Unless you’re a range trader, you probably despised how AUD/USD moved last Friday. The pair’s priect action was completely directionless as it traded within a wide range. It found support at .9230 and resistance just below .9300.
No important piece of data was released last Friday, but this week, we’ve got a few economic catalysts to look forward to.
Tomorrow, at 1:30 am GMT, the country’s building approvals report will be published. It’s projected to show a 2.2% increase after last month’s 1.1% decline. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will also be speaking. As the head of the RBA, traders normally listen to what he has to say as he could drop clues about the direction of monetary policy.
On Friday, await the release of the Producer Price Index. It’s only released quarterly, so it’s pretty significant. The forecast is for a 0.5% increase, up from last quarter’s 0.3% rise.
The Aussie was one of the biggest losers against the Greenback yesterday after AUD/USD closed 53 pips lower than its open price. And that’s with no data out from Australia!
The Land Down Under didn’t release any economic news yesterday, but profit-taking ahead of the major reports this week, overall risk aversion, and expectations of a dovish speech by RBA’s Stevens weighed on the comdoll.
Did the investors have the right to be concerned? At 1:30 am GMT Australia will release its building approvals data, which is expected to show a 2.2% gain after declining by 1.1% last month. Then, at around 3:00 am GMT, RBA’s Stevens is slated to make a speech in Sydney. Tons of market players are expecting the central banker to lay the ground for next week’s interest rate decision, so y’all better listen closely for any clues on the RBA’s plans!
Boy, did the Aussie get hit hard! No thanks to RBA Governor Stevens’ dovish words yesterday, the Aussie sank even lower on the charts. AUD/USD dropped from .9206 to finish the day at .9063. What the heck did he say?
The RBA head honcho reiterated his view that the inflation outlook in the country still has room for further easing. Consequently, this fueled speculations of further rate cuts from the central bank and caused the Aussie to tank.
It also didn’t help that the building approvals report for June printed at -6.9% versus the 2.2% forecast. Yikes!
Today, no major economic event is scheduled from the Land Down Under. It may be a good idea for you to keep tabs on the top-tier events that are scheduled from the U.S. as they will most likely cause volatility on the charts.
Rough times to be an Aussie bull right now! Not even relative dollar weakness could buck the Australian dollar’s slide down the charts! AUD/USD broke through key support levels and traded as low as .8937 before finally settling at .8989, down 77 pips from its opening price.
We didn’t receive any data from Australia yesterday, so it appears that sentiment towards the Aussie is still down. Remember, RBA Governor Stevens hinted at a possibility of future rate cuts down the road and this is currently weighing down the AUD.
Can the currency from Down Under get some support when tomorrow’s PPI report is released at 1:30 am GMT? Expectations are that producers paid 0.5% more for raw materials last month. Keep in mind that this inflation figure is reflective of the prices that producers pay for their raw materials. If inflation remains subdued and producers are paying less, then they won’t have to pass on prices to consumers, which brings down consumer inflation as well.
What does that mean? Well, if inflation remains soft on the consumer level as well, then it means the economy isn’t heating up yet, which gives the RBA more room to lower rates in order to stimulate the economy. In turn, this lessens demand for the Aussie, causing it to fall further.
That said, don’t sleep on tomorrow’s PPI report, as it could prove to be a market mover!
Down but not out! The Australian dollar put up a strong fight against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD struggled to stay above the .8900 handle. AUD/JPY, on the other hand, was able to score a few gains when it tapped the 89.00 mark.
The main reason for the Aussie’s resilience yesterday was China’s official manufacturing PMI, which printed better than expected results and showed that the industry still expanded for the month. The actual figure climbed from 50.1 to 50.3 instead of falling to 49.8, contrary to the HSBC manufacturing PMI figures that showed a deeper contraction for July. This goes to show that bigger manufacturing companies in China were still able to expand in the past month while the smaller firms didn’t do so well.
Australia’s quarterly PPI figures are up for release today and it is expected to show a 0.5% increase in producer prices. A strong reading would mean that inflation could remain strong in the Land Down Under, which might be positive for the Aussie. If you’re trading AUD/USD, make sure you watch out for the U.S. NFP release in today’s U.S. session, too!
Boo hoo, it looks like the Aussie didn’t get invited to the NFP party! While the other major currencies were taking advantage of dollar weakness, AUD/USD continued to slump below the .8900 major psychological level while AUD/JPY tumbled to the 88.00 handle.
Australia’s quarterly PPI report turned out to be a huge disappointment, as it showed a mere 0.1% uptick in producer prices instead of the estimated 0.5% increase. This confirm’s the RBA’s view that weak inflation gives them room to implement another rate cut if necessary. The prospect of an interest rate cut weighed on the Aussie for the rest of the day, preventing the currency from catching a piece of the dollar selloff.
Earlier today, Australia reported a decline in its AIG services index from 41.5 to 39.4, reflecting a deeper industry contraction for July. Later on, the retail sales figure for July will be released and it’s expected to print a 0.4% increase for June. Take note though, that a lower than expected reading could worsen the ongoing Aussie selloff.
Australia’s trade balance and ANZ job advertisements data are up for release tomorrow, but the bigger market mover could be the RBA interest rate decision. Remember that Stevens recently hinted that another rate cut could be in the cards this year as the Australian economy continues to weaken, although most analysts don’t think he’ll pull the trigger by tomorrow.
The next big event for the Aussie is the employment report release on Thursday, which could show that the Australian economy added only 6.2K jobs for July. This is weaker than the June figure of 10.3K and is expected to bring the jobless rate up from 5.7% to 5.8%.
The fireworks won’t end on Friday, as China is set to release its CPI figures and a few more medium-tier data, such as the PPI and retail sales figures. Since China is one of the top importers of raw materials from Australia, bleak Chinese economic figures could spell lower demand for Australia’s products so don’t forget to keep close tabs on those releases as well!
The Aussie was all over the charts yesterday as weak Australian data got mixed in with reactions to a major US report. AUD/USD touched an intraday low 77 pips below its open price before capping the day with a 3-pip win while AUD/JPY, GBP/AUD, and EUR/AUD all showed Aussie weakness.
With Australia’s retail sales coming in at 0.0% yesterday instead of the expected 0.4% growth, could you really blame the Aussie bears for stepping up? Fortunately for AUD/USD bulls, many traders weren’t so excited about the Greenback either. As it turned out, a mixed ISM non-manufacturing report highlighted the lack of strength in the US jobs sector.
Today is a big day for the dollar bulls and bears as we’ll not only see Australia’s trade balance, ANZ job ads, and quarterly house price index at 1:30 am GMT, but we’ll also hear from the RBA at 4:30 am GMT. While many aren’t expecting changes from the central bank’s current policies, RBA’s Stevens could still easily spook the comdoll bulls by hinting at a rate cut in the near future.
Don’t even think of missing these potential big hitters!
Did the Aussie experience the good ol’ “sell the rumor, buy the news” phenomenon? It appears it did as the currency gained despite the RBA’s rate cut. If you look at the Aussie’s price action, you’d see that the Aussie had been selling off heavily prior the event and then suddenly rose when the actual rate cut was announced. AUD/USD is currently trading at .8958, more than 100 pips higher from its lowest level this week.
As widely expected, the RBA slashed rates to 2.50% from 2.75%. According to the central bank, it cut rates to spur activity in the economy. It also found the Aussie “high” and would want to bring it down a little more to help Australia’s export industry.
Earlier today, the Aussie received good news in the form of the Home Loans report. It showed a growth of 2.7% in the number of new loans granted, which was notably higher than the 2.2% increase the market had initially priced in. Increasing home loans is normally seen as good for the domestic economy and the Aussie as it means that there is a healthy demand in the housing market.
The only major report due today is Australia’s labor report. It’s scheduled to publish at 1:30 am GMT. It’s expected to show that 6,200 jobs were added and that the employment rate increased to 5.8% from 5.7%.
After selling off strongly in the Tokyo session, dropping to an intraday low of .8919, AUD/USD surged higher during the New York session. In fact, the rally in the Aussie was more than enough to erase its earlier losses to close the day with a 6-pip gain at .8992. What a comeback!
It would seem that the Aussie got lucky when we saw dollar weakness during the latter part of yesterday’s trading. The question is, will Lady Luck still be on its side today?
As Forex Gump said in his Piponomics article, the Australian jobs report could prove to be a boon or a bane to the comdoll. Released earlier, statistics reveal that instead of adding 6,200 jobs during the month, there were actually 10,200 jobs lost! To top it off, the previous reading was revised lower to 9,300 after initially being reported at 10,300.
On a more positive note though, Australia’s unemployment rate trickled lower from 5.8% to 5.7%.
What do you think? Will the mixed jobs data boost the AUD or help it rally?
Aussie, Aussie, oi, oi, oi! There was just no stopping the comdoll from extending its gains in yesterday’s trading. AUD/USD finished higher for the fourth consecutive day at .9110 from its opening price of .8991.
The Aussie benefited from the Chinese trade balance report yesterday which showed that both imports and exports rose in July. Keep in mind that China is Australia’s largest trading partner and so, positive data from China almost always has a positive effect on the Aussie.
I wonder if the Aussie will be able to extend its rally. Earlier today, the Chinese CPI report came in lower than expected at 2.7% versus the 2.8% forecast. This could have a bullish effect on the currency since the figure could give the PBOC (China’s central bank) one more reason to pump in more liquidity in the economy since inflation ain’t that high.
That’s just my two cents though. What’s your take?
The Aussie completed its sweep of the Greenback as it registered a fifth straight win to end the week. AUD/USD started the day at .9111 and climbed straight to .9191 without ever looking back.
The Australian currency received a boost early in the day with the release of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes and lower-than-expected Chinese CPI data, and it seems that set the tone for the rest of the day.
But will the markets react as bullishly for the comdoll this week? We’ll just have to wait and see!
If you’re looking for reports to trade, we’ll get our first taste of Australian data tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT as the NAB Business Confidence index is set to come out. The rest of the week looks relatively light as we only have a few tier 2 events on tap from the Land Down Under. So in the meantime, you might want to set your eyes to the west, where the U.S. has some heavy reports on the calendar.
Not today, boys! The Aussie bulls’ good times ended yesterday as AUD/USD registered a 69-pip loss despite a lack of data from the Land Down Under. What the heck happened?!
Well, it seems that traders were perfectly willing to use Australia’s weak economic prospects to play the overall Greenback strength seen yesterday. As I mentioned in my USD update, renewed speculations of a Fed taper in September supported demand for the U.S. dollar.
Too bad that Australia’s NAB business confidence report released a few minutes ago revealed more weaknesses! The report showed a -3 reading, an eight-month optimism low, when analysts had been expecting it to come at 0. Will this spell more intraday losses for the Aussie?
You win some, you lose some. Even though AUD/USD suffered a massive selloff in yesterday’s trading, AUD/JPY managed to score some gains and climb to a high of 89.64. Will the Aussie be able to hold on to its gains today?
Data from Australia was weaker than expected, as the NAB business confidence figure slipped from 0 to -3. This means that Australian businessmen are expecting conditions to worsen in the coming months, as the index fell to its 8-month low. This hints at a lower level of business spending and investment later on, which could be negative for economic growth.
The Westpac consumer sentiment index released earlier today printed a 3.5% improvement for August, enough to offset the 0.1% drop in confidence last month. Also due today is the quarterly wage price index, which is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
The Aussie continued its ascent yesterday, rallying slightly higher versus the Greenback. AUD/USD started the day at .9110, rose as high as .9160, before settling at the end of the U.S. trading session at .9139.
No major data was released in Australia yesterday but earlier today, the Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Expectation survey was released. It reported that consumers expect the prices of goods and services to rise about 2.3% in the next 12 months. This was slightly lower than the month prior’s 2.6% expectation.
Australia’s economic sky is clear today as no news report is scheduled to come out. For now, keep tabs on events taking place in other major economies, as they will probably be the ones that will provide direction for the Aussie. Good luck trading today forex freaks.
Talk about a topsy-turvy day! AUD/USD got a major wipeout just below .9200, dropping all the way down to .9258. But the Aussie managed to recover, paring its losses for the day and closing a pip above its opening price at .9139.
No major reports were released from Australia yesterday. This might have left the comdoll vulnerable to market sentiment. Luckily for it, the dollar fell across the board during the New York session and allowed it to extend its rally.
We’ll probably see the Aussie trade according to market sentiment today since there are no reports due from the Land Down Under. Make sure you gauge the market’s mood before you pull the trigger on any AUD trade, ayt?
The Aussie continued its rampage versus the Greenback last Friday as traders took in some disappointing economic reports from the U.S. The AUD/USD pair began the day at .9139 but found itself at .9183 by the end of the U.S. trading session.
In the U.S., the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey failed to meet forecast by a big margin. It published a reading of 80.0, which was considerably lower than both forecast (85.6) and the month prior’s (85.1) readings.
Australia’s forex cupboard is pretty clean this week as only the RBA’s monetary policy meeting minutes is due. It’s scheduled to come out tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT. It will provide us with a more in-depth look into the economic conditions that influenced the policymakers’ decision on monetary policy.
AUD/USD was a bloodbath to start the week as the pair closed 69 pips lower at .9114. Will today’s RBA monetary policy meeting minutes reverse the comdoll’s fortune?
Heads up, forex fans! One of the day’s biggest releases is coming out in a few minutes. At 1:30 am GMT, the central bank will publish the minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting, and word on the street is that it has a lot of room for dovishness.
Remember, the RBA announced a 0.25% rate cut in rate decision earlier this month. Plus, we know that with the country printing unimpressive results in its recent economic reports, the central bank is worried about the growth outlook for Australia. And let’s not forget, policymakers have been very vocal about the Aussie’s current trading levels as well.
That being said, the odds seem stacked for another selloff in the Aussie if the RBA reiterates these points. On the other hand, the Aussie might just find support from the markets if the minutes turn out less pessimistic than expected.
Geronimooo! The Aussie took a dive on the charts yesterday, no thanks to the dovsih RBA meeting minutes. AUD/USD broke support at .9100 immediately after the release, dropping to an intraday low of .9027, before closing the day with a 29-pip loss at .9085.
The minutes of the most recent RBA meeting, when the central bank cut rates, showed that the central bank is still leaning towards further easing. It cited weakness both in the domestic and global economies. But on the slightly bright side of things, the tone didn’t imply that the RBA is in any rush to cut rates.
Only the CB leading index will be released at 12:00 am GMT later. A reading higher than the 0.0% figure we saw for July will probably provide the Aussie with some support as it would indicate optimism. Make sure you keep it in mind if you plan on trading the comdoll!
The Aussie suffered a bitter defeat yesterday as it declined for the third straight day versus the Greenback. AUD/USD began the day at .9085, and then closed the day at its lowest level in almost two weeks at .8980.
Developments in the U.S. caused the Aussie to fall. First, the existing home sales came in better than expected as it printed an annualized reading of 5.39 million units. The forecast was only 5.15 million units.
Second was the FOMC meeting minutes. It revealed that most of the policymakers in the Fed still wanted to taper before the year ends, and only a few were considering waiting for more economic data before making a final decision.
No data on Australia’s economic calendar today, so the Aussie will most likely be driven by economic data from other major economies like the U.S. and the euro zone.
After three days of sliding down the charts, the Aussie was finally able to come up with a victory. AUD/USD rose 32 pips to finish just above the .9000 handle.
It seems as though the markets ignored the 0.2% decline in the CB leading index. They were much more focused on the better-than-expected HSBC Chinese flash manufacturing PMI! The index rose from 47.7 to 50.1 in August, indicating a surprise expansion in China’s manufacturing industry. Market watchers typically pay more attention to this study than the government’s own report because its generally viewed as more independent and reliable.
Nothing on tap from Australia today, but keep in mind that the Jackson Hole Symposium is ongoing, so we may see a few curve balls before the weekend. Good luck and happy trading!