Thanks to the overall optimism of the market from better-than-expected economic reports yesterday, the Aussie was finally able to cut its 3-day losing streak to an end and mark a winning day. AUD/USD closed the U.S. trading session 1.0703, a respectable 68 pips higher from its opening price that day.
No news reports scheduled fro release today in Australia so don’t expect their currency to show a lot of volatility. If anything, it is likely that we’ll see the AUD/USD pair hold its 1.0800-1.0600 range that it has been trading in since the beginning of the month.
The Aussie was one of the unlucky few which gave up pips to the dollar on Friday. It did relatively well during the Tokyo and London sessions with AUD/USD trading above 1.0700. However, just before the day closed, it slipped and ended the day 9 pips below its opening price at 1.0694.
Perhaps RBA Governor Glenn Stevens’ remark about the recent strength in the Aussie being “odd” kept investors from buying the currency. You see, some analysts took it as a sign that the central bank is open to intervention. Yikes!
But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It seems like the RBA is still happy with current economic conditions which could be enough to keep them from intervening. Let’s see if the roster of economic data we have on tap this week will affirm the bank’s optimism.
On Wednesday, the HIA new home sales and retail sales reports will be on tap. Come Thursday, we’ll get dibs on the building approvals and private capital expenditure reports.
Better-than-expected figures will probably be bullish for the currency, so watch out!
Despite the overall strength of the dollar and the yen yesterday, the Aussie was able to remain afloat. It closed the day at 1.0764, 10 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian session.
It appears that the Aussie was able to held on due to a statement made by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens. He said that the monetary policy of the RBA was right at the moment, which crushed any speculation of currency intervention or further rate cuts. He cited that growth was close to the overall trend, and that inflation would probably be around their target for the next year or two.
No major news reports scheduled for release today, but at 12:30 am GMT tomorrow, expect to see the country’s retail sales report. It is a major market mover, so expect a lot of volatility once the report is released. The report is slated to show a 0.3% increase, opposite the 0.1% decline seen the month prior.
Relatively quiet day from the Aussie, as it pretty much traded within its average true range. AUD/USD topped out at 1.0788 and eventually closed at 1.0771, up 17 pips from its opening price on the day.
It looks like we’re in for an action-packed day in the market, with the Aussie already off to a quick start as some reports were released earlier today.
Retail sales figures came in as expected, printing a 0.3% increase over the past month, which was a nice improvement from the 0.1% decline we saw the previous month.
However, construction seems to have tapered off in the past quarter, as work done dropped by 4.6%. This was way worse than the -0.8% projection, and a major reversal from the 11.7% increase during the third quarter. It’ll be interesting to see whether this was just a one quarter aberration or the beginning of a new trend.
No biggies left for today but make sure you keep an eye out for any news from the other majors. Good luck trading today mates!
Not today, bulls! After hibernating for what seemed like an eternity, the Aussie bears finally came out of their caves yesterday. AUD/USD was sold-off heavily late in the U.S. trading session, which resulted in a 44-pip defeat.
The Aussie’s losses could be attributed mainly to the sharp contrast between the results of the U.S. and Australian economic data. While the Chicago PMI and GDP report in the U.S. both beat market forecast, the report on construction work done and private sector credit in Australia were worse than expected. To be specific, construction work fell 4.6% versus the 0.8% decline initially expected while private sector credit only increased 0.2% versus the 0.3% rise consensus.
The Aussie bears received another boost earlier today as both the building approvals report and private capital expenditure failed to meet expectations. Building approvals only rose 0.9% while private capital expenditure declined by 0.3%.
No major news releases left on Australia’s economic calendar but that doesn’t mean that there will be no movement today! There are a bunch of tier 1 data scheduled to publish in the U.S. which could indirectly have an effect on the Aussie’s price action.
Despite the worse-than-expected results from the building approvals and private capital expenditure reports released early yesterday, the Aussie was able to turn it around in the latter sessions as risk appetite improved slightly. AUD/USD rose 69 pips to finish at 1.0797. Will it finally close above the key 1.0800 mark today?
No hard data schedule for release later today, so don’t be surprised if we see some choppy trading. Just be sure to keep an eye out during the London trading session for any developments on the Greek debt deal drama, as it could swing risk sentiment in either direction.
Unlike Justin Beiber who had a PDA-filled day, the Aussie didn’t get any lovin’ from traders in Friday’s trading. AUD/USD fell from an intraday high of 1.0818 to close the day at 1.0732, 65 pips below its opening price.
We didn’t have any economic reports released from Australia on Friday which leads me to think that the currency fell victim to market sentiment. However, I’m not sure if the reports we got for the currency earlier will give the Aussie a boost either.
According to AIG, businesses in the service sector don’t see business conditions expanding in the near future with the AIG Services Index for February falling below the 50.0 baseline reading at 46.7 from 51.9 in January. The ANZ Job Advertisements report for the same month also came in below its January figure, coming in at 3.3% versus the 7.5% growth we saw the month prior.
On top of that, it was reported that company operating profits for Q4 2011 declined by 6.5%. Analysts were expecting a modest growth of 0.2% in the value of profits earned by corporations during the quarter to follow the 4.7% increase we saw in Q3 2011. Yikes!
But don’t fret just yet. Who knows, risk appetite might pick up in today’s trading and spark a rally in the Aussie! Be sure to keep tabs on market sentiment, ayt?
Don’t look now, but the Aussie just registered another losing day against the Greenback! AUD/USD fell almost steadily yesterday and even reached a low of 1.0656 before leveling off with a 69-pip loss at 1.0669. Interestingly enough, the weakness wasn’t just caused by China’s weak GDP forecasts.
Sure, China’s surprisingly weak GDP forecasts could’ve weighed on the Aussie. China is Australia’s largest trading partner after all. But it also didn’t help the comdoll that Australia printed weaker-than-expected economic reports.
The ANZ job ads data only showed a 3.3% gain in February, which is a lot weaker than the 7.5% gain we saw in January. So much for the strong employment numbers that Australian officials have been talking about!
The quarterly company operating profits also failed to impress investors as it printed a 6.5% decline when analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase.
It looks like the Aussie’s fate isn’t going to change anytime soon as Australia’s current account released a few minutes ago also missed expectations at a deficit of 8.4 billion AUD when market geeks were only pricing in a deficit of 8.0 billion AUD.
Let’s see if the RBA has something to say about all these reports. At 3:30 am GMT today the central bank will hand out its interest rate decision. While no one really expects any change from its current 4.25% cash rate, traders will watch for any dovish or hawkish rhetoric that might influence the Aussie’s price action. Don’t even think of missing it!
The Aussie took another beating from the safe-haven currencies yesterday as it ended much lower against the Greenback and the Japanese yen. AUD/USD opened at 1.0670 then closed more than a hundred pips lower at 1.0558 while AUD/JPY dipped to the 85.00 area. Will the Aussie continue to go down under today?
Risk aversion from resurfacing concerns about a potential Greek credit default, combined with a not so upbeat RBA statement, pushed Aussie pairs down the charts yesterday. It turns that, although RBA Governor Glenn Stevens rehashed most of his speech from their previous rate statement, the central bank appeared open to rate cuts in case the situation in the euro zone worsens. Policymakers emphasized that they would continue to monitor the economic situation in Australia for any downturn in demand, which could force them to adjust monetary policy accordingly.
Fresh off the press is Australia’s GDP report, which failed to meet expectations. The GDP reading for the fourth quarter came in at 0.4% instead of the projected 0.7% reading while the previous quarter’s figure was revised from 1.0% to 0.8%. Talk about a double whammy, huh?
There aren’t any reports due from Australia for the rest of the day so make sure you keep close tabs on market sentiment, particularly on what’s going on in Greece, to figure out where the Aussie pairs could be headed. Good luck!
Despite the weaker-than-expected GDP report, AUD/USD managed to post a small gain yesterday. AUD/USD closed the day at 1.0581, a decent 23-pip gain from its opening price.
The GDP report for the final quarter of 2011 showed that the economy only expanded 0.4%. The market was anticipating a 0.7% growth rate.
Earlier today, the Aussie gave up its gains though as its employment situation report failed to meet expectations. It showed that 15,400 people (net) lost jobs last month, opposite the 5,100 (net) gain initially predicted. The unemployment rate also shared the same disappointing tone as it rose to 5.2% from 5.1%.
The next economic report from Australia that you need to keep an eye out for is its Trade Balance. It will be released at 12:30 am GMT tomorrow and is slated to show a 1.53 billion AUD surplus.
Going strong, eh? The Aussie was able to extend its winning streak for yet another day as it closed higher against the Greenback and the Japanese yen yesterday. AUD/USD reached a high of 1.0670 then closed at 1.0643 while AUD/JPY ended 16 pips shy of the 87.00 mark.
Australia released weaker than expected jobs data for February as the employment change report showed a 15.4K decrease in hiring instead of the projected 5.1K increase. The February figure was also significantly weaker than January’s 46.2K increase in employment. This was enough to bring Australia’s jobless rate up from 5.1% to 5.2% for the month.
Although this report sparked concerns about a potential RBA rate cut as the Land Down Under struggles with an economic slowdown, this downbeat sentiment was quickly overshadowed by optimism surrounding the Greek PSI announcement. While some traders scrambled to close their short positions prior to the event, others were hopeful that Greece would reach its target participation rate of 90% and avoid a default.
But will this be enough to keep the Aussie afloat today? Australia just released another set of poor figures as its trade balance fell short of expectations and showed a 0.67 billion AUD deficit for January, worse than the predicted 1.52 billion AUD surplus. To top it off, the previous month’s figure was revised from a surplus of 1.71 billion to 1.33 billion AUD. Now that can’t be too good.
And the unlucky streak for the Aussie doesn’t end there! China just announced that its yearly CPI also missed expectations as it landed at 3.2%, below the forecast of 3.5%. Could this be a sign that the Asian giant is experiencing a downturn as well, which could weigh on its trade partners like Australia?
No other reports are due from Australia today so these recently released figures could rain on the Australian dollar’s parade. Still, keep an eye out for the upcoming NFP report from the U.S. since it could be the big market mover for the day. Make sure you read up on what Forex Gump thinks we can expect from the February NFP!
Much like everything else, the Aussie was wiped out by the Greenback’s strong rally last Friday. AUD/USD completely undid its progress from Thursday as it closed 72 pips lower at 1.0571.
Of course, it didn’t help the Aussie’s cause that its lone report for the day, the trade balance report, came in well below expectations. For the first time in 11 months, it posted a trade deficit as exports plunged 8%!
To put things into perspective, from a surplus of 1.33 billion USD, Australia’s trade dipped to a deficit of 0.67 billion USD! Ouch! It seems like the slowdown in China, one of Australia’s largest trading partners, is starting to show its effects on Australian trade already!
The only red flag this week is the home loans report due tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT. Survey says we’ll likely see home loans stay flat for the month of January, following the 2.3% increase in December. But until that report comes out, I suggest y’all trade based on overall market sentiment. Good luck and good trading, homies!
When China’s economy shows any weakness you just know that Aussie traders will have a thing or two to say about it! Worse-than-expected data from both China dragged AUD/USD to its 1.0474 intraday low, and it wasn’t until the U.S. session that the pair leveled off to end the day at 1.0516.
China’s trade data came in at its weakest figure a couple of days ago. Imports grew by a massive 39.6% against expectations of only a 27% growth, while exports only came in at 18.4%, a bit more than half of what analysts were expecting. Since China is Australia’s largest trading partner, any hiccup in China’s trade data could drag on the high-yielding Aussie.
Meanwhile, Australia showed its own problems when, just a couple of hours ago, it printed a 1.2% decline on its home loans figures for the month of January. Market players had expected a 0.5% decline despite a 2.1% growth in December.
The NAB business confidence in the Land Down Under could also weigh on the Aussie, as it registered a reading of 1 against its reading of 4 in January.
Let’s hope that the Westpac consumer sentiment coming out at 11:30 pm GMT can provide support for the comdoll! The data showed a 4.2% growth for the month of February, but a higher figure could provide relief for the Aussie bulls.
Up, down, up, down, up! That pretty much sums up AUD/USD action yesterday! The pair stayed in a steady range between 1.0550 and 1.0500 yesterday as the Aussie and the Greenback fought over control of the market. In the end, the pair closed 37 pips higher at 1.0553.
Yesterday’s results were quite surprising considering the reports Australia released early in the day were worse than expected. Home loans decrease 1.2% in January, which is well below the forecasted 0.5% decline. Meanwhile, the NAB business confidence index declined from 4 to 1 last month. Will this push the RBA to revisit its strategy of easing monetary policy soon? Only time will tell!
Thankfully, the Aussie was able to pull off a last-minute rally late in the New York session as risk appetite improved and spurred demand for high-yielding assets.
No major reports coming out of Australia today, so in the meantime, I suggest you monitor the commoditiesfor AUD/USD direction. Remember, where the commodities go, the Aussie usually follows!
Wiped out! That’s what happened to the Aussie yesterday! Thanks to another impressive rally by the U.S. dollar, AUD/USD took a dip in the deep end, falling nearly 100 pips to finish at 1.0454.
The Australian dollar has taken a hit over the past week or so, as gold is also slipping down the charts. At this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Aussie trading at parity next week!
No data lined up for the rest of the week, but doesn’t mean you can just chill out. We’ve got tons of data coming out from other countries so make sure you read up!
The Aussie got back up on its feet yesterday as it recovered some of its recent losses against the Greenback. AUD/USD closed 72 pips up from its 1.0453 open price, after spiking to a high of 1.0555. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY continued its ascent as it closed 4 pips shy of the 88.00 handle.
Australia’s MI inflation expectations figure edged slightly higher for February as the reading climbed from 2.5% to 2.7% for the month. Since expectations of future inflation tend to manifest into reality, we might see increased inflationary pressures for the Land Down Under in the coming months.
New motor vehicle sales, on the other hand, didn’t show bright prospects for Australia as it stayed flat in February. This was significantly worse than the predicted 2.2% increase for the month and also much weaker than the 1.2% rise seen last January. Despite that, both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY managed to post gains as risk appetite returned to the markets.
Australia won’t be releasing any reports today, which means that the Aussie could be at the mercy of risk sentiment yet again. Stay on your toes!
Make that back-to-back for the Aussie! For the second day in a row, the Aussie bulls were out in full force, helping AUD/USD rise 64 pips to close at 1.0590.
We saw both equities and commodities push higher to end the week, helping the Aussie gain some traction as well. As long as this short term trend continues, we should see some resilience in the Australian dollar as well.
Looking ahead, we don’t really have any hard data coming out from the Land Down Under, but keep an eye out for the RBA meeting minutes which will be released tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT. This should provide some insight as to what direction RBA officials plan to take monetary policy and could cause some volatility in the markets.
And just when dollar bulls thought they were gonna start the week off with a win, driving AUD/USD down to a low of 1.0558, the Aussie bulls stepped up their game to end the day 13 pips above its opening price at 1.0608. Boo yeah!
It looks like the pick up in risk appetite allowed the Aussie to extend its gains against the dollar. However, I doubt if the positive vibes from yesterday’s trading will be enough to support the currency following the minutes of RBA Statement.
It states that the central bank is still worried about Europe but has acknowledged that the risk is lesser. Although interest rates were left unchanged at 4.25% during the March 6 meeting, the minutes reflect the willingness of central bankers to cut rates if they see that the economy needs it. Yikes!
The minutes seem dovish but from what I’ve read, it seems that a lot of market participants already saw that coming. Let’s see if the initial downward move on the Aussie will fade or if it’s a start of a reversal. Be careful!
Not this time, Aussie! Though yesterday’s monetary policy minutes seemed a bit more optimistic, the Aussie couldn’t defy gravity as it was weighed down by concerns on Chinese growth. As a result, AUD/USD slipped 127 pips to 1.0481.
The RBA seemed pleased with the global economy’s performance last month, and they particularly liked the recent developments aimed at stemming the European debt crisis. If you’ll recall, the European debt crisis has been brought up several times in previous meetings, and members of the central bank have expressed a lot of concern about it. Although Australian policymakers recognize that there are still major downside risks present, they feel that a major crisis has been avoided. With things finally settling down in Europe, the RBA must be feeling very relieved!
Meanwhile, on the domestic front, they noted healthy investments and improved consumer confidence. But they did sound a bit worried about industries that are exposed to the Aussie’s high exchange rate, such as manufacturing and tourism. Hmm… It kind of makes you wonder if these concerns are enough to push the RBA to intervene in the same way the BOJ and SNB have been working to keep their currencies from rising, eh?
Nothing big coming from Australia today. In the meantime, keep your eyes on the U.S. dollar, as the market’s sentiment for the Greenback could direct traffic on AUD/USD today.
Geronimo! AUD/USD traded above the 1.0500 handle briefly before plunging to an intraday low of 1.0421. The Aussie managed to pare some of its losses to end the day at 1.0459, 22 pips below its opening price.
We didn’t get any economic report from Australia yesterday which only left the Aussie vulnerable to concerns about China. Remember that China is one of Australia’s major trading partners and news about its growth slowing down have gotten investors worried about the Australian economy as well.
Our forex calendar is blank for reports for the Aussie today. With that said, we’ll probably see the currency move according to the beat of market sentiment. If risk aversion lingers, it could extend its losses. However, if risk appetite picks up, we could see it rally against the dollar. Be on your toes!