Winner winner chicken dinner! The pound was one of the kings of pips last Friday as it posted gains against its major counterparts. What spurred on the pound bulls this time?
Let me count the ways. First of all, the Nationwide house price index report came in at 0.9%, which is way better than the expected 0.5% growth. Of course, it also didn’t hurt that BOE Governor Mark Carney was quoted by a newspaper saying in a meeting that he doesn’t think the U.K. needs stimulus anytime soon.
Let’s see if the pound bulls can sustain their gains today when the individual lending numbers and mortgage approvals report are released at 8:30 am GMT. Also keep your eyes peeled for the triple combo of manufacturing, construction, and services PMI due this week.
Ka-ching, ka-ching! The pound bagged another set of gains against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen in yesterday’s trading, with GBP/USD climbing to the 1.6200 handle and GBP/JPY bouncing back to the 159.00 area.
Medium-tier U.K. data came in line with expectations yesterday, allowing pound pairs to carry on with their rallies. Net lending to individuals landed at 1.6 billion GBP, slightly higher than the previous month’s 1.5 billion GBP figure, while mortgage approvals had a 62K reading.
The U.K. is set to release its manufacturing PMI for August at 9:30 am GMT today and possibly show an improvement from 57.2 to 57.5, reflecting a stronger pace of expansion in the industry for the month. The report has been churning out stronger than expected readings for the past five months so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another good figure this time around. If that’s the case, the pound has a solid chance at extending its recent run.
Is the party over for the bulls? The pound lost pips against its major counterparts yesterday after a major U.K. report surprised to the downside. GBP/USD closed well below its intraday highs while GBP/JPY saw steep losses.
The pound got a good start early in the day when it strengthened at the news of a U.S. government shutdown. The good vibes didn’t last long, however, when the U.K.’s manufacturing PMI came in at 56.7 instead of the expected 57.5 reading. If you remember, the report hasn’t failed to exceed its expectations in months.
Will this be the trend for the pound pairs this week? Next up for today is the construction PMI at 8:30 am GMT. The report is estimated to come in at 60.1 from last month’s 59.1 reading, but y’all better prepare just in case we see another disappointment!
After dipping to a low of 1.6163, Cable is back to its rallying ways. The pair simply made a quick pullback then resumed its northbound course, as it drove to a high of 1.6252 later on. GBP/JPY, on the other hand, was unable to make any headway past the 156.00 handle.
Data from the U.K. was weaker than expected yesterday, as the construction PMI fell short of expectations. Analysts were expecting to see a climb from 59.1 to 60.1 in August, but the actual reading landed at 58.9. Although this still indicates industry expansion, some were disappointed that industry growth wasn’t as strong as expected and was weaker compared to the previous month.
Despite that, traders were still more disappointed about the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which then spurred speculations that there will be no taper this month or probably for the rest of the year. This forced traders to move their money out of the U.S. dollar, giving GBP/USD a nice boost up the charts.
It’s the services sector’s turn to release their PMI at 9:30 am GMT today. A small dip from 60.5 to 60.4 is expected, but we might be in for another weaker than expected reading, as both the manufacturing and construction sectors have disappointed. Should the U.S. government shutdown extend for yet another day though, dollar aversion could still be enough to keep GBP/USD supported.
Party’s over, boys! The pound bulls took a breather yesterday as the pound saw losses across the board. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY ended up in the red while EUR/GBP shot above its .8400 support.
Yesterday we saw not only a disappointing Halifax house price index report, but also a miss in the services PMI data at 60.3 vs. 60.4 expectations. The services PMI miss was a minor one, but it did confirm the misses in construction and manufacturing PMI early this week and hinted that the U.K.’s recovery is losing momentum.
We won’t be seeing any report from the U.K. today, so you might want to pay extra attention to the dollar as well as risk sentiment.
All good things come to an end, don’t they? At least that’s what the British pound was thinking on Friday! After consecutive rallies, pound pairs chalked up a large decline as GBP/USD tumbled below the 1.6100 handle while GBP/JPY sank to a low of 155.80.
There were actually no reports released from the U.K. last Friday, but it appears that traders started doubting the economic recovery in the country. After all, PMI reports released from the manufacturing, construction, and services industry earlier in the week all came in short of expectations.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today so it will be interesting to see whether the pound can be able to recover or not. Traders could start pricing in expectations for the BOE interest rate decision later on in the week so y’all better stay on your toes!
Finally, a breather! With no major driver in the markets, the pound traders paid attention to the U.K.’s better-than-expected reports. GBP/USD was able to snatch a 67-pip gain while GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP also showed pound strength.
The U.K.’s BRC retail sales monitor only showed a 0.7% growth against last month’s 1.8% increase, but the RICS house price index more than made up for the disappointing data. The report showed that 54% of surveyors saw house price increases. If you remember, the report only clocked in at 41% last month.
Only the BRC shop price index at 11:00 pm GMT is on tap today, so watch out for other major news that might affect risk sentiment!
What in the world…? Pound pairs seemed to have a brief moment of panic yesterday, as GBP/USD suddenly spiked to a low of 1.6020 before recovering back above 1.6100 while GBP/JPY tested support at 155.50. What the heck happened there?!
As it turns out, an erroneous news report stating that the BOE implemented additional LTRO led to a sudden pound selloff. A few heart-stopping moments later, traders realized that it was just a routine repo operation completely blown out of proportion. Whew!
For today, the pound could be in for more action with the U.K. manufacturing production, BOE credit conditions survey, trade balance, and industrial production data all up for release. Manufacturing production is eyeing a 0.3% uptick while industrial production could show 0.2% growth after staying flat in the previous month.
Bear in mind that stronger than expected data could allow the pound to resume its rallies against its counterparts, even though last week’s set of PMI reports cast some doubts on the U.K. economic recovery. Weak data, on the other hand, could trigger a sharp selloff so stay on your toes!
K.O.! The pound got knocked out by its major counterparts yesterday as some major UK reports came out worse-than-expected. GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and even GBP/AUD ended up in the red while EUR/GBP extended its gains.
The pound started weakening in earnest when the U.K.’s manufacturing production showed a 1.2% drop instead of the expected 0.3% uptick. The day didn’t get any better when traders also saw that the nation’s trade balance numbers are way below expectations with a 9.6 billion GBP deficit against 8.9 billion GBP deficit estimates.
The numbers hinted that the U.K.’s recovery isn’t firing on all cylinders and that the BOE was right to keep its present stimulus programs in place.
Will the pound bulls get a breather today? The MPC is expected to announce their monetary policy decision at 11: 00 am GMT. While many aren’t expecting any changes, market players are looking for a possible accompanying statement that would give hints on the central bank’s next moves.
Bo-ring! GBP/USD’s movement was a snoozer yesterday, as the pair cruised around the 1.5950 minor psychological support. Should we expect a breakout soon?
The BOE decided to keep monetary policy unchanged as expected, maintaining its asset purchases at 375 billion GBP and its interest rate at 0.50%. Since this was already priced in, traders barely reacted to the actual release as many are probably waiting to see the minutes of the meeting before placing their bets on the pound.
Only the CB leading index is up for release from the UK today and a small uptick is expected, which might be enough to keep the pound supported against its counterparts for the day. Be mindful of potential profit-taking ahead of the weekend though!
Looks like the pound stopped being the golden boy of the currency markets! Although GBP/JPY showed pound strength, the currency didn’t fare so well with GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. What’s up with that?!
Last Friday the CB leading index showed a 1.2% uptick, which is a lot better than last month’s 0.7% increase. Unfortunately, traders were busy shorting the pound as the currency’s correction extended until that day.
Will the pound have a chance at regaining pips this week? The economic cupboard is empty for today but prepare for the inflation and PPI reports tomorrow; the employment numbers on Wednesday, and the retail sales report on Thursday. These are all potential big hitters, so don’t even think about passing up pound trades this week!
No economic reports from the UK meant a pretty tight trading day for the British Pound against most of the majors. Against the Greenback, there was quite a bit of choppiness, but it was held within a 65 pip range and closed the session near the day open at 1.5982.
Today’s price action may be a little more interesting with major tier one data in the form of the UK’s year-over-year CPI read (forecast at 2.6% vs. 2.7% prev.). We’ll also get reads from PPI Input m/m, RPI y/y, and HPI y/y at the same time as the CPI release.
Finally, MPC Member Weale is set to speak before the Treasury Select Committee in London, and while no hints of new monetary policy is expected, it is good to be aware of.
Consolidation was the name of the game for GBP/USD yesterday, as the pair found support around 1.5920 and resistance at 1.6000. Will it be able to make a breakout today?
Inflation reports from the U.K. were stronger than expected, with the headline CPI showing a 2.7% increase versus the consensus of 2.6% and the core CPI printing a 2.2% rise. This was enough to convince some traders that the BOE might be closer to reducing its stimulus sooner rather than later, which explains why the pound was able to stay resilient against the U.S. dollar.
U.K. jobs reports are up for release today so y’all better brace yourselves for some rocky price movement! The claimant count change is slated to show a 24.3K drop in claimants, which might be enough to keep the U.K. jobless rate steady at 7.7%. Stronger than expected figures could allow GBP/USD to break above 1.6000 while weaker than expected data might trigger a downside break so watch out for the actual release at 9:30 am GMT.
Now you see it, now you don’t! Just when we thought that the bulls would have their momentum from positive U.K. reports, the pound showed mixed price action instead. What’s up with that?!
Yesterday the U.K. released its employment numbers, which showed the unemployment rate at 7.7% as expected and the change in claimant counts at -41K, its largest drop since 1997.
So why didn’t we see a stronger pound rally? Well, details of the report revealed that the average hourly earnings only increased by 0.7% instead of the expected 1.0%. With the U.K.’s inflation at above 2.0%, consumer prices are basically rising faster than wages are. This could hurt household consumption in the long run.
Another possible reason is that we saw risk sentiment take over the markets during the U.S. session. As I mentioned in my USD update, investors loved it when hints of a debt ceiling deal made its way to the market grapevines.
Will the pound get its rally today? The U.K.’s retail sales report is due at 8:00 am GMT and is expected to show a 0.5% uptick after dropping by 0.9% in last month’s report. Good luck and good trading, kids!
Has the pound been on a new diet these days? Pound pairs seemed to have lost some weight and had an easier time floating up the charts, with GBP/USD hitting a high of 1.6173 and GBP/JPY soaring past 158.00. Is the pound in for more gains?
Better than expected U.K. retail sales was one of the main reasons why the pound was able to rally yesterday, as the report showed a 0.6% increase versus the estimated 0.5% rise. This was also a decent rebound from the previous month’s 0.8% decline, revised up from the initially reported 0.9% drop. Strong consumer spending figures mean good prospects for overall economic growth, which supports the BOE’s relatively hawkish outlook.
Another factor that boosted the pound yesterday was the risk rally spurred by news that U.S. lawmakers have finally passed a bill on extending the debt ceiling deadline and allowing the economy to avoid a default. This also means that the U.S. government shutdown is over!
The U.K. economic schedule is empty for today, which suggests that pound trading could depend on market sentiment. Stay on your toes for potential profit-taking as well!
Has the pound lost its charm? The pound bulls quickly went got off their post retail sales high as they pushed the currency in mixed directions. Does this mean that data-induced rallies are a thing of the past?
Not exactly. As I mentioned in my other updates, the markets just weren’t feeling like pushing the currencies in any definite direction while they’re processing the impact of the latest government shutdown and debt ceiling resolutions.
The U.K. isn’t scheduled to release economic reports today so watch out for Greenback sentiment and any news that might affect risk appetite!
Too fast, too furious? The British pound had enough of its sharp rallies that it edged lower against the dollar and moved sideways against the Japanese yen. GBP/USD slid under the 1.6150 handle while GBP/JPY was stuck around the 158.50 area.
There were no top-tier reports released from the U.K. yesterday, leaving the pound with no fuel for further rallies. The only report printed from the U.K. was the Rightmove HPI, which showed a 2.8% rebound in house prices from the previous 1.5% decline.
The U.K. is set to release its public sector borrowing figure for September at 9:30 am GMT today and possibly show a smaller figure of 10.4 billion GBP compared to the previous 11.5 billion GBP. A lower reading is generally positive for the pound, as it shows that the government incurred a smaller public debt for the period.
However, the reaction to this report might pale in comparison to the potential fireworks from today’s NFP release, which might drive dollar pairs into a frenzy during the U.S. session. A stronger increase in hiring is projected for September but a disappointing result might trigger another round of dollar-selling. Stay on your toes!
What a coup by the bulls! Thanks to overall risk appetite and a positive U.K. data, the pound ended the day in the green against the dollar and the yen. It wasn’t as lucky against the higher-yielding currencies though. What’s up with that?!
Yesterday we saw the U.K.’s public sector borrowing come in at 9.4 billion GBP, which is smaller than the previous month’s 10.8 billion GBP reading. It also helped the pound that a weak NFP report during the U.S. session boosted the higher-yielding currencies across the board.
Still, as seen in pairs like GBP/AUD and EUR/GBP, the pound is struggling to post gains against other higher-yielding currencies. Will that change today?
At 8:30 am GMT Mark Carney and his gang will publish the results of their votes on the BOE’s asset purchases and interest rates. More importantly, traders will pay attention to any signs that the BOE has lessened its optimism from last month before we saw disappointments in the U.K.’s reports.
Why, thank you BOE! Upbeat remarks from the British central bank helped the pound recover from its recent selloff, as GBP/USD bounced from a low of 1.6127 back above the 1.6200 mark and GBP/JPY managed to hold on to the 157.50 mark.
The minutes of the latest BOE monetary policy meeting revealed that policymakers were feeling optimistic about the U.K. economy’s prospects, as officials upgraded their growth forecasts. They also predicted that joblessness will fall faster than initially estimated, prompting several traders to foresee a rate hike as early as 2015. As expected, the votes to keep interest rates and bond purchases unchanged for the meantime were unanimous.
Up ahead, the U.K. is set to print its CBI industrial orders expectations for October. The reading is projected to climb from 9 to 10, which reflects higher volume expectations for the month. If you’re trading pound pairs, make sure you keep tabs on the actual release at 11:00 am GMT. Good luck!
Slow and steady wins the race! A weaker-than-expected U.K. report had no fight against the pound bulls’ resilience as they pushed the currency higher against the dollar, euro, and the yen.
Yesterday the U.K.’s CBI industrial orders expectations report caused mini heart attacks among the pound bulls when it showed a -4 reading when many had estimated the report at 10.
Luckily, Mark Carney came to the rescue some time around the U.S. session when he hinted that the BOE would continue stimulating the economy by lending for longer periods, accepting a wider range of collateral, and even cutting its discount window rate.
Today’s another big day for the pound as we see the U.K.’s GDP numbers for Q3 2013. With the country’s economic reports coming in better-than-expected lately, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GDP report also prints to the upside.