KA-POW! The euro got clobbered by its major counterparts yesterday on mixed euro zone data and a dovish ECB speech. EUR/USD fell by 57 pips while EUR/JPY also sustained a 188-pip fall.
Yesterday France, Germany, and the euro region all printed their manufacturing and services PMIs. Unfortunately, it was only the services PMIs that exceeded expectations. France’s manufacturing conditions fell from 49.7 to 49.5, Germany’s numbers dropped from 51.8 to 51.3, and the euro area also saw a drop from 51.4 to 51.1. Yikes!
Draghi’s dovish remarks didn’t help the euro either. In a speech in Brussels, he reacted to the reports by saying that the ECB is considering any instrument (including more LTRO) to bring the money market rates to levels that they think are appropriate for the medium-term inflation growth.
Will the euro have any luck today? At 8:00 am GMT we’ll see the German IfO business climate numbers. Analysts are expecting the report to improve to a reading of 108.4 from last month’s 107.5. A worse-than-expected reading could hint that business owners are losing optimism for the euro zone’s largest economy, so y’all better not miss this report!
Check out the euro droppin’ it like it’s hot! The shared currency sold off against its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, pushing EUR/USD to a low of 1.3464 and EUR/JPY down to the 133.00 handle. Will the euro have a chance to recover today?
Weaker than expected data from Germany dragged the euro down the charts yesterday, as the German Ifo business climate index inched up from 107.6 to 107.7, lower than the estimate at 108.4 for September. This shows that businessmen are slightly more optimistic about economic conditions for the month.
Another factor that weighed on the euro was the downbeat sentiment from some ECB officials. According to policymaker Nowotny, the central bank has yet to discuss whether lower rates or an additional LTRO would be required sooner or later. ECB official Costancio echoed this bias and mentioned that the central bank has several easing tools in its shed.
Germany is set to print its GfK consumer climate report at 7:00 am GMT today and possibly show an improvement from 6.9 to 7.1, indicating a small rise in consumer optimism. However, if the actual figure falls short of expectations, the euro might suffer another selloff.
The euro bulls gave each other virtual high fives yesterday after they succeeded in pushing EUR/USD, EURJPY, and EUR/CHF higher than their open prices. What the heck spurred them on?!
It was Germany’s report, of course! Thanks to a lack of major data from other major economies, the currency bulls were able to pay attention to Germany’s GfK consumer climate report. It printed a reading of 71.1, which is the report’s highest level in SIX years. That’s strong optimism for the euro zone’s largest economy!
Today the only report to watch out for is Italy’s retail sales data at 8:00 pm GMT. This means that you should also keep a close eye on other news reports, such as the U.K.’s current account data and the U.S. pending home sales if you want to see more chart action!
The euro didn’t go very far with its recent run, as EUR/USD made a quick U-turn after reaching a high of 1.3538. At the same time, EUR/JPY got stuck in consolidation somewhere around the 133.50 minor psychological level. Which way could the euro go today?
Weaker than expected medium-tier reports from the euro zone weighed on the shared currency yesterday, as Italian retail sales posted a 0.3% decline instead of the estimated 0.3% uptick while euro zone private loans slipped by 2.0% on an annualized basis. This reveals that there are still several weak spots in the economy and suggests that the region has a long way to go before completely recovering.
Several medium-tier reports are due from the euro zone again today, and these are the German CPI, French consumer spending, and retail PMI. Inflation in the euro zone’s largest economy is projected to post another flat reading for September while French consumer spending could see a 0.1% uptick. Retail PMI climbed back to the expansionary zone last August, but it remains to be seen whether it can stay above 50.0 or not in September.
Take note that further signs of weakness in the euro zone economy could weigh on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY in today’s London session. Do watch out for any changes in market sentiment that may affect these pairs, too!
Ooomph! The euro plunged against its counterparts last Friday despite the lack of major data from the euro region. EUR/USD might ticked 37 pips higher but EUR/JPY fell by 25 pips, EUR/GBP declined by 33 pips, and EUR/CHF registered a 29-pip loss. What’s up with that?!
Blame it on risk sentiment! Aside from the worse-than-expected Italian bond auctions and French consumption numbers, the euro was also weighed down by Draghi’s hints of using more tools to stimulate the economy. Of course, it also didn’t help that Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi was stirring up political trouble.
Looks like the investors were right to be worried! On the eve of his birthday over the weekend the former Prime Minister rocked Italy’s political scene by announcing the resignation of five ministers from his party, Forza Italia, from Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s coalition formed last April.
Whether or not Berlusconi’s move was prompted by a disappointment over a sales tax issue (as Berlusconi claims) or it’s because he’s widely expected to be kicked out from public office in the next few days (as many analysts claim), Berlusconi and his ministers’ actions aren’t doing the euro any good. Heck, one look at the weekend gaps would show us that!
As eventful as early Monday trading has been for the euro, it’s far from over yet. Not only will we see the German retail sales and the euro zone’s CPI numbers today, but we’ll see manufacturing and services PMIs from Spain, Italy, Germany, and the whole euro zone over the next couple of days. On top of that, the ECB is set to make its interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Better keep close tabs on all of these if you don’t want to miss out!
It’s a deadlock! Euro and dollar traders refused to yield to each other in yesterday’s trading, keeping EUR/USD stuck in its current consolidation below 1.3550. EUR/JPY, on the other hand, enjoyed an upside breakout and rallied to the 133.00 area.
Data from the euro zone was actually weaker than expected, which suggests that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY simply banked on dollar and yen weakness yesterday. German retail sales fell short of consensus as it showed a 0.5% uptick instead of the estimated 0.9% increase while the CPI flash estimate for the region landed at 1.1%, lower than the projected 1.3% annual reading.
There are a few medium-tier reports from the euro zone today, namely the German employment change and manufacturing PMIs from Spain and Italy. The region-wide jobless rate is also up for release and analysts are expecting to see the reading hold steady at 12.1% for August. Watch out for these releases starting 8:15 am GMT, as another round of weak figures could lead to euro selling!
Red was the euro’s color yesterday as it weakened on disappointing euro zone reports and overall risk aversion. EUR/JPY saw a steep loss while EUR/USD and EUR/GBP had trouble closing in favor of the euro.
Even without the crazy U.S. government shutdown, RBA statement, and Shinzo Abe’s speech, the euro still would have had a crazy day. See, not only did the Spanish, Italian, and euro zone manufacturing PMI miss its expectations, but the German retail sales and unemployment numbers also disappointed the markets. These news prompted speculations that the ECB would be even more dovish in its speech today.
Yep, that’s right! At 11:45 am GMT today the ECB is set to release its monetary policy decision for the month of October. This will be followed by a press conference at around 12:30 pm GMT. While market players aren’t expecting policy changes from the central bank, they’re expecting Draghi to hint at using more stimulus given that the local and global economy seem shakier than from when they last met.
If you’re not in the mood for ECB though, you can always trade the German bond auctions as well as the Spanish unemployment change report at 7:00 am GMT!
Eat my dust! EUR/USD zoomed up the charts and screeched to a high of 1.3608 in yesterday’s trading while EUR/JPY cruised above the 132.00 mark. What’s fueling the euro’s rally and will it be able to last?
Well, economic data sure ain’t the reason for the euro’s strength! The reports actually came in the red, with the Spanish unemployment change printing a weaker than expected result of 25.6K versus the estimated 12.3K rise in joblessness.
It’s probably not the ECB rate decision too, as the central bank simply decided to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%. Perhaps euro pairs did breathe a sigh of relief when they found out that the central bank refrained from easing this month, even though they did hint that they are considering further rate cuts or more LTRO.
What lifted the euro’s spirits yesterday was Italian Prime Minister Letta’s victory. After all the political drama in the country, the current leader was able to secure enough votes to keep the coalition government in place. Whew!
It seems that EUR/USD also got a boost from good ol’ dollar aversion! Traders started dumping Greenbacks as the U.S. government shutdown marked its second day, and it didn’t help that U.S. data also came in the red. This prompted speculations that tapering is not gonna happen this month nor this year.
It’s all about medium-tier reports for the euro zone today, as Spain and Italy are gearing up to release their services PMIs. The retail sales figure for the euro region is also up for release today. Given the red figures that we’ve been seeing recently from the euro zone, I wouldn’t be surprised if today’s set of reports also print disappointing results. France and Spain are also set to hold their bond auctions today, which might add volatility to euro price action. Be careful out there!
Victory! EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/JPY all saw rallies yesterday as better-than-expected reports got mixed in with EUR appetite yesterday. What factors boosted the euro anyway?!
The euro started gaining ground when services PMIs from Italy and the euro zone came in better-than-expected. Spain’s PMI didn’t fare so well, but a Spanish bond auction resulted in the lowest yields in three years, so investors were able to shrug it off. Of course, it might have helped that concerns about Berlusconi are starting to fade and optimism is once again on the rebound.
It also didn’t hurt that the euro’s counterparts showed weaknesses. Disappointing data from the U.S. and Japan caused USD and JPY weakness, while profit-taking took its toll on GBP pairs.
Will the euro have another good day today? Germany’s PPI report will be out at 6:00 am GMT, followed by the euro zone’s own PPI data at 9:00 am GMT. Keep an eye out for Germany’s numbers as it could affect the sentiment for the euro!
Thud! The euro fell like a heavy rock on Friday, with EUR/USD dropping to a low of 1.3545 and EUR/JPY falling 23 pips below the 132.00 major psychological level. What was that all about and can it recover today?
Medium-tier euro zone data came in weaker than expected, as both the German PPI and region-wide PPI fell short of consensus. Producer prices in euro zone’s largest economy showed a 0.1% decline while the region printed a flat reading.
Only the euro zone Sentix investor confidence and final GDP reading are up for release from the euro zone today. The Sentix report could show a rise from 6.5 to 10.9, reflecting stronger optimism for October, while the euro zone GDP reading for Q2 2013 could hold steady at 0.3%. Watch out for those reports starting 9:30 am GMT.
Hi-yah! The common currency received a triple roundhouse kick from the yen, pound, and the franc as the euro zone’s fundamentals caught up to its price action. What the heck brought that on?!
The euro gained against the dollar on overall Greenback weakness, but it didn’t have any fight against its counterparts. For one thing, yesterday’s Sentix investor confidence data only came in at 6.1 when market players had been looking for a 10.9 reading. It also didn’t help that the euro zone’s Q2 2013 GDP came in at 0.3%, which is better than Q1 2013’s 0.1% growth but is still below first estimates at around 0.4%.
Will the euro bulls bring their game face today? We have a lot of German data on tap including the trade balance numbers at 6:00 am GMT. The report is expected to improve from a surplus of 14.5 billion EUR to 15.1 billion EUR. Then, at 10:00 am GMT Germany will print its factory orders numbers, which is estimated to show a 1.2% growth from the previous month’s 2.7% decline. Since Germany is the euro zone’s largest economy, any major hiccup in these big reports could weigh on the euro in general.
EUR/USD paced back and forth between support around 1.3560 and resistance below 1.3600, as traders kept waiting for a strong market catalyst. EUR/JPY rallied to a high of 132.04 then ended the U.S. session at 131.49.
Economic data from the euro zone was mixed, with the German trade balance beating expectations and the factory orders data falling short. The trade surplus widened from 15.0 billion EUR to 15.6 billion EUR, higher than the estimate at 15.1 billion EUR, while factory orders showed a 0.3% decline instead of the projected 1.2% increase.
German industrial production figures are up for release at 11:00 am GMT today and the report is expected to show a 1.1% rebound from the previous 1.7% decline. A weaker than expected reading could keep the euro’s gains in check so make sure you keep tabs on the actual report. Don’t forget that ECB President Draghi has a speech scheduled at 11:00 pm GMT and he might rock the markets then!
Mixed price action? We’ll take it! The euro bulls were pretty satisfied with pushing EURGBP, EURCHF, and EUR/JPY higher even as they lost in the EUR/USD battle. What boosted the euro this time?
Blame it on euro zone news reports! Not only did the German industrial production come in better-than-expected (1.4% vs. 1.1%), but some ECB officials had also spoken up. Apparently, more than a few of them agree that more LTRO is not necessary in the near future.
Will the good vibes sustain the bulls today? At 6:45 am GMT we’ll see France’s industrial numbers, followed by the ECB monthly bulletin and Italian industrial production at 8:00 am GMT. And don’t forget Draghi’s speech out at 4:30 pm GMT!
You win some, you lose some. While the euro gave up some of its recent gains to the dollar, it was able to recover against the Japanese yen. What’s in store for the euro today?
Medium-tier data from the euro zone was weaker than expected, with the French industrial production report printing a mere 0.2% uptick. This was lower than the estimated 0.7% increase and wasn’t much of a recovery from the previous period’s 0.6% decline. Italy also printed a bleak industrial production figure of -0.3%.
There’s not much in terms of data from the euro zone today so expect either range-bound behavior or profit-taking for euro pairs! Traders might be thinking of taking off some risk ahead of the weekend, as the folks over in Washington could reach an agreement in the coming days. Be careful!
Now that’s how you end a week! Thanks to a relatively better-than-expected report and slightly optimistic ECB speeches, the euro was able to gain ground across the board. In fact, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and even EUR/CHF all showed euro strength!
The only report from the euro region last Friday was the German wholesale price index. The index popped up by 0.7% in September, which was a bit stronger than the 0.5% expectations. It also didn’t hurt that central bankers like Mario Draghi and Peter Praet suggest that the region’s economy has bottomed out.
Let’s see if the euro bulls can keep their momentum today when the industrial production data on tap at 9:00 am GMT. The Eurogroup meetings will also take place today, so keep an eye out for any speeches that might hint at the leaders’ plans to stay on the recovery track!
No major economic data (with the exception of Industrial production 1.0% vs. 0.8% forecast) made for a quiet morning European session for the Euro. After a 12pm GMT spike higher in risk assets and volatility, and the broad Greenback rally a few hours later, EUR/USD traded in a tight 54 pip range and closed the session virtually unchanged at 1.3561.
From the Eurogroup meetings, we got rhetoric that Spain and Ireland will soon be off their aid, and that Greece’s debts will be paid; again, it’s all talk for now but could be supportive for the euro in the short-term.
Today, we’ll see ZEW Economic Sentiment readings from Europe, most notable is the German ZEW (forecasted inline with the previous read at 49.6), and more meetings today between Europe’s Finance Ministers. Not usually market movers, but you may never know when the big guys are talking!
Strong data? So what! The euro gave up ground to the dollar and the yen, pushing EUR/USD down to the 1.3500 area and EUR/JPY to a low of 132.65. Will the euro be able to recover today?
German ZEW climbed from 49.6 to 52.8 in September, signaling that investors and analysts have turned optimistic about euro zone’s largest economy. The figure for the entire region was weaker than expected though, as it rose from 58.6 to 59.1, slightly lower than the estimated 59.4 reading.
Euro zone CPI figures are due today but these aren’t likely to cause huge waves among euro pairs. Headline inflation is projected to stay at 1.1% while core inflation could dip from 1.1% to 1.0%. The bigger market mover for today might be ECB President Draghi’s speech at 7:00 pm GMT so y’all better watch out for that!
Looks like the dollar wasn’t the only winner yesterday! The euro locked in major pips against the pound, yen, and the franc after a couple of positive reports popped up in the region.
The euro started the day on the right side of the charts as the euro zone’s inflation rate fell by an annualized rate of 1.1% for the month of September, its lowest in 3.5 years. The low inflation numbers gives the ECB a lot more room to stimulate the economy without unnecessarily raising consumer prices.
It also didn’t hurt that ECB’s Draghi is gaining momentum in establishing a common banking system. Draghi talked about a bank stress test due in early 2014, which gauges the banks’ ability to withstand economic shocks. Not a bad day for the euro, eh?
Only the euro zone’s current account numbers at 8:00 am GMT is scheduled for release today. The report doesn’t usually move the currency much, so you might want to keep an eye out for risk appetite as well.
Ha! Who ya callin’ a loser now? The euro strutted its stuff across the charts and raked in plenty of gains against the dollar and the yen. EUR/USD climbed above the 1.3650 minor psychological level while EUR/JPY rallied past 134.00. Can the euro keep it up?
The only report released from the euro zone yesterday was the current account balance, which actually came in weaker than expected. Instead of seeing the surplus widen from 15.5 billion EUR to 17.7 billion EUR, the figure simply landed at 17.4 billion EUR.
What boosted the euro up the charts yesterday was the run in risk appetite after the U.S. officially ended its government shutdown when a debt deal was passed. EUR/USD also got an additional boost from news that a Chinese credit rating agency downgraded U.S. debt.
There are no reports due from the euro zone today so euro trading could very much depend on market sentiment. With that, make sure you keep close tabs on any updates from Washington and potential profit-taking ahead of the weekend!
Dojis, dojis everywhere! After making an effort in early London session trading, investors decided to close shop early and just wait for the next week. Heck, the euro ended the day almost unchanged against its counterparts!
We didn’t see any significant news report from the euro zone last Friday, so it was easy for traders to take some profits and close up shop early.
But that was then and this is now. At 6:00 am GMT it will be all about Germany as we’ll see the German PPI numbers, followed by the German Bundesbank monthly report. Remember that Germany is the euro zone’s largest economy, so any significant miss could negatively affect the euro. Good luck and good trading!