tomorrow.
USD, Gold, Silver and many FX pairs are trading at extremes so pull backs, even if only temporary, were certainly in order. Just how far they go remains the question and the answer might be shaped by tomorrowās FOMC.
Apparently thereās a large volume behind this red long candle , large volume indicates institutional buying or selling activity. The fact that this large volume appeared near the next major support level hints us that this volume could be buying volume. Not surprisingly soon after we see kiwi bouncing back up. And the low of that long red candle was 0.7737 lowest compared to previous candles that should confirm that it was a buying volume.
Iām seeing it as a retracement than anything else donāt be alarmed yet guys. Remember what we talked about last week ? banks forcing out the retailers by marking the price up ? I thought tick volume analysis might be something of use in this case , what do you guys think ?
