If you are a range trader, then you would’ve loved AUD/USD’s price action last Friday. The pair simply moved within an 80-pip horizontal channel the entire day, finding a bottom at .8970 and a top at .9050. It began the Asian session at .9011 and closed the day only 19 pips higher at .9030.
The small gain posted was the result of the very weak new home sales report from the U.S. It showed that the annualized number of new homes sold was at 394,000, which was significantly lower than the 487,000 the market had initially anticipated. Moreover, the month prior’s figure of 455,000 was revised down to 497,000.
There is only one tier 1 report on Australia’s forex calendar today, and it’s the Private Capital Expenditure report for the month of June. It’s scheduled to be released on Thursday, at 1:30 pm GMT, and it is projected to show a 0.2% increase.
The Aussie landed firmly in the bears’ lair yesterday despite the lack of reports from Australia. AUD/USD lost 22 pips while GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD jumped by at least 50 pips. What’s up with that?!
As I mentioned in my JPY review, overall risk aversion in the markets kept traders from pushing up high-yielding currencies like the Aussie. Of course, it also didn’t help that we haven’t been seeing glowing economic releases from the Land Down Under lately.
Australia isn’t due to release any reports again today, so you might want to keep an eye out for comdoll appetite as well as sentiment for the low-yielding currencies.
The Aussie got wiped out in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD tumbled below the .9000 major psychological support while AUD/JPY crashed below .8700. What’s up with that?!
Risk aversion and the higher-yielding Aussie don’t get along very well, as the ongoing conflict in Syria prompted traders to flee to the safer and lower-yielding assets. Not even the spike in gold prices was able to lift the Australian dollar in yesterday’s trading!
There were no reports released from Australia for the past couple of days, as the Land Down Under will make its first release in the form of quarterly construction work done today. After falling by 2% in the first quarter of the year, construction work done could rebound by 1.1% in Q2. If that’s the case, the Aussie could have a chance at trimming its losses but a weaker than expected reading could result in a worse selloff.
The pain’s not over yet. After yesterday’s brief reprieve, the Aussie is back in the loser’s den, giving up a lot of ground to the dollar. AUD/USD started the day at .8990, fell to an intraday low at .8902, and then closed the day with a 49-pip lose at .8941.
As the situation in Syria escalates, risk aversion also heightened. This enabled the dollar to rally across the board, much to the dismay of the Aussie.
Earlier today, the Aussie received a small boost from the Private Expenditures report. It came in better than expected, printing a massive 4.0% rise. The forecast was only for a 0.5% gain.
No red flags on Australia’s calendar today, so expect the Aussie to be mainly driven by market sentiment. If risk aversion persists, we could see the Aussie chalk up more gains.
The comdolls had another difficult day yesterday. AUD/USD finished the day 8 pips lower than its open price after climbing to an intraday high at .8980. Did the easing of Syrian tensions even help the Aussie?
Well, maybe a little. Thanks to investors worrying a bit less about Syria, the comdolls got a small boost in the early trading sessions. Unfortunately, demand for the Greenback jumped during the U.S. session, which helped drag major comdoll pairs like the AUD/USD.
Australia’s private sector credit at 1:30 am GMT is the only report on tap, so keep close tabs on risk and comdoll appetite as these factors could have more influence on the Aussie’s price action today!
Wipe out! AUD/USD just couldn’t seem to get back on its feet last Friday, as the pair crashed towards the .8900 major psychological support. AUD/JPY had its own share of losses, as it dipped to a low of 87.23. Can the Aussie recover today?
Australia’s quarterly private sector credit report came in line with expectations, as it showed a 0.4% increase for Q2 2013. Although this indicates that consumers and businesses are relatively confident in their financial situation, it wasn’t enough to keep the Aussie afloat when the risk aversion wave pulled the higher-yielding currencies underwater.
Over the weekend though, China printed a better than expected manufacturing PMI figure. The reading improved from 50.3 to 51.0 in August, outpacing the consensus at 50.6. This reveals that the downturn in manufacturing for the world’s second largest economy might be over, which explains why the Aussie started Monday’s trading on a good note.
Australia’s building approvals and quarterly company operating profits are up for release in today’s Asian session and could make or break the Aussie’s rally. Building approvals are slated to rebound by 4.1% while operating profits could see a 1.1% increase so y’all better keep an eye out for those reports due 2:30 am GMT. Also due today is HSBC’s final manufacturing PMI for August, which is expecting a small upward revision from 50.1 to 50.2.
The bigger movers for the Aussie this week, namely the retail sales release and the RBA monetary policy statement, are scheduled tomorrow. After posting a flat reading in July, Australian retail sales could be up by 0.4% in August, which might provide support for the Aussie. Meanwhile, the RBA isn’t expected to make any interest rate changes but the accompanying statement could help traders figure out if another rate cut is in the cards for this year or not.
The party doesn’t end on Wednesday, as Australia will release its quarterly GDP reading then. Another 0.6% growth figure is expected, but a higher than expected reading might be enough to end the Aussie’s losing streak. It’s gonna be a pretty exciting week for the Aussie so make sure you don’t miss out on any big moves!
Finally, a breather! AUD/USD clocked in a solid 44-pip gain yesterday on the back of better-than-expected data from China. Booyah!
The Aussie and other commodity-related currencies got a boost yesterday when China surprisingly printed a strong manufacturing PMI report. Of course, it also didn’t hurt that the Land Down Under’s mortgage approvals report came in at 10.8%, which is a heck of a lot better than the expected 4.1% growth.
Let’s see if the Aussie can sustain its strength today! A few minutes ago China’s non-manufacturing PMI came in at 53.9, which is slightly lower than last month’s 54.1 reading. Then, at 1:30 am GMT today we’ll see Australia’s retail sales numbers, which is expected to show a 0.4% uptick from last month’s 0.0% growth.
Unfortunately, the retail sales numbers might not get as much attention from traders as it usually does. That’s because at 4:30 am GMT the RBA is set to print its monetary policy decision. While not many are betting on any changes in interest rates, the RBA has been known to surprise us before. Keep your eyes peeled for any surprise decisions as well as any hints on the RBA’s biases and plans in the near future!
While most major currencies bowed down to the Greenback yesterday, the Australian dollar refused to surrender. AUD/USD jumped back above the .9000 and traded up to a high of .9072. AUD/JPY also had its share of gains as it broke above the 90.00 handle.
Australian retail sales came in weaker than expected for August, as the report showed a mere 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.4% increase. This wasn’t much of an improvement from the previous month’s report which showed a flat reading.
Despite that, the Aussie managed to stay afloat and go for gains during the Asian session, as the RBA decided to keep rates unchanged at 2.50% in their monetary policy decision. As Forex Gump mentioned in his article about the events that moved the Aussie yesterday, RBA Governor Stevens insisted that the Australian dollar is still trading at relatively high levels and that mining investment is declining. However, his removal of the phrase “scope to ease policy further” in his statement led most traders to believe that the central bank is done with cutting rates this year.
Australian GDP figures are up for release today and another 0.6% growth figure is eyed for the second quarter of 2013. Bear in mind though that the economy has seen a bunch of weak figures in terms of hiring and spending recently, which hints at a potential downside surprise for the GDP release. Stay tuned for the actual figure due 2:30 am GMT.
Who’s the loser now? The Aussie slammed its counterparts across the board when data from Australia encouraged short squeezes across the Aussie pairs. AUD/USD jumped by 116 pips while AUD/JPY registered a nice 118-pip increase.
The Land Down Under only had its GDP report on its calendar, but I guess that was enough to spur on the Aussie bulls. The report showed a 0.6% growth in Q2 2013, which is slightly faster than the first quarter’s 0.5% growth. The figures suggested that the Australian economy might not be in as big a trouble as many have proclaimed, which inspired Aussie-buying for the rest of the day.
Will Australia’s weak trade balance data rain on the bulls’ parade? A few minutes ago the report showed a 0.77 billion AUD trade deficit, which is a heck of a lot weaker than the expected 0.10 billion AUD and last month’s 0.24 billion AUD surplus figures.
Only the AIG construction index data at 11:30 pm GMT is scheduled for release today, so keep a close eye on how the Aussie bulls and bears will trade the comdoll in the later trading sessions!
Retreat, Aussie bulls, retreat! After its sharp rallies the other day, AUD/USD pulled back to the .9120 area while AUD/JPY consolidated below the 91.50 level. Can the Aussie resume its climb today?
Weaker than expected Australian trade balance weighed on the Aussie in yesterday’s trading, as the actual figure fell from a surplus in June to a 0.77 billion AUD deficit in July. On top of that, the previous month’s figure was revised down from a surplus of 0.60 billion AUD to just 0.24 billion AUD. This goes to show that export activity in the Land Down Under slowed down recently, most likely due to the downturn in Chinese manufacturing during the same period.
There are no reports due from Australia today so the Aussie might be extra sensitive to risk sentiment. If you’re trading AUD/USD, you should keep close tabs on the U.S. non-farm payrolls release during the New York session. Stay on your toes!
With no data out from the Land Down Under yesterday, the Aussie moved to the beat of its major counterparts. AUD/USD ended the week near its intraweek highs while AUD/JPY reflected the overall yen strength last Friday.
Australia didn’t release any economic report last Friday, but a weaker-than-expected U.S. NFP report enabled AUD/USD to shoot to near its intraweek highs. Unfortunately, overall yen strength hit AUD/JPY, which fell 40 pips from its open price.
Australia won’t be as defenseless in terms of economic data today. The ANZ job ads and home loans data are on tap at 1:30 am GMT, and word on the hood is that market players are expecting slightly weaker numbers. Will these reports drag the Aussie lower or will weak expectations make room for a surprise rally today?
It’s a victory for Aussie bulls! AUD/USD rallied to a high of .9242 while AUD/JPY reached the 92.00 levels, as Prime Minister Abbott’s win resulted in a more positive outlook for the Australian economy. Can the Australian dollar sustain its gains today?
The results of the recent Australian elections held over the weekend continued to support the Aussie in Monday’s trading. Tony Abbott, who secured a strong victory over former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, has promised to repeal the mining tax and sparked hopes that mining investment would recover from its slump. Remember that mining industry activity comprises a huge chunk of overall economic growth, so a rebound in mining investment could lead to a better performance in that sector.
As for economic data, Australia reported a 2.4% increase in home loans for July, higher than the estimated 2.2% increase. Data from China has also been relatively upbeat, as the world’s second largest economy reported a 2.6% annual increase in price levels for August.
Only a couple of minor reports are due from Australia today and these are the NAB business confidence and the MI inflation expectations. Also due today are China’s industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data. Another set of strong figures could allow the Aussie to extend its winning streak against its counterparts so make sure you keep tabs on these releases if you’re trading Aussie pairs!
The comdoll bulls weren’t done partying yesterday as they continued to push AUD/USD higher in the charts. The pair gained another 78 pips and closed above the 1.0300 handle after hitting a low at .9217.
An improvement in Australia’s NAB business confidence might have added to the optimism over the comdolls. However, it’s more likely that the comdoll rally was spurred on by better-than-expected data from China as well as risk appetite in the markets.
Will economic data help the Aussie once again? The Westpac consumer confidence, the only report scheduled today, showed a 4.7% growth for the month of September. Not only is it better than last month’s 3.5% growth, but it’s also a three-year high for the report. Booyah!
Yowza! The Australian dollar suffered a sharp selloff in today’s Asian session, as the Australian jobs data came in below expectations. AUD/USD let go of the .9350 minor psychological level and dipped below .9300 while AUD/JPY slipped to the 92.50 mark.
The Australian employment change figure turned out to be a huge disappointment, as the actual report showed a 10.8K drop in hiring for August. This pushed the jobless rate up from 5.7% to 5.8%, suggesting that there are still plenty of weaknesses in Australia’s labor sector. Bear in mind that weak hiring is generally considered negative for overall economic growth, as it could result to a huge drop in spending.
No other reports are due from Australia for the rest of the day, as the Aussie’s behavior could be affected by the latest jobs release. In the meantime, check out Forex Gump’s article on how AUD/USD usually reacts to the employment report.
The Aussie bulls should have done all Taylor Swift on Australia’s jobs data and know that it was trouble when it walked in. The Aussie sustained heavy losses against its major counterparts with AUD/USD closing 64 pips below its open price.
As I mentioned yesterday, Australia printed a weak jobs report, which cast speculations that the RBA would cut its rates further some time this year. It also didn’t help that other economies released weak reports themselves, which only deepened the risk aversion across the markets.
No data scheduled for Australia today, so keep an eye out for factors that might affect risk sentiment. I hear that the U.S. is due to release its retail sales numbers!
Down but not out! The Australian dollar may have had trouble keeping up with its currency rivals last Friday but it was off to a roaring start this week. AUD/USD bounced from the 92.00 area and jumped above the 93.00 handle while AUD/JPY zoomed to a high of 92.79 earlier today.
There were no economic reports released from Australia last Friday but the gloomy jobs report released earlier last week continued to weigh on the Aussie. However, the Australian currency was quick to take advantage of doubts about the Fed’s Septaper that weighed on the U.S. dollar at the start of this week.
Australia’s economic schedule is empty for today, as the RBA gears up to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting tomorrow. It should be interesting to see why the central bank decided to remove their bias for further easing so y’all better read up on the minutes once they’re out! China’s CB leading index and industrial production data are also due tomorrow and these could provide additional support for the Aussie should they come in strong.
Wednesday has a couple of medium-tier reports from Australia, namely the MI leading index and the CB leading index, which may provide more clues on the outlook for the Australian economy. After that, the coast is clear in terms of economic data while Chinese banks will be on a holiday on Thursday and Friday.
What a close call! The bulls managed to take over AUD/USD’s price action although they didn’t do it without compromises. The pair had climbed to a high at .9391 before it dropped 71 pips to close just 46 pips higher than its open price.
Aversion to the U.S. dollar supported higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie yesterday, but the bears had had enough by the U.S. session. Positive U.S. data enabled the bears to attack in the later trading sessions, which caused intraday reversals for pairs like AUD/USD.
A few minutes earlier the RBA printed its meeting minutes. The report revealed that while the RBA isn’t considering a rate cut in the near future, it’s also not discounting the possibility. The central bank also reiterated its previous outlook on the economy (a little below the average trend in Q2 2013), the labor market (somewhat subdued), and the mining investments (expected to decline over the next few years).
Reaction to the minutes is pretty tame for now, but be sure to watch your Aussie pairs closely for any signs of significant price action!
The Aussie took advantage of both dollar and yen weakness in yesterday’s trading, allowing AUD/USD to climb back to the .9350 area and AUD/JPY to test 93.00 again. Will the Australian dollar be able to hold on to its gains today?
As Forex Gump discussed in his article summarizing the RBA meeting minutes, central bankers were not as hawkish as they appeared during the interest rate decision. Apparently, the RBA is still keeping the door open for potential rate cuts if necessary and isn’t so optimistic about the domestic economy. However, the minutes still highlighted the improvements in the global economy and confirmed that the recent easing moves are starting to work their magic.
A couple of leading indices released earlier today reflected notable improvements in the Australian economy. The CB leading index posted a 0.3% uptick for July after dropping by 1.1% in June while the MI leading index showed a 0.6% increase after staying flat in the previous month.
No other reports are due from Australia for the rest of the day so y’all better keep close tabs on market sentiment if you’re trading the Aussie. Don’t forget to watch out for the FOMC decision as well!
Surf’s up, dudes! Like many major dollar pairs, AUD/USD enjoyed a nice spike after yesterday’s Fed statement. The pair reached the .9500 handle and closed 142 pips higher than its open price. Booyah!
Aside from the Fed’s dollar-bearish statements, comdolls like the gold-related Aussie had also benefited from the jump in commodity prices. Gold prices jumped by $59 yesterday, its biggest one-day rally since June 2012. Of course, it also didn’t hurt that both Australia’s CB and MI leading indices printed better-than-expected results.
Only the RBA bulletin at 1:30 am GMT is scheduled for release today, so y’all better watch the commodities and dollar price action in case it dictates the Aussie’s price action more than this report does!
Looks like .9500 was too hot for AUD/USD to handle! The pair was unable to make significant headway past the .9500 major psychological resistance yesterday, as it pulled back to the .9450 area during the New York session. Can it resume its rallies today?
The lack of data from Australia kept AUD/USD in consolidation around .9500 for almost the entire day. However, when the U.S. session rolled along and data from Uncle Sam turned out better than expected, AUD/USD was forced to give back some of its recent gains.
There are no reports due from the Land Down Under today so AUD/USD’s movement could be driven mostly by market sentiment. If you’re planning on trading AUD/JPY, make sure you check out my economic commentary on Japan to see what you’re up against!