Just like its comdoll siblings, AUD/USD soared to new highs versus the dollar early in the trading day, only to give back most of the gains by the time the New York session rolled around. AUD/USD hit a high at 1.0689, but then settled at 1.0621, just 17 pips above its opening price.
News reports that the IMF downgraded Australia’s growth targets for 2012 may have helped the Aussie lose its luster. The IMF now expects Australia to grow by just 3.0% this year, down from the initial estimate of 3.3%. IMF officials cited weakness in the global economy as well as ongoing austerity measures as potential stumbling blocks for the Land Down Under.
No data lined up today, but that doesn’t mean you can take a chill pill and hit the waves early. We’ve got some potential market movers coming out from the U.S. and euro zone, so make sure you read up and do your homework! Good luck trading today mate!
Just like Willow Smith’s hair, AUD/USD got whipped back and forth between the 1.0650 and 1.0600 handles in Friday’s trading. Luckily for the Aussie, negative data came out of the U.S. and helped it end the day with a 38-pip win.
As I mentioned in my USD commentary, the disappointing GDP data from the U.S. sparked a dollar sell-off. With that in mind and given that our economic calendar is still blank for reports from Australia, be sure you keep tabs on the data due to be released for the Aussie’s counterparts.
Make no mistake about it, the Aussie didn’t bring its A-game yesterday! Rather than extending its three-day winning streak by another day, it ended up weakening against the Greenback. This led AUD/USD to fall 50 pips and end the day at 1.0595. What a combo breaker!
The Aussie wasn’t excluded from yesterday’s sell-off as it was ditched along with its fellow comdolls. With the whole world worrying about Greek debt, the markets decided to flock back towards the arms of safe haven assets.
In other news, the Australian reports released just a couple of hours ago seem to be breathing life back into the Aussie.
For one, the NAB business confidence index rose from a reading of 2 to 3 in December. I know it doesn’t really sound like much (Single digits, really??) but this is the index’s highest level in 7 months! It seems business confidence hasn’t been bogged down too much by the European debt crisis, eh? Of course, the RBA’s recent rate-slashing spree might have also helped businesses keep their chins up!
On another note, the private sector credit report for January came in as expected and showed a repeat of last month’s 0.3% increase.
That’s about it for today! As always, keep yo’ eyes on risk sentiment, homies!
That’s two for two! The Aussie scored another win against the dollar yesterday as AUD/USD ended the day 22 pips above its opening price at 1.0617. Can it extend its winning streak to three days?
Err, maybe, I’m not sure. For one, data that came out of Australia earlier weren’t really impressive. The HIA new home sales report for December printed a 4.9% decline and erased the 4.4% growth we saw in November. Meanwhile, the house price index for the same month also dropped by 1.0%, more than the 0.7% decline that analysts had predicted.
There are also talks that the rally in higher yielding currencies might soon come to an end if we don’t hear any positive developments from the euro zone regarding Greece’s debt deal. Yikes!
With that said, be sure to keep tabs on market sentiment, ayt? Keep in mind that the currency usually rallies when risk appetite is up.
Why hello there risk appetite! Fortunately for the Aussie, the market was in a good mood yesterday, helping it rally despite not-so-good economic data. AUD/USD ended the U.S. trading session at 1.0697, a very respectable 80 pips higher from its opening price.
As I mentioned in my other roundups, the bout of risk appetite was caused by positive news out of euro zone. Germany and Portugal was able to hit their targets in their respective bond auctions while rumors went around that a Greek swap deal could happen within the day.
In Australia, economic data was less than impressive. The HIA new home sales report showed a -4.9% figure, opposite the 4.4% growth seen the month before. Meanwhile, Australia’s house price index, which was slated to print only a 0.7% fall, reported a 1.0% decline instead. Then, earlier today, the building approvals showed a 1.0% drop, worse than the 2.1% gain consensus.
The only positive news from the country was its trade balance. It came in with a 1.71 billion AUD surplus, almost 50 billion AUD higher than forecast.
Whether the market’s attraction to risk will remain today or not will completely depend on events in the euro zone and the U.S. If we continue to hear good news, then the Aussie’s rally will probably persist.
What bad economic data? Despite mixed economic reports from Australia, the Aussie bulls surfed the currency waves up and even pushed AUD/USD to the 1.0750 handle before pushing it to its 1.0706 closing price.
As I mentioned yesterday, the Aussie got off to a rocky start as Australia’s building approvals registered a 1.0% drop in December. Good thing the trade balance report surprised to the upside at 1.71 billion AUD!
Let’s see if the Aussie bulls keep up the optimism today. A few coffee cups ago we saw China’s services PMI clock in at 52.9 in January against December’s 56.0 reading. This is probably why AUD/USD dipped below 1.0700 for a while.
No other reports are scheduled today, so make sure you got your eyes peeled for the other reports scheduled for release in the other economies!
Friday was definitely a good day for the Aussie as it managed to steal some pips from the safe haven Greenback. AUD/USD closed the day at 1.0706, 9 pips higher from its opening price. Then, earlier today, AUD/USD rallied again despite a weaker-than-expected retail sales report.
For the rest of the week, Australia’s economic calendar this week presents some high profile events. Tomorrow, at 3:30 pm GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its decision on interest rates. The general consensus of the market is that the the central bank will cut rates to 4.00% from 4.25%. Rate cuts are normally considered bearish for the currency.
Then on Friday, at 1:30 am GMT, the RBA will release its monetary policy statement. It will provide us with some insight on the bank’s view on the economy and inflation. It can also give us clues as to what the bank will do next with regard to interest rates.
Hang in there, brothas! Despite a strong ANZ job ads report, the Aussie pared back some of its gains against the dollar yesterday. AUD/USD even reached an intraday low of 1.0684 before it capped the day 18 pips lower than its open price.
Don’t worry; Australia’s economic reports weren’t that bad anyway. You see, while the retail sales report surprisingly clocked in a 0.1% decrease in December and the AIG construction index only showed a 39.8 reading against its previous 41.0 figure, the ANZ job ads came in at a strong 6.0% growth in January against December’s 0.6% decline.
Today is a big day for the Aussie bulls and bears as the RBA is scheduled to release its interest rate statement at 3:30 am GMT. As Forex Gump pointed out, many are expecting the central bank to cut its rates by 25 basis points for the third month in a row tomorrow. No other report is scheduled for release today, so make sure you pay close attention to this one!
Boy, do I feel bad for all those who shorted the Aussie in anticipation of a rate cut from the RBA! The central bank defied expectations yesterday and in turn made it possible for AUD/USD to rise to its 6-month high. AUD/USD ended the day’s trading 71 pips above its opening price at 1.0800.
According the the RBA statement, it looks like Governor Glenn Stevens and his buds chose to look at the current economic conditions as a glass half full rather than half empty. Despite weaker demand conditions, central bankers focused on the improvements in the U.S. economy and the not-so-slow slowdown in China and their positive effects on the Australian economy. They then left interest rates unchanged at 4.25% when almost everyone was bracing for a 25-basis point rate cut.
Of course, it also helped the Aussie that risk appetite was up in yesterday’s trading thanks to renewed optimism on a Greek debt deal.
Given that we don’t have anything on tap from Australia today, I wonder if there are enough positive vibes left in the market today to fuel the Aussie’s rally. Well, we may just have to keep tabs on market sentiment to find out. Be on your toes!
Unlike its major comdoll buddies, the Aussie managed to contain its losses against the Greenback despite the risk aversion that settled in markets. AUD/USD reached an 11-month high at 1.0845 before settling 1.0792, 8 pips lower than its open price.
No economic report was released from Canada yesterday, but word on the hood is that investors are getting impatient that the European officials will be able to reach a deal in time for Greece to make its payments.
Don’t worry; the Land Down Under won’t be without its economic releases today. A couple of hours ago we saw the country’s NAB quarterly consumer confidence report print at an index reading of 1, which is a bit better than the -3 we saw in the previous quarter. China also contributed to the early morning craziness as its CPI reading showed a 4.5% acceleration in January.
How will these reports factor in the Aussie’s price action in the next couple of hours? Stick around and trade carefully, my friends!
More sideways trading for the Aussie! It just couldn’t get its groove on yesterday as AUD/USD ended the day almost unchanged. After swinging down in the Tokyo session, the pair popped up and rallied in the London and New York sessions. Eventually, it settled at 1.0785, down 7 pips on the day.
Surprisingly enough, the Aussie didn’t really strengthen on yesterday’s improved NAB business confidence report. This is odd considering that not only was the previous quarter’s reading revised up from -4 to -3, but Q4 2011 also managed to score a nice improvement with a reading of 1.
I checked the report out myself and saw that business conditions got better and business confidence picked up across all industries except mining last quarter! Sweet, but apparently not sweet enough!
The only report to be released today is the RBA monetary policy statement. Don’t expect to read anything new in this 70-page report, but it’s a good read if you want key insight on the RBA’s economic views. Check it out at the RBA’s website, it just came out about an hour ago!
It was a bloody, bloody day for the Aussie last Friday. Due to the doubt of the market regarding Greece’s ability to implement its austerity measures, risk aversion was at very high levels. This resulted in a huge 127-pip loss for the Aussie against the safe haven Greenback.
The Aussie was able to recuperate some of its losses early this morning because of some good news though. The home loans report came in better than expected and showed a 2.7% gain. The forecast was for a 1.9% increase only.
There are a couple of economic events lined up for this week, but the most important one is the release of the employment data on Friday. On the up side, the employment data is expected to reveal that 10,900 net jobs.
However, it is also predicted to show that the unemployment rate shot up to 5.3% from 5.2%. The employment report is considered as a major market mover, and better-than-expected figures tend to provide support for the Aussie.
Traders showed some lovin’ for the Aussie yesterday as it gapped up against the Greenback over the weekend and chalked up gains against the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. AUD/USD closed 33 pips above the 1.0700 handle while AUD/JPY landed 26 pips above the 83.00 mark.
Stronger than expected home loans data from the Land Down Under boosted the Australian dollar against its counterparts yesterday, as the report printed a 2.3% increase. This was higher than the predicted 1.9% increase and November’s 1.8% rise, which happened to enjoy an upward revision.
Today, the freshly released NAB business confidence figure also posted an improvement as it climbed from 3 to 4 in January. This suggests that businessmen became more optimistic about Australia’s economic prospects during the month.
Later on, Australia will release its Westpac consumer confidence figure. Recall that the report printed a 2.4% increase for January, signaling a considerable rise in financial confidence, and might be due to post another improvement for the current month. Keep your eyes peeled for the actual release at 11:30 pm GMT!
Another one bites the dust! The Aussie couldn’t escape the overall bearish sentiment yesterday despite printing positive confidence reports. When all was said and done, AUD/USD finished the day 46 pips lower at 1.0687.
Though the NAB business confidence index triggered a mini-rally after it increased from 3 to 4, it couldn’t overcome the market’s bearish sentiment. Likewise, the Westpac consumer sentiment report also printed a nice increase as it followed up last month’s 2.4% rise with a 4.2% increase.
So what’s causing our brothers in Australia to be in higher spirits? I’m guessing the low interest rates (Thanks, RBA!) and the continued growth in China has been helping them regain confidence in the economy.
No heavy reports due from Australia today. In the meantime, keep your eyes on overall risk sentiment and the commodities markets. Gold has been trading steadily in the past few days and it looks like its gearing up for a major move!
Nice try, Aussie bulls! Thanks to positive economic data, the AUD/USD posted gains early yesterday. Unfortunately, risk aversion on a possible Greek default weighed on the pair, dragging it from its 1.0777 intraday high to its 1.0694 closing price.
The stronger-than-expected new motor vehicle sales and MI inflation expectations gave the comdoll a boost early in the Asian session yesterday, but the lack of progress in the Greek debt deal talks made investors wary of buying high-yielding currencies like the Aussie.
Australia’s surprisingly strong employment reports ought to cheer the Aussie bulls up. A couple of coffee cups ago we saw Australia’s unemployment rate print at 5.1% against expectations of a 5.3% figure, while there were an additional 46.3K jobs added in January after 35.6K jobs were lost in December. Not a bad start for the day, eh?
No other report is scheduled for release today, so you can focus your fundamental powers on developments in the Greek debt crisis as well as the top-tier economic reports coming up in the U.S. today.
Good luck with your trades, fellas!
Finally, the Aussie puts up decent numbers! AUD/USD posted its largest gain in a week yesterday as it climbed 59 pips to close at 1.0753. Will it finally resume its long-term uptrend?
Thanks to upbeat employment data and the overall risk rally, the Aussie was able to hang ten on the charts!
A total of 46,300 jobs were added in Australia last month, far more than the 10,500 increase that many had predicted. In turn, this led the unemployment rate, which was already at a lowly 5.3%, to fall even further and hit 5.1%. This level hasn’t been hit since August of last year!
It’s starting to look like the RBA’s recent rate cuts have been doing their magic. With home loans on the rise and the labor market posting nice gains, the central bank may think twice about easing its monetary policy further.
No more reports from Australia today. You know what that means, don’t ya? Shift your attention to the west and see what the U.S. and euro zone have to offer! Good luck and may the pips be with you!
Even with risk appetite boosting other higher yielding currencies, the Australian dollar couldn’t gain any traction last Friday, and was actually one of the day’s biggest losers. AUD/USD crashed from its highs at 1.0800 to finish at 1.0717, 39 pips below its opening price.
It seems that the Aussie is having trouble setting new highs above the psychological 1.0800. Could we see a reversal in the Aussie soon?
Don’t expect much movement in Aussie trading today, as no hard data is set for release. Watch out tomorrow though, as the minutes of the latest RBA meeting will be released at 12:30 am GMT. This will give us some insight as to why the RBA kept rates at 4.25%, as well as its outlook for the Australian economy for the rest of the year.
The Aussie gapped up against the Greenback over the weekend but this void was quickly filled as AUD/USD traded down for the rest of the day. The pair opened at 1.0787, dipped to a low of 1.0740, before closing at 1.0751. AUD/JPY also had its share of losses as it closed 14 pips down from its 85.73 open price.
The Australian dollar wasn’t able to participate in the risk rallies yesterday as Australia didn’t release any economic data. Today, however, could be a different story as traders await the release of the most recent RBA meeting minutes and a speech by RBA Governor Stevens. Both the minutes and the speech could shed light on why the central bank decided to keep rates on hold at 4.25% during their latest policy decision amidst the downturn in the Australian economy and the worsening euro zone debt situation.
Also due today are Australia’s CB leading index and MI leading index at 11:00 pm GMT. Recall that both these indices posted slight declines for November, but if they show rebounds for January, the Aussie might be able to stay afloat.
Aussie going down under! The Australian dollar was one of the biggest losers yesterday, as it stumbled down the charts throughout the day. AUD/USD closed 83 pips lower on the day to finish at 1.0667. Will the bears send the pair below last week’s lows?
Interestingly, minutes from the latest MPC meeting indicated that the dudes and dudettes over at the RBA are in no rush to cut the central bank’s base line interest rates, which currently sit at 4.25%. Normally, such less dovish comments would have been a sign for the bulls to break out the champagne and start celebrating. Instead, we saw the complete opposite, as the Australian dollar melted down the charts!
What gives?
Apparently, it was comments by new RBA member Heather Ridout that rocked the Aussie. According to Ms. Ridout, the Australian dollar’s appreciation was “jarring” for the economy and could hurt it going forward. These concerns weighed down on the Aussie, making it on the biggest losers yesterday.
Nothing on tap today but as I always say, be careful, as risk sentiment can always change on a dime! You never know what might drive the markets into a frenzy!
The Aussie still didn’t get any lovin’ yesterday as it scored its third straight loss to the dollar. After opening at 1.0667, AUD/USD traded lower and closed the day 29 pips lower at 1.0638.
As if investors didn’t get enough jitters from the not-so-impressive Greek debt deal, political tensions also rose in Australia yesterday. Ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced his resignation as foreign minister and questioned his party, the Labor Party, who their best bet is for the Prime Minister post in the 2013 elections. The news might have gotten a few market participants panicking at the possibility of the Labor Party replacing current Prime Minister Julia Gillard with someone else.
Our forex calendar doesn’t have anything from The Land Down Under today, so it might be a good idea to keep an ear out for updates regarding the political situation in the country. Keep in mind that political tension isn’t good for any currency. And so, if the spat continues, we could see the Aussie continue to trade lower in today’s trading.