It looks like optimism following the RBNZ’s rate hike flowed through the airwaves like Katy Perry’s California Girls! The NZDUSD made its way to the top of the Forex Billboard Top 10, as it rose 200 pips from its opening price.
In a follow up to the recent rate hike, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said that future rate hikes would be dependent on developments from around the world (ahem, Europe!). He did say however, that contagion would be limited and that Asia would continue to be like grow like Justin Beiber’s popularity with teenage girls. Okay fine, I paraphrased a little bit. But at least he expressed some confidence over the future of growth in the Oceanic region!
Nothing else on the economic playlist for today, but watch out for those risk hungry tunes that could be played on loop. If risk appetite continues to rev up, we could see riskier assets like the Kiwi continue to post gains across the board.
The Kiwi turned out to be last week’s strongest performer, edging higher against most major currencies. It rallied towards .6910 against the dollar whilst climbing to 63.37 versus the yen. Will we see the Kiwi continue to gain on interest rate hike speculation?
Judging from how furiously traders have been buying up the currency since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates, we could see the Kiwi post more gains as the month goes by. Heck, even the worse-than-expected results on New Zealand’s retail sales report released earlier today (-0.3% actual vs. -0.2% forecast) failed to bring the Kiwi down.
Nothing on New Zealand’s economic calendar for the rest of the week, so we will have to rely on news from other major economies to provide volatility and determine where the Kiwi is headed.
Not even the 0.3% slide in New Zealand’s retail sales was able to drag the Kiwi down in yesterday’s trading. In fact, the NZDUSD was able to soar to a high of .7021 after opening at .6911.
New Zealand’s economic schedule is report-free again today, which means that the Kiwi could be extra-sensitive to changes in risk sentiment. Watch out for earnings reports from US companies since worse than expected figures could spur another round of risk aversion.
Ka-ching! That’s the sound of Kiwi cash registered you heard yesterday! After testing below the .6900 handle, the Kiwi bulls decided to splurge, sending the NZDUSD all the way back up to .6993.
Late yesterday, New Zealand received another round of good news, as the Westpac consumer confidence index rose. The index printed a reading of 119.3, up from the 114.7 reading for the first quarter. The index got a boost from improvements in the labor market. With the RBNZ now hiking interest rates, we may just see confidence to continue to rise this upcoming quarter.
It seems that traders are more risk hungry now, as they’ve decided to buy up higher yielding assets. Keep an eye out for data coming out from other countries that could give more fuel for risk appetite to sustain its run.
Consolidation, consolidation! Due to the absence of economic data, the NZDUSD found itself pacing back and forth between resistance at .7000 and support at .6930. It ended the US trading session barely changed from where it started at .6980.
We will not be seeing anything from New Zealand again today, so watch for news reports from the US! Economic reports, particularly the US consumer price index and the Philadelphia manufacturing survey, that come out better-than-expected could buoy risk appetite and lead to another round of NZDUSD buying.
Propelled by risk appetite, the NZDUSD soared from its open price of .6990 up to a high of .7070 yesterday. New Zealand’s economic calendar was report-free then.
Today, New Zealand’s economic schedule is empty once again. With hardly any top-tier reports from other major economies, I wonder if the Kiwi would be able to sustain its rally. If risk appetite stays for another day, we just might see the NZDUSD edge closer to the .7100 handle.
Just likes it buddy across the Tasman sea, the NZDUSD gapped up over the weekend on some surprise news from China. The NZDUSD opened just above the .7101 handle, after closing last week at .7050.
With China being a major trade partner, New Zealand stands to benefit from any appreciation in the yuan. The reason for this is because a stronger yuan allows Chinese manufacturers to purchases more goods and raw materials, as a strong currency represents more purchasing power. If China keeps on giving in to pressure to abandon its peg to the US dollar, we may see the Kiwi continue to benefit.
The big reports to watch out for this week is the current account coming out tomorrow, and GDP data on Wednesday. The current account is expected to show a deficit of just 320 million NZD for the first quarter of 2010, a big improvement from the previous quarter’s figure of 3.57 billion NZD deficit. Seeing as how the New Zealand economy has been doing relatively well recently, we may actually see this figure creep into the surplus territory.
Meanwhile, analysts are projecting that economy grew by 0.5% during the same quarter. This would be slightly lower than the 0.8% growth experienced during the last quarter of 2009. If the reports comes in to beat consensus, we may see another bullish run for the Kiwi.
Due to the absence of an economic catalyst, the Kiwi was unable to hold on to its gains after setting a new high for June yesterday. The NZDUSD closed the US trading session at .7084, which was 70 pips lower from its high that day.
The only big report coming out of New Zealand today is its current account balance. Scheduled to print at 10:45 pm GMT, it is expected to show a 250 million NZD deficit for the first quarter of this year, which is a huge improvement from the 3.6 billion NZD deficit seen in the prior quarter. If the actual figure comes in below expectations, it could serve the catalyst needed to close the weekend gap on the NZDUSD.
The NZDUSD filled its weekend gap yesterday as it slid from an opening price of .7126 to a low of .7052. Upbeat economic figures from New Zealand weren’t able to provide support for the Kiwi.
New Zealand’s credit card spending report printed a 3.4% annualized increase in May, following last April’s 0.7% uptick. This increase in credit card spending suggests that consumer confidence is improving since they are more comfortable with incurring debt in order to spend more.
Later on, New Zealand’s current account balance showed that the 3.41 billion NZD deficit turned into a surplus of 0.18 billion NZD in the first quarter. This was probably because capital inflows outpaced outflows during that period, indicating higher demand for the Kiwi.
Would the Kiwi be able to get back on its feet today? New Zealand is set to release its GDP figure for the first quarter of 2010. The report is expected to show that economic growth toned down a little, from 0.8% in the last quarter of 2009 to 0.5% for the first quarter of this year. Being a gauge of overall economic activity, this GDP report is being watched by plenty of traders. Join them in awaiting this report due 10:45 pm GMT.
Yeahhhh mannnn! The NZDUSD rose yesterday, erasing its losses from the previous two days to close 80 pips up from its opening price. The pair finished the day at .7133. Can the Kiwi sustain its run to end the week on a good note?
New Zealand received some promising news yesterday, as quarterly GDP data put a smile on everyone’s face. For the fourth straight quarter, New Zealand’s economy grew, boosted by a rise in exports. The economy grew by 0.6% during the first quarter of 2010, which was slightly higher than forecast of a 0.5% increase. Furthermore, the figures for the last three months of 2009 were revised up to show a rise of 0.9%, slightly better than the initial printing of 0.8% growth.
This gives more reason for the RBNZ to continue raising interest rates. Oddly enough though, we didn’t see a major reaction to the news release, as the NZDUSD didn’t move too much. Either the data was priced in, or the markets are just acting really weird right now. Ha!
Be on the lookout tonight at 10:45 pm GMT, as trade balance figures will be on deck. This report will give a clearer sign of whether or not exports are truly on the rise. It is projected that a surplus of 810 million NZD was reached last month, up from the 656 million NZD figure the month before. If this report comes in significantly better than expected, we may the Kiwi post another round of gains.
Choppy, choppy, choppy – that’s how the Kiwi traded yesterday. The NZDUSD fell early on in the Asian trading session, bounced back up during the EU/US overlap, and then dropped late in the afternoon to end the day at .7069!
Earlier today, just when you thought the choppiness has died down, New Zealand’s trade balance comes in below forecast and pushes the NZDUSD lower again. It reported a trade surplus of 814 million NZD for May, lower than the 850 million NZD initially expected.
For today, New Zealand’s economic calendar has nothing to offer us so don’t expect any breakouts! The Kiwi could just end up bouncing around the previous day’s highs and lows.
Kaboom! After dipping to the .7000 handle, the NZDUSD surged sharply to the .7150 area before the week came to a close. New Zealand didn’t release any economic reports at that time.
This week, New Zealand’s economic calendar doesn’t look so busy. Only the NBNZ business confidence index and the building consents data are due today. The business confidence index fell from 49.5 to 48.2 in May, indicating that businessmen became a bit less optimistic during the month. Would it be able to rebound this June? Stay tuned for the release of the report at 3:00 am GMT. Later on, at 10:45 pm GMT, find out if building consents could sustain their 8.5% increase seen last April.
No other economic reports are due for the rest of the week, except for the ANZ commodity prices report to be released on Thursday 3:00 am GMT. The report printed a 4.5% rise in commodity prices for May and could post another uptick for June. Another strong increase could provide support for the NZD since New Zealand is a commodity-driven economy.
Wham, bam, shabam! Unlike its com-doll siblings, the Kiwi took a hit yesterday, as a report indicated that business confidence fell in the past month. NZDUSD finished 50 pips lower to close below the .7100 handle.
The NBNZ business confidence index printed a score of 40.2, a major drop from last month’s reading of 48.2. Apparently, all the debt contagion fears from Europe have caused confidence to fall. Some believe that this might cause the RBNZ to think twice about raising rates during the next meeting. Still, the report revealed that businessmen expect prices to continue to rise, which signals that inflation expectations are still on the rise. Remember, central banks keep a close on inflation as it is one of the criteria when deciding whether to raise rates or not.
With no data coming out from New Zealand for the rest of the week, so we may see more range bound trading as we enter the doldrums of summer. With all the choppiness in the markets, make sure you stick to those risk management rules!
Just like its fellow comdolls, the Kiwi took a massive hit to the chin yesterday. NZDUSD found itself holding on for dear life at .6930 by the day’s end, which was more than 150 pips lower from its Asian session opening price.
Like I keep saying in my other updates, the primary reason for the collapse of the Kiwi and the other comdolls was the unexpected massive downward revision on China’s leading index (1.7% to a mere 0.3%). The softness of economic data from the Chinese gave traders reason to believe that economic growth in China would slowdown in the next couple of months, which isn’t good for New Zealand. Remember, since New Zealand exports a lot of raw materials to China, weak economic activity from China could adversely affect New Zealand’s growth!
Nothing left on New Zealand’s economic calendar for the rest of week so look to US data, particularly the non-farm payrolls, to determine the Kiwi’s direction.
After fighting to stay above the .6900 handle, NZDUSD eventually gave in to risk aversion and slid to a low of .6859. A weak US employment report and a flat Canadian GDP reading weighed the Kiwi down yesterday.
The lack of any economic reports from New Zealand left the Kiwi vulnerable to changes in risk sentiment. Unfortunately, risk appetite took a turn for the worse when the US ADP employment report showed a smaller than expected increase in hiring. It didn’t help that Canada announced that its economic growth stalled in April after seven straight months in positive GDP readings. Traders then began to doubt whether the other commodity-dependent economies, such as New Zealand, could sustain growth.
Today, only the ANZ commodity prices report is set for release. Commodity prices saw a 2.5% increase in May and another strong rise for June could provide support for the com-dolls. Watch out for the actual release at 3:00 am GMT. Since this report is slated to have a minimal effect on the Kiwi’s movement, also stay tuned for other major reports due today. The US is set to release their ISM manufacturing PMI and pending home sales figures later on so stay on your toes for any changes in risk sentiment!
Phew! After three straight losses to start the week, the Kiwi finally held off the dollar and kicked its buck (haha get it? Buck…butt… okay nevermind). Well, that ain’t entirely accurate – the dollar just sucked yesterday! NZDUSD climbed over 100 pips from its lows for the day to end just above the .6900 handle.
The Kiwi and its comdoll siblings were able to stave off another round of losses, thanks to some wild dollar moves yesterday. With no data coming out today, the Kiwi’s moves will once again be determined by shifts in risk sentiment…
Oh wait, is it sentiment… or fundamentals that are driving the market right now? After all, the dollar lost out after poor economic data on the stateside. We could get a clearer idea of what the heck is going on right now once the monthly NFP report comes out. So buckle up and put those forex seat belts on and be ready for some wild rides tonight!
It looks like the Kiwi and its comdoll brothers weren’t invited to the winners’ party last Friday! NZDUSD took a spill from the intraday high of .6972 to close seven pips below its opening price at .6895.
In the absence of any local reports and big movements in the commodities markets, the Kiwi was at the mercy of risk sentiment last Friday. Unfortunately, risk aversion was the name of the game after the US posted horrible NFP data. Higher-yielding assets like the Kiwi took a hit after worries rose over the outlook for the US labor market. Uh-oh!
Maybe this week will have better results for the Kiwi as the quarterly NZIER business confidence data is due to be published today. Changes in confidence usually reflect future business spending and hiring, so high figures are often good for the currency. But will we see an improvement from the reading of 22 seen in the first quarter of 2010? You’ll have to wait until 10:00 pm GMT to find out, folks!
The Kiwi ain’t really off to a good start this week. After opening at .6885, NZDUSD tumbled to .6940 and crawled up to .6884 to end the New York session.
Uh oh, it seems like the Kiwi will be hanging out with the bears today. The NZIER Business Confidence report revealed a decrease of 4 basis points for the month of June, printing at 18. This marks the third consecutive quarter of decline. Gosh! The Maori businessmen must be pretty unhappy.
We don’t have anything on our calendar from New Zealand today. So if you’re planning to enter in any Kiwi trade, make sure you get a feel of the market’s risk sentiment first. Good luck!
Fly, Kiwi, fly! New Zealand’s symbolic bird might be flightless, but their currency certainly soared to the chart highs yesterday after a rally in risk appetite boosted the high yielding currencies. NZDUSD rocketed to a .6948 close after ascending from its .6826 intraday low.
It was Australia that boosted the high yielding currencies when their trade balance report reflected a healthy export demand despite economic recovery concerns. This was good news for New Zealand since their economy also relies heavily on exports.
No report will be released today, but keep in touch with any news that could affect risk sentiment! Hmm, will risk appetite continue to rule the market? Happy trading!
Winner, winner, Kiwi dinner! Improved risk appetite had investors clamoring for more Kiwi as the NZDUSD leaped 109 pips to close at .7042 yesterday. Yum!
Higher-yielding currencies like the Kiwi and its comdoll comrade, the AUD, benefitted the most from the bout of risk-taking that hit the markets. Since New Zealand is a commodity-exporting country, the Kiwi stands to benefit from a rise in commodity prices, as clearly shown in yesterday’s trading sessions.
No economic reports were released in New Zealand yesterday and today is no different. In the meantime, set your eyes to Australia, which is set to release some hard-hitting employment data. The Kiwi often mimics the movements of the AUD, so be sure to watch the charts!