Better-than-expected mortgage approvals data? Meh. The pound didn’t get much support from its mixed reports last Friday, so GBP/USD and GBP/JPY still ended up in the red. What exactly influenced the pound’s price action?
The U.K.s reports didn’t help, that’s for sure. Although mortgage approvals showed improvement, Nationwide’s house price index report showed a steady pace of growth (0.6%) while net lending to individuals disappointed expectations for the month of July. Not only that, but demand for the pound also took a hit as traders priced in a possible dovish remark from Carney this week.
Today’s a busy day for the U.K. as the manufacturing PMI is due for release at 8:30 am GMT, followed by the BRC retail sales monitor at 11:00 pm GMT. The manufacturing report is seen to print a slightly lower reading than last month, but watch this one closely in case it shows an upside surprise that might help the pound get off its lows!
All gaps get filled! After opening higher after the weekend, GBP/USD closed the gap yesterday when it tumbled from a high of 1.5592 to a low of 1.5531. GBP/JPY had a much better trading day, as it jumped out of consolidation and edged 5 pips close to the 155.00 handle.
Good news came out of the U.K. yesterday, as the country’s manufacturing PMI climbed from 54.8 to 57.2 in August, marking its fastest pace of increase since the Backstreet Boys were in town! Not only did the report print its sharpest climb in nearly 20 years, it also chalked up its fifth consecutive monthly expansion and its highest reading in two and a half years. Way to go, U.K.!
It will be the construction sector’s turn to release their PMI figures at 9:30 am GMT today. Analysts are expecting to see an improvement from 57.0 to 58.4, which would reflect a stronger expansion for the month of August. Given the strong rise in the manufacturing sector, a good upside surprise might be likely for the construction sector and this could allow the pound to stay afloat against its counterparts today.
Bear in mind though that risk aversion and speculations on the Fed taper are currently lifting the U.S. dollar against most of its counterparts recently, so keep your eyes and ears peeled on any updates concerning these themes as it would affect GBP/USD movement.
Better-than-expected data? So what?! The currency bears shrugged off a strong U.K. data and continued to buy the Greenback instead. Good thing that the pound managed to clock in gains elsewhere!
Yesterday the U.K. made its second strike in the markets when its construction PMI printed better-than-expected. The data showed a 59.1 reading, stronger than the previous 57.0 print.
Unfortunately for Cable traders, the pair only inched 20 pips higher since investors were also gung ho about the Greenback. The pound DID manage to clock in gains though, which is evident in pairs such as EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY.
The last of the PMI trio, the services PMI, is on tap today at 8:30 am GMT. The report is expected to show a slight decline, but you also shouldn’t discount another upside surprise!
Saddle up, fellas! The pound looks ready for a good race! GBP/USD zoomed north to a high of 1.5646 while GBP/JPY rallied to the 156.00 mark, as data from the U.K. turned out better than expected. Let’s take a look at the recent U.K. reports.
The services PMI for August, which was projected to dip from 60.2 to 59.3, defied expectations and climbed to 60.5. This shows that the services sector, which contributes a lot to U.K.'s overall economic activity, had a faster pace of expansion for the previous month. If you’ve been keeping track of the PMI releases this week, you’d know that all three sectors - manufacturing, construction, and services - posted stronger than expected results! No wonder the pound is in a good mood!
Today’s BOE interest rate decision should show whether central bank policymakers are impressed with the recent developments in the U.K. or not. No monetary policy changes are expected for now, as Carney has already laid out the BOE’s plans for interest rates and asset purchases for the foreseeable future, but it would be interesting to see how Carney’s actual statement could affect pound pairs. If you’re not ready to handle additional volatility, better stay on the sidelines during the event at 12:00 pm GMT!
What a snoozer! The BOE didn’t release any statement with its monetary policy decision yesterday, which prompted traders to trade pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/GBP based on the pound’s counterparts’ price action. What’s up with the lack of details anyway?!
Yesterday the Bank of England kept its rates steady at a record low of 0.50% and its asset purchases at 375 billion GBP. Unlike Carney’s first two policy decisions though, this one wasn’t accompanied by any statement. Despite that, the pound was able to post small gains against its counterparts as traders took the BOE’s silence to mean that the central bank members aren’t committed to their forward guidance policy as they initially were. I guess we’ll just have to wait for the MPC meeting minutes for confirmation!
At 7:00 am GMT today we’ll see the U.K.’s Halifax house price index, followed by the country’s manufacturing production, trade balance, and industrial production numbers at 8:30 am GMT. These potential big hitters are only hours away from the U.S. NFP report, so you better make your trade adjustments quickly!
Down but not out! GBP/USD sold off during Friday’s early London session, falling to a low of 1.5565, then got back up on its feet and jumped up to a high of 1.5682 during the New York session. What was that all about?
The U.K. printed weaker than expected reports during Friday’s London trading session, with the manufacturing production data and trade balance both falling short of consensus. Manufacturing production posted a mere 0.2% uptick instead of the estimated 0.3% increase while the trade surplus widened from 8.2 billion GBP to 9.9 billion GBP, reflecting a drop in export activity.
However, the tides shifted when the U.S. printed a bleak jobs report, allowing GBP/USD to recover to its intraweek highs. Will Cable be able to hold on to its gains though?
There are no reports due from the U.K. today, which suggests that pound action could go either way! Its biggest report for the week is probably the claimant count change release on Wednesday, as it would reveal how hiring fared for the month of August. On Thursday, watch out of the BOE inflation report, which should shed light on the economic outlook of central bank officials.
Looks like momentum is still on the bulls’ side! GBP/USD and GBP/JPY both reflected the pound strength seen in the markets despite the lack of major data from the U.K. What could have pushed the pound higher?
Well, we certainly can’t forget last week’s trio of positive PMIs! Although the U.K. printed some weak reports last Friday, some traders are still more optimistic over the pound’s prospects than the other higher-yielding currencies.
Will U.K. data help the pound today? A few hours ago the RICS house price balance printed a 40% growth, higher than last months’ 37% uptick. Then, later today we’ll see the U.K.’s 30-year bond auction, which could give hints on how much more cheaper of expensive U.K. debt would be.
Check out the pound lookin’ fly like a G6! GBP/USD soared past the 1.5700 major psychological level yesterday, as the pair reached a high of 1.5743. GBP/JPY also ended the day in the green after it closed roughly 200 pips above its 156.53 open price.
Strong U.K. data, combined with the improvement in risk sentiment, lifted pound pairs in yesterday’s trading. The U.K. RICS house price balance printed an eye-popping 40% increase, higher than the estimated 38% jump, while the previous month’s figure was upgraded to show a 37% rise. This simply means that 40% of housing surveyors reported increases in home prices in their areas, reflecting strong home price inflation in the nation.
Today’s set of reports could have a larger impact on pound movement, as the U.K. gears up to release its claimant count change for August. After dropping by nearly 30K in July, the number of jobless claimants is expected to post another decline for August, effectively keeping their unemployment rate stable at 7.8%. Analysts are expecting to see a 21.2K drop in claimants, but a larger than expected decline could be very bullish for the pound. Keep an eye out for the actual release at 9:30 am GMT!
The pound blasted off for another day yesterday as a positive report attracted the currency bulls all around GBP/USD broke above 1.5800 for the first time in eight months while EUR/GBP fell to an intraday low below .8400. Booyah!
The pound bulls brought their A-game yesterday after the U.K.’s unemployment rate dropped from 5.8% to 5.7% while the jobless claimants dropped by 32,600 instead of the expected 21,200. This, together with last week’s triple upside surprises in PMIs, supported talks that the U.K. economy is on a fast track to recovery.
Will Carney do something about the pound’s gains? At 9:00 am GMT he and his BOE friends will talk about the inflation and their economic projections. Word on the street is that he might try to talk traders out of being too optimistic on the economy, so y’all better watch your long pound trades closely!
It ends at four! Cable took a break from its winning streak yesterday, as the pair closed 17 pips lower than its 1.5822 open price. GBP/JPY also took a breather when it slid back to the 157.00 level. Is this just a retracement or could it be the start of a reversal?
Based on the remarks made by BOE officials yesterday, it looks like the pound could be in for more gains! During the inflation report hearings, BOE Governor Carney and a bunch of other members of the MPC expressed their confidence that the economic recovery in the U.K. has gained momentum. Although Carney emphasized that the BOE isn’t likely to tighten monetary policy over the next couple of years, he did mention that they would have no problem with hiking interest rates if needed.
There are absolutely no reports due from the U.K. today so this upbeat sentiment from Carney and his men might keep pound pairs afloat for the rest of the day. If you’re trading GBP/USD, make sure you watch out for the release of U.S. retail sales data during the New York session!
Keep them pips coming! The U.K. didn’t need any economic report to extend its gains last Friday. Cable and Guppy showed significant gains with GBP/USD closing 71 pips higher than its open price. Oh yeah!
Optimism from the not-so-dovish Carney speech as well as the latest upside surprises in the U.K. reports gave the pound bulls the momentum they need to push the currency higher despite the lack of economic data. Of course, it didn’t hurt that the other major economies are printing mixed results in their respective economic reports.
Only the BOE quarterly bulletin at 11:00 pm GMT is due for release today, but you could wait for potential big hitters such as the CPI report tomorrow at 8:30 am GMT and the MPC meeting minutes also at 8:30 am GMT on Wednesday. And let’s not forget that the big retail sales report is due around the same time on Thursday!
Cable extended its winning streak yesterday but came short of testing the 1.6000 major psychological level. GBP/JPY, on the other hand, was stuck in its range as it held on to the 157.50 minor psychological handle. Which way will pound pairs go today?
Stronger than expected housing data from the U.K. helped lift the pound at the start of Monday’s trading, as Rightmove’s HPI report revealed a 1.5% decline in house prices during the summer but showed a significant upgrade in house price forecasts. The agency expects a 6% increase in house prices for the year, thrice as much as their initial 2% estimate, as they predict a strong turnaround in the last few months of 2013.
Today could be a volatile trading day for pound pairs, as the U.K. is gearing up to release its annual CPI figures. The headline reading is expected to dip from 2.8% to 2.7% while the core figure could rise from 2.0% to 2.1%. A higher than expected inflation figure might help the pound sustain its gains, as an above-target annual CPI figure might prompt the BOE to consider reducing its bond purchases sooner.
Are the tides turning for the pound? GBP/USD and EUR/GBP showed hesitation and pound weakness yesterday following the release of the U.K.’s CPI report. Why did the report have such an impact anyway?
Yesterday the U.K.’s headline CPI came in at an annualized rate of 2.7%, which is what many had expected anyway. The core figure also came in at 2.0% instead of the widely-expected 2.1% growth. Unfortunately, the relatively muted increase in consumer prices means that the BOE has room to inject stimulus should the members decide to do it.
Will we see more pound losses today? At 8:30 am GMT the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee will release its meeting minutes. While the bank didn’t change anything from the previous month’s plans, it would be interesting to see exactly how many members are thinking of adding to, removing, or retaining the bank’s stimulus plans.
Ka-ching, ka-ching! A couple hundred pips in the bag! Thanks to the downbeat FOMC statement, GBP/USD jumped from the 1.5900 area to a high of 1.6123, before ending the day at 1.6113. Will the pound be able to hold on to its recent gains and go for more?
Cable got a lot of fuel for its rallies yesterday, as the BOE meeting minutes turned out more hawkish than expected while the Fed statement was a huge disappointment. Apparently, BOE policymakers were still unanimous in voting to keep interest rates and asset purchases unchanged, as there were no signs of dissent at all! MPC members also took note of the recent improvements in the U.K. economy, citing more potential upside for growth.
Meanwhile, the FOMC’s decision against tapering bond purchases sparked a massive dollar selloff, much to the benefit of the pound. The Fed also revised its growth forecasts lower and pointed out that employment and inflation are still far from reaching its targets.
U.K. retail sales and CBI industrial orders expectations are up for release starting 9:30 am GMT today. Consumer spending is projected to post a 0.4% uptick for August, weaker than the previous month’s 1.1% rise. A higher than expected reading, which could be a result of the recent strong gains in hiring, could help Cable extend its rally. CBI industrial orders expectations are also likely to see an improvement from 0 to 2 this month.
That was quick! Thanks to one negative report, the pound quickly gave up some of its intraweek gains against its counterparts. GBP/USD fell by 83 pips while EUR/GBP shot up by 55 pips. What report was this anyway?!
It’s the retail sales numbers, of course! Yesterday it printed a 0.9% decline for the month of August after rising by 1.1% in July. Unfortunately, the decline is also the fastest in ten months. The CBI industrial order expectations showed a reading of 9 after the previous month’s 0, but it wasn’t enough to offset the bulls’ drive.
Only the public sector borrowing report at 8:30 am GMT is scheduled for today. Market geeks expect to see it at 11.9 billion GBP, a strong surplus from last month’s 1.6 billion GBP deficit. Will the report cause more woes for the pound?
Friday wasn’t a good day to be a pound bull, as the British currency kept reeling from the previous day’s disappointing retail sales release. GBP/USD edged lower and dipped briefly below the 1.6000 major psychological support while GBP/JPY slipped to the 159.00 area.
Data from the U.K. actually came in better than expected on Friday, with the public sector net borrowing report showing an 11.5 billion GBP surplus. This was lower than the estimated 11.9 billion GBP public borrowing figure but worse than the previous month’s 1.1 billion GBP deficit. This basically means that the U.K. government’s spending was higher than their income for the month, which isn’t a good sign for their finances.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today but do watch out for the speech of MPC member Broadbent at 7:00 pm GMT. He is set to give a speech at the London Business School and might drop a few hints on future monetary policy plans.
There are still a few speeches lined up for tomorrow, as MPC members Miles, Tucker, and Bean are all scheduled to give testimonies. BBA mortgage approvals are also up for release tomorrow.
Wednesday has the CBI realized sales data due while Thursday has the Nationwide HPI, final GDP reading, and U.K. current account lined up. On Friday, the U.K. will release its GfK consumer confidence report.
The pound’s price action was as mixed as the colors of my favorite cereal as there was no economic report to influence the pound’s direction. Cable popped up by 40 pips but Guppy also slipped by 28 pips.
The U.K. didn’t print any economic report yesterday, so the pound mostly traded on its counterparts’ price action. Weak euro zone prospects weighed on EUR/GBP, overall yen strength pulled GBP/JPY, and the lack of dollar demand pushed GBP/USD higher.
At 8:30 am GMT today we’ll see the BBA mortgage approvals, which is expected to increase from 37,200 to 38,600 in August. Then, starting at 10:30 am GMT a couple of MPC members are scheduled to take center stage. David Miles is up first, followed by Paul Tucker at 12:45 pm GMT and then Charles Bean at 5:00 pm GMT. Any optimism from these members could push the pound higher, so make sure that you listen or read about what they have to say!
The pound looked a little heavier than usual yesterday, with GBP/USD sliding down to a low of 1.5955 and GBP/JPY dipping to a low of 157.34. What was that all about and will it have a chance to recover today?
BBA mortgage approvals came in slightly weaker than expected for August at 38.2K, which is still a decent improvement from the previous month’s 37.4K. In fact, mortgage approvals are at their highest level since December 2009! This reflects a healthy demand for home loans, which could soon have a positive impact on construction activity and overall economic growth.
Meanwhile, speeches by a few BOE policymakers showed that central bankers are comfortable with the current level of stimulus. MPC member Miles remarked that the economic recovery remains shaky but he doesn’t see the need for more asset purchases at the moment while Broadbent mentioned that a faster pace of decline in the jobless rate might push the BOE to reduce stimulus.
Only the CBI realized sales report is due from the U.K. today and it is expected to show a drop from 27 to 24 for September, reflecting a drop in sales volume. Watch out for the actual release at 11:00 am GMT since a stronger than expected reading might provide support for the pound.
SCOOOOOORE!!! The pound clocked in more wins against its major counterparts yesterday after a U.K. report exceeded analysts’ expectations. GBP/USD jumped by 80 pips while GBP/JPY also rose by 30 pips. Aww yeah!
Yesterday the U.K. printed its CBI realized sales report, which clocked in at 34, its fastest pace in FIFTEEN months. This report came at the heels of the other better-than-expected news data that we saw last week. Guess the MPC members were right to hint at flexibility in their forward guidance, huh?
Today’s another big day for the pound as the current account report is due at 8:30 am GMT along with the final quarterly GDP. The GfK consumer confidence data is also up today at 11:05 pm GMT. The report is seen to print better numbers than the previous month, but don’t discount the possibility of weak numbers!
Check out the 1.6000 handle holdin’ like a boss! GBP/USD was unable to sustain its previous rally, as the pair fell to a low of 1.6002 after reaching a high of 1.6096. GBP/JPY chalked up more losses when it let go of the 159.00 handle and dipped to 158.11.
The U.K.'s current account balance came in weaker than expected for the second quarter of 2013, as the actual reading showed a 13.0 billion GBP deficit, larger than the estimated 11.2 billion GBP shortfall. On top of that, the previous period’s balance was revised from a 14.5 billion GBP to a much larger deficit of 21.8 billion GBP.
As for the final GDP reading for the quarter, the figure stood safely at 0.7%, with no revisions at all. What surprised market watchers though was the 7.3 billion GBP downward revision in the Q1 figure, which then worsened the pound’s selloff.
Only a couple of medium-tier releases are lined up from the U.K. today. These are the Nationwide HPI, which is projected to show a 0.5% increase in house prices, and the index of services for August. Another round of bleak figures could weigh on the pound and possibly trigger a break of the 1.6000 handle on GBP/USD, so y’all better keep tabs on these reports due 7:00 am GMT.