What a snoozer! The euro’s price action on the charts was the complete opposite of 'N Sync’s spectacular comeback performance at the VMAs. EUR/USD ended the day 12 pips lower at 1.3373 after trading within a 50-pip range. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was down 18 pips at 131.62 by the New York session close.
While there weren’t any economic reports released yesterday, you should know that news were aplenty from the euro zone. Italy is slowly creeping back into the headlines and not for the right reasons! Ex-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party is threatening to bring down the government if Berlusconi gets kicked out of Parliament.
The news consequently led to a 2% sell-off in Italian stocks. So I guess the euro is still pretty lucky that it was able to hold its ground. Make sure you keep tabs on this issue if you plan on trading the shared currency today.
Also, don’t miss the German Ifo report which is due later at 8:00 am GMT. It is eyed at 107.1 but a better-than-expected figure may just give the euro it’s much needed boost. Stay tuned for it!
What a rollercoaster ride it was for EUR/USD yesterday! Although the pair dropped to an intraday low at 1.3322, it managed to pare its losses and stage a quick rally in the U.S. session to end the day with a decent 20-pip gain.
Data from the euro zone was positive. The August German IFO Business Climate survey came in slightly better than expected, printing a reading of 107.5. The market had only anticipated a reading of 107.1. It was also significantly higher than the previous month’s reading of 106.2.
A rising figure is normally seen as bullish for the domestic currency because it implies that the health of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers are improving, which could eventually spur economic activity.
Euro zone’s economic calendar offers us a few of tier 2 reports to trade, namly, the Gfk Consumer Climate Survey and the M3 Money Supply. The Gfk German Consumer Climate survey will publish at 6:00 am GMT and is estimated to show a 7.1 figure, which is slightly higher than last month’s 7.0. As for the M3 Money Supply, it will be released two hours after at 8:00 am GMT. A 2.0% rise is predicted.
Retreat, boys, retreat! 1.3400 was still a no-go for EUR/USD in yesterday’s trading. There was only enough demand for the pair to test the level but resistance held. By the end of the New York session, the pair was down 50 pips from its opening price at 1.3341.
It would seem that worse than expected consumer confidence data from Germany held back the pair. It printed at 6.9 versus the 7.1 forecast and was lower than the previous reading for July at 7.0.
If you’re hoping to see a strong rally above 1.3400 today, we will most likely need to see positive data from Germany. The German unemployment change report is due later at 7:55 am GMT and it is expected to show that the unemployment pool contracted by 5,000 people.
Make that two in a row! EUR/USD chalked up consecutive losing days, as the pair dipped to a low of 1.3218 yesterday. EUR/JPY, on the other hand, was stuck in consolidation above the 130.00 handle.
Data from Germany came in weaker than expected yesterday, which explains why the euro was unable to score any gains. German CPI showed a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.2% uptick while the jobs report showed a 5K increase in unemployment instead of the projected 5K rise in hiring. With euro zone’s largest economy showing signs of weakness, traders worried that the ongoing recovery in the region might not be sustained.
German retail sales are up for release today and, given the recent drop in employment, we could be in for a disappointing figure. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.5% rebound in spending after the previous 1.5% decline, but a weaker than expected reading might force the euro to extend its slide. Stay on your toes for the actual release at 7:00 am GMT, followed by Italian jobs data at 9:00 am GMT.
Strike three for the euro! The common currency received no love from the bulls last Friday when EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and even EUR/CHF showed euro weakness. Did German data have anything to do with this?
Of course it did! Last Friday Germany printed its retail sales numbers, which showed a 1.4% decline in July, which is weaker than the expected 0.5% uptick. The unemployment rates of Italy and the euro zone both came in pretty much as expected, so it was probably worries over Germany, the region’s largest economy, as well as loss of risk appetite near the end of the month, that weighed on the euro.
Let’s see if the ECB shares the market junkies’ concerns when it releases its monetary policy statement on Thursday at 11:45 am GMT. The central bank isn’t expected to make any interest rate changes, but we might get a word or two from Draghi on what he and his gang thinks of the region’s economic prospects!
In the meantime, keep close tabs on the Spanish, Italian, and euro zone manufacturing PMIs due at around 7:00 to 8:00 am GMT today, followed by the services PMI readings on Wednesday at around the same time. Also take note that Germany’s factory orders is due on Thursday at 10:00 am GMT, just hours before Draghi takes center stage.
Make sure you don’t miss out and mark these events on your calendars!
When will the bleeding stop? The euro fell to fresh lows against the dollar, as EUR/USD dipped to 1.3183 and ended the day below the 1.3200 major psychological level. EUR/JPY, on the other, hand climbed above the 131.00 mark.
The euro zone printed better than expected economic figures yesterday, as both Spain and Italy printed strong improvements in their manufacturing PMIs. These were enough to boost the overall manufacturing PMI in the euro region from 51.3 to 51.4 in August, convincing most market participants that an economic recovery is underway.
There are no reports on the euro zone’s schedule for today, save for a couple of low-impact releases. These are the euro zone PPI and the Spanish employment change figure, which are set for release around 8:00 am GMT. Hiring in Spain is expected to pick up by 5.2K in August, which would mark its sixth consecutive month in jobs growth. Meanwhile, producer price levels are projected to have climbed by 0.2% in July after staying flat in June.
Bear in mind though that risk sentiment seems to be the major driver of price action recently, particularly for EUR/USD. With that, keep close tabs on any updates regarding the potential U.S. military strike in Syria as this could have a huge impact on risk appetite.
Yeouch! EUR/USD and EUR/GBP continued to lose ground despite the upward revisions of the region’s manufacturing PMI reports and a better-than-expected PPI report. What’s holding the investors back anyway?
Well, you gotta admit that the region’s prospects aren’t looking too great, especially when compared to a potential tapering of the Fed in the U.S. and the better-than-expected reports that have been popping up in the U.K. Not only that, but investors aren’t holding their breaths for significant optimism from the ECB later this week as the central bank had already laid out its not-so-optimistic “forward guidance” plans.
Today at around 7:15 am GMT to 8:00 am GMT we’ll see if there are any revisions to the strong services PMI reports that we saw a couple of weeks back. The euro zone’s retail sales and quarterly GDP revisions will also come out at 9:00 pm GMT. The original figures aren’t expected to see any significant changes, but keep your eyes peeled nonetheless. With some market players already jittery about the euro zone’s prospects, it probably won’t take much downside surprise in economic reports for the bears to pounce.
Euro bulls charging through! The euro snapped out of its losing streak to the dollar during yesterday’s New York session, as EUR/USD pulled up to the 1.3200 area. EUR/JPY also had its share of gains, as it spiked to a high of 131.82. Was this just a retracement though?
Euro zone retail sales turned out weaker than expected for July, as the report showed a mere 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.5% increase. What’s worse is that the previous month’s figure was revised down from -0.5% to -0.7%. The euro barely reacted to this release since it was followed up by the final GDP reading for Q2 2013, which was unrevised at 0.3%.
Although there were no major reports released from the U.S., the euro had a sudden rally during the New York open, when most traders booked profits off their euro short positions towards the end of the London session. Perhaps they didn’t want to give up their recent wins in case today’s big event boosts the euro!
The ECB is set to make its interest rate decision at 12:45 pm GMT today and, even though no actual monetary policy changes are expected, the accompanying speech of Draghi could still have a huge impact on euro movement. After all, the euro zone has seen a few months’ worth of improvements, particularly in the manufacturing and services PMI of France and Germany, and it will be interesting to see whether this will make Draghi a little more optimistic or not. Upbeat remarks could keep euro bulls in control so y’all better stay tuned for this event!
Bloodbath, bloodbath everywhere. The euro suffered significant losses against the Greenback, pound, and even the yen yesterday as weak data and a dovish ECB policy statement weighed on the common currency.
The euro started the London session on the wrong side of the charts as Germany’s factory orders report revealed a 2.7% drop in July following a full 5% gain in June. Analysts had only been expecting a 0.7% decline.
The day didn’t improve a couple of hours later when the ECB published its monetary policy decision and Draghi took center stage. While the central bank has kept its rates steady at 0.50%, Draghi also reiterated their resolve to keep interest rates at record lows “for an extended period of time.” Not only that, but he hinted that the ECB is ready to act if they judge the money market rate movements to be “unwarranted.”
Will the Asian session traders continue to drag the euro lower until the end of the week? At 6:45 am GMT we’re scheduled to see the German trade balance data, followed by the German industrial production report at 10:00 am GMT. Both major reports can help paint the picture of how healthy the euro zone’s largest economy is, so you better pay attention and stay close to the charts during these releases!
Who ya callin’ a loser? The euro had a chance to fight back against the U.S. dollar last Friday, as the pair recovered from a low of 1.3104 to a high of 1.3190. EUR/JPY briefly dipped below the 130.00 mark to a low of 129.92.
Data from the euro zone came in weak, as Germany’s trade balance and industrial production figures fell short of expectations. The trade surplus fell from 15.8 billion EUR to 14.5 billion EUR in July, reflecting a downturn in trade activity, while the industrial production report showed a 1.7% decline. Uh oh, this might mean that euro zone’s largest economy is in the middle of a slowdown!
Luckily for EUR/USD, the U.S. printed a weaker than expected jobs report during the NY session, triggering a dollar selloff that boosted EUR/USD from its recent lows. Will the euro be as lucky this week?
There are no major reports lined up from the euro zone today or for the rest of the week. Medium-tier reports from France and Italy, namely their industrial production and jobs figures, are set for release while Germany is scheduled to hold its 10-year bond auction midweek. Overall data for the euro region on hiring and production are also due this week, but this might not have such a huge impact on the shared currency’s action as earlier reports from Germany carried a larger effect.
With that, make sure you keep close tabs on market sentiment, which could be swayed by the situation in Syria and the plans for a military strike, as these could boost demand for the euro’s safe-haven counterparts. Stay on your toes!
Score another one for the euro! The common currency chalked up more gains against its counterparts thanks to an improvement in risk appetite and a better-than-expected report. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/JPY all showed gains with EUR/USD shooting up by as much as 91 pips.
Only the Sentix investor confidence data was released yesterday, but it was enough to spur on the euro bulls. The report rose from -4.9 to a 6.5 reading in September as investors feel optimistic about the region going out of recession. That’s the first time that the report reached the positive territory since July 2011 and is the second strongest reading since the reports started in 2003!
Today only France’s industrial production data at 6:45 am GMT is scheduled for release. The data is expected to improve from a 1.4% decline to a 0.7% uptick. Also, keep your eyes peeled for any developments on Italy’s political brouhaha.
Word around the hood is that Silvio Berlusconi could withdraw his party’s support from the current if he gets kicked out of the Senate. This could mean snap elections and more instability for the euro zone’s third largest economy. Yikes!
Down but not out! Just when it seemed like the euro was in for another losing day against the dollar, the shared currency put up a strong fight and pushed EUR/USD to the 1.3275 area. EUR/JPY had its share of gains, as it climbed above the 133.00 mark.
Data from the euro zone was actually weaker than expected yesterday, as the French industrial production report posted a 0.6% decline instead of the estimated 0.7% increase. However, the improvement in risk sentiment spurred by easing tensions in Syria was able to provide support for the higher-yielding currencies.
There are no major reports due from the euro zone today, which means that euro pairs could be moved by risk sentiment again. If you’re trading the euro, you should still watch out for the release of French non-farm payrolls and German final CPI around 6:30 am GMT, as these reports could spark volatility. Also penciled in today’s London session is the German 10-year bond auction, which should give market watchers a peek at the yields and demand for government bonds.
The euro wasn’t the ugliest duckling in the currency arena yesterday, but it wasn’t a favorite either. EUR/USD ended the day in the green, but the common currency lost pips to the pound, yen, and the franc.
With Germany’s 10-year bond yields soaring to highs not seen since October 2011, can you really blame the bears from attacking? Aside from economic growth concerns in Germany and France, the region’s two largest economies, political concerns in Italy is also taking its toll on the euro.
Will the common currency catch a break today? At 8:00 am GMT we’ll see the ECB’s monthly bulletin along with Italy’s industrial production numbers. This will be followed by the euro zone’s industrial production data at 9:00 am GMT and a speech by Mario Draghi at 11:40 am GMT. Let’s see if we see any euro-bullish news then!
The euro tossed and turned in the charts yesterday, as EUR/USD struggled to hold on to the 1.3300 major psychological handle while EUR/JPY dipped to the 132.00 mark. Against the pound, the euro refused to back down, keeping EUR/GBP above the .8400 support level.
Given the bleak performance of the euro zone these days, it’s no surprise that the region churned out another set of disappointing figures yesterday. Euro zone industrial production slipped by 1.5% in July, which was worse than the estimated 0.1% drop, while the previous month’s figure was revised down to show a 0.6% decline.
ECB President Draghi’s speech also turned out to be a downer, as the central bank head honcho expressed his skepticism about the region’s economic recovery. He did affirm that the euro is a strong and stable reserve currency, providing a bit of support for euro pairs.
Only a few medium-tier events are lined up from the euro zone today and these are the region’s employment change release for the second quarter, ECOFIN meetings, and Eurogroup meetings.
The quarterly employment change figure could print a decline of 0.2%, which shouldn’t be a shocker since we’ve already seen the slowdown in hiring for most of euro zone’s larger economies. As for the ECOFIN and Eurogroup meetings, leaders are expected to discuss the ongoing economic downturn, existing and future bailout programs, and Italian politics among many other issues. Better keep your eyes and ears peeled should anything interesting come up!
The euro took another trip down the charts last Friday as investors continued to lose enthusiasm over the region’s growth. EUR/USD managed to pop 6 pips higher, but EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, and EUR/CHF all showed losses.
Only the quarterly employment numbers were released from the region last Friday. The report showed a 0.1% decline for Q2 2013, a bit higher than the previous quarter’s 0.4% decrease. Unfortunately for the euro, traders still remember how dovish Draghi had been in his latest speeches and how the recent economic reports from the region aren’t exactly confidence-boosting. This is probably why investors dumped the common currency ahead of the weekend.
Will the euro’s luck change this week? At 8:00 am GMT today we’ll hear from Draghi as he delivers a speech in Berlin, followed by the release of the euro zone’s CPI numbers at 9:00 am GMT. Draghi’s speeches haven’t really been the most predictable ones, so y’all better tune in and not miss his stint on the hot seat today!
That 1.3400 mark must’ve been too hot to handle! EUR/USD surged 15 pips close to that level before making a sudden turnaround and sinking back to the 1.3330 area. EUR/JPY was still stuck in consolidation, as it moved sideways around the 132.00 level.
CPI reports from the euro zone came in line with consensus, as the headline figure showed an annualized 1.3% increase while the core figure had a 1.1% rise for August. Meanwhile, Draghi’s speech contained no surprises, as market watchers already heard what he had to say about keeping rates low for an extended period during his testimonies last week.
The main event for the euro today will probably be the release of the German ZEW economic sentiment figure, which is due at 10:00 am GMT. The actual figure is expected to climb from 42.0 to 45.3, reflecting a slight increase in optimism for the month of August. This should be enough to lift the region’s ZEW figure from 44.0 to 47.2, but a downside surprise could be likely as Germany has been printing bleak economic figures recently.
Other euro zone reports that could cause volatility today are the current account balance and trade balance releases. Both reports are slated to show small improvements for July, possibly reflecting an increase in export activity. Better watch out for weak figures that might force the euro to retreat!
Back-to-back, baby! EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/JPY ended another day in the green as traders focused on a strong report from the euro zone. Can you guess which report boosted the euro’s demand?
If you guessed the ZEW economic sentiment reports, then you should give yourself a high five! Germany’s ZEW data printed at a three-year high of 49.6 while the euro zone’s own numbers also rose significantly from 44.0 to 58.6. Aww yeah!
With investor optimism rising in the region, it was no surprise that traders ignored the worse-than-expected current account and trade balance data also released yesterday.
The euro zone isn’t scheduled to print any economic data today, so keep your eyes on other major currencies for direction. As I mentioned in my USD update, the Fed’s statement is up in a few hours. It could be a game changer, so don’t even think of missing it!
Move out of the way! Euro bulls chargin’! EUR/USD surged past the 1.3400 and 1.3500 major psychological resistance levels yesterday, as it reached a high of 1.3512. EUR/JPY also had its share of gains and was able to edge 12 pips close to the 133.00 mark.
As it turns out, the Fed’s decision to postpone tapering led to a massive dollar selloff. Since there were no reports released from the euro zone then, the shared currency rushed to take advantage of dollar weakness, which was also a result of the Fed’s downward revisions to their growth forecasts.
Make sure you drop by my U.S. economic commentary to get more deets on the FOMC event! As Forex Gump pointed out in his FOMC checklist article, it’s important to take note of the other components of the FOMC statement in order to figure out how dollar pairs will behave in the longer run.
There are still no reports on the euro zone’s schedule for today, which suggests that EUR/USD could keep benefitting from the ongoing dollar selloff. If you’re trading this pair, better watch out for top-tier releases from the U.S., such as the existing home sales report and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
The euro snagged another win against its major counterparts yesterday, but the move had more to do with the other currencies’ weaknesses. EUR/USD only gained 19 pips but EUR/GBP jumped by 55 pips while EUR/JPY rocketed by a whopping 202 pips.
There were no economic reports from the euro zone yesterday, so the common currency was more vulnerable to its counterparts’ price action. After all, the dollar continued to weaken across the board, the yen lost a whole lot of pips to a positive BOJ comment, and the pound gave away pips when the U.K. printed a weak retail sales report.
Today at 11:30 am GMT German Bundesbank President Weidmann is due for a speech. Watch out for any clues on their plans to contribute to any of the Troika’s bailout programs. Then, at 2:00 pm GMT we’ll see the euro zone’s consumer confidence data. Confidence reports have been printing positively in the region lately, so don’t be surprised if this prints another upside surprise.
And Merkel gets her third term as German Chancellor! The euro rejoiced after the German elections over the weekend, allowing EUR/USD to gap higher and start the week at 1.3551. EUR/JPY was also off to a good start as it opened at 134.51. Will the euro keep partying the entire day?
Bear in mind that Merkel’s political party, the Christian Democrats, was unable to win enough seats to secure a majority. This means that Merkel will have to come up with a coalition, possibly with the Social Democrats who secured 26% of the seats in parliament. Stay on your toes for any updates on this issue, as difficulties in forming a grand coalition might be negative for the euro zone and the euro.
As for economic data, the euro zone is set to print its PMI figures for today. Germany and France will be releasing their manufacturing and services PMIs starting at 8:00 am GMT, and both countries are expected to show yet another round of improvements for August. If that’s the case, the euro might be able to extend its rallies for the rest of the day.
Do watch out for ECB President Draghi’s speech at 2:00 pm GMT, as this might spark some volatility among euro pairs again. He has been a little dovish recently so I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes downbeat remarks on the euro zone’s recovery.