Guys I have been reading some of the comments and decided to post mine:
I have tried a few trade systems but only since using MACFIBO have I started to gain pips. Drawing support and resistance lines, Fibonacci lines all help to make the trade very successful however
Last week was quite a difficult week in my opinion for trading the EURUSD on the 1HR and 4HR time fames
A lot of the news affected my trades but I still I broke even last week but gained a lot of experience with how the news and fundamental analysis affects the markets. I subscribe to a few newsletters to receive market update information which I try to read the night before or early in the morning - Believe me this does help
Before I trade I look at the economic calendars to see what data might affect the EURUSD prince.
As a rule of thumb I never take trades unless I see a setup about to happen but check to see if anything might affect the trade and if there is news I wait
The EURUSD gained me 27 pips just based on information that was released so from a newbie learning the system MACFIBO. Does work and FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS can have a major affect on any trade.
Don’t get “stucked” too much with the system mechanically operated… last week was a really easy trading week, fundamentals only gave a help driving PA in the current trend direction and there was a bearish trend channel down, quite obvious on D1… Trading it was a piece of cake.
mkt structure and mkt flow was stricly DOWN: past week was to be taken as a full bearish one, avoiding all longs (surely on H1+ TFs)
Fundamental is not that important… not cos it doesn’t affect market, but simply cos technical analysis moves before fundamentals… we simply need to understand what market is telling us. Trading the fundamentals’ swing will get you too late in the trade.
So why news are so important and keeping eye on calendar is crucial (especially for swing and position traders)? Well to “predict” what mkt could do and in order to avoid trading in news moments when things are not so clear
Only H1, I’ve stated this many times in the thread. What broker do you use? Sometimes this can be one of the reasons (different closing time may cause different values in MAs and S/Rs). Can you share your complete log to me please so I can see where is the inconsistencies are?
Hi Sufian, I just started with your system and i find this very simple and interesting. I have a question, from the attached picture, we entered short when red(5 EMA) crossed below white(20 SMA) and we TP at 161.8 and SL at 38.2 fibo, if for example, let us say my TP is not met yet and red 5 EMA crossed above white 20 SMA but red and white are still below yellow, do we exit the trade? or we continue to ride the trend until the SL is stopped/ red crossed above yellow then we exit the trade?
Hello said
I am a little bit confused on which candlestick to choose after the 5ema crossover with 20sma. Should we choose the candlestick where the crossover occur or the next candlestick after the crossover? can you also guide me on the entry point to enter the trade? thanks
did any one trade eur/gbp yesterday i had 3 trades all 3 hit sl
when 5x20 and we pull the fib (up/down) what should the risk/reward ratio be to make it a valid entry many times i find the high//low for the fib hardly covers 10/12 pips
Today Macfibo earned me +98 pips on XAU :5:. Anyone got that too? Good system i must say although I am still doing it on demo, i am very happy with these few days results already.
I’m convincing myself everyday that, although MacFibo is a great system, it has a problem in trending markets.
I mean, if you look for example at eurusd in the last couple of weeks you will notice that mostly all the time that you started a trade using MacFibo, if it was a short trade you reached the target while if it was a long entry then, after some pips gained it reversed and very often you should have lost the trade.
Therefore I think that should be used something that in these circumstances tells you that during a strong trend movement then you should use 127% as target profit for the long entries and 168 (or maybe even 200) for short (in case of a downrtrend movement). My idea is to use the same principle of the 3 ducks system meaning that a downtrend is when prices are below the 60 sma on 4hr and 1hr chart, and is in a uptrend when prices are above the 60 sma both on 4hr and 1hr charts.
Let me get back to you on what I mean by inconsistencies. I am currently examining every one of your trades from January 1st 2012 to May 18th 2012 (all the trades listed on your PDF). And so far upon second check, your trade record does seem accurate. There were however a couple occassions where the charts could not explain a particular win/loss noted on your PDF, and a few times in which I noticed you broke your own rules regarding red/yellow crossing. You also made a few mistakes regarding session time (saying Asian instead of London) and a few times you said Main instead of Second etc, but that’s minor and obviously doesn’t bother me.
I will post a more complete analysis of your trade record shortly after I’ve gone through it completely. I’m examining each one of your trades very thoroughly. And I am also comparing your record with a hypothetical trader who takes ‘every single’ Macfibo signal. So far your discretionary Macfibo style is proving to be more profitable than the hypothetical trader who takes every valid Macfibo signal.
But here is my initial analysis - the Macfibo system was very successful during the first 2 months of 2012. This is undeniable. And I noticed that your big gains during the early months were largely a result of you ‘babysitting trades’ - in other words you followed price beyond the 161.8 TP during large bull/bear runs to pick up extra pips. But after March/April 2012 you seemed to stop doing this. Also, I’ve noticed that the Second entry trades you decide to enter have a very high probability of success. Your Second entries also represent a large portion of your overall pip wins. But, I also see very little evidence of you ever using S-SR lines in your decision making. You seem to [I]always[/I] be aiming for 161.8 on Main entries. However, I admit you might be using S-SR lines in deciding ‘not’ to enter trades…I don’t know. Pehaps you can tell us more about that in your own words.
I also agree on how you describe a system needing to be consistent. Macfibo has been consistent (not withstanding May 2012; which was a tough month for Macfibo overall), but it’s a system that requires a great deal of emotional control and for that reason might not be an ideal system for newbies. For example, entering a Main signal with large activation candles and a 161.8 TP far away from the 100.0 Fibonacci line takes a great deal of faith in the system and some serious [I]‘brass balls’[/I] quite frankly… because the potential losses could be enormous.
Anyhow, I will get back to you once my analysis is complete.
Hello Mr. Sufiansaid,
What would you do with this signal? I ask you because of the size of this candle, would you go long? If anyone whats to put theirs insites I will apricciate it.
Hi, if I can chime in, I’d say TP 127.2 and SL at 50.0 (or SL higher because the loss is potentially big)
But I’ve noticed through my analysis of Sufian’s trading record that he is not afraid to TP at 161.8 even on big activation candles.
Let’s hope Sufian answers your question. I’d be interested in hearing his thoughts too.
Btw, Sufian…I am EXTREMELY interested in seeing your updated trading record (the complete month of May). I want to see how your discretionary Macfibo fared this month.
Also, I’ve been backtesting Macfibo under the condition of only TP’ing at 127.2 on Main Entries and ignoring all Second entries. I’ve determined that the ‘average monthly profit’ would be between 70-90 pips…which is quite good in my opinion.
Thanks.
Update - Fxdaselva, it hit 127.2. That would get you 20-29 pips depending on where you placed Pt. B on the Fib line.
Man it is hard to have fear!! But, as the main trend is a bearish one, I was very afraid to go long after such a big acctivation candle!
Hey man, I´m really interested in your 127.2 TP statistics, do you have some kind of win/loss ratio for that? I´ll will start to back test it with the 127.2 tp to see how it looks like, but if you have more details please share with us. Do you keep a worksheet with the backtest data?
Thanks,
Yeah, my win/loss ratio for 127.2 TP is 76%, which is higher than Sufian’s win/loss ratio. However, Sufian’s Macfibostyle is ‘discretionary’ and he actually manages to pull in much higher monthly profits than my hypothetical 127.2 TP strategy which is purely mechanical. Furthermore this 76% win/loss ratio involves taking ALL valid main entry signals and paying no attention whatsoever to S-SR lines, trendlines or fundamentals or anything else. The 76% ratio also does not include any Second entry signals.
I don’t have a worksheet for my data except for lot’s of hand written material of my backtesting results. But yes, definitely backtest. Sufian has expressed at length the importance of backtesting.
Hi Johnnyfx, what SL have you used in your backtest? 38,2? I think tha 76% of win is really intersting but it’s important to know how much you lose in the rest ov 24%.
Yes jonhy, in my foward test results I´ve got almost the same win ratio as yours, using 127,2 as TP. I have done some backtesting, to make sure of the numbers, and it is the same.
One thing about profitability, as the 127,2 tp has a higher win ratio, but also a smaller pip reward, I think we could risk a little bit more, using more lots per trade, but maintaining the 1:1 to tp/sl. What do you thing?
Yes, I use 38.2 for SL, but…I will use 50.0 or 61.8 SL if the activation candle is very big because of the potential for loss will be huge if the trade does not go in my direction.
Hey, apfrezza I strongly urge you to backtest the month of “Dec. 2011”. I used 127.2 TP for that month, and I basically broke even. I think 161.8 TP would have done even worse that month So backtest Dec. 2011. After backtesting Dec. 2011 on both 127.2 and 161.8, I’ve subsequently lost a’lot of faith in the Macfibo technique…
During my backtests with 127.2 I used a fixed SL of 38.2 (or 50.0 or 61.8 if the activation candle was large), and I found that my avg. monthly pip profit was around 70-90 pips…which is not bad. Although Sufian was pulling in far more pips according to his trade record PDF. However, I recently backtested the month of Dec. 2011…and it was an absolute disaster. I basically broke even. And I think 161.8 would have done even worse. You should “definitely” backtest “Dec. 2011” as soon as possible. It was a killer month. And it just goes to show that Macfibo is not quite as consistent as I once thought. Maybe Sufian can make a remark about this.
I have trouble with internet for the past few days and I’ve not traded. Sorry for the silence for me. I will read all the posts and will try to answer/response as quickly as I can before my internet goes kaput again…
So backtest Dec. 2011. After backtesting Dec. 2011 on both 127.2 and 161.8, I’ve subsequently lost a’lot of faith in the Macfibo technique…