Phew! The pound bears took a breather from their cause yesterday when nothing interesting came out of the U.K. GPB/USD ended the day unchanged against its open price, while GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF registered a couple of pips worth of gains.
The U.K. didn’t release economic reports yesterday, so the pound was able to take a breather from its losses. It might have also helped that Spanish bond auctions went well, which boosted risk appetite in the euro region.
Today at 10:30 am GMT we’ll see the U.K.’s retail sales numbers for the month of December. Analysts believe that the report will show a 0.2% uptick after falling for the past couple of months, but some also believe that the data will surprise to the downside. Make sure that you have your stop losses in place in case we see any significant surprises from this release!
Ouch! The pound took a nasty tumble last Friday as GBP/USD broke below the 1.6000 handle and fell by more than a hundred pips while GBP/JPY closed 16 pips below the 143.00 mark. What triggered this pound selloff?
It turns out that U.K. retail sales missed expectations of a 0.2% uptick for December and printed a 0.1% decline instead. The core version of the report showed an even larger 0.3% decrease, revealing that holiday spending was pretty weak in the U.K. Now that can’t be good for overall economic growth!
With no economic reports on the U.K.'s schedule today, traders might keep their bearish bias on pound pairs for the upcoming trading sessions. The next major report from the U.K. is the claimant count change figure and MPC meeting minutes due Wednesday, followed by the preliminary GDP reading for Q4 2012 due Friday. Y’all better do your homework if you plan to trade these releases!
And the slide continues! To start the week, GBP/USD gapped down 19 pips and continued falling until it ended at 1.5826, which was 20 pips below its opening price. Will the pound finally break its losing streak today?
Yesterday’s Rightmove HPI report revealed a 0.2% increase in house prices, up from the 3.3% decline in December. I know that a 0.2% uptick may not sound much, but the good news is that London house prices are now on its way to a 5-year high! Still, it seems the pound couldn’t shake off the bad vibes as the markets still seem to be focused on last Friday’s crummy retail sales stats and how it may affect this coming Friday’s GDP report.
Up ahead, we have public sector net borrowing data scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT. Survey says we’ll see borrowing to the tune of 13.4 billion GBP, slightly down from last month’s 15.3 billion GBP.
Despite weaker than expected U.K. data, the pound managed to end higher against the Greenback as GBP/USD closed 20 pips up from its 1.5826 open price. GBP/JPY, on the other hand, chalked in some losses as it dipped to a low of 139.80 then closed at 140.60.
U.K. CBI industrial order expectations for January missed the consensus of a -10 reading as the figure fell from -12 to -20. This reveals that an even larger decrease in order volume is expected for the month, and this could take its toll on production and hiring later on.
Meanwhile, the public sector net borrowing report came in slightly better than expected as the figure came in at 13.2 billion GBP, lower than the consensus at 13.4 billion GBP and the previous reading of 14.3 billion GBP. This means that, even though the budget deficit still widened in December, the pace of increase in debt was a bit slower last month.
Today is going to be a big day for the U.K. as the claimant count change and MPC meeting minutes are due. A total of 0.4K claimants are expected for the month of December versus November’s 3.0K decline in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. This should still keep the jobless rate steady at 7.8% but if we see worse than expected results, we could see a pound selloff.
As for the MPC meeting minutes, the vote for keeping interest rates unchanged is expected to be unanimous but it will be interesting to see whether this also applies to their asset purchases decision or not. Bear in mind that more dovish remarks could weigh on the pound for the rest of the day while upbeat comments could help keep it afloat. Keep your eyes and ears peeled!
For the third day in a row, Cable traders took a chill pill as the pair continued trading sideways. It found support at Monday’s low and resistance at Monday’s high before it settled just 5 pips below its opening price at 1.5841. Will it finally break out of consolidation today?
Upbeat employment figures helped prevent the pound from edging lower, as the claimant count report showed a decrease of 12,100 instead of an increase of 400 as many had predicted. Not only that, but the previous month’s record of a decline of 3,000 was also revised to 8,900! In turn, this saw the employment level rise to a 40-year high of 29.7 million, while the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped from 7.8% to 7.7%.
In other news, the MPC meeting minutes revealed nothing that we hadn’t already expected. All members agreed to keep interest rates unchanged, but David Miles was alone in calling for a modest increase in the asset purchase program.
The only thing we have on tap for today is a couple of tier 2 reports later in the London session. BBA Mortgage Approvals is expected to tick up from 33,600 to 34,100 at 9:30 am GMT. Meanwhile, the CBI Realized Sales index is predicted to decline from 19 to 14 at 11:00 am GMT.
Still no signs of Lady Luck for the pound! For a fourth day in a row, GBP/USD finished lower. The pair opened at 1.5843 and closed at 1.5790.
Aside from traders already feeling jittery about the financial markets, it also didn’t do the pound any good that the roster of data released from the U.K. printed mixed figures. The BBA mortgage approvals report for December came in at 33,600 versus the 34,100 forecast. On the other hand, the CBI realized sales report topped expectations at 14 when it came in at 17.
Today will be a big day for the pound with the Q4 2012 GDP report on tap at 9:30 am GMT. The forecast is seen at -0.1%. Perhaps a better-than-expected figure will be able to boost the pound out of the bear rut. Make sure you don’t miss it!
Now that’s resiliency! Despite the release of horrendous U.K. GDP figures, the pound was able to end the day higher against the dollar. GBP/USD closed right at the 1.5800 handle, 8 pips above its opening price. Can the pound continue to defy gravity this week?
So far, it ain’t looking good as GBP/USD began the week by gapping down 34 pips. Of course, this aggressive bearishness is mainly because of last Friday’s GDP report, which revealed a 0.3% contraction in Q4 2012, much worse than the 0.1% decline in growth that analysts had forecasted.
Such a deep economic contraction puts the U.K at risk of falling into a 3rd recession in 4 years if it fails to expand this quarter. And naturally, this doesn’t bode well for the U.K.'s debt rating, which many believe is already due for a downgrade.
No major reports coming out of the U.K. today, but do set your eyes across the Atlantic, where the U.S. is set to publish a couple of tier 1 reports. Good luck and happy pippin’, folks!
Rough start to the week for the pound, as it got killed across the charts yesterday. GBP/USD fell another 70 pips to finish the day at 1.5696, while GBP/JPY dropped to 142.42, down 109 pips from its opening price.
It seems that traders have soured on the pound amidst comments from incoming BOE Governor Mark Carney, who had a somewhat dovish tone at a recent WEF conference. Carney basically aid that he’d be okay with GDP targeting and allowing higher inflation if that was what was necessary to boost the economy. I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that Carney is all for aggressive monetary policy!
Nothing lined up again today, so let’s see if the pound bearishness continues. Make sure you hit up my other commentaries to see what else could potentially drive the market today!
After posting losses to its counterparts one day after another, the pound was finally able to take a breather from the bears’ advances. GBP/USD finished yesterday’s trading at 1.5760 after opening at 1.5696. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY was up 53 pips at 142.95 by the end of the New York session.
Some market junkies think that the lack of economic reports from the U.K. helped the pound rebound on the charts. I wonder how it would fare in today’s trading given that we have a handful of economic data due to be released from London.
At 9:30 am GMT, the BOE will release its data on the amount of credit it issued in December. Net lending to individuals is anticipated to have been at 900 million GBP for the month. Along with that, mortgage approvals for December is seen to print at 55,000.
Watch out for these reports, ayt? Better-than-expected figures could give the pound a little boost while negative ones could restart the GBP sell-off.
The pound’s recovery continued yesterday, as it was able to make steady gains versus the dollar and yen. GBP/USD gained 32 pips to finish at 1.5791, while GBP/JPY tested the 144.00 barrier, marking a 100-pip rise on the day.
The pound got a slight boost from better-than-expected net lending to individuals figures. The report indicated that 1.7 billion GBP worth of credit was issued last month, which was almost double the anticipated rise of 900 million GBP. Remember, more credit means more potential spending, so this could be good news for the British economy.
Can the pound continue its good fortune today? All we’ve got lined up is the Nationwide HPI, which is due at 7:00 am GMT. Word on the street is that housing prices by 0.3% in the last month, which would be a nice turnaround from the 0.1% decline the month before. Nevertheless, I don’t think this will get market players to put on their dancing shoes, so make sure you hit up my other commentaries to find out what other data will be released that could end up dictating trading flows today.
Boom boom pow, baby! The pound extended its gains against the dollar yesterday thanks to positive economic data from the U.K. GBP/USD closed higher, finishing the day at 1.5855 after opening at 1.5797.
The Gfk consumer confidence report for January showed that the Britons are less pessimistic about their economic outlook than what analysts had expected. It printed at -26 versus he market’s -27 forecast. On top of that, the Nationwide HPI report for December printed higher at 0.5% than the 0.3% consensus.
Perhaps the pound will be able to add on its gains if the manufacturing PMI report, due at 9:30 am GMT, tops expectations. It is anticipated to come in at 51.9. Should it come in higher, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pound hustle more muscle!
It was, to say the least, a very busy week for GBP/USD. The forex calendar was filled with high-profile events, which led to a wild rollercoaster-like price action for GBP/USD. GBP/USD began the week at 1.5766, went as high as 1.5880, and then closed at 1.5718.
Last Friday, GBP/USD sold-off due to bad data. The Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, slightly lower than the 51.0 initially expected. It was also notably lower from the previous month’s 51.2. This means that the rate of growth in the manufacturing industry has slowed down in January compared to December.
This week will be another big one for the pair as there are a number of market-moving events scheduled to happen.
The first one is the release of the Construction PMI. The Construction PMI will be released today at 9:30 am GMT and it expected to show a reading of 49.7. If the forecast holds, it will be an improvement from the previous month’s reading of 48.7.
Tomorrow, we’ll see the Services PMI. It’s projected to print a reading of 49.8, just like the figure seen last month.
On Thursday, brace yourselves for the Manufacturing Production report and the Bank of England (BOE)’s interest rate decision. The Manufacturing Production report is anticipated to show a 0.7% gain while the BOE is widely expected to make no changes on interest rates and its asset purchase program.
The pound owned the charts like a boss! Despite negative U.K. data, GBP/USD closed higher at 1.5759 after opening at 1.5693. Meanwhile, against the yen, the pound finished with a 2-pip gain at 145.61.
The U.K. construction PMI for January printed lower than market expectations at 48.7 versus the 49.7 forecast. Some market junkies think that the pound’s rally yesterday could be nothing more than just profit-taking. It makes sense. After all, the pound has experienced a strong sell-off in the past couple of weeks.
Today, the U.K. services PMI for January will be released at 9:30 am GMT. The consensus is for it to print at 49.5. A worse-than-expected figure could send he pound lower at the wake of the release so watch out!
Bring on the pain! Despite positive economic data, Cable took a major hit in yesterday’s trading session. The pair, which had started off at 1.5764, ended the day with a huge 102-pip loss at 1.5662.
U.K.’s Services PMI that was released yesterday surprised the markets. It showed a reading of 51.5, which is notably higher than the 49.8 forecast. It is also higher than 50.0, which means that the services industry is expanding.
Good data but a Cable sell-off? What the heck happened?
It seems that Cable’s sell-off yesterday was mainly the work of bad data elsewhere. For instance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, even though it came in as expected at 55.2, was lower than the reading from the month before. Analysts also noted that the underlying and debt rating concerns weighed heavily on Cable.
Today, only the Halifax House Price Index (HPI) is scheduled to be published. It’s going to come out at 8:00 am GMT and it is projected to show a 0.2% drop. Last month, the HPI showed a 1.3% increase. Falling house prices are normally considered bearish for the domestic currency because market participants consider it as a leading indicator of economic health. Lower house prices could turn away investors and hurt growth.
And the plot thickens. With the MPC interest rate decision only a couple of hours away, the pound ended up in deadlocks against the dollar and the yen and even gained 40 pips on the euro. What were the investors thinking?
A lot of them probably took profits from their short pound trades ahead of Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate decision at 1:00 pm GMT. Heck, they even ignored that both the BRC shop price index and the Halifax house price index printed weaker-than-expected!
Analysts aren’t expecting the MPC to make changes to its 0.50% interest rates and 375 billion GBP asset purchases, but they will most likely keep close watch on anything that the central bank has to say. More specifically, they will tune in to incoming BOE Governor Mark Carney’s speech in front of the U.K.’s Treasury Select Committee. If he hints that he’s comfortable with more stimulus, then the pound’s selloff could continue over the next couple of days.
If you don’t think that the MPC’s rate decision or Mark Carney’s testimony will make any impact on the pound, then you could also tune in to the manufacturing production, trade balance, and industrial production reports all due at 10:30 am GMT. The reports are expected to print higher than their previous figures, but keep an eye out for any significant misses!
It looks like the tides are finally turning for the pound! Thanks to incoming BOE Governor Mark Carney’s speech, the currency was able to post a second day of gains against the Greenback, taking GBP/USD up 56 pips to 1.5712. What did Carney have to say that was so bullish for the pound?
To be honest, it was more of what he DIDN’T say that had the markets going loco for the U.K. currency. Contrary to what investors had expected, Carney didn’t propose any radical changes for the BOE when he testified before the Treasury Select Committee yesterday. He noted that the use of flexible inflation targets has been working quite well for Canada and the U.K. and added that “the bar for alteration is very high.”
What he basically means is, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!” Right now, it looks like Carney won’t be applying sweeping changes and will use the same monetary policy tools that the BOE is currently using once he assumes the role of BOE head in July.
In other news, manufacturing production surged by 1.6% in December (versus 0.7% forecasts), leaving investors hopeful that the U.K. will avoid a third recession. As for the BOE rate statement, it came in just as expected, with no changes made to monetary policy.
Today, the newswires go silent as the U.K. won’t be publishing any reports. That being said, we could see more gains for the pound as bullish momentum carries it higher. Good luck and happy trading, folks!
The pound finished the week on a strong note last Friday as traders cashed in on their long euro positions and focused on signs of optimism from the U.K. Cable ticked 85 pips higher while EUR/GBP registered a 70-pip drop.
With no news from the U.K., speculation was the name of the game for the pound’s price action. Investors flocked to the pound as growth concerns in the euro region made it easy for them to pay attention to incoming BOE Governor Mark Carney’s lack of enthusiasm for more stimulus.
But the pound isn’t out of the hot water just yet! The U.K. won’t be printing any economic report today but it will release its inflation figures tomorrow at 10:30 am GMT. It will be followed by the BOE’s inflation report on Wednesday at 11:30 am GMT, where we’ll likely hear hints of what the central bank has to say about its current inflation targets.
And if that’s not enough catalyst for you, then you could trade the retail sales report out on Friday at 10:30 am GMT. We got a couple of big hitters this week, so y’all better pay close attention to the newswires!
The pound just can’t get any lovin’, can it? The British currency slipped nearly 1% against the euro during yesterday’s trading while GBP/USD tumbled below the 1.5700 handle. Will the pound continue to sell off today?
Even though there were no economic reports from the U.K. yesterday, traders started dumping the pound in anticipation of today’s economic releases. Inflation reports, namely the PPI and CPI are on today’s agenda and these could determine whether the BOE has enough room to expand its asset purchases or not. Producer prices are expected to show a 0.9% rebound for January after dipping by 0.2% in December while annual CPI is estimated to stay at 2.7%. Weaker than expected figures could trigger another pound selloff as these would suggest that the BOE has room to ease in their next rate decision. Keep an eye out for these figures around 10:30 am GMT.
The BOE inflation letter is also set for release today and this report would contain the central bank’s interpretation of the recent inflation data, providing more insight as to whether the BOE believes further easing is necessary or not. Better keep close tabs on this release as well because it could have a huge impact on pound price action!
Reversal was the name of the game for the pound yesterday as the U.K. data got mixed in with the other currencies’ price action. Cable dropped to an intraday low of 1.5574 before ending the day with only a 10-pip loss while Guppy ended up with a doji.
The U.K.’s inflation numbers weighed on the pound in the London session. The annualized CPI remained at 2.7% in January but its core figure dipped from 2.4% to 2.3% and gave room for the BOE to add more stimulus.
Luckily for the pound, the producer price index showed increases in both the input and output prices, which traders believe will soon trickle down to consumer prices and hinder the BOE from expanding its asset purchases.
Are the latest inflation numbers enough to change the BOE’s targets and stimulus plans? We might get some insight today at 11:30 am GMT when BOE head Mervyn King delivers the central bank’s inflation report. Any central bank statement always has the potential to be a market mover so make sure you stay glued to the tube for this one!
Boo hoo! The pound sold off for yet another day, with GBP/USD crashing below the 1.5600 mark and closing at 1.5656 and GBP/JPY ending the day 18 pips below the 145.00 handle. What caused this selloff?
It turns out that BOE Governor Mervyn King pushed the pound over the edge when he talked about the very grim outlook for the British economy. He mentioned that the central bank expects inflation to stay above the 2% mark for quite some time and that it will take a while before the economy can return to growth. With these reasons, he emphasized that monetary policy will remain loose until the U.K. shows signs of a rebound.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today as the downbeat outlook for their economy could continue to drag the pound pairs lower. Keep an eye out for any possible changes in market sentiment though!