Hi guys,
as you know sometimes I write an email about our main topic. Now I think what happens is not that we post too much off the topic, but I still not see currently where we are heading to. I write you some stuff and I would like to get a short answer from all of you (I think from Peter is not needed).
[I]That is how I see the current standings[/I]:
We have got a long way behind us and once BB suddenly appeared in the thread and showed a great tutorial which was a breakthrough. Everyone was happy and satisfied. We said we need some time to advance with it. Well, now about 1 month has passed and still there is no single COT analysis in the way he made it - besides the couple of market which I follow.
[I]My expectations:[/I]
This is important to emphasize from my side: I do NOT have any expectations from any of you as this is a free time activity and no one gets money for his analysis. Still, I would like to know how you guys see the COT analysis for two reasons:
- I have to plan what markets do I analyze in the future which is based on how many people is wishing to participate in the new COT analysis
- Based on the number of participants we should distribute in the markets in the beginning. Now is still everything open. I add new markets to my database and I am flexible. But when I setup my database then I do not really want a discussion that I took away interesting markets and the rest is there for you. I would like to discuss it now and do not change it later.
[I]COT analysis at this moment:[/I]
Instead of going forwards I think we only make steps backwards. BB does his analysis but half of his products are not presented yet on the weekend. I am moving forwards but slowly, adding only 1 extra product to my database/week. Rookie did not do his anayslis, although as he does the US pairs and they lost value, I agree with him, we might not see anything interesting there. Mike did his analysis but not there yet with the COT report. Our Philip has disappeared until now 
[I]Our current COT report distribution and what we do:[/I]
Mike does his sentiment analysis Majors vs. Comms; Philip does Currency Cross COT Index; Rookie does USD pairs, BB does metals and I do different markets. Well, this is everything but organized. Everybody does something but the problem is that the puzzles do not make a nice piece of work together. Philip and Rookie does do our “older version of analysis” which is ok but here is to see the difference between our old and new COT analysis: the old version only concentrates on net positions and COT Index while BBs tutorial shows 6 different analysis for every market and it does not take more time at all than our old analysis. So it does make sense to invest the time and learn it. The more I am in the faster it gets every week. BB makes a video today, it is even more help.
[I]The future:[/I]
Here comes the interesting part. As I said I have no expectations but would like to know your plans because I would like to coordinate the issue. Here is how the market is currently divided and the thread members intentions to do the new COT report analysis:
[B]BB[/B]: [I]7 metal market + 4-5 other markets[/I]. I do not know the 4-5 other markets, you said you follow altogether 11-12 markets. Please tell us these markets so we do not do double analysis. Please also write a summary at least (does not have to be charts for every single product) every weekend so we know how the other markets are doing.
[B]FE[/B]: I put myself on 2nd place not because I am selfish but I am the only one besides BB to do the analysis. I follow this moment [I]RUB, JPY and Crude oil[/I]. As you know I follow for myself silver now but this does not count as it belongs to BB and I made a false Nikkei analysis (bad Nikkei product) and I will not follow it in the future. I thought I could manage 1 new USD pair product to my database every week.
[B]Rookie[/B]: as today you said it, I do believe you will change your method - I guess to our new method - so I suspect you will join us. [I]There is no markets distributed for you at this point.[/I]
[B]Mike[/B]: I am not 100% sure if you would like to do the new kind of analysis. I do believe you learn excel but I am not sure if you would like to use it for your own analysis or for the new method. [I]There is no markets distributed for you at this point.[/I]
[B]Philip[/B]: I have no information on you if you would like to participate in the new analysis or not.
[B]Peter[/B]: I think you stay by intermarket analysis and fundamentals and you do NOT want to participate, that is why I think you do not need to answer this post. I write you down here as you are an important member for us and every member has to be listed here to have a clear view on the situation.
[I]Distribution:[/I]
As you guys see there are way too many question marks and very few certain points. [I]I have to know who is there, how many markets does he wish to follow and what kind of markets.[/I] BB said he follows 11-12 markets. I think that is a good first goal. I will try to reach that number. Now why is it important to know who will do the analysis? It greatly influences the markets we cover.
In case it is only BB and me: we will cover metals, USD pairs, Crude oil and RUB.
In case rookie joins: we can cover stock indexes and maybe some important agriculture products (+ the above mentioned)
In case Mike and Philip also joins: we ask BB to work out the currency cross excel formulas, we would cover all crosses which means we would basically cover most of the products out there.
As you see for the planing it is important to know who is there and who is not. If I know who is there then I can see which markets can we cover and do the work that way.
And even though if you do not have the time to learn the tutorial now, I would now that you come and we can already distribute you the markets. So please tell me your wishes.
The distribution has two possibilities: we give for every person a segment. A possibility is: metals, USD pairs, crosses 1. half, crosses 2. half and someone agriculture products. The other possibility is to just decide and give everyone commodities from all segments. First I thought the 1 segment = 1 person option is better but I am not sure. If we give all segments for everyone then we get a view on all markets and also we get more experience. So I am not against with mixing the segments. As you guys wish. I am very flexible for my part in the different market segments. I would like to keep the markets I do which is already mixed (exotic currency, 1 USD pair and 1 petroleum product). It is fun this way. I can also do agriculture, it is something new for me.
Please start an open discussion on the issue so at the end I have an excel sheet what I can share with you where all participants are listed with their markets. The best would be if you do not tell me the exact product you wish to do, but the segments or if you give me the exact products then tell me also how many product do you wish to do (10-12 like BB and me or more/less). In this case please give me more options than what you wish to do as there might be more people wishing to do the same thing so I have we have to decide who makes what.
As you see the next step in the efficiency and development process is just around the corner but some motivation and work is need again to reach it.
Thanks a lot,
FE
