Macfibo system

[sufiansaid]

here I am again!!! Another loss with eurgbp this time!
I must be very unlucky…but since I started using MacFibo (10 days now) I have lost 152 pips…
My error is probably due to the fact that I’ve searched for different crosses trying to find the first that made a signal. Probably the best thing would be to concetrate only on one Cross (eurusd or gbpusd).
Please let me know why am I so unlucky???
Now I have one last chance because after that I must try something different.

Stop whatever it is you are doing. Read the document guide again, but really really read this time. Once you understand all the entry, exit and filter rules… Then you MANUAL backtest it with ONE pair that you want to test. 152 loss in the last 5-7 trades, if following the fundamental rule, should not happen with Macfibo. Yes, trading is sometumes about luck… But at most cases, you make your own luck if you know what I mean. Dont worry about it, its learning process. In your case, got nothing to do with being unlucky, you just broke basic rule… FOCUS ON ONE PAIR.

[sufiansaid]

Focus on ONE pair only. Test it thotoughly before you trade it live. Do not expect if Macfibo works well with pair X, means it will work with pair Y… I think ive state this very clear several times.

[kanmano]

hi sufi i have used macfibo to go short at.94440 took point (a) at .94518 and point (b) at.94998 pls can u comment on this

[kanmano]

sorry i forgot to tell u i have shorted usdchf

[apfrezza]

Focus on ONE pair only. Test it thotoughly before you trade it live. Do not expect if Macfibo works well with pair X, means it will work with pair Y… I think ive state this very clear several times.

Sufian, you are terribly right! I used to trade minilots and therefore the loss is still sustainable.
From now on I will only trade eurusd.
Regarding using demo account I am a little bit in disagree. In the past I created a trading system that earned a lot, really a lot, just using pivot points and very large stop losses but this is not applicable using real money because the risk is too high. Therefore is very important having a real account and trading mini or micro lots. Is more reliable.

[Fxdaselva]

hy sufiansaid,
i agree 100% with you on that last post. Here is a trade i did this morning that might made it clear for you apfrezza. i PLACED MY TP AT 127% (BECAUSE OF THE BLOKING RESISTANCE) AND MY SL WAS SET AT 23,6%. TOOK SOME GOOD PIPS OUT OF THAT ONE
I´ve been trading this system for 2 days and got 4 w out of 4 trades, which is prEtty impressive for a new guy like me. But i did made sure to read all the manual 2 or 3 times before i started doing it in a demo account.
Sufiansaid, i´m a bit worried about my sl levels, i don´t know if im putting it at a good level. Could help me please?
Thanks.

[apfrezza]

I don’t see those myself, but I do see an opportunity forming on EURGBP, short.

Of course I wrote wrong I intended Eurgbp…I did it and I loose

[apfrezza]

@Fxdaselva

hy sufiansaid,
i agree 100% with you on that last post. Here is a trade i did this morning that might made it clear for you apfrezza. i PLACED MY TP AT 127% (BECAUSE OF THE BLOKING RESISTANCE) AND MY SL WAS SET AT 23,6%. TOOK SOME GOOD PIPS OUT OF THAT ONE
I´ve been trading this system for 2 days and got 4 w out of 4 trades, which is prEtty impressive for a new guy like me. But i did made sure to read all the manual 2 or 3 times before i started doing it in a demo account.
Sufiansaid, i´m a bit worried about my sl levels, i don´t know if im putting it at a good level. Could help me please?

Thanks.

Hi fxdaselva,
I was looking at the picture you posted… However you made a mistake because you started the trade before the candle close. You should have waited a little bit. However it went good for you!

[Fxdaselva]

Hi fxdaselva,
I was looking at the picture you posted… However you made a mistake because you started the trade before the candle close. You should have waited a little bit. However it went good for you!

You are right I should of waited a bit more, do you see where it is going now? But sometimes, when I trade against the main trend, I take the trade 5 min. before the candle closes, Its bit more dangerous I think.

I´m still worried about the SL levels, I´m not sure if my small profits will be taken by a loss. How do you set your SL?

Thanks for answering!

[Fxdaselva]

hey jonny, thanks a lot for your repply.
Try to help me out here, so i dont make the same mistake again. I placed a pic to try to explain my point of view. The resistence bloking the 161% i was talkin about, is the top at 1,27189. Can you explain what i did wrong?

Once again tks a lot.

[kanmano]

thk u sufian 4 a good system though i m trading on demo i m learning and the mac fibo helps me i closed usdchf @.94320 on a mini lot i have read about money managment and i intend to carry my habits of demo int live trade

[sufiansaid]

Sufian, you are terribly right! I used to trade minilots and therefore the loss is still sustainable.
From now on I will only trade eurusd.
Regarding using demo account I am a little bit in disagree. In the past I created a trading system that earned a lot, really a lot, just using pivot points and very large stop losses but this is not applicable using real money because the risk is too high. Therefore is very important having a real account and trading mini or micro lots. Is more reliable.

I was not referring to trading demo but backtesting.

[sufiansaid]

MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 19/5/2012

Trade # 130

Pretty awesome trading yesterday. A Buy signal triggered in the first half of London session yesterday. I took the trade, put my SL at the usual place. Pretty solid 30+ pips.

It’s my third profitable trade in a row, and Macfibo have harvested 135 pips so far this month. Considering how Macfibo performed in April, at this stage of that month (18th April 2012), Macfibo harvested 122 pips… so far, May have been good so far in terms of net pips harvested.

Those who have followed this thread since it’s birth, I study pair’s daily range as well. One of the things I took note on why Macfibo did not perform as well as January and February 2012 (in terms of pips harvested) was the decreasing daily range for EURUSD. In April, the average daily range was a surprising 100.4 pips! This month, as of 18th May 2012, the average daily range is 93 pips… last month (as of 18th April 2012), the average daily range was 109 pips.

So what does it mean to Macfibo? : Macfibo system rely heavily on range like any trend following system (Yes, it doesn’t just rely on ‘trend’… whatever that means… but range as well). Without good range, it can’t harvest good pips. Though the winning percentage still maintains above 60% but the pip harvested decreased dramatically due to the dissapointing range.

Will Macfibo continue harvesting only 100-150 pips this month? Well, I really think so but I will not be surprised if we will be only harvesting 50-100 pips this month because the range for EURUSD have been dissapointing. As long as I won’t lose 50% of my account this month, I am happy. That is trading all about… it’s like business. You can’t expect to be profitable every month… :44:

[B]EURUSD MACFIBO SYSTEM STATISTICS (Updated 19/5/2012)

Avg Win : 31.1 pips
Avg Loss : 21.4 pips
Net Pips : 1735 pips
Winning Percentage : 66.2%[/B]

PDF attached in first page

[sufiansaid]

@Fxdaselva

hey jonny, thanks a lot for your repply.
Try to help me out here, so i dont make the same mistake again. I placed a pic to try to explain my point of view. The resistence bloking the 161% i was talkin about, is the top at 1,27189. Can you explain what i did wrong?

Once again tks a lot.

Your Point A : Your PT A is wrong. 5ema haven’t crossed 20sma at this stage. Here’s how to make it easy. I suspect you are confused what is crossed 20sma. Not the price but 5ema. IF price close above 20sma, next you check is wether 5ema is above (for buy) or below (for sell) 20sma, if not, then no signal yet.

Your Point B : Spot on!!

Your SL : It should be set at maximum 38.2%… but since you planned to TP @ 127.2, your SL should be atleast set in 1:1. If your TP is 20 pips, then your SL should be 20 pips or less. Macfibo fixed SL is set at 38.2% is because it represents 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Try again buddy. Keep practising. Manual backtest please.

[sufiansaid]

You are right I should of waited a bit more, do you see where it is going now? But sometimes, when I trade against the main trend, I take the trade 5 min. before the candle closes, Its bit more dangerous I think.

I´m still worried about the SL levels, I´m not sure if my small profits will be taken by a loss. How do you set your SL?

Thanks for answering!

Read the document again.

[Fxdaselva]

[B]Your Point A :[/B] Your PT A is wrong. 5ema haven’t crossed 20sma at this stage. Here’s how to make it easy. I suspect you are confused what is crossed 20sma. Not the price but 5ema. IF price close above 20sma, next you check is wether 5ema is above (for buy) or below (for sell) 20sma, if not, then no signal yet.

[B]Your Point B :[/B] Spot on!!

[B]Your SL :[/B] It should be set at maximum 38.2%… but since you planned to TP @ 127.2, your SL should be atleast set in 1:1. If your TP is 20 pips, then your SL should be 20 pips or less. Macfibo fixed SL is set at 38.2% is because it represents 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Try again buddy. Keep practising. Manual backtest please.

Ok brother, thanks a lot for making it more clear to me. I can see my mistake and I know how to do it now on. What is incredible about this system is even I made some mistakes finding point A, it still made me 4 w out of 4 trades. Just imagine what will happen when I get it right…you have done a great job friend. If you ever come to Brazil, you can know that you have made a friend around this parts.
Just let me ask you one more thing, do you think this system could stop working someday? If yes, which set ups should we ajust to make it profitible again? I don´t know if you have answered this before, but sorry if you did.

[reneblom]

Hello, last Friday I was free to live trade and for first time I traded MacFibo.
System: several pairs, not EURUSD not AUSUSD, 1 hour, 0.01 lot, only main signal, SL Fibo 38.2, TP Fibo 161.8, shoot & forget so no exit at 5x8.
At some hour crosses there were more than 1 entry opportunities. Then I took the first order by market price and the others by Limit orders at Fibo 100%. When during the pending order the 5x8 crossed, I deleted the order.
Results:
Open Time Type Size Item Close Time Profit
2012.05.18 11:51 sell 0.01 usdcad 2012.05.18 12:34 2.77
2012.05.18 11:05 buy 0.01 usdjpy 2012.05.18 12:53 -1.24
2012.05.18 14:59 buy 0.01 gbpjpy 2012.05.18 15:36 -4.38
2012.05.18 11:18 buy limit 0.01 gbpusd 2012.05.18 15:50
2012.05.18 15:00 buy 0.01 eurgbp 2012.05.18 16:11 1.63
2012.05.18 13:13 sell 0.01 usdchf 2012.05.18 19:04 3.05
Total profit: 1.83
Open Trades:
2012.05.18 12:00 buy 0.01 eurjpy 1.06

Now I see, that I made a big fault with GBPJPY: the BUY had to be SELL. And the other looser USDJPY was sleeping.
Lessons: double-check before enter order, don’t trade with small range.
Gr. René

[RKStelma]

Hey Sufian,

I have a question regarding the current signal that has just formed on the H4 chart on the EUR/USD. The H4 is signaling a buy, however, since the signal was created at the end of this past Friday and it is now Sunday (Here in Texas (U.S.)) does this still count as a valid entry? I do believe that this is a good buy because of the support at ~1.2620 from January’s low, but just wanted to make sure that it met the criteria for MAC-FIBO.

Thanks,

Kyle

[sufiansaid]

@RKStelma

Hey Sufian,

I have a question regarding the current signal that has just formed on the H4 chart on the EUR/USD. The H4 is signaling a buy, however, since the signal was created at the end of this past Friday and it is now Sunday (Here in Texas (U.S.)) does this still count as a valid entry? I do believe that this is a good buy because of the support at ~1.2620 from January’s low, but just wanted to make sure that it met the criteria for MAC-FIBO.

Thanks,

Kyle

I dont have a chart with me right now (on the road), does previous week’s high blocking 1.618? If yes, TP @ that resistance, if not, then you TP @ 1.618.

[RKStelma]

Thanks for the response. I believe that the previous week’s high looks good for the 1.618. If you get around your charts in the near future and see that you disagree, let me know and I can adjust my TP. Thanks again Sufian!