Just when you thought the pound was doomed to experience another loss on the charts, it springs back to life and stages a magnificent rally! Upbeat reports from the U.K. and a poor showing from the U.S. NFP combined to take GBP/USD up from 1.5115 to 1.5287.
All’s good on the domestic front yo! According to the Nationwide HPI, house prices increased by 0.8% in July, which is the fastest pace of growth in three years and is double the figure than analysts had anticipated.
Meanwhile, construction PMI printed an incredible increase as it rose from 51.0 to 57.0 last month – marking its most impressive growth since 2010. As it turns out, a surge in residential construction contributed the most to the rise. But perhaps the best part is that new orders also recorded new one-year highs, suggesting that we could see more growth down the line.
This week, we have some other notable reports coming out, starting today with the services PMI at 8:30 pm GMT. Survey says the index will climb from 56.9 to 57.4. An upside surprise from the services industry, which is vital to the U.K. economy, could help the pound extend its gains.
After that, at 11:01 pm GMT, we have the BRC retail sales monitor, which last printed a 1.4% increase.
Later in the week, we can look forward to seeing manufacturing production data, the NIESR GDP estimate, the BOE inflation report, and the U.K. trade balance. With so many events on tap in the U.K. this week, y’all better keep tabs on the pound, aight?!
Cable does it again! GBP/USD ended another day in the green, as the pair started at 1.5287 then closed at 1.5356. GBP/JPY, on the other hand, didn’t do so well since it finished up with a loss at 150.86.
Data from the U.K. turned out better than expected once more, as the services PMI jumped from 56.9 to 60.2 in July. This means that the services sector, which comprises nearly 75% of the U.K.'s industries, posted a strong expansion for the month.
The manufacturing production report for June is up for release today and it’s expected to show a 0.9% rebound from the 0.8% decline seen in May. Take note that a higher than expected figure could allow the pound to extend its gains while a weaker than expected result could force it to retreat. Stay tuned for the actual release at 9:30 am GMT!
Positive reports from the U.K. didn’t do the pound any favors as it got clobbered by its counterparts yesterday. GBP/USD failed to go for a third straight positive day, and GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, and EUR/GBP all showed pound weakness.
The pound would have had a better day if traders only had eyes for economic data. The U.K.’s house price index showed a 0.9% growth after rising by 0.7% last month; the manufacturing production rose by 1.9% when only a 0.9% uptick was expected, and the industrial production report inched 1.1% higher, which is a lot better than last month’s flat growth.
Unfortunately for the pound bulls, forex junkies had their eyes on the BOE’s inflation report and BOE Governor Mark Carney’s speech today at 9:00 am GMT. Word on the hood is that he would introduce some form of mixed strategy that involves the BOE’s interest rates. With Carney implying that interest rate hike speculations are unfounded in his first BOE monetary policy decision, market players are also expecting dovish remarks from the new BOE head.
The U.K. won’t be releasing any other reports today, so make sure you sit tight and brace yourself for any volatility that might follow Mark Carney’s speech!
Up, up, and away! Thanks to Carney’s inflation report, Cable was able to stage a magnificent performance yesterday. The pair ended the day at 1.5494, a solid 147 pips higher from where it had begun during the Asian session.
At the August inflation report press conference, BOE Governor Mark Carney officially revealed to the markets the forward rate guidance that the central bank will use. He said that the BOE would keep rates steady at 0.50% until joblessness has dropped to 7%. He also added that if the 18 to 24-month inflation outlook is higher or lower by 0.5% than the 2% target, the central bank could deviate from its forward guidance
As for the economic outlook, the BOE said that it believes the economy would grow roughly 1.4% in 2013 and another 2.5% in 2014. The figures were substantial upgrades to the previous forecasts of 1.1% and 1.8% respectively. In addition, the BOE also said that the 7% unemployment rate target would probably be achieved in Q3 2016.
The U.K.'s forex calendar today is pretty barren, so don’t expect to see the same kind of volatility as yesterday. If anything, we could even see Cable simply consolidate today as traders take a breather from yesterday’s action.
That was a big one! GBP/USD caught a huge wave in yesterday’s trading as it cruised above the 1.5500 major psychological level and reached a high of 1.5572. Will it be able to go for more gains today?
There were no major reports released from the United Kingdom in yesterday’s trading, leaving the pound at the mercy of market sentiment. Fortunately for the British currency, risk appetite was up yesterday, as improved export data from China convinced traders that an economic rebound is in sight.
The U.K. will print its trade balance at 9:30 am GMT today and possibly show that the deficit narrowed from 8.5 billion GBP to 84 billion GBP in June. Watch out for this release because a smaller than expected shortfall could allow GBP/USD to shoot up to new highs!
Unlike the comdolls, the pound was unable to edge higher versus the dollar, as GBP/USD finished 38 pips lower at 1.5507. The question is, will the bulls bounce back or will the bears keep up the good work?
Even slightly better than expected trade figures couldn’t boost the pound last Friday. The trade report showed that last month’s deficit clocked in at 8.1 billion GBP, which was 300 million GBP better than the projection, and 600 million GBP less than the previous month’s.
For today, we may not see much movement on GBP pairs, as there’s nothing lined up on our economic calendar.
Keep in mind though, that for the most part, the pound has been bullish thanks to a positive reaction to the Bank of England’s upwardly revised growth forecast. That said, watch out when the CPI (Tuesday) , employment data (Wednesday), and retail sales report (Thursday) come out, as better than expected results could boost the pound to new highs.
The pound was off to a slow start to the week as it followed up Friday’s loss against the Greenback with another defeat. GBP/USD began at 1.5500 and finished at 1.5465.
Those of you looking to trade the news with the pound today are in luck - we’ve got the CPI on tap at 8:30 am GMT! Survey says we’ll probably see inflation tick down from 2.9% to 2.8%. But keep in mind that the BOE has been watching inflation like a hawk as of late.
A strong reading may lead the central bank to rethink its position on rate hikes, while weak inflation will be supportive of its stance. Don’t even think about missing this one, folks!
The tug-o-pips continues for the bulls and bears as the pound clocked in mixed performance against the dollar and the yen. How did that happen?!
The pound started the day strong when the RICS house price balance printed a 36% growth for the month of July, its fastest pace in seven years. Of course, it might have also helped that the yen continued to weaken across the board on the back of concerns for the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, the inflation report released during the U.K. session barely had teeth in it as it only came in at 2.8% as many had predicted.
The pound bulls weren’t able to keep their swag in the later trading sessions. A better-than-expected U.S. retail sales reading renewed speculations of a Fed taper in September, which boosted the Greenback across the charts.
Today is another big day for the pound as we will see the MPC’s monetary policy meeting minutes and the U.K.’s employment numbers at 8:30 am GMT. A slight decrease in unemployment is expected for the month of July while not many are holding their breaths for a change of heart for the MPC members who had unanimously voted to keep the BOE’s monetary policies unchanged.
And the pound outpaces the dollar once more! GBP/USD jumped to a high of 1.5545 during the London session before ending the day at 1.5516. GBP/JPY had its share of gains as it closed 12 pips up from its 151.60 open price. Why is the pound so strong these days?
For one, U.K. jobs figures turned out better than expected for the month of July. The claimant count change showed a larger than expected drop in joblessness as the actual figure came in at -29.2K versus the estimate at -14.3K. On top of that, the June figure was revised from -21.2K to -29.4K, reflecting a larger decline in unemployment. With that, the U.K. was able to keep its jobless rate steady at 7.8%. Way to go!
Meanwhile, the MPC meeting minutes revealed that BOE policymakers voted unanimously to keep interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. What was surprising though was that MPC member Weale voted against providing forward guidance, which involves basing future monetary policy changes on the unemployment rate threshold of 7%.
The U.K. retail sales figure for July is up for release today and it is expected to show a 0.7% increase in spending for the month, a faster pace of growth compared to the previous 0.2% uptick. A higher than expected figure could be likely, given the country’s recent improvements in the labor market, and this could help the pound go for more gains. Watch out for the actual release at 9:30 am GMT!
Pound bulls, unite! The British currency raked in huge gains in yesterday’s trading, as GBP/USD surged above the 1.5600 handle while GBP/JPY jumped to a high of 153.22. Why was the pound so strong recently?
As it turns out, the U.K. printed another strong report, as its retail sales figure came in at 1.1%. This was higher than the estimated 0.7% growth and the previous month’s 0.2% uptick, reflecting a strong improvement in consumer spending, which could translate to higher economic growth later on.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today, which suggests that the positive sentiment from the recent jobs release and retail sales data could continue to lift the pound against its counterparts. Stay on your toes for any potential changes in dollar behavior or market sentiment though!
Saddle up, fellas! With GBP/USD consolidating tightly on Friday, it appears that the pair is revving up for a huge breakout. Cable is currently stuck around the 1.5650 minor psychological level while waiting for a market catalyst. Which way could it break out?
There were no major reports released from the U.K. last Friday, which explains why the pound was mostly stuck in consolidation against the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, upbeat sentiment from the jobs data and retail sales figures released earlier last week kept the pair afloat.
Earlier today, the U.K. reported a 1.8% drop in house prices for August. This didn’t spark much of a reaction from pound pairs though and there are no other reports due from the U.K. for the rest of the day, which suggests that we could be in for another round of quiet trading.
The next set of data from the U.K. is due on Wednesday in the form of the CBI industrial order expectations and public sector net borrowing figures. Both reports are slated to show improvements, as the country is actually expected to show a budget surplus for July while the industrial order expectations index is projected to climb from -12 to -8.
On Friday, the second estimate of the Q2 2013 GDP is up for release, along with BBA mortgage approvals and business investment data. Aside from keeping tabs on these U.K. reports, do stay tuned for any updates on the Jackson Hole Symposium towards the end of the week if you’re trading GBP/USD!
Despite the lack of data, pound pairs still managed to trade with a slightly bullish bias. By the end of the day, GBP/USD was trading at 1.5654, up 27 pips from its opening price.
This just goes to show that the pound is pretty resilient right now, as it has managed to climb up the charts even on days where no data is made available. With nothing lined up on our calendar once again today, can the pound bulls manage to score another victory? Just be on the lookout for any strong moves in the dollar, as GBP/USD trading could have a major impact on other GBP pairs as well.
Higher and higher! There just seems to be no stopping traders from buying GBP/USD as the pair recorded another green candlestick to end the day. It traded as high as 1.5696 before settling at 1.5676, up 22 pips on the day.
The U.K.'s relatively strong fundamentals really seem to be catching the market’s attention. It’s already trading at two-month highs against the dollar! Some even say that what we’re seeing is a reflection of the market’s speculation on an early rate hike from the Bank of England.
In any case, we’ll have more information to work with today as the Public Sector Net Borrowing report is due at 8:30 am GMT. Forecasts expect a -3.7 billion GBP deficit following the previous month’s surplus of 10.2 billion GBP.
Then at 10:00 am GMT, we’ll take a look at the CBI Industrial Order Expectations index, which is slated to rise from -12 to -8. Should these reports print upside surprises, it could lend further support for the pound, so you may want to tune in for their releases.
Take a look at that doji on GBP/USD! The pair traded as high as 1.5718 and as low as 1.5650, but it eventually settled just 3 pips lower at 1.5673. Let’s see where it’ll go today!
The U.K. public sector net borrowing report disappointed the markets by showing a surprise deficit in the country’s public finances. As it turns out, spending rose last month. Normally, this would be good news, but you have to remember that the government is actually trying to cut costs!
Fortunately, the bad vibes from this report were offset with a stronger-than-expected showing from the CBI Industrial Order Expectations index, which rose from -12 to 0 in August, amidst forecasts that called for a reading of -8. The report confirmed that manufacturing output had reached its highest level in two years! Looks like the U.K. recovery really is gaining steam, eh?
No major reports coming out today, but the euro zone and the U.S. have some notable releases on the economic calendar. Check 'em out, homies!
Where did Cable go yesterday? To a new intraweek low, apparently. After trading within a relatively tight slightly upward horizontal channel for the past several days, Cable was sold-off heavily yesterday. The pair began the day at 1.5673 but ended the U.S. trading session at 1.5587.
No data was released from the U.K. yesterday but today we’ll be seeing a few important pieces of data. At 8:30 am GMT, the second estimate of the U.K.'s Q2 2013 GDP will be released, as well as the BBA Mortgage Approvals report.
Market participants expect that GDP report to confirm the initial forecast of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the number mortgages approved by the BBA is anticipated to be at 38,800, which is slightly higher than the previous month’s 37,300.
The pound traded up, down, and all around against the dollar. GBP/USD reached a high of 1.5639 and traded as low as 1.5538, but it eventually settled at 1.5582.
You’d think that the markets would show a bit more love for the pound after the U.K.'s GDP growth for Q2 2013 was revised upwards from 0.6% to 0.7%, but that wasn’t the case! It only lifted the British currency temporarily. Looking at the details of the report, it appears as though manufacturing, construction, and strong exports boosted output last quarter.
In other news, the BBA mortgage approvals revealed that a total of 37,200 new mortgages were approved last month, just under the 38,800 consensus forecast. Meanwhile, preliminary business investment clocked in a growth of 0.9% last quarter, amidst predictions that called for a mere growth of 0.6%.
Today, U.K. banks will be closed in celebration of the summer bank holiday. Unfortunately, the economic calendar looks light for the U.K. for the rest of the week, as we’ll have to wait for the CBI realized sales report on Wednesday for our first taste of U.K. data. Until then, y’all should sit tight and set your eyes on the U.S. across the Atlantic for possible catalysts to move GBP/USD!
Another slow day for Cable! The pair never traded more than 50 pips away from its opening price of 1.5570. After a spiking up slightly at the start of the New York session, price eventually settled at 1.5577.
With our homies up in the U.K. celebrating a bank holiday, it wasn’t all to surprising to see that action on pound pairs was pretty limited. But today, things should pick up as traders return from their long weekend. Don’t be surprised to see heightened volatility around the London open!
No reports on tap today, but keep in mind that BOE Governor Mark Carney is set to deliver a major monetary policy speech tomorrow. Traders may start pricing in their expectations ahead of the big event, so stay on your toes!
The pound didn’t escape the bloodbath that we witnessed across the high-yielding currencies yesterday as the lack of U.S. reports made it easy for the bears to drag the pound lower against the Greenback, the yen, and even the euro. What gives?!
The bears had a firm hold on the pound’s price action from the beginning of the day as traders priced in the overall risk aversion in the markets as well as a possible dovish speech from BOE head honcho Mark Carney.
Yep, Carney is set to take center stage today! At 11:45 am GMT he is scheduled to make his first big speech about the central bank’s monetary policy. Based on the pound’s price action yesterday, the market junkies aren’t expecting hawkish remarks anytime soon. Still, Carney has surprised the markets before and there’s no reason that he can’t do it again today! If you can’t wait until 11:45 am GMT though, you can always watch out for the CBI realized sales data out at 10:00 am GMT.
I’m seeing red! The pound’s bleeding didn’t stop yesterday, as GBP/USD sank to a low of 1.5429 while GBP/JPY tumbled to the 151.00 area. Will it be able to recover today or will the selloff continue?
U.K. data actually came in better than expected as the CBI realized sales index climbed from 17 to 27, higher than the consensus at 19. However, this was ignored by most pound pairs as risk aversion still reigned supreme in the markets.
The British currency did get a chance to bounce back during Carney’s speech though, as the BOE head talked about his optimistic outlook for the U.K. economy. Although he mentioned that the central bank still has the option to ease monetary policy if necessary, he also pointed out that growth prospects are looking very solid at the moment.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today, which suggests that pound trading could be very sensitive to market sentiment. Make sure you keep close tabs on any updates regarding the conflict in Syria and the possibility of a military strike, as these could keep risk-taking in check for the rest of the day. Good luck!
Make that three in a row! Once again, GBP/USD closed lower on the day, as it finished at 1.5508, 22 pips below its opening price. Now that it is approaching a key support line though, will we see the bulls come charging back?
One reason why GBP/USD pushed lower yesterday was due to the a relief rally in USD/JPY. Apparently, the possibility of a concentrated military strike by the U.S., U.K., and France against the Syrian government seems to be fading, and this has helped boost USD/JPY and in turn, allow the dollar to rally across the board. This serves as a reminder that sometimes, we need to pay attention to other currency pairs because their moves can have a ripple effect across the market.
For today, we’ve got some second tier data headed our way in the form of the net lending to individuals monthly report, which is set for release at 8:30 am GMT. Expectations are that 1.7 billion GBP was lent to consumers last month, which would be a slight increase from the month before. Keep in mind that this would mark the highest level since January this year and that if this continues to trend higher, it would be a sign that consumers are more comfortable taking on debt to finance their spending.