Forex Price Action

Just wondering what you guys think of the USD/JPY on th4 hr chart.

My Analysis is below, please comment if you agree or not.

  1. This is a pull back from the longer term downward trend
  2. This Pin bar is occurring at relative s/r level
  3. The pin bar finished is the bottom 1/3 of the candle.
  4. The Pin bar is obvious
  5. Not close to a big round number

Dislikes

  1. Pin is not extremely long.
  2. 3rd time testing the level
  3. Area of resistance about 30 pips away at 79.75
  4. It’s Friday 8 hours before close of the markets.

Final Trade Rating
B+


Happy Trading!

Hey PA’ers what you think about this setup…

GBP/AUD 4H :


2 BR @ swing high with trend…A+ setup?

I think that has already broken through support, which is now acting as resistance. So trading that 2BR would be trading right into that S/R pivot zone??? Just thinking out loud as I try better to understand all this. I think I would like to have seen the top of that 2BR touching the S/R line rather than the bottom.

I of course could be wrong!

Rob

Radicledog,

I actually took this trade - regardless difficulty to set SR line /its a bit busy there/ i am joining month long trend.

TP at 1.54365 which is quite safe i think. well above previous support.

I am still going through the thread, so you could be right - it may be a pure gamble :slight_smile:


cyberbob,

Looks like the trade is working out, that’s great!

i thought it was the best trade for this method presented today.
i wanted to catch it on a retrace but i was sorting out my charts…iv just found out about setting up profiles on mt4 today.
until you pointed this out …i didnt even have the chart up on my profiles…
so i missed it …but i think it was an A trade…
hopefully some meaty stuff will happen next week.

Radicledog,

Initially i hoped it will go straight down to previous pull back level, but after it started shrinking from 25pips down to 15, i closed it and called it a weekend. I generally dont like trading on fridays, currencies may slow down and loose volume. It is very noticable after London close.

BrinkFx,

I ll make it my habit to post any arising setups that are worth attention, this way we can all discuss it and gain confidence. Although some guys on this thread mastered it already :slight_smile: Well done.

I have been studying and testing PA for a few days.
Opportunities i see on charts are rarely A+
I am just curious, how many trades do you guys go into using pure PA, lets say on a weekly basis. My judgment supports trading action very rarely.

Since i began learning forex, and overused indicators and other magical tools, i made a decision to learn PA, thats how i fell into this great thread. And i must say, this is the most effective method i used by now. Candlesticks give great signals, although i used to get up to 80% profitable trades in the past /when using million coloued charts/.
Fair play to Jonathan for sharing his knowledge.

Hope you all enjoy the weekend.

I agree that I don’t think you’ll see too many trades using this method, 6 - 8 a month is what I believe, and there may be weeks that go by with no trade. I’ve only been demoing this for about 3 weeks now, found price action somewhere else before I came across this thread. At first I wanted to take every pinbar I saw… I can tell you that won’t work! Good thing it was fake money I was playing with. After reading through this thread I have a much much better understanding of what I should be looking for in setups. I didn’t see any trades this week, so I was beginning to question whether I was getting too conservative.

dudest hinted that there wasn’t too much in the way of setups this week, so I’ll keep watching… plus we have this thread to post what we see. I like seeing good and bad setups, I think you learn from both.

Just something to think about for the weekend…
EURAUD Daily

Recent Trend is down, so I’d like to see some price action around the yellow line at 1.26 telling me to go short, will it happen next week??? Are my S/R levels in the right place? I guess I’ll just have to wait and see.


Hi everyone,
I have other simple cases that confused me, hopefully somebody willing to help.


  1. The candle marked in purple color is a pinbar, correct? while the blue ones appear to be indecision bar right? and according to Johny’s PA, this setup is risky to be traded and more likely a rubbish setup, isn’t it?


  1. Do you guys often take trades after immediate retracement in old S/R after break? Or prefer wait the price create swing high or low?


  1. Do the pinbars’ wick affect the decision to jump in the trades? E.g you see above pinbar at swing high and resistance, what is your analysis?

4.Repeating previous question which is not answered yet, how you guys manage to trade in sideways trend?
5.How to apply PA in tight S/R range?

Thanks and regards,
Marcel

from what i have learned…
in your top chart…the first circled pin bar…is not exactly on the swing high…plus it is long but it does not stand out too much as it is not on the total high of the swing…on top of that price does not close within previous candle body…so it is not a proper pin bar

your second circled pin bar.
that is occuring near a swing low…so you would be traading straight into support …so that is not good…as we want to BUY LOW…SELL HIGH…and this is a selling signal…plus this pin bar body is not quite 3 times shorter than the wick …so it is not a proper pin bar.

your third circled pin bar …is more of an indecision bar…the lower wick is long …about half the size of the upper wick.
although this looks great…trading such set ups in the long run may lead to losses…so it is not A plus and not a pin bar.

question 2 …dont understand.

question 3
the pin bar in question …the body of the pin bar does not close within the body of the previous candle…plus the so called pin bar is facing into traffic it does not STAND OUT…so i dont think johnathon would think that is a grade A TRADE…and would just skip it completely.

question 4 and question 5.
i think johnathon waits for better set up than trading in sideways trend…as there can be a lot of traffic…this is also true for tight ranges…why not sit and wait for a better signal.

anyway that is my input to your questions…they may not be correct by johnathon…but i have answered them hoping that i am getting to grips with this system…take them with a pinch of salt.

Hi, I have the same S/R levels that you have. I have 2 scenarios in mind, depending on PA around 1.26 as it could go either way.
Will go short if good signal first ( A ) or long ( B ) if price breaks up through 1.26 then pulls back and finds support and gives a bullish PA signal.


Hi. 1. I would switch to the daily timeframe, and wait for the range to break either way then look for PA at relevant daily S/R levels.
2. I would prefer to wait as you said
3. Its an inverted pinbar at a swing high, not good. See FSO article about spotting fake/poor signals.
4,5. if range is on 4hr chart, same as 1

Thanks for the fast feedback, brinkfx and philwest!
I get it now!

@philwest
Switch to daily? You mean looking the trade opportunity in daily tf while observing the break in 4 hour chart?

hi guys. very interesting discussion happening in this room. i really enjoy it & learned a lot from here. I quick question. It seem that we need to hold position overnight where additional cost in “SWAP” need to be taking care of. How do we manage this?


Yes, personally I have s/r levels marked on my daily charts and will look for price action there for trade opportunity. I’ve highlighted the ranging as seen on your 4hr chart also but will just be observing the break of range.

You can open an account with zero commissions, although I don’t know what your worried about most brokers charge only a few dollars per each 100,000 traded or each standard lots on most pairs so not much big deal.

Johnathon

Thx buddy.