I think we can agree from your post, and from your previous posts across multiple discussions. You have no idea what you talking about in any of the subjects you have engaged yourself in. Which is fine, life is about balance and your on the arse end of it. For every winner there needs to be the loser, and this is where you come in.
If you want an opinion on Price Action, you get it from an expert in the field. Same way you would with a fundamentals or any other style of trading. There are uncountable styles and methods that successfully extract money from the markets. We might not agree with them as they contradict our style, but the results cannot be denied.
More than likely you don’t agree with half mindless dribble you post, and do it as a detraction from the reality which is your sad mundane life. At some stage in your life I hope you evolve as a human being, and excel in something worthwhile. You have nothing but my pity, but I know every human can make something worthy of themselves if they try. So good luck to you in all your future endeavors.
Forex market participants who are not traders but hedgers will take losing positions. They do not employ any techniques whatsoever to extract profits from the forex markets. This leaves a pool of cash for traders to win. So the traders compete with one another to win those losses. Market biases can develop and price trends can emerge. Quantitative trend following traders have defined and traded these price trends profitably for many decades. Their edge in the marketplace is a combination of analytic and strategic tools developed and updated from historical price data. Knowing prices is not their edge, planning how to react to emerging price developments is.
This is why prices don’t “immediately shoot off in the direction implied by the price action signal.” It is why you don’t “blink after a pin bar closed on your chart” and see the price “jump 50, 100, 200 pips”. The market is not composed of traders all looking to buy at one level and sell 50 pips higher. There are hedgers looking to get filled just a pip away, even though the trend is against their position.
(And this is only one reason why you don’t see that sort of phenomena. There are other reasons also.)
As I mentioned earlier, just continue with his naive type of thinking. You can easily spots how he drew S/R lines on his chart. I just don’t want to waste my time with him and no wonder he will say S/R don’t works. Even what he had posted, he can make a great U-Turn to make himself right, how this type of person can make good decision on live trading because he don’t even have the confidence on what himself trying to express on posting forum.
Lol. Results? Show me a single price action trader with a [I]transparent track record[/I] who has been consistently profitable for no less than 5 years.
All wonderful, lovely things to see in hindsight. “Oh, if I just manage to hop on a trend like that…” Trends and ranges appear to exist in a random set of data.
So they employ no techniques whatsoever? None at all. Then they are essentially trading randomly. Their trades are nothing more than noise to the market. How can you expect to read and react to randomness?
Even if the markets ARE random, trends do occur and traders can reliably trade them by cutting losers short and letting winners run. They define smaller moves in the trend with a quantified range and trade moves beyond that range keeping their stop out of the “noise” (the quantified smaller moves).
They are not trading, they are hedging. And it is not random. They take purposeful positions in the forex to offset currency risks associated with their operations.
I am 100% in it for someone who do consistently make a profit from such professionalism. (You mentioned speculation, but I wouldn’t mentioned it as speculation).
I love babypips down there, always there’s a good quote below and different each time when you surf. I remember I saw once sounds like, The Chinese Says: When you couldn’t do it, please don’t interrupt those who are doing it. Something like that, I can’t really remember.
Because you couldn’t exploit the truth behind, you will start to protect yourself being the right one and tell everyone it couldn’t be exploit.
Yes, the result was random in short term, but it wasn’t in long term if you know which way to exploit. Price Action represents Buyer or Seller interest, this is the most related and simplest explanation why you can exploit the market by using Price Action.
Just like what you post earlier, you just let me feel that you are absolutely doesn’t understand at all about what Price Action means. Nobody will use Price Action during Fundamental High Impact News such as NFP, ECB, Bank Rates, Interest Rates etc.
Trading on high impact news, that’s describe as speculation. You can have once or twice in profit when trading on those event, but not in long term.
The highest trading level wasn’t only getting profit during noise market, you must know how to survive as well when it wasn’t a right time to trade.
I don’t mind if you join me a week on my trading session in Skype, I will show you how price action really works. (Not teaching you how price action works because you are too far from it). I can proof to you by exploiting Buyer and Seller interest, we can act before event occurs, purely by exploiting Price Action and Technical Analyst without Fundamental News pushing on price movement.
By the way, even myself understand the concept of forex is actually random just like tossing a coin game with maybe 50-50, or something near at 52-48. But try google why we still can benefit in this random game? Maybe you are not good in maths. Try google “Positive Expectancy”, and you will understand why you can profit in forex even though on a random 50-50 market. Therefore, I have mentioned earlier in short term, absolutely agree it is random. But in Long Term, it is not random. Hence, you need a lot of patience to trade in forex and as your previous post basically telling me you are a gambler. A 100 game of tossing coin, doesn’t mean you have to play a 100 hand of game. Hopefully you can understand what I am trying to say.
I find it amusing that you’re speaking so matter-of-factly when it’s clear that you don’t even understand elementary statistics.
There is no way to profit if the market was 50-50. But it’s not even that, the odds are stacked against you due to the spread. No amount of betting gimmicks, strategy, or anything will turn your negative expectation into a positive one. How about you do some Googling about “expectancy.”
Stop embarassing yourself and maybe come back once you’ve read up on some basic maths.
Do you trade Fx or are you crusading? It might be escaping the majority of retail speculators but in fact - notice I am speaking matter of fact - there are high odds approaches to speculating in all asset classes. Moreover this remains even further true in the Forex market.
Expectancy has nothing to do with this business. It is all about the money and not math. This you can be sure of.
You still don’t understand the nature of this business. Toss a coin for 100 times, you will get a row of Heads or Tails easily although it is a 50/50 of outcome either Head or Tail. If you think you can have the expectancy in 1 result, I am so sorry that you don’t even understand what the “EXPECTANCY” means, so don’t try to explained to someone who doing well in it when you doesn’t have the understanding about it.
Let me ask you another simple question. We now walk away from Forex example.
For instance, you plan to start on a business. Do you think it is 60/40 or 70/30 type business? Don’t you think it is 50/50 as well because you don’t know what the future might happen and the outcome are random as well? Still, you need to put the capital on before your business can start-up, right? There are no free lunch and you start a business with 0 capital.
Does other business nature provide edge just as I mentioned in Forex? Of course it does. You need to start with your Research and Development, Supply and Demand, Market Exponential, Market Exposure etc. That’s all the edge you will have if you do those researches thoroughly.
Still, it doesn’t means you are in 100% of success in your new business because human can’t predict future, but at least those researches provide the whole edge for you, maybe from 50/50 to 60/40. All of this is proven in other business, so you can’t avoid admitting those reality.
By the way, I don’t think I am embarrassing myself, and you are the one. Because you have too many negative thought and too lazy to put in effort in a business.
I am still dumbfounded and astounded that you think an edge can be created in a coin flip scenario. So you are saying because a row of heads exists, i.e. a series that goes something like THHHHHHHHTT that you can profit from it? Please explain further.
I’m glad you brought the business example up. No, the odds are not anywhere close to 50/50. Probably close to 10/90 or even less. You are competing against people with established distribution networks, economies of scale, and almost always more knowledge and experience. Do you even know people who have tried to start their own businesses? Anyway, forget that. Just focus on the coin flip scenario, I am more interested in your response on that.
I don’t want to waste my time anymore with you. Telling you more just teaching you something and it doesn’t benefit me at all. A coin flipped is an example of expectancy, trading is include with a lot of party. That’s why we can exploit by using Buyer and Seller interest. Sorry to say that, you have no sense at all in business especially financial business. Let me give you some stock example, since you are so slow to understand something. I will provide 2 good example of stock instead of forex, because forex need fast reaction which you don’t have it. This example can explain why by exploiting Buyer Interest a.k.a (Price Action or Supply and Demand) can be profitable in trading. Let me know by next 3 or 5 days whether it works to you.
Attached 2 stocks are GPRO and ZTS, both of them are in UP TREND. But in lower time frame, GPRO has less Buyer Interest at the moment. Therefore, it won’t goes up in short time of period. But ZTS is full of Buyer Interest at the moment, and more likely it will rose to higher in a short time. It is in LIVE TRADE, it means we doesn’t have the outcome yet.
What does that have to do with anything? I can slap any number of pretty colors and lines on that chart and claim the price will go up/down because of X.
Did you change the topic because you realized your understanding of expectancy was wrong?
Not really. I didn’t change the topic. Come on, slap something up and tell me its gonna go up or down. I can put this up because I am confidence with the strategy I am using for trading, not by putting some random up here. Can you put on something here and tell me it has higher probability to go up or down?
P/S: Tell me that you can flip a Head and a Tail continuously for 100 times. If you can’t, it means there are a streak that you can benefit from it by using Risk and Money Management.
“Expectancy theory emphasizes the needs for organizations to relate rewards directly to performance and to ensure that the rewards provided are those rewards deserved and wanted by the recipients.”
The Expectancy Theory of Motivation explains the behavioral process of why individuals choose one behavioral option over another. It also explains how they make decisions to achieve the end they value. Vroom introduces three variables within the expectancy theory which are valence (V), expectancy (E) and instrumentality (I). The three elements are important behind choosing one element over another because they are clearly defined: effort-performance expectancy (E>P expectancy), performance-outcome expectancy (P>O expectancy).
Three components of Expectancy theory: Expectancy, Instrumentality, and Valence
Expectancy: Effort → Performance (E→P)
Instrumentality: Performance → Outcome (P→O)
Valence: V®
Expectancy in Trading that you must have:
Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)
By the way, please tell me why those line are respected for so many times if you can? It is not drawn after event. It is drawn after only 2 touches. Then the price itself will slowly appreciate according to the line. Why this happen? Is it because I can control the coin flipping outcome to FLIP on HEAD if HEAD represents BULL? For instance on GPRO uptrend, I drew it after 2 touches, and it appreciates with 6 touches, it means come with another 4. Explain to me why this will happen in long term randomness?
