95% of ALL businesses fail, mostly for the same reasons.
Here are some reasons and how the relate to forex:
No business plan. Duh.
–A recent survey found 88% of forex traders have no written business or trading plan. I’m sure the 5% that make it all have a written strategy. Every single one.
Not following your business plan.
–This is pretty obvious but is probably super common among the 12% with a plan.
3.Not enough capital. A typical [U]successful[/U] blue collar business (in the US), like plumbing or electrical has a credit line of around $200-300,000. They survive growth and contraction this way. A great business plan will still get killed if there isn’t enough capital.
–Trading a tiny account is cool if you are learning and if you live in a country where everything is really cheap. Otherwise, it is a big hindrance. Trying to turn $100 into $1mill is pretty unrealistic because a tiny account encourages risky trades, over trading and a careless attitude. This puts all of us poorly funded traders at a big disadvantage. So save up. If losing $5 doesn’t mean anything, trade an account where $80 is on the line (that is 2% of a $4000 account) or $150 ($7500 account). The 2% has to really hurt if lost, and help if won, in order to make you wait for the right pitch. A larger account can handle drawdown, an inevitable part of trading.
Overhead too high. Getting a bigger office or garage in anticipation of explosive growth. The business advice is to wait until you absolutely cannot operate in the old space before upgrading, since the expected growth may not pan out and you are strapped with overhead.
–In my area, best case scenario, one needs a $25,000 account to live on forex winnings, if one is living a very simple life style. Best case scenario. Taking a draw on a small account is too much overhead and will whittle away earnings. Draw on it to buy some new computer monitors (a one time business expense) not to live on. Quitting one’s day job to trade before your account is ready is piling on overhead. That’s a lot of pressure to put on one’s self to perform.
Unforeseen occurances like illness, disaster, death in the family. A small business is dependent on the consistency of it’s sole proprietor.
–Don’t trade if your mind can’t be in the game. Death in the family, having a baby, Hurricane Sandy (that b****) or other things not in your control need to be accommodated.
could anybody plz explain the concept and difference between market structure and market flow coz it really confuse me and make me find on the wrong side of market direction
For the questoin on will ote hold? - I just read this an hour ago - so no background on it -but it “MAY” be usefull.
I read that if you pull your fibs for your intended ote ‘level’ - -and then pull fibs from a larger swing point - one of those lines should match up pretty close to a fib of original swing - this would be the ‘strongest’ point in which to expect it to hold.
(drawing two fibs from ONLY a different high point - keeping the SAME low point - for your confluence) and visa versa if going the other way - ( ONLY from a different low point keeping the SAME high point - for your confluence)
Higher bonds = higher cable and fiber
Lower bonds or higher USD alone = higher USD - the safe haven
Based on just the chart above - fiber up, cable down.
Obvious divergence on USD with the HH. We seem to have broken market structure to the the upside on the fiber and cable and it looks like the real deal. For this reason, maybe we’ll get a correction down early next week, maybe to 1.2880 or so but I’m pretty bullish and am in a serious buy program. Last time were in this area of the weekly, we bounced around 1.3172 and 1.2867 for a while. Maybe we’ll see some consolidation in the cable out of respect of the lower bond prices.
Am I right on this anyone:
4h market flow and structure = up
24h market flow = up
24 market structure = down still.
I’m using the indicator ICT gave for market structure and am not using the rules he used in trade plan 6 video.
SteveB, I dont have the answer to your question but I’m going to piggyback yours post with some of my own observations leading to me being unsure just as you are.
All three yields are “bullish” making higher lows since early August.
However, all three are in a downtrend since mid Sept. Now does that mean we should be looking for longs since we’re in a longer term uptrend or looking for shorts since we’re in the recent downtrend?
Also, the German bonds are the only ones to have made lower lows from the previous lows in early Oct. SMT Divergence? Do we take from that that we should be looking for UK bonds to trend lower as well?
I know I’m a newb but I’m torn between the short term saying we go short and the longer term still says its going long till we approach the lowest lows in July?
Dude Sorry. Higher bonds = Lower yield = lower EU , GU etc … basically what you have to remember is that bond PRICES are inversely proportional to EU/GU/AU…etc.
When bonds are doing well , money goes to them , which , = risk off. So that means , i would rather put my money in buying the USD than anything else. Conversely when bonds are down , money goes away from them , which , = Risk On … , which means , USD is passe…lets look at other places.
OTHER PLACES= higher interest paying currencies …No 1 = AUSSIE . which dosnt mean in a risk on scenario u jump into AUDUSD…all it says is sell the USD… and you pair that up with the best buy of the season… Euro/ Sterling / NZD Dollar/ etc etc…
Thanks to everyone for responding. Yes I am confused in much the same way as you BostonEJ, added to this I have found some seasonal data showing Euro rising in December. This makes me think that the Euro could correct to get more in line with the other two, but on the other hand it’s traded lower most of the year :31:
Se the below post for what I tracked down. The indicator ICT gives bases intermediate term highs as having a 5 candle fractal on either side and long term highs as having an intermediate high on either side. The indicator uses rules that are different than the description given in the trade plan part 6 video. This link has a screen shot and explanation + free spelling errors because I’m generous. I’m going with the indicator until I know otherwise.
Why is this so complicated? Peterma, do you have the video and section that describes the bond relationships. I need to go over it again. Thanks in advance.
On re-reading your post, I don’t see how you are correcting me.
I said yields down = USD up (safe haven) and EUR down. You seem to be agreeing with me.
Bond yields down = bond prices up = ???investors are buying them??? = USD down??
Bond yields up = bond prices down = ???investors are selling them or not interested in buying them??? = USD up??
Edit—
I see the issue. I didn’t say “yields” I just said “bonds”. But he original post had a screen shot of yields.
Still nice to have clarification. Yields are a tool to encourage buying. It indicates no one is interested in the bonds because they find a better return elsewhere. I guess that means if the yield is rising, buying might follow soon after resulting in an increase in currency value? If that’s true, my original post should be true. Peterma, help!
Aha! my favourite subject - the bond market - I’ve noticed many times that the bond markets seem to lead the forex, yet at other times (just to make it complicated) the reverse is true. Price movements at specific times seem to be important.
When trying to correlate the two it is easier have the bonds - US and German - mid term, say 10 yr, correlated with the USDX, this seems to give clues to price ahead, I’ve often seen that say usdx down later in gmt evening and bonds rising - sure enough a bullish bias for usdx next morning is good.
It is also easier to find bond PRICES online more often than yields - just equate prices with the usdx - bond PRICE up - usdx up.
Bond prices = safety, anything ‘risky’ happening in the world and investors fly to safety, - Govt Bonds.
As the PRICE (cost) of an item increases so therefore it’s profit (yield) decreases.
