Consolidation is the name of the game! EUR/USD was stuck between support at 1.3650 and resistance at the 1.3700 major psychological level, as the pair kept waiting for a catalyst for a strong move in either direction. Will we see one in today’s trading sessions?
The only report released from the euro zone yesterday was the German PPI which printed a 0.3% uptick for September, better than the estimated 0.1% increase and the previous month’s 0.1% decline. Strong producer price inflation could carry on to higher overall inflationary pressures later on.
There are no reports scheduled from the euro zone today, allowing traders to focus on pricing in their expectations for the U.S. NFP release during the New York session. A 182K rise in employment is expected to follow the previous 169K figure, but a weaker than expected reading might be negative for the dollar and be enough to push EUR/USD past 1.3700. Watch out for that!
Euro bulls unite! The common currency clobbered its major counterparts yesterday despite the lack of economic data from the euro zone. Was it all because of the NFP report then?
Yes and no. While the negative NFP report definitely drove investors to the higher-yielding currencies, it also didn’t hurt the euro that Draghi and other euro zone officials have been giving optimistic remarks on the economy. In fact, market geeks just aren’t seeing solid reasons to short the euro right now, which explains why it’s so easy for the bulls to push it higher.
On tap today is the Belgian NBB business climate at 1:00 pm GMT, followed by the euro zone consumer confidence data at 2:00 pm GMT. Sentiment and confidence reports have been on a roll in the region lately, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more optimism from these reports.
Risk off? Pfft, who cares? The euro was sold off against the lower-yielding U.S. dollar and Japanese yen earlier on but the shared currency made a quick recovery before the end of the U.S. session. EUR/USD slipped from a high of 1.3794 to a low of 1.3741 before bouncing back towards the 1.3800 handle.
Only medium-tier reports were released from the euro zone yesterday and these actually turned out weaker than expected. Belgium’s NBB business climate reading slipped from -6.7 to -7.7 while euro zone consumer confidence stayed at -15, a notch lower than the estimated improvement to -14.
Today could be a more volatile day for the euro pairs, as Germany and France are gearing up to release their manufacturing and services PMIs. All reports are projected to show another round of improvements for October, which could help EUR/USD extend its rally past 1.3800. Watch out for the release of Spain’s unemployment rate, which is expected to drop from 26.3% to 26.1%. Stay on your toes starting 8:00 am GMT because things could get rowdy for the euro by then!
Up, up, and… nope! Not yet! Just when we thought that the euro is headed for new highs, the bears attacked and made a dent on the common currency’s intraday gains. What the heck happened?
Reports from the euro zone certainly didn’t make it easy for the euro bulls. Services PMIs from both Germany and the euro region missed its expectations while their manufacturing numbers barely met analysts’ estimates. Since investors had been looking for stellar numbers, the reports caused the euro some pips.
Let’s see if the euro can make another run for its new monthly highs. Germany’s IfO business climate is up at 8:00 am GMT. Since Germany is the euro zone’s largest economy, any significant miss or upside surprise could affect the euro’s price action during the London session.
Down but not out! The euro initially suffered a sharp selloff on Friday but it was able to recover towards the end of the day. EUR/USD dipped to a low of 1.3774 before bouncing back above the 1.3800 handle while EUR/JPY managed to close at 134.47 then gap up over the weekend. Can the euro keep it up?
The euro zone actually printed weaker than expected data on Friday, as Germany’s Ifo business climate report printed a decline in confidence. The reading for October fell from 107.7 to 107.4 instead of climbing to the estimate at 108.2. Despite that, the index is still hovering around its yearly highs so traders still kept the euro supported throughout the day.
There are no reports due from the euro zone today so make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment to figure out where euro pairs could be headed. Unless there are major catalysts though, the euro might be stuck in consolidation against its counterparts this Monday.
The euro bulls partied in the pip streets yesterday despite the lack of significant trading volatility across the board. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY might have slipped a bit but EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF capped the day in the green.
We didn’t see any economic report from the euro region yesterday, but overall dollar strength didn’t do the high-yielding currency any favors. The euro chalked up gains against the pound though, thanks to a surprisingly weak report from the U.K.
Let’s see if the euro bulls can step up their game. At 8:00 am GMT we’ll see the GfK consumer climate numbers. The report doesn’t usually dictate the euro’s moves until the end of the day, but it could cause some intraday volatility for the common currency!
The euro did a Humpty Dumpty on the charts yesterday, as it had a great fall after days of sitting on the wall. EUR/USD was unable to break past the 1.3800 major psychological resistance and tumbled down to the 1.3750 area instead. Can it recover today?
There were no reports released from the euro zone yesterday, leaving the euro with practically nothing to hang on to as risk aversion surged in the markets. Today could be a different story though as the euro zone has a bunch of medium-tier reports lined up.
First up, we have the German preliminary CPI figure which is slated to show another flat reading. Later on, Spain will be releasing its flash GDP reading for Q3 2013 and possibly show a 0.1% growth figure, which would mean that euro zone’s third largest economy is out of a recession! After that, Germany will release its unemployment change report and probably show a mere 1K increase in joblessness, which would be much better compared to the previous 25K rise. Germany and Italy are also set to hold their bond auctions today and this might add to volatility among euro pairs. Pretty exciting day for the euro, don’t you think?
The euro might have lost pips against the dollar, pound, and the franc, but it sure gained pips on the yen! What the heck caused the mixed price action anyway?!
The euro bulls weren’t thrilled when Germany’s unemployment rose for the third month in October, which isn’t good since Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone. Good thing that Spain’s GDP finally exited the recession zone with a 0.1% growth in Q3 2013.
Don’t expect to see less EUR volatility today since we have a couple more German reports on tap. Not only will Germany’s retail sales and GfK German consumer climate pop in at 8:00 am GMT, but we’ll also see France’s consumer spending at 8:45 am GMT and the euro zone’s CPI and unemployment rate numbers at 11:00 am GMT. Good luck trading these reports!
What in the world…? The euro dove sharply against its major counterparts yesterday, as it fell by nearly 200 pips to the dollar in a span of a few hours. EUR/USD plummeted from the 1.3775 area to a low of 1.3575 while EUR/JPY slipped below the 134.00 handle.
Economic data from the euro zone was mostly in the red, as medium-tier releases from its largest economies printed weaker than expected results. For instance, German retail sales showed a 0.4% decline instead of the projected 0.5% uptick while the German GfK consumer climate fell from 7.1 to 7.0 instead of improving to 7.3.
Over in France, consumer spending showed a 0.1% dip versus the consensus of a 0.2% rise. Italy’s unemployment rate came in worse than expected at 12.5% for September while the previous month’s reading was revised up to 12.4%. Joblessness in the entire euro region reached 12.2%, higher than the projected 12.2% figure, while the CPI flash estimate fell short of consensus at 0.7%.
Euro zone banks are on a holiday today, which means that there will be no economic reports released from the region. With that, the downbeat sentiment from yesterday could keep weighing on euro pairs until the end of the week, unless traders decide to book most of their profits ahead of the weekend!