Hong Kong democracy protests fade, face test of stamina
After preparatory discussions with student representatives on Monday night, Lau Kong-wah, the Hong Kong government’s Undersecretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs, said both sides had agreed on general principles for the formal talks.
Source: reuters
Hey guys! And to all else who peeks in here…welcome!
Here we go with a Monday.
NZD: +7 -0 0///+5 -0 0
AUD: +6 -1 0///+5 -0 0
EUR: +4 -2 1///+0 -2 1
CAD: +3 -3 1///+3 -1 1
CHF: +3 -4 0///+0 -3 0
JPY : +2 -5 0///+0 -3 0
GBP: +1 -6 0///+0 -3 0
USD: +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Comms took this one. +12
Yep, and we have the NZD back on top. “back and forth…back and forth…”
Tomorrow…let me guess…bottom.
Ok guys. See ya in the am with the coffee.
Mike
I’m interested in volume spread analysis also. Could you possibly share your sources. I’d like to read on the subject.
Hi Phillip,
I think this is the source. I’ve been lurking there, and I saw Rookie posted there yesterday.
Yeah I do look at that one but its hard to make any sense of it. Because the rules traded seem vague and highly subjective. So I was looking for books rather. What did you make of that thread?
[B]Mike[/B] will you sell NZD today?
Hi guys,
Philip,
here comes a big “Thanks you, Philip”! I did not look at the charts for a couple of hours yesterday as there were no news events out there. All my USD trades were above +100 pips. As soon as I have seen your post, I knew there was something going on as you were waiting for it. I checked the my charts, I was still in positive territory but only between +15 and +49 pips for all the trades. I closed them all. We know, it might turn but I do believe you are right and the edge is not on our side now. I will not trade though vs. the USD as it is not my current bias. I rather just stay aside with it. (GBP I did not close which was a mistake. I will think about it what to do there.) Then I read Marys confirmation and today morning rookies chart. I do think it was a good choice to close them. Thanks a lot again for thinking on us and posting your ananlysis „real time”! You definitely saved $$$ for me.
rookie,
the EUR chart is interesting, and as Philip and Mary also said it looks like a retracement, we do not know how long it takes. I am happy to see current EUR strength because later on we can grab more pips on the way down again. AUD might get strength and hold on to the gain with stronger gold and silver but I do not see how EUR can hold onto it in long-term.
Mike,
your table just makes me even more sad with my GBP longs. I do agree with your guess, that it will be on the bottom today. So, if it will really be like this, I will soon start trading based on your daily analysis.
Mary,
I do not know if you were just here as a guest or you will hang out with us. Well, if it is the second choice, it would be funny. We work here since a couple of months together and the end of the last week I just told the guys how good it is that we do not have a female member as we would fight who is the smartest out there. Well, stay with us and I can observe if a female really does change here something or not.
Like I said guys, awesome posts and great analysis; actually different analysis with the same results (Philip with technicals, Mary with fundamentals, rookie with volume and Mike with sentiment). As far as I see, you four covered all kinds of analysis. I guess we do really not need other opinions 
If Peter drops a bit of wisdom for us then we will have even more edge on the market than the industrials themselves.
I wish everyone a great day, this week I will not post as often as usually but I try my best!
FE
Afternoon guys!
I’m already down with NZDUSD, AUDUSD and EURUSD. Hmmm we’ll see what happens with those.
I’ve only been around this thread Philip : 301 Moved Permanently . Its different to what flows has linked.
They’ve got a good bunch there on volume analysis I haven’t gotten a book on the subject yet but I am planning to. You might want to ask the guys over there they should know better than me.
I like your EURUSD and NZDUSD shorts, AUDUSD I’m not sure yet. I want to wait for another leg up on NZD and EUR before looking at a shorting possibility myself.
Ah, sorry, Phillip. Wrong thread. Yes, I find it too subjective for me to use as a newbie. I just skim through it for basic information, not sure if I want to focus on it yet. Btw, do you guys think USD retracement is over already?
what do you think gbp/cad today(7/10)?. i still sell gpb/cad
Hey guys!
Well I had a bad morning. My computer at home could not connect to the internet. I’m pretty upset about it.
Mostly because (Philip) I wanted to close out the NZD/USD trade I have running still. BUT COULDN’T. So, I have that one and NZD/JPY running, only those 2 now.
Yeah…I’ve been getting beat up on really bad with NZD trades. I just hope that time is on my side.
Oh, and another thing. Doc, Philip, Flows,…I want to get into the volume analysis also! What we seen from the Doc just did it for me. That was good analyzing! See, I did run around that tree some time ago. It seems like the bottom line is this…find that big volume candle and get ready for something. Especially around S & R levels. But I want to find, (experiment) with which time frames will work best looking at volume, for the time period of my trades.
So…yes…I’m in on that too.
Oh, and another thing. Wasn’t that funny how Alpari “liked” my little write up on them? !!! I was laughing about that and both Rookie and FE’s comments. Also, that woman Mary I think definitely has some insight on the markets. Looks like she’s been around for a long time. And if you want to know what I think about women…their brains are wired differently than males. They have a better memory than we do. I’m sure she can remember things at a greater degree than a normal man. She would be a huge asset to us. But, she probably doesn’t really need us. Probably very successful on her own. Men might have more determination, go getting, hard working, work ethic. But women have this keen sense, able to see things differently, remembering important stuff that most men tend to forget. They are unique. They are not men. They have a side to them that is so much smarter than us.
Look…that’s only my opinion. I could be wrong…but I’m not wrong. I believe that to be true, and no one will ever convince me otherwise. And, in life in general, they complete a man. Without them we are incomplete. When it comes to the market, women who have devoted themselves to this task must have some knowledge that we don’t have. They would be a great commodity!
Ok guys…I’m off my soap box now.
Enough of that.
LET’S GO NZD…COME DOWN!!!
Mike
Hi guys,
I am back.
Rookie,
why did you jump back so fast? Did something change in fundamentals? I wait a bit as I was really thinking it wasn’t bad to close USD trades. Philip, Peter, and everyone, how do you guys see the situation? Oh, I see Philip already shared a bit similar view what I have.
Mike,
I checked the charts to see how your NZD sell across the board would have worked out. What you said about women’s memory it is true. Never test them. I remember only for football scores but they remember for all other things like dinners, presents, birthdays etc. What a difference…
flows,
I see you have the same thinking as I do. I wait with USD longs a bit. I wait for Philips technical analysis and see what Peter has to write. Our Peter the great was missing yesterday. Hopefully everything is ok with him.
I also wanted to share guys, that during my daily chart cruise on the 28 pairs, I think I spotted 2 good reward to risk ration long-term setups and I already entered them: [B]AUD/CHF long[/B] and [B]EUR/AUD short[/B]. I do not find AUD especially strong, but they are ok and EUR + CHF I find just very week. Even if I do not make big gains it does not look very probable to lose much and carry trade gives me money every day. What makes the setups even better (and that is why I entered them), that AUD lost quite a lot in the last month so I think there is just a great chance to make pips against these two on the way back up. Based on technicals AUD/CAD long looks good but I am not so comfortable with this trade so I do not trade it.
What do you guys think in general about GBP? As my trades are still open, I wanted to ask.
FE
Hey FE.
Well I definitely agree with you on the AUD. They have lost quite a bit lately. Reminds me of the GBP. And they came back and took a lot of pips back. I think they will have that potential also. Maybe if I see the signs of that happening, I might do something about it. We’ll see. Nothing yet now though.
But, I’m still hanging onto my original plan of the NZD to go low. 2 still going now. With USD and JPY. I do have limit orders placed with all the other ones, but they have a long way to go for those to kick in.
I’m losing, of course, but still in the game.
But anyway…I agree with you on the AUD.
This would be called the “underdog”. Rookie knows about that.
Mike
Still setting up a new system, still a lot of work to do, main thing is create some good filters.
It gave me a USD sell on Mon morning which I liked since it was against the momentum.
Outlook of USD - imo USD/JPY will give us some idea this upcoming Asian session.
It’s looking at going below the round number, this may be suspect - will wait for a clear break.
AUD/USD also at critical level, worth watching.
Anyways, I may be a bit quiet (stop that cheering :)), for a while until I get this thing on the road.
Update: As I started to type USD/JPY was at 109.77, I see it is already having a re-think - could be some fun ahead??
Forgot about GBP - still think that banks are buying, will not be clear until the USD path gets sorted, then cable will lead the way.
The other thing about S&P and we discussed earlier re all the charts, sliver/gold and October etc.
Two stories today:
BBC News - Global stock markets hit by fears over economic growth
And this one; note the UK outlook
I was just entering to say that there was an AUDCHF long opportunity, great minds eh? I’m not in it yet though.
Well it would be nice to give us the thought process behind the system. I’m really excited about it and would like a little teaser.
You are right Philip. It looks like a big secret. I think Peter builds here some kind of a forex supersystem and just wants to keep it to himself. That is how he always was! (Peter, do not take this seriously!)
Philip, it is great that you also saw the signal for the AUDCHF. What about EURAUD?
Hi guys,
this might be the first time when I contribute to the thread with an intermarket correlation information. More than that, I think it is a very important correlation. Please click through all JPY pairs and then the S&P 500. I am talking about daily TF.
Check the highs! Is there something special with the day 19.09.2014? Besides USDJPY (this currency was a bit delayed but almost the top) all JPY currency pairs turned down the same day when the S&P 500!
Why is this important? I have seen in some news that we see a JPY reversal. I can doubt that. S&P 500 retracement together with JPY retracement shows me that there is no reversal. The JPY economy is not doing any better, the many risk off sentiment these days because of Ebola, Syrian, Sanctions, Hongkong etc. just bring equity markets down with a huge amount of JPY buying and therefore the yen gets the pips. If this is all over, I will go long with all 7 currencies vs. JPY. I cannot believe a better setup than that when the sentiment goes back to normal.
Conclusion: JPY will give back the won pips in a short period of time after the sentiment is “risk on” again.
Good night
Morning guys!
Here’s a bit of fundamentals.
[B]IMF cuts global outlook forecast [/B]
The International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global growth in 2015 and warned about the risks of rising geopolitical tensions and a financial-market correction as stocks reach “frothy” levels.
The world economy will grow 3.8 percent next year, compared with a July forecast for 4 percent. U.S. growth is helping lead a worldwide acceleration that’s weaker than the fund predicted 2 1/2 months ago as the outlooks for the euro area, Brazil, Russia and Japan deteriorate.
Indexes around the has declined on the news including S&P500.
The IMF said it expects the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in the middle of next year, a projection that’s in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The euro area will grow 1.3 percent next year, slower than the 1.5 percent pace predicted in July, after a 0.8 percent gain this year, according to the IMF. “We see the major risk in the stalling of the euro zone,” “The risk of recession is there,” said the IMF economic counselor. If inflation doesn’t improve in the currency bloc, the European Central Bank may need to do more to stave off deflation, including the purchase of sovereign bonds, according to the fund.
Japan, where consumer spending has been curbed by a sales-tax increase, also had its outlook cut. The IMF said Japan’s economy will expand 0.8 percent next year, compared with a 1.1 percent advance predicted in July.
China is forecast to expand 7.4 percent this year and 7.1 percent next year, little changed from the fund’s forecasts in July. /Good news for AUD/
And on geopolitical risks IMF anticipates severe effects of military strife in Iraq and Libya. Oil prices could rise sharply if crude production is disrupted, the fund said.
