NZD/USD let go of the .8300 handle last Friday as it slipped to a low of .8250 before closing at .8266. Will the Kiwi have a chance to bounce back this week?
Risk aversion popped its ugly head back in the markets last Friday as euro zone officials seemed to be unimpressed by the latest Greek austerity measures. This prompted many to worry that the Troika wouldn’t release the next set of bailout funds even though the deadline for Greece’s debt obligations is fast approaching. As Forex Gump noted, there’s still a huge possibility of a Greek debt default if things don’t go so smoothly!
This week, the Kiwi could have an opportunity to recover as New Zealand is set to release its retail sales report on Tuesday. However, consumer spending is expected to have slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2011 as the quarterly figure could fall from 2.4% to 1.1% for the core version. The headline figure is also expecting a slight decline from 2.2% to 1.3%. Still, stronger than expected data could give a Kiwi a strong boost so keep an eye out for that!
When risk appetite is in place, you can bet your neighbor’s cat that the comdolls are seeing some action! Thanks to the Greek officials approving the recent austerity plan, risk appetite crept back up in markets and boosted NZD/USD by 49 pips to .8339.
Only the slightly disappointing food price index report was released in New Zealand yesterday, so the Kiwi traders focused on risk appetite in markets. As it turned out, the comdoll bulls were encouraged when Greek officials approved the recent austerity measures. There will still be a lot of arm twisting in store for the country, but hey, it’s a good start, isn’t it?
Today only the country’s quarterly retail sales report at 9:45 pm GMT will be making headlines. The core figure is expected to cool down from 2.4% to 1.1% in the fourth quarter, but a significantly stronger number might give the Kiwi a boost.
Keep your head in the game, fellas!
It was a topsy-turvy day for the Kiwi as NZD/USD slipped from its day open price of .8339 then found support around the week open price of .8285. These levels held as support and resistance the entire day, but will the Kiwi break out of this range today?
A slight downturn in risk appetite weighed on the Kiwi during the Asian and London sessions, but NZD/USD was able to rebound late in the U.S. session when New Zealand printed strong retail sales data. The headline figure showed a 2.2% increase in consumer spending for the last quarter of 2011 while the core figure printed a 2.9% jump. This was more than twice as much as the predicted 1.1% increase and a few notches higher than the previous quarter’s 2.6% rise.
Only the Business NZ manufacturing index is set for release from New Zealand today and this isn’t expected to have a huge impact on the Kiwi. Still, a stronger than expected result could provide support for NZD/USD so keep an eye out for the actual figure due 9:30 pm GMT.
The Kiwi took traders on a rollercoaster ride yesterday, as it swung high in the Tokyo session, only to erase most of its gains in the second half of the day. After reaching an intraday high of .8423, NZD/USD slipped to .8337, marking an 18-pip gain on the day.
The Business NZ manufacturing index, which measures manufacturing activity, slid from 51.6 to 50.5 last month. I tapped into my inner Sherlock Holmes and found out that three of the five sub-indices saw expansions in January. While production, employment, and new orders saw growth (Yay!), finished stocks was unchanged and deliveries contracted (Boo!).
Today, you’ll have to stay up late if you want to get more info on the New Zealand economy. RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard is due to speak at 11:00 pm, and it could be worth tuning in just in case he drops some clues on the central bank’s next monetary policy move.
And the Kiwi is back in the game! After dipping to a low of .8245, NZD/USD made a strong bounce and was able to close at .8330, just a few pips shy of its .8337 open price. Can the Kiwi finish the week strong and go for more gains?
New Zealand didn’t release any economic reports yesterday yet the Kiwi was still able to take advantage of the risk rallies that took place. It turns out that the mood in the euro zone improved yesterday, boosting the spirits of market participants and inspiring a risk rally as well. Make sure you drop by my euro zone economic commentary to find out what happened!
There aren’t any economic reports on New Zealand’s agenda today, which means that the Kiwi could move and groove to the tune of risk sentiment yet again. Stay on your toes for updates!
The Kiwi may not have moved much last Friday, but boy was it off to a strong start this week! NZD/USD was practically unchanged as it ended 8 pips higher at .8338 last Friday. But this week, the pair began with a 53-pip gap up the charts! Booyeah!
We didn’t really have much to work with last Friday, so RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard decided to shake up the markets himself. He said that he believes New Zealand is being underestimated, at least when compared to Australia. He even said the New Zealand’s GDP could be up to 10% greater than the actual official figures! That certainly gives us plenty of insight as to what policymakers think about the economy!
The only noteworthy report due this week is the quarterly inflation expectations report, due at 2:00 am GMT. With PPI input coming in slightly above forecast (0.5% vs. 0.4%), it’ll be interesting to see if our brothas from New Zealand see inflation ticking higher. Good luck and may the pips be with you this week, homies!
It looks like that .8400 handle is just too tough to handle for the Kiwi bulls! Once again, NZD/USD struggled to trade above the .8400 handle, as we saw consolidation take over the markets. With U.S. traders making their way back from the long week, is a breakout in the cards?
Today, quarterly inflation expectations data will be released. Last month, experts predicted that inflation would hover around the 2.8% area, which is still near the upper-bound of the RBNZ’s target. Should we see inflation dip even lower than that, it would give the central bank some room to cut rates should it feel necessary sometime down the road.
Keep an eye out during the New York session as well, as traders will be making their way back from their weekend getaways. We could be in for a lot of volatility, so make sure you keep those stop losses in check!
Once again, we were reminded as to why the New Zealand dollar was nicknamed after a flightless bird! After peaking above .8400 on Monday, NZD/USD flopped to the ground and recorded a 50-pip slide as the pair ended at .8342 yesterday.
To the dismay of Kiwi bulls, it didn’t take long for the pair to fill in the weekend gap. Of course, it didn’t help their cause that the quarterly inflation expectations report showed that inflation expectations tempered from 2.8% to just 2.5%. The thing about these consumer inflation forecasts is that they have a tendency to come true!
In any case, New Zealand won’t be publishing any noteworthy reports today, so it looks like y’all will have to gauge risk sentiment to get a feel for the Kiwi markets today. Good luck, homies! Bag those pips!
With risk aversion waving its guns around like the Sundance Kid, all the Kiwi bulls could do was run and cower in fear. The Kiwi slipped lower during the New York session and is now making its way back to the .8250 handle. Will the support level from the past couple of weeks hold or is NZD/USD headed for new lows?
For today, we’ve got no major data on tap, but as always, stay on your toes as you never know what might become a catalyst for a strong move in the markets!
And the Kiwi soars! After scoring back-to-back losses against the dollar earlier on in the week, the commdoll finally found enough fuel to rally yesterday. NZD/USD closed the day with a 57-pip win at .8347.
We didn’t have anything on tap from New Zealand which probably means that it was just good ol’ risk appetite that boosted the Kiwi. With that in mind and given that our forex calendar is still blank for reports for the currency, be sure to keep close tabs on market sentiment. Remember that it usually rallies when risk appetite is up.
After starting the day waxing hot, NZD/USD cooled off in the latter sessions to actually finish the day just a few pips above its opening price. After hitting a high at .8398, NZD/USD fell all the way back down to .8356, posting a mere 9-pip win on the day.
Nothing coming out today, so we might be in for some tight consolidation. Watch out tomorrow evening though, when building consents hit the airwaves at 9:45 pm GMT. Last month we saw consents rise by 2.1% and if we see a figure higher than that, it could give the Kiwi another boost up the charts.
After getting sold-off during the Tokyo and London sessions and hitting an intraday low of .8322, the Kiwi pulled off a comeback during the New York session. NZD/USD flew past resistance at .8350 and ended the day 20 pips above its opening price at .8392.
The worse-than-expected trade balance report for January might have attracted the bears to the Kiwi early on in yesterday’s trading. Analysts had predicted a surplus of 184 million NZD for the month but the actual figure showed that imports outpaced exports by 199 million NZD. Consequently, the report might have gotten a few investors jittery as it affirms RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard’s worry about Kiwi’s strength taking its toll on exports.
Good thing risk appetite picked up just before the day came to a close and boosted the Kiwi. With that said, you should keep tabs on market sentiment in today’s trading too. Our forex calendar doesn’t have any high-caliber report scheduled for the currency and this could mean that its fate will depend on market sentiment. Good luck!
Due to the absence of market-moving events, NZD/USD found itself trading in a very tight range yesterday. It simply moved within a relatively tight 60-pip horizontal channel and closed the day barely changed 18 pips lower.
Earlier today, however, the pair received a small boost because of good economic data. The report on building consents showed an 8.3% gain, almost three times higher from the previous month. Meanwhile, the NBNZ business confidence report came in with a reading of 28.0, up from last month’s 16.9.
No major report scheduled for release for the rest of the week so expect the Kiwi to be primarily moved by events happening in other major economies. One important event you should keep a close watch on is the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO). You can check my euro zone update for that!
The Kiwi just had one of THOSE days… days when good data just ain’t enough. Despite better-than-expected reports, NZD/USD dropped from its intraday high of .8472 and closed the day 32 pips below its opening price at .8343.
It was reported yesterday that 28% of businesses surveyed by the National Bank of New Zealand in February see that business conditions will improve. That’s an 11-point improvement from the 16.9% reading we saw in December!
However, the ECB’s LTRO sparked risk aversion and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s not-so-dovish testimony only made investors giddy to buy the dollar and ignore the Kiwi despite the positive report. Boo!
With our forex calendar blank for economic data from New Zealand today, we’ll probably see the Kiwi’s price action be dictated primarily by market sentiment. So keep an ear out for reports from the U.S. and developments from the euro zone, ayt?
After its seesaw performance the day before, the NZD/USD decided to just chill in the charts and stage a steady but slow uptrend in yesterday’s trading session. The pair closed the day at .8382, a solid 38 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian trading session.
No major news event on New Zealand’s economic calendar today so don’t expect a lot of movement on the Kiwi. This means that we’ll probably see the currency hold its trading range today and just bounc around former highs and lows.
When comdolls are falling, you just know that Kiwi bears will want to get a piece of the action! Thanks to risk aversion in markets and a disappointing report from New Zealand, NZD/USD dropped by 93 pips last Friday, closing the week at .8289.
The ANZ commodity prices report didn’t help the Kiwi last Friday when it showed a 0.0% growth for the month of February after growing by 1.1% in January.
This week might provide a fresh start for the Kiwi bulls though, as we have a few economic reports on tap.
The visitor arrivals report released a couple of hours earlier showed a 2.3% slide in January, while December’s figure is also revised down from 4.5% to only a 3.2% growth. Not exactly the best way to start the week, is it?
No other economic report will be released until Wednesday at 8:00 pm GMT when the RBNZ releases its interest rate decision. While many don’t expect any changes in the RBNZ’s 2.50% cash rates, Forex Gump believes that the report will be interesting as it’s the first time since December that the central bank will reveal a full update on its economic forecasts.
If you miss the RBNZ decision on Wednesday, then you can always trade the quarterly manufacturing sales report coming up at 9:45 pm GMT, just a couple of minutes after the RBNZ’s decision.
My, oh my! The Kiwi took a nasty tumble in yesterday’s trading as NZD/USD slipped close to the .8200 handle after opening at .8308. What caused this huge drop?
Surprisingly, it wasn’t economic data from New Zealand that pushed the Kiwi down the charts yesterday. The commodity currency was simply dragged down by negative reports from its neighbor, Australia. The rest of the details are in my Australian economic commentary but you should be warned that the RBA is likely to be a bit more dovish than usual in their upcoming rate statement, and this could weigh down the Kiwi further.
New Zealand won’t be releasing any economic data today, as Kiwi traders brace themselves for the RBNZ rate decision tomorrow 8:00 pm GMT. Take some time to review recent economic figures from New Zealand today if you plan to trade this economic event!
Boy, those Kiwi bears sure know how to party! NZD/USD fell sharply for the third day in a row, this time slipping by 79 pips to .8130 after hitting an intraday low at .8100. What caused the Kiwi weakness this time?
Apparently, currency bears still couldn’t get over the risk aversion train that recently hit the markets. No economic report was released in New Zealand yesterday, so traders focused on falling commodity prices, China’s lower GDP forecasts, and a general sense of risk aversion.
Will the Kiwi bounce back against the Greenback today? The RBNZ is scheduled to release its interest rate decision at 8:00 pm GMT. Market players aren’t expecting changes from the central bank’s 2.50% rates for this month, but the RBNZ could still provide volatility in the Kiwi pairs as it’s also scheduled to release its economic forecasts today.
If you want to trade news reports though, then you might want to wait for New Zealand’s quarterly manufacturing sales report coming up at 9:45 pm GMT. The data is expected to grow by 0.3% in the last quarter, but keep in touch in case we see any surprises!
After three consecutive days of declines, the Kiwi was able to gasp for air yesterday as it ended a bit higher against the U.S. dollar. NZD/USD opened at .8130, dipped to a low of .8117, then managed to close at .8157. Will it be able to hold on to its recent gains?
The RBNZ decided to keep rates on hold at 2.50% as expected during their monetary policy decision yesterday. What’s particularly interesting about their recent statement was that they focused on the negative impact of the rising Kiwi on New Zealand’s growth and trade. For Governor Alan Bollard, the recent appreciation of the Kiwi was another reason to keep rates on hold, apart from the fact that their economy is still getting back on its feet after the earthquakes last year.
Aside from that, RBNZ officials also noted the downside risks from Australia and China, both of which are expecting a slight downturn in economic activity in the near term. With that, many believed that the RBNZ is likely to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2012.
New Zealand won’t be releasing any economic reports today so it’s up to market sentiment to dictate where the Kiwi could be headed. Bear in mind that the ISDA decision on Greek bond swaps is due today and this could have a say in risk sentiment. Stay on your toes!
Ah, what a good day for the comdolls! Though no economic report was released from New Zealand, the Kiwi was able to pare more of its losses against the Greenback on a risk-on market environment. NZD/USD even peaked at an intraday high of .8281 before capping the day 88 pips higher than its open price.
No economic report is scheduled for release in New Zealand again today, but as we’ve seen yesterday, risk sentiment could very easily influence the Kiwi’s price action. Aside from the Greek PSI announcement coming up at 6:00 am GMT today, we’ll also get hold of the big NFP report from the U.S. at 1:30 pm GMT.
Will NZD/USD reach its former highs above .8300 today, or will it tank below .8100 at the release of the major reports I listed above? Stay at the edge of your seats!