Daily Economic Commentary: New Zealand

The Kiwi edged lower last Friday, no thanks to the market’s aversion to risk. Euro zone’s debt problems were the primary cause of the sour sentiment again, as the Italian debt auction performed below expectations. NZD/USD ended the day 18 pips lower from its opening price.

There are two major news release that will be released from New Zealand this week. The first one is the is the NZIER business climate survey. Last month, the reading was 25, so any figure higher than that will be seen as an improvement and could provide support for the Kiwi.

The second report is the quarterly consumer price index. The forecast is for a 0.4% gain in the final quarter of 2012, similar to the 0.4% gain seen during the third quarter. Stronger-than-expected figures usually result in a rally in the Kiwi.

You gotta give it to the Kiwi bulls, they know how to play tug-o-pips! Despite a poor economic data from New Zealand and weak news reports that could’ve taken its toll on risk appetite, NZD/USD remained strong with a 19-pip gain to .7939.

With the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) showing an index reading of 0 for the last quarter of 2011, a disappointment from the third quarter’s 25 reading, you would think that the Kiwi bears have bagged some pips!

But noooooo. Thanks to thin trading volume due to a banking holiday in the U.S., Kiwi actually managed to gain some pips against the Greenback.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that it can happen again today. Though no economic report is due from New Zealand today, other major economies are releasing big economic reports today. Make sure you’re always at the edge of your seats, aight?

Way to go, Kiwi! NZD/USD had another winning day as it reached a high of .8010 and closed at .7992. Is the Kiwi headed for more gains today?

Even though New Zealand didn’t release any reports yesterday, the Kiwi was able to rally up the charts as risk appetite improved. One of the factors that boosted the higher-yielding currencies was China’s better than expected GDP figure, which came in at 8.9% for the last quarter of 2011. Chinese industrial production and retail sales data also beat expectations.

Today, New Zealand is set to release its CPI figure for Q4 2011. The report is expected to show that quarterly inflation held steady at 0.4%, but if the actual figure comes in higher than consensus, the Kiwi could make a strong break above the .8000 handle. Keep an eye out for the actual figure due 9:45 pm GMT.

Strike three for the Kiwi! Thanks to a risk-friendly market environment, NZD/USD shot up for a third day and pocketed another 83 pips at .8074. Who says economic data is all you need?

Yesterday New Zealand released its GDP report, which unfortunately showed that the economy slipped by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2011 instead of gaining by 0.4% like analysts were expecting.

Good thing traders got their eyes on the euro zone and the U.S.! News of the IMF planning to boost its funds and Greece coming closer to reaching a deal with investors supported risk appetite yesterday, which helped the Kiwi retain its gains against the low-yielding Greenback.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that New Zealand’s data will go unnoticed. In fact, NZD/USD is currently trading well below yesterday’s highs, which might continue in the London session if no positive reports are released. Keep an eye out for this one, will ya?

You know what they say! What goes up, must come down! The Kiwi took a hit yesterday, falling 46 pips from its opening price to finish the day at .8028. What gives?

The Kiwi started the day off on the wrong note, as CPI data came in much lower-than-expected. Quarterly inflation data printed at -0.3%, which was much lower than the 0.4% uptick that was initially projected. This means that inflationary pressures could be less of a concern for the RBNZ, giving them more reason to keep rates steady (or cut them!) if necessary.

This sent NZD/USD much lower to start the day, and it failed to recover in latter sessions.

No biggies on the docket today from New Zealand but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some wild moves. Keep an eye out for other markets, as this could signal whether risk appetite is still in play.

No data? No problem! Despite the lack of economic reports from New Zealand, the Kiwi still managed to end the week with a 34-pip win against the dollar for Friday as NZD/USD ended the week at .8062.

Perhaps the currency got a little boost from Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s optimistic speech. Keep in mind that because of their close proximity to each other, good news for Australia is usually good news for New Zealand too.

Our forex calendar still doesn’t have anything scheduled for the Kiwi today. However, we’ve got a big one coming on Thursday with the RBNZ interest rate decision. So until then, it would be a good idea to gauge market sentiment to help you with your Kiwi trades.

Out of the way, everyone! Kiwi comin’ through! The Kiwi extended its gains against the Greenback to start the week, as it put on a piptastic performance on the charts. After opening at .8053, NZD/USD scrambled up about 50 pips to end the day above the .8100 handle. Will it continue climbing today?

Riding the strong surge of commodities, the Kiwi and its comdoll buddies were able to enjoy more gains yesterday. Gold just hit a new 6-week high! It didn’t even matter to traders that New Zealand didn’t publish any reports!

Today, it looks like we’ll get more of the same since the economic calendar is blank for New Zealand. In the meantime, keep your eyes locked on risk sentiment and commodities as they may continue to dictate price action for the Kiwi. Remember, momentum is on its side at the moment!

Ho humm… NZD/USD simply moved sideways yesterday as New Zealand didn’t release any top-tier economic data and risk appetite cooled down. The pair even formed a doji on the daily chart as it closed back at its .8105 open price!

Perhaps traders are hesitant to take any huge positions with NZD/USD as they await today’s RBNZ rate decision. The central bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.50% and make no other changes to their monetary policy stance. Stay tuned for the actual rate statement at 8:00 pm GMT in case things turn dovish for the Kiwi!

With risk appetite on its back, the Kiwi soared to new highs, as it closed at .8180, 76 pips above its opening price. Boo yea baby!

Earlier today, the RBNZ released its interest rate decision, and as expected, no changes were made to its current base line rate of 2.5%. Head honcho Alan Bollard acknowledged that market sentiment seems to have improved, but he also pointed to dangers in the global economy. He also mentioned that exports may take a hit if the New Zealand dollar continues to appreciate in value. With inflation still within the central bank’s target range, there is certainly room for the RBNZ to act if it needs to.

Late today at 9:45 pm GMT, trade balance figures will be released. Word on the street is that the deficit shrank from 300 million NZD in November to just 47 million NZD in December. This means that more goods were exported in December, indicating rising demand for New Zealand products. If the report prints better-than-expected and lands in surplus territory, it could give the Kiwi another boost up the charts.

It seems like the Kiwi rally is finally losing steam! After opening at .8179, NZD/USD climbed to a high of .8237, but it eventually slid back down to end the day just 12 pips higher at .8191. Will Kiwi bulls pick up the pace today or will they lie down and submit to the bears?

Just a few hours ago, the Kiwi received a minor boost from a better-than-expected trade balance report. Apparently, a record-high value for dairy exports in December helped New Zealand turn its deficit of 307 million NZD into a surplus of 338 million NZD. New Zealand’s got milk yo! To put things into perspective, this figure is waaay better than the deficit of 74 million NZD that most had projected.

Nothing more to look forward to for the rest of the day. In the meantime, I suggest y’all check out what the U.S. has to offer. I hear its due to publish its quarterly GDP report, and y’all know how that can rock the markets!

That’s what you call ending the week with a bang! The Kiwi soared higher on Friday, as risk appetite was still rampant in the markets. This helped NZD/USD close at .8189, up a solid 48 pips on the day!

Despite worse-than-expected advance U.S. GDP figures that caused equity markets to give back some of their gains, the New Zealand dollar was able to hold its head up high and keep most of its gains. Will we see more of the same today or will it start off the week on a sour note?

Later today at 9:45 pm GMT, building consents data will be available. Looking back, we can see that consents actually dropped by 6.4% last November. Take note, obtaining permits is the first step into the actual construction of a building. If we see another drop in December, it would signal some weakness in the construction sector, and could lead to some Kiwi losses late today.

Uh oh. It looks like the Kiwi’s flight up the charts is running out of fuel! NZD/USD opened at what turned out to be its intraday high at .8239 and dropped to a low of .8156. Before the day’s close, the pair settled at .8189.

We didn’t have any report from New Zealand yesterday which left the currency vulnerable to the negative vibes brought about by the disappointing EU Summit.

I wonder if the positive building reports that was released earlier will be enough to spur the Kiwi into a rally. It was reported that the number of new building approvals in the country grew by 2.1% in December and erased part of the 6.2% decline that we saw in November.

Oh, before I forget! Be sure to also keep tabs on the economic data we have from the U.S. today as they would probably have an impact on the Kiwi’s fate on the charts. Good luck!

And the uptrend continues! The New Zealand dollar bounced back yesterday and posted a 66-pip victory versus the dollar, hitting its highest level in four months. Is there no stopping the Kiwi?

The rally in the Kiwi had more to do with overall USD weakness as opposed to actual strength in the New Zealand dollar. We can probably expect risk sentiment to dictate Kiwi trading once again, as no hard data will be released today. Make sure you drop by the rest of my commentaries so you know what could serve as a catalyst in the markets! Good luck trading homies!

Aaah, there’s nothing like the positive vibes to get the Kiwi hustlin’ up the charts. Thanks to overall risk appetite yesterday, NZD/USD was able to close 60 pips above its opening price at .8316.

We didn’t get any economic report from New Zealand. However, positive news were aplenty from China and the euro zone yesterday. Because the regions are two of New Zealand’s major trading partners, good news for them also boosted the Kiwi.

Our forex calendar is once again blank for reports from New Zealand today, so it might be a good idea to keep tabs on market sentiment. If risk appetite is sustained, we’ll likely see the currency rally once more!

With the non-farm payrolls just around the corner, NZD/USD was unable to pick a direction yesterday. The currency pair simply moved sideways and traded within a very tight 50-pip. NZD/USD ended the U.S. trading session at .8333, merely 14 pips higher from its opening price.

No major report was released in New Zealand yesterday and none are scheduled again today. This means that the Kiwi’s price action will be driven mostly by the results of the U.S. labor data later. Pay special attention to the non-farm payrolls, as better-than-expected figures could trigger another risk rally and push the Kiwi higher.

Thanks to the pick up in risk appetite, the Kiwi was able to rally to its 21-week high against the dollar on Friday. NZD/USD consolidated below where it opened for the most part of the day but traded higher during the New York session. By the day’s close, the pair had settled 28 pips above its opening price at .8361.

Our forex calendar was blank for reports from New Zealand but the positive NFP data from the U.S. sparked enough positive vibes to give higher-yielding currencies a boost. We still don’t have any economic data scheduled for the Kiwi today as New Zealand banks are on a holiday in celebration of Waitangi Day.

However, we do have a couple to top-tier reports from the euro zone that could affect market sentiment in today’s trading. Be sure you keep tabs on them, ayt?

Because of the bank holiday in New Zealand, NZD/USD price action was pretty much dead. The pair opened the Asian trading session at .8348, moved in very tight 60-pip range, and ended the day barely changed at .8341.

The pair got a small boost earlier today though. The country’s labor cost index was released and it came in with a 0.7% increase. It was a welcome improvement from last month’s 0.5% gain and better than forecast.

New Zealand’s economic cupboard has nothing in store for us today, so NZD/USD’s price action will probably be contained within a tight range again today.

Despite the lack of economic reports released in New Zealand, NZD/USD joined its other comdoll buddies and rose in the charts yesterday. The pair even reached an intraday high at .8374 before capping the day 14 pips higher than its open price. Not bad, eh?

Risk appetite and expectations of a Greek deal by the end of the week supported demand for the Kiwi for most of the day yesterday, but it doesn’t mean that you should completely tune out events in New Zealand!

At 9:45 pm GMT today we’ll get hold of the country’s employment reports, and word on the street is that its unemployment rate will slip by 0.1% and clock in at 6.5% for the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, many also expect that an additional 0.4% were hired in the same quarter. If the data hugely disappoints expectations, then we might just see the Kiwi slip by a bit!

Don’t even think of missing this report!

That was quite a wild ride! After trading quietly during the entire Asian and morning European trading session, NZD/USD burst into life once the U.S. session started. It had rallied strongly at first to test the .8400 major psychological level only to fall quickly after and return to where it began that day. Overall, the pair found itself only 8 pips lower.

Earlier today, New Zealand released a very mixed employment report. The unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people who wants a job but can’t find one, fell to 6.3% from 6.6%. The employment change came in disappointingly and only showed a 0.1% gain, lower than both the forecast and the previous quarter’s figure.

No major news event scheduled to happen in New Zealand today, so the Kiwi will get most of its price action cues from events that will occur in other major economies such as the U.S. and the euro zone. The ECB’s interest rate decision could play a pivotal role in the Kiwi’s direction today.

Oomph! The Kiwi received a blow against the Greenback yesterday when risk aversion controlled the currencies’ price action. NZD/USD ended up closing with a 13-pip loss after reaching an intraday high of .8382.

No economic report was released from New Zealand yesterday, but the Kiwi bears were fired up when interest rate decisions as well as mixed reports from the euro zone weren’t enough to soothe investor concerns.

Traders even shrugged off New Zealand’s unemployment rate, which fell from 6.6% to 6.3% in the fourth quarter. Hmm, maybe it’s because the rate fell due to workers leaving the labor pool instead of them finding jobs? The unemployment change only showed a 0.1% growth in the quarter, after all.

No other report is scheduled for release today, so you might want to pay attention to reports from the euro zone and the U.S. I hear we’ll see tons of market-moving reports today!