as long as the BoE throws money out like its copy paper (250billion last week only) it wont happen. im annoyed a lot by the cebtral banks intervention and their “overdoing it” mentality since years. but evetythibg has a prize. soon these bills/checks that have been written out will be due for cash out abdcthat will hurt everyone of us.
If your long-term outlook is that a correction is in place, and the market continues to rally, wouldn’t you be salivating to sell @ higher prices?
Here’s how to play a crash:
Long volatility (VXX ETN, VIX Options, SPXS ETF)
Long 3x leveraged gold (UGLD)
Short the USD against everything
Puts against XLF, XLK
Leveraged calls against silver (SLV)
Buy the JPY against everything
Don’t mess w/ interest-rate products
Bet 1 farm, for a return of 10 farms. The more your position moves against you, the more you add to it.
Yes, me too…
Currently that S&P500 short went from +900 (and more) to -60, due to the stupid rally in ‘risk-on’
assets we saw in the last 24 hours…
I am holding short…
The Big Short
Yes, sadly you are right… but market cycles are bigger than the biggest banks, so we all know,
as you say, that even banks will run out of money, eventually
ah this is what i forgot to mention:
the fundamentals do stack up, unfortunately:
governments pushing money into stocks
stocks beeing the only alternative with bonds beeing miserable interests and other instruments beeing put down by either regulations or unretability
Thanks Jake,
great strategy…
I am still a forex person, just dipping into indices, and have no clue about options (maybe one day,
once I have enough capital).
I agree with gold, although it is at a channel top and retreating, so I may buy at lower prices
for the next leg up past the 1.30-1.33 area… Not sure about silver, as very expensive to buy
with my broker (37.00 per pip), so I will leave that one alone even if it has great potential.
I am confident of my correction play and have plenty of time, and as you can see from my
avatar, I am poised and enlightened by the waiting game, ready for the starts to align.
thats a great strategy. the big guys do it that way. but you have to stick to a low leverage in order to be able to survive the contras of your positions since its impossible to pinpoint a crash in its timing accurately enough. hard for a retail trader with limited capital especialy hard to have the patience to sit tight on its positions while waiting for the bang to happen.
I know, it’s crazy, I guess I mean that business cycle theory and central bank intervention are distorting
fundamentals beyond recognition…
or…
this is the ‘new normal’?
Absolutely,
when aiming for such wide swings, you are not going to aim for a 5m-chart entry level haha
unfortunately im starting to believe that its the new normal and we are running for a 20-30 years huge cicle of flat markets like we used to have after the great depression ranging into the 1960irs. its aswell connected to the demographic change which is happening in the western world
hey here the only profet that has always been right 100% in the long run on stock market and indices!!!
the true guru from the 1980ies!!
this is all you need to know to be sucessfull in trading stocks, indexes and commodities
Haha… Peterma knows this one very well
Lol, I’ve been singing that since mention of the ‘perfect storm’ that was being forecast back last year.
I remember Lexy’s post about shoe eating on the first page of this thread, but still Yazz would sing louder.
But, for the first time in many years the lyrics just don’t seem to fit my sense of outlook.
I was positive stocks this week only for two reasons, first that everyone was selling and secondly that most people expected Carney’s input and that he would wait until a reasonable bounce in cable.
But long term, here is where the difficulty exists, UK stocks are a much greater gamble, their only hope lies in the US stocks and the possibility that the Fed will hint at not hiking in the manner that the market has been expecting.
As things stands, although there is short term gain for many UK businesses, including myself, the longer term outlook is extremely uncertain - I don’t believe I have ever faced such uncertainty in almost 40 years of doing business.
Traders are often advised that to trade without a plan is unwise, I really believe that for politicians this same rule applies.
Nice post, Peterma…
I read today’s analysis of the bonds and debt allocation by central banks on ZeroHedge
The Greatest Misallocation of Capital (BUBBLE) in Financial History | Zero Hedge
and i think to myself…
We Are All F*cked
Btw, I’m not being negative, I’m an entrepreneur, I look to the positive in negative situations, create when there seems to be nothing.
The big difference today is that the trading environment/rules are being dictated by politicians who seem to have an agenda outside of economics.
On the one hand leading UK pro brexit leaders are saying we should wait until 2020 before enacting article 50, on the other side the EU trade commissioner is saying that article 50 must be triggered immediately and that upon such enacting, lawfully, only exit terms can be negotiated.
Seems she is technically correct, it is illegal to negotiate a trade agreement with a current EU member, we must wait until the UK exits, only then can there legally be negotiations, on a third country basis, on a trade agreement.
In the interim all trade between the UK and EU will be on WTO basis.
The most recent such agreement was with Canada, took over 7 years to complete and has yet to be ratified, likely another 2 years.
PipMe, I am lucky in that I can easily relocate to an EU country, it’s the guys that are embracing the change that I have most sympathy for - imagine that they actually believe the politicians
You are right…
It is a mess…
It’s tragic…in my country (Italy) taxes+bills have gone up exponentially in a very short time…I think in the region of 400%… People become desperate and business owners commit suicide… What sort of life is that?
Yeah, the uglier side capitalism perhaps.
Ireland suffered similarly in recent years, thankfully they pulled themselves from the pit so I suppose there is always light at the end of the tunnel.
I am often surprised at how opportunity seems to appear in the midst of gloom, so my hope is that such will happen yet again, all we can do in the meantime is wait and see
Yes, and I remember how the PM came out saying that Ireland was Britain’s closest trading neigjbour etc
so there would be good will and a juicy bailout handout…
British taxpayers funded Ireland’s £14bn bail-out - Telegraph
The Celtic Tiger was handed a milk bowl…