The Kiwi was off to a strong start yesterday as it initially raced for gains against the greenback. However, its rally was short-lived since it took a U-turn upon reaching the 0.7200 mark.
Only a couple of low-key reports were released from New Zealand yesterday. These were the Business NZ manufacturing index and the food price index. New Zealand’s manufacturing industry expanded again in May, judging from the manufacturing index which rose from 56.7 to 58.9 during the month. This marks the indicator’s third consecutive monthly increase, implying that the manufacturing sector is getting back on its feet. Meanwhile, the food price index, which is sometimes considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation, logged in a 0.5% dip for April.
Today would probably be a much more exciting day for the Kiwi since New Zealand’s retail sales figures are on deck. After sliding down by 0.6 in March, retail sales are expected to bounce back by 1.2% in April. Core retail sales are also expected to rebound by 1.5% from the 0.9% drop seen in March. Watch out for the actual results at 10:45 pm GMT!
Positive data on Australia’s employment report helped the Kiwi post some minor gains yesterday. By the end of the US trading session, the NZDUSD traded at 0.7148, up 20 pips from its Asian session price.
Early on today, however, the Kiwi found itself dropping lower across the board. New Zealand’s retail sales in March, which was initially expected to climb by 1.1%, showed a mere 0.5% increase only. Meanwhile, the retail sales report that excluded automobile sales revealed a 1.1% rise, which was also below forecast.
No more data left on New Zealand’s economic cupboard for the rest of the week, so the NZDUSD’s price action would most likely be directed by risk aversion/appetite flows and data coming out of the US. Keep an eye out for that 0.7100 psychological support level folks, as a break in that level could push the NZDUSD back to the previous week’s low.
Once again, the Kiwi dropped as dollar bulls took over the markets last Friday. Still, looking at today’s chart art, it looks as if the pair is merely staying within a rising channel. Will support continue to hold this week?
Later today, quarterly producer price index figures will be available tonight at 10:45 pm GMT. The report measures the change in prices that producers pay for their raw materials. It is a measure of inflation because companies normally pass on these costs to consumers to bear the burden. Thus, rising input prices normally lead to an increase of the price of the final product. Input prices are expected to have risen by 0.5% during the first quarter of 2010, which would be a slight improvement over the previous quarter’s increase of 0.3%.
I point this out because there has been speculation that the RBNZ may actually decide to hike interest rates soon. This speculation however, was somewhat muted when retail sales data came in disappointing last week. If today’s report indicates that inflation is still subdued, it may give less incentive for the central bank to hike interest rates, as it would suggest that the economy isn’t improving as much as they would like.
The Kiwi was unable to take flight yesterday as it crashed below the psychological 0.7000 level against the greenback. Risk aversion, spurred by the usual fears of a debt contagion, and the slide in oil prices dragged the Kiwi down.
Yesterday, New Zealand released its services index, which revealed that the services sector expanded for the sixth straight month in April. However, the reading fell a few notches from 56.7 to 54.1, signaling that the pace of expansion slowed.
Also released yesterday was New Zealand’s producer price index which posted a 1.3% increase in input prices and a 1.8% rise in output prices for the first quarter of 2010. Both figures outpaced the consensus of a mere 0.5% increase in input and output prices, suggesting that the pickup in economic activity kept inflation rising at a strong pace. These better than expected figures provided a bit of support for the Kiwi, which was able to bounce from a low of 0.6917.
Later today, New Zealand will release the RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 9:00 pm GMT. This report would contain the central bank’s view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future. Hawkish remarks could help the Kiwi pull up from yesterday’s drop.
For the third consecutive day, the Kiwi bowed down to dollar’s unyielding strength. The strong case of risk aversion pushed the Kiwi down to 0.6862 by the end of the US trading session, almost 90 pips lower from its opening price during the Asian session.
The Kiwi took another hit earlier today when Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s financial stability report revealed that the country’s economy remains particularly fragile. Although the overall economic outlook has improved, the RBNZ indicated that the sovereign debt concerns facing some euro zone nations could indirectly affect global recovery. Traders saw the report as bearish for the Kiwi, as the fragility of the ongoing economic recovery could force the RBNZ to sit on their hands once again on its next interest rate decision.
No data on New Zealand’s economic plate today, but we will see New Zealand’s annual budget release at 2:00 am GMT tomorrow. The release details how the government plans to spend its budget for the year. This is important for traders because government spending accounts for a significant chunk of the country’s GDP.
Did someone just hire a mercenary to take out the com-dolls!? The NZDUSD was part of the big com-doll hit yesterday, as it dropped another 90 pips to end the day at 0.6621.
Similar to the moves seen in the AUD and CAD, the Kiwi has been caught up in round after round of broad based commodity selling. Debt contagion fears have sparked risk aversion, which has also led to traders shifting their positions away from higher yielding currencies like the NZD.
Still, the Kiwi’s losses weren’t as severed as those of its com-doll brothers. It found some support when the government’s budget balance plan was released. According to the plan, the Kiwi government will raise sales tax from 12.5% to 15%, while cutting income taxes. This would hopefully cut the government’s debt to GDP ratio of 90%, allowing the country to post a surplus by 2016.
I can see why traders saw this as goods news for New Zealand – governments around the world are busting their butts to fix their budget s to avoid a sovereign debt crisis that are breaking out like pimples on the euro zone’s face.
No data is coming out from New Zealand today, but that doesn’t mean you can rest on your heels. Make sure you got your dance shoes on, as we may see some large swings to end the week!
Similar to its com-doll brothers, the NZDUSD bounced back in Friday’s trading session after a series of losses to begin the week. The pair closed at 0.6783, after hitting as low as 0.6682 last week. Was the rebound merely a case of some profit taking that took place?
Thanks to a return of risk appetite, the Kiwi was able to get receive some much needed relief. My only question is, have we seen a bottom or will risk aversion continue to push higher yielding currencies lower ?
Tomorrow at 3:00 am GMT, we could see some volatile moves when the quarterly inflation expectations report comes out. Traders will be looking out for this report, as it could signal what direction the RBNZ will take with regards to interest rates. If there are signs that inflation is rising, could this given reason for the central bank to raise rates sooner rather than later? In any case, make sure you have your forex seat belts on cause we might be in for a wild ride!
Monday wasn’t such a hectic day for the NZDUSD as it cruised idly above the 0.6700 handle. With most traders off on a holiday and with not much economic catalysts on deck, the Kiwi was able to hold on to its recent gains.
Today, New Zealand is set to release a report on inflation expectations for the quarter. Last time, the report showed that business managers expected annual inflation to reach 2.7% for the next couple of years. Note that inflation expectations have been rising for the past four quarters, suggesting that a higher figure could be seen this time around. If this happens, expectations of an interest rate hike from the RBNZ could also increase, which would be bullish for the Kiwi. Watch out for this report at 3:00 am GMT.
The NZDUSD found itself holding on to the short end of the stick yesterday. The pair ended the day at 0.6681, almost 40 pips lower from its Asian session price.
The lack of hard-hitting economic data put the NZDUSD at the mercy of risk aversion yesterday. This time, debt concerns stemmed from Spain… Apparently, a couple of its local banks were forced to band together and merge to soften the blow of falling revenues.
No data coming out again today from New Zealand, so the NZDUSD’s price action will most likely be driven by economic data from the US, particularly the reports on durable goods orders and new home sales.
With not much big moves yesterday, the NZDUSD kept within its range and channeled lower. At the end of the day, the pair closed slightly lower at 0.6632. Will we continue to see the pair channel lower?
With summer coming up, we may continue to see similar movement in the forex markets, especially in pairs like the NZDUSD, which isn’t as volatile as some of the other majors. In any case, look out for any big news coming out from other developments around the world, like in Korea and in the euro zone. Any surprise news may cause sentiment to shift quickly, which may lead to some strong moves in the NZDUSD.
“Whee!” yelled the Kiwi as it soared higher and higher against the greenback yesterday, propelled by an improvement in risk sentiment. New Zealand’s stronger than expected trade balance figures even gave the Kiwi an additional boost.
New Zealand’s trade surplus grew from 590 million NZD to 656 million NZD in April, allowing its annual trade balance to turn positive for the first time since 2002. April’s trade balance figure beat the consensus of 455 million NZD as exports grew strongly that month.
No other economic reports are due from New Zealand today so keep your eyes and ears open for other events that could impact risk sentiment and affect the Kiwi’s movement.
The Kiwi went on a roller-coaster ride against its US counterpart last week. Market volatility sent the NZDUSD plunging down to the week’s low at 0.6562 before skyrocketing to close the week at 0.6789.
As we saw in the Kiwi’s movement last week, shifts in risk sentiment has been the main driver of the FX market as of late. The Kiwi rose on increased risk appetite last Thursday, but dropped on Friday as commodities and equities took a small hit.
Earlier today, the NBNZ business confidence survey was released. The report, which measures how confident manufacturers, builders, service providers and retailers are about the state of the economy, printed a reading of 48.2, slightly lower than the previous month’s score of 49.5. Could this be an adverse effect of recent debt contagion fears?
The Kiwis may be confident, but the skittish market need more convincing as the Kiwi finished slightly lower against the dollar and the yen at 0.6767 and 61.77 respectively despite companies being at their highest spirits since May 1999.
Here’s a little more in depth look at the the New Zealand Business Confidence survey released yesterday. The report revealed that 48.2% of the companies expect the general economy to improve, down from the previous 49.5% figure. The overall figure might be a bit of a disappointment, but the survey also showed 45.3% of companies are more confident on their sales and profits, marking the highest percentage in 11 years. This could mean more investments and employment for the economy, creating a pressure for the interest rate to rise.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled to release their monetary policy statement on June 10. Analysts expect the rate to rise by 25 basis points. Will the bank give in to the pressure? We’ll know next week! Meanwhile, let’s watch for the Australia and New Zealand Commodity Prices is published tomorrow at 3:00 am GMT. Since exports make up a significant chunk of New Zealand’s economy, an increase in export prices could indicate rising export demand, which would be good for the economy.
The lack of economic reports from New Zealand left the Kiwi with a topsy-turvy performance yesterday. At first, the NZDUSD dived to a low of 0.6703 but pulled up to a high of 0.6837 later on.
Weaker than expected economic reports from Australia, New Zealand’s Oceanic buddy, resulted to strong selling pressure for the Kiwi yesterday. Since a huge chunk of New Zealand’s economic activity is closely linked to Australia’s, negative economic figures from the Land Down Under have an impact on New Zealand.
That means you’ll have to keep an eye out for Australia’s GDP report due 1:30 am GMT today! If the actual figure beats the consensus of 0.6% growth for the first quarter, the Kiwi could join the Aussie in rallying.
The Kiwi sparkled in yesterday’s trading session, as it got a nice boost from a return of risk appetite in the commodities markets. The NZDUSD closed 62 pips higher to end the day at 0.6822.
Prime Minister John Key made some interesting comments that hit the airwaves yesterday, as he said that the Kiwi would continue to lag behind the Aussie in terms of performance, as carry trade will continue to drive the Aussie higher. In addition, he doesn’t expected that the RBNZ will be raising interest rates any time soon. Well, seeing as how both the RBA and BOC haven risen rates already, could the RBNZ give in to peer pressure? Only time will tell!
No major data was released from New Zealand yesterday, but as always, Kiwi trading was driven by shifts in risk sentiment. A pick up in equities and commodities markets helped push the com-dolls higher. With no data coming out for the rest of the week, we can expect more of the same.
Let me warn you though, that there’s a boat load of high impact reports docking in from the US over the next couple of days. The non farm payrolls employment report normally causes a lot of choppy movement, so make sure you’ve got your lifevests on and keep those risk management rules in check!
With absolutely nothing on New Zealand’s economic calendar, the Kiwi was left victim to risk sentiment. Although the Kiwi able to rally on increased risk appetite early on, it was undermined by the dollar’s safe-haven appeal once the European trading session kicked in. It went as high as .6900 during the Asian session before being taken back down to .6839 at the end of the US session.
No data coming out of New Zealand today, so the Kiwi’s price action will probably be determined by news coming out of other major economies, particularly the US non-farm payrolls report.
The Kiwi’s flight was cut short last Friday after weaker than expected US non-farm payrolls figures brought risk aversion back. With no economic figures to draw support from, the Kiwi fell to a low of 0.6684 against the Greenback.
This week is bound to be exciting for the Kiwi as it awaits the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday. Both its com-doll buddies, the Aussie and the Loonie, have already enjoyed rate hikes from their respective central banks. Would the Kiwi give in to peer pressure and join the rate hike bandwagon? Many are expecting the RBNZ to push their benchmark rate from 2.50% to 2.75% but if the central bank fails to do so, the Kiwi could show its disappointment by sliding even lower.
Today, New Zealand is set to release its quarterly manufacturing sales report. The 0.7% increase seen during the last quarter of 2009 marked the indicator’s first positive reading in over a year. Would it be able to sustain its growth for the first quarter of 2010? Stay tuned for the actual figure due 10:45 pm GMT!
The Kiwi lost out in yesterdays trading wars as risk aversion continued to fill the air. Like the Aussie dollar, the Kiwi fell just over 100 pips from its opening price.
With risk aversion continuing to stick around like that old box of pizza left in my fridge, we can probably expect Kiwi trading to be affected by shifts in risk sentiment today. Watch out tomorrow thouh, when the RBNZ will be releasing its interest rate decision. Word is that the RBNZ crew may actually raise rates to 2.75%. Be ready at 9:00 pm GMT when the bank makes releases its statement!
Thanks to the rise in commodity price and the speculation of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Kiwi was able to stage a magnificent rally in yesterday’s trading session. From its Asian session opening price of .6585, the NZDUSD soared almost 100 pips to close the US trading session at .6682.
The spotlight falls on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today as the bank is scheduled to announce their decision on interest rates later. The bank, which will reveal their verdict at 9:00 pm GMT, is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%. Given the expectation of a rate hike, we could see traders provide the Kiwi with some buying support.
Hooray for New Zealand! The RBNZ hiked rates from 2.5% to 2.75%, giving the Kiwi a strong boost to a high of 0.6748 against the Greenback. That’s three out of three for the com-doll gang!
Yesterday, the Kiwi joined its fellow com-dolls (Aussie and Loonie) in enjoying rate hikes from their respective central banks. According to RBNZ policymakers, they might keep raising rates in the coming months as part of their tightening monetary policy moves. Even though this rate hike was probably priced in already, the Kiwi jumped for joy after the rate statement. However, its rally was cut short when the central bank downgraded its growth forecasts for the next couple of years.
New Zealand is planning to take a break from releasing economic reports today but keep your ears open for RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard’s speech at 1:10 am GMT. He could shed more light on the central bank’s monetary policy decision and possibly give a schedule of their upcoming rate hikes. You don’t want to miss out on that, do ya?