The party ain’t over, boys! Despite the lack of data from the U.K., the pound continued to outperform the dollar and the yen yesterday. GBP/USD 58 pips while GBP/JPY jumped by 62 pips. What the heck motivated the pound traders anyway?
Blame it on risk appetite! Thanks to speculations that the Fed would increase its monetary stimulus program, demand for the dollar’s high-yielding counterparts soared like Psy’s concert ticket sales. Of course, it might have also helped Guppy that Japan’s latest reports confirm the country’s recessionary status.
Will the U.K.’s reports disappoint like the other major economies? At 10:30 am GMT today we’ll get hold of the U.K.’s employment count change, which will be released together with the unemployment rate. The employment numbers are expected to have deteriorated in October as weak economic prospects take its toll on job hunters.
No other data is scheduled for release today, so make sure you keep your eyes open for other possible market movers from the U.S. and the euro zone!
Make that three in a row! The pound was able to extend its winning streak against the dollar and the yen for another day as GBP/USD closed at 1.6159 while GBP/JPY ended the day with a 150-pip win. Will these pound pairs be able to keep it up?
Better than expected U.K. jobs data boosted the pound against its counterparts yesterday. The claimant count change came in at -3.0K for November, much better than the estimated 5.9K increase in claimants. On top of that the previous month’s figure was revised down from 10.1K to 6.0K, revealing that the number of claimants for October was actually lower than initially reported. These better than expected results were enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.8% instead of pushing it up to 7.9%.
There are no major reports on the U.K.'s schedule for today, which suggests that the upbeat sentiment from the recently released jobs figures could carry on for the next trading sessions. Do keep an eye out for the CBI industrial order expectations, which is set to climb from -21 to -17 in December. If the actual figure meets or beats expectations, we might just see another pound rally around the time of the release at 12:00 pm GMT.
Rough day for the pound bulls, who simply couldn’t sustain the momentum it had built from earlier in the week. The question is, will GBP/USD continue to slide lower or will this be an opportunity for the bulls come back in force?
The CBI industrial orders index came in slightly better than expected, as it printed a score of -12, after it was expected to come in at -17. Furthermore, this was also an improvement from the -21 reading we had the previous month. This indicates that while orders are projected to decrease, they are decreasing at a slower rate than in the past.
We’ve got no data lined up on the economic pole today from the United Kingdom, so chances are we could see some consolidation and some choppiness across pound pairs. Just be sure to keep those stop losses in check, as you never know what might sway the market!
After a brief retracement on Thursday, GBP/USD capped off the week with another winning day as it closed 58 pips above its 1.6110 open price on Friday. GBP/JPY also managed to end the week strong as it edged close to the 135.00 handle.
Since the U.K. didn’t release any economic data on Friday, the pound simply decided to take advantage of U.S. dollar weakness, especially after the U.S. inflation reports came in below expectations.
Today though, the freshly released U.K. Rightmove HPI report turned out weaker than the previous reading of -2.6% as the December figure showed a 3.3% decline in house prices. The pound barely reacted to this release as it is probably waiting for the higher tier reports due later on.
On Tuesday, we have the U.K. CPI on tap and the actual figure is projected to dip from 2.7% to 2.6%. On Thursday, the U.K. will print its retail sales data for November and possibly report a 0.3% increase in consumer spending. Lastly, the public sector net borrowing report is due on Friday and is expected to show a larger deficit for November. Stay tuned for these releases as stronger than expected figures could mean more gains for the pound!
Looks like another streak is in the works, fellas! The pound was one of yesterday’s top performers, as it recorded solid gains against the dollar for the second day in a row. It flexed its muscles and dragged GBP/USDup 49 pips from its opening price to finish just above the 1.6200 handle. Let’s see if it’ll keep climbing today!
Oddly enough, the British pound acted like some sort of safe haven yesterday, attracting buyers who shied away from the euro, which was weakened by some dovish words from ECB President Draghi.
Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the pound was able to shrug off disappointing Rightmove HPI results, which printed a 3.3% decline for December following last month’s 2.6% slide.
Today’s a big day for the U.K. as we’ll take a look at the latest inflation data. The headline CPI is expected to drop slightly from 2.7% to 2.6%, while the core figure is said to have risen from 2.6% to 2.7% last month. Keep in mind that if inflation clocks in outside the BOE’s target range between 1-3%, the central bank will have some explaining to do via the inflation letter. Tune in at 9:30 am GMT to catch all the action!
That’s three in a row, fellas! GBP/USD extended its winning streak for the third day in a row as it closed 43 pips above its 1.6204 open price. GBP/JPY also had its share of gain as it ended up almost a hundred pips above its 135.82 open.
Stronger than expected U.K. CPI boosted the pound’s spirits yesterday as the annual figure came in at 2.7%, higher than the 2.6% estimate. However, other inflation reports such as the retail price index and core CPI came in below expectations while the PPI input figure showed a 0.1% uptick as expected.
The BOE will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting at 4:30 am GMT today and probably reveal a unanimous vote when it comes to keeping interest rates on hold. It will be interesting to see whether the central bank officials were divided or not regarding the BOE’s asset purchases so keep an eye out for that release!
Also, the U.K. is set to release its CBI realized sales report for December and possibly show a downturn in consumer spending. The reading is predicted to dip from 33 to 26 during the month, but a stronger than expected figure could still provide support for the pound. Stay tuned for the actual release at 6:00 am GMT.
For the fourth time this week, GBP/USD belonged to the bulls as it posted another green candlestick on the daily chart. But it’s starting to look like the bull run is running out of fuel – the market only finished 12 pips above its opening price of 1.6247 after climbing as high as 1.6308! Is it time for a major reversal?
Demand for the pound peaked soon after the MPC meeting minutes were rolled out. Considering what the minutes revealed, it wasn’t really all too surprising! The report offered a very gloomy outlook for the economy; the BOE sees stagnant growth and risks to inflation in 2013. In other words, more of the same for the U.K.! And we thought the new year would usher in a clean slate. Bummer!
Adding insult to injury, the CBI realized sales report came in worse than expected, printing a reading of 19, far below the consensus forecast of 26.
Hopefully, we’ll get more positive results from today’s retail sales report, which is slated to show an increase of 0.3% after the previous month’s 0.8% slide. You know the drill: tune in at 9:30 am GMT to catch the action!
Talk about resilient! Not even worse-than-expected retail sales figures could sink the pound in yesterday, as it locked in a victory versus the dollar. GBP/USD closed at 1.6284, up 26 pips from its opening price.
Retail sales figures disappointed, as the report showed flat growth last month, after it was projected to have risen by 0.3%. This comes on the heels of a -0.7% decline the month before. Nevertheless, this didn’t have too much of an effect on the pound, as it quickly recovered and traded higher during the New York session.
For today, we’ve got a slew of reports on tap at 9:30 am GMT, so put on your trading boots, pound players, cause we may be in for a wild ride!
First, current account figures are projected to show a deficit of 14.1 billion GBP, down from the 20.8 billion GBP deficit we saw last month.
Next, public sector net borrowing figures are seen to be at 14.3 billion GBP deficit, which would be more than double the 6.5 billion GBP we saw in October. This is quite curious, as the U.K. government is actually supposed to be in austerity mode. Perhaps officials had to ramp up their spending with the holidays just around the corner.
Lastly, final quarterly GDP figures are expected to show no change from the 1.0% growth figure we saw at the release of the previous version.
Should these reports come in better than projected, it may just give enough juice for the bulls to finally break through the 1.6300 handle!
Talk about ending the year strong! The pound put the hurt on the dollar in the last few days of the year, pulling GBP/USD up from 1.6100 to 1.6250. And so far, it looks like it has plans to go higher this 2013! Let’s see if it has what it takes!
Over the break, the pound got a last-minute boost from news that U.K. execs felt more confident in December. The markets took this as a sign that the U.K. might not be in danger of falling into a triple dip recession… after all, something must’ve lifted their spirits, right? In any case, this stoked demand for the pound, giving it a solid close to what will be remembered as an exciting year for the pound.
Today, we’ll hit the ground running with the U.K. manufacturing PMI, set to come out at 9:30 am GMT. Expect the index to tick up to 49.2 from 49.1. Also, keep in mind that U.K. traders will be returning to action today, so brace yourselves for some potentially explosive moves in the London session!
What a reversal of fortunes! After hitting an intraday high at 1.6381, GBP/USD dropped during the latter trading sessions, as the Cable bulls gave back all their gains. By the end of the day, the pair was trading at 1.6246, just 11 pips above its opening price.
Unfortunately, the bulls couldn’t take advantage of the better-than-expected manufacturing PMI report, which printed a score of 51.4. It was initially expected that the index would print a reading equal to last month’s figure of 49.2. Take note that this was higher reading since September 2011, so let’s see if this is the start of a pickup in the manufacturing sector.
For today, we’ve got the construction PMI lined up at 9:30 am GMT. Word on the street is that the index will show a slight improvement and print at 49.6. If we see an upside surprise, it may just give the bulls the juice they need to make a nice rally during the London session.
The pound sterling didn’t live up to its name in yesterday’s trading as it failed to shine bright like a diamond on the charts. GBP/USD chalked up a 138-pip loss when it finished at 1.6108 while GBP/JPY ended the day lower at 140.40 after opening at 141.53.
Worse-than-expected economic data from the U.K. is partly to blame for the pound’s lackluster performance. The construction PMI for December signaled further contraction in the sector when it printed at 48.7 after coming in at 49.3 from November. It disappointed the consensus at 49.6 which would have meant that the construction sector is closer to the 50.0 baseline separating growth from contraction.
Of course, it also did not help the pound (and any other currency for that matter) that the dollar was as strong as Cyclopip in yesterday’s trading after the FOMC meeting minutes revealed a not-so-dovish Fed.
Our forex calendar lists top-tier reports from the U.K. and the U.S. for today too. So make sure you don’t miss 'em!
At 9:30 am GMT, the services PMI for December will be released and it is anticipated to reflect growth in the sector with the forecast at 50.4. Along with it, the BOE will also release its data on new credit. Net lending to individuals is seen to have amounted to 400 million GBP in November.
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. NFP report will be released and you can read on more about it in my USD commentary.
Be careful and good luck out there, folks!
Not quite how the pound bulls would have wanted to end the week! GBP/USD ended Friday on a sour note, falling 44 pips to finish at 1.6064. Is the 1.6100 barrier next for Lady Cable?
Poor economic figures didn’t help the pound’s cause at all, as both the services PMI and net lending to individuals figures came in worse than expected.
The services PMI printed at just 48.9, which wasn’t only below the 50.4 target, but below last month’s reading of 50.2 as well. What was surprising about the result was that it marked the first time in two years that the index printed below the 50.0 mark! Could this mean the beginning of a downturn in the services industry? One month doesn’t make a trend, but lets see how this pans out over the next few months.
Credit conditions have also deteriorated slightly in the past month, as the total value of new credit issued last months fell by 100 million GBP. It was projected that it would actually increase by 400 million GBP last November.
For today, the only report on tap from the U.K. is the Halifax HPI, which measures the monthly change in the value of homes in England. Early estimates are that housing prices rose by 0.2% in the past month, after they had risen by 1.0% in November. Should the figure come in better than expected, it could give the bulls a slight boost to start the week off on the right foot.
With market participants seemingly lost for direction, the pound was able to rock the charts like One Direction. (Don’t judge me for knowing who they are.) GBP/USD finished the day higher at 1.3115 after opening at 1.3076.
For the most part, profit-taking allowed the pound to spend the day out of the bear lair. Of course, it might have also helped that the Halifax HPI report for December showed that house prices rose by 1.3% during the month and topped forecasts for a 0.2% increase.
Earlier, the BRC retail sales monitor printed slightly lower than its previous reading at 0.3% from 0.4%. But don’t fret. I don’t think the report would have a very lasting impact on the pound. Rather, if you plan on trading the currency, be sure to keep an ear out for earnings reports from U.S. companies. I have a feeling that they would affect market sentiment and dictate the pound’s direction in today’s trading.
It was a relatively quiet trading session in terms of data, but Cable still found itself exhibiting a lot of movement yesterday. The pair began the day at 1.6107 and finished considerably lower at 1.6058.
Cable seemed to have fallen due to a host of weak data out of the euro zone. The employment numbers from the region showed that joblessness was still at 11.8%. Meanwhile, in Germany, factory orders for the month of November was reported to have dropped by a whopping 1.8%, opposite the 3.8% gain seen the month prior. To add insult to injury, euro zone’s retail sales report also failed to meet forecast and only grew by 0.1% instead of 0.3%.
Today, U.K.’s trade balance will be released. It will be published at 9:30 am GMT and it is expected to show that the trade deficit narrowed to 9.1 billion GBP in November from 9.5 billion GBP in September. Let’s see if the positive expectations will be able to help Cable recover some of its losses.
With disappointing data from the U.K., it wasn’t much of a surprise to see the pound finish the day in the bear lair. GBP/USD closed Wednesday’s trading lower at 1.6022 after starting the day at 1.6053.
Trade balance figures from the U.K. revealed that the country’s deficit widened in November when it printed at -9.2 billion GBP. Analysts had only expected a 9.1 billion GBP deficit to follow the -9.5 billion GBP discrepancy between imports and exports in November.
Will the BOE be able to reel the pound some pips today? At 12:00 pm GMT, the central bank is scheduled to announce its rate decision. No one expects a rate increase from 0.50% but market participants will be keeping their ears out for what the Britons think about the recent economic reports (most of which have failed to meet expectations). So make sure you keep an ear out too!
Rejoice, Cable bulls! Thanks to the overwhelming case of risk appetite, Cable was able to skyrocket yesterday. The pair started the day 1.6034 and ended the 36 pips higher at 1.6070.
Positive market sentiment mainly came from the better-than-expected Chinese trade balance. It showed that the country’s surplus rose to 31.6 billion CNY in December from 19.6 billion CNY the month before. The initial estimate was only for a 20.1 billion CNY surplus.
At the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision, Governor Mervyn King said that the benchmark interest rate would be kept at 0.50%. In addition, the asset purchase program of the central bank would be held at 375 billion GBP. According to King, the committee refrained from making any changes because the credit-boosting programs they have implemented have been showing signs of success.
Today, we’ll see U.K.’s Manufacturing Production. It’s projected to show a 0.5% gain for the month of November after September’s disappointing 1.3% decline. The actual figure will publish at 9:30 am GMT.
Ooomph! That’s gotta hurt! The pound bulls weren’t able to hold on to their gains last Friday when reports from the U.K. badly missed expectations. Cable fell by 29 pips to 1.6121 after hitting an intraday low of 1.6089.
The U.K.’s manufacturing production alerted the pound bulls when it showed a 0.3% decline instead of rising by 0.5% as many had expected. Apparently, 9 out of 13 categories in the manufacturing industry fell in November, which suggested that the sector hasn’t recovered as the pound’s strength suggested.
The industrial production data also hinted of a potential triple dip recession for the U.K. The data came in at 0.3%, which is way weaker than the expected 0.8% growth.
Will the bulls have a chance at getting their mojo back? No reports are scheduled for release today, but make sure you keep your eyes glued to the tube in case we see any news from the euro zone or the U.S. that could change market sentiment!
With no releases from the U.K., the pound struck out once again in yesterday’s trading session as was unable to hold its ground versus other major currencies. GBP/USD, for one, dropped like a fly to 1.6087 from 1.6129. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP skyrocketed to .8317 from .8281.
With the risks of a euro zone breakup reduced in the past few weeks, it seems that the euro’s attractiveness has risen dramatically. This has made the pound’s status as a “European safe haven” less attractive, causing traders to start unwinding positions. Whether this will continue or not is still uncertain, but it will be best to keep a close eye on the pound’s performance over the next couple of days.
At 9:30 am GMT, U.K.’s consumer price index will be released. It’s expected to show that the inflation rate remained at 2.7% in December. The core version of the report is anticipated to share a similar story as also expected to remain unchanged at 2.6%.
If the CPI comes in above 3.0%, the head of the BOE, Governor Mervyn King, will also have to go in front of the British Parliament to explain why inflation has risen so high.
You win some, you lose some. The pound had mixed reaction against its counterparts yesterday as risk aversion and mixed U.K. data sent the pound traders all over the charts. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY dropped sharply while EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF closed in favor of the pound.
The RICS house price balance fell flat in December, which is an improvement from the 9% decline that we saw in November. Meanwhile, the U.K.’s core CPI showed a 2.4% uptick in December after climbing by 2.6% in November. The inflation number is still within the BOE’s 3% target, so the pound bulls had little reason to worry.
Unfortunately for the pound, risk aversion also took over the markets yesterday. But will the pound’s selloff against its counterparts continue today? No economic report is scheduled for release in the U.K. today, so you might want to watch out for announcements and events in the euro region that might dictate risk sentiment for today.
The pound tumbled down the charts yesterday as risk aversion extended its stay in the markets. GBP/USD dipped below the 1.6000 mark to a low of 1.5976 before it closed at 1.6006 while GBP/JPY ended the day at 141.68. Will the pound have another day in the red today?
Even though the U.K. didn’t release any reports yesterday, the British pound suffered a strong selloff as risk aversion loomed like a dark cloud over the forex market. As it turns out, British Prime Minister David Cameron turned down requests for a referendum regarding the U.K.'s membership in the EU. Several British officials and market watchers believe that the ongoing policy changes in the EU would no longer be beneficial for the U.K.
It didn’t help that credit rating agency Fitch just gave them a downgrade warning, which suggests that the country might be in danger of losing its precious AAA rating.
There are no economic reports set for release from the U.K. today, which means that most pound traders might keep their eyes and ears peeled for any updates regarding the U.K.'s membership in the EU. Stay on your toes!