Hi Chris
Yeah all the JPY pairs are very highly correlated ATM across all time frames. 30 and 200 week periods used for the tables. On the longer time frame the correlations break down and form into 2 groupings. AUD//NZD and EUR…GBP…USD/JPY. The exceptions CAD…CHF/JPY doing their own things on the longer time frame.
Just curious why it seems you have a bias they may start to unwind to the downside especially the AUD…NZD/JPY pairs having recently broken a major S&R level?
Kind regards
Spuzzana
Hello RMc,
It was a nice breakout pullback setup that was pretty easy to read with the right tools. But glad you spotted it, traded it and are making profits on it. Congrats!
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Alanamc,
My pleasure - I take great pride in my work, so hopefully it reflects in it and you find it useful. But am glad to be a part of your process.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Again Alanamc,
Yes, this thread is continually improving and will continue to as time goes on. I’ll definitely be putting in more content and daily contributions, but am glad you are finding it useful to learn price action trading in a different way.
With contributions like yours and others, it will definitely continue to grow, and hopefully be a great resource for developing traders and all who want to study/learn & trade price action.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Spuzzana,
Good question. What i’m really seeing has nothing to do per se with the correlation effect between the pairs, but moreso the price action many of them are exhibiting individually and collectively, particularly the EURJPY and GBPJPY which have been trailblazing in the recent bull run.
The main things I am seeing, were partially stated in my weekly analysis, where I talk about how the quantitative price action data on the EURJPY was quite extreme, quote below:
From a quantitative price action perspective, we are in extreme territory as we have never had more than 38 consecutive candle closes above the 20ema without having a touch on the 20ema and dynamic support (just hit 39 on Friday).
[I][B]From a quantitative price action perspective, we are in extreme territory as we have never had more than 38 consecutive candle closes above the 20ema without having a touch on the 20ema and dynamic support (just hit 39 on Friday).[/B][/I]
This is just one price action metric I use to analyze trends and determine when they will end. When we get to historical extremes like this, if often leads to a pullback or turning point in the trend, some of which is already unfolding.
Combine that with what I mentioned, about the possible exhaustion price action in the trend, parabolic price action in the trend, and also intraday price action reversal setups, all of which has not manifested before in this trend thus far, so these collective signs are painting a weakening picture to me at a minimum.
That’s just some of it, but hope this gives you some idea, as I’m really just reading the price action in real time.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
hi chris,
new to price action. what do you say on 12h AUDUSD pin bar at 1.0525(S/R) level. time to go long atleast till 1.600? comments.thanx and great work!
and anybody could advise on how to post a chart.
Hello Yak2444,
In regards to posting a chart, you’ll want to take a screenshot of the chart first. You can do this with microsoft paint, jing, and then saving it as a jpg on your computer.
From here, you’ll notice in the buttons above where you type in a message, one of them says, ‘insert image’ and looks like a small photo. Simply select it from your computer, upload it, and it will put it into the chart.
As to the AUDUSD 12hr pin bar, go ahead and post a chart, and then i’ll take a look.
Will wait for your response.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
As mentioned in my weekly commentary, the EURJPY has been showing a lot of price action signs of breaking down and reversing the long uptrend.
Earlier today, it formed an engulfing bar, but to mark the intraday lows, it formed an inside bar at the bottom of the range, which is also doubling as an inverted pin bar.
Keep in mind, inverted pin bars are really just failed attempts at a rally.
The pair is attempting to break below the current 117.54 lows and should it break cleanly, i’m expecting a sell-off towards 116.00, so i’m expecting a potentially good move on the cards.
Chart below;
Good hunting!
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
I missed the breakout, and it was a strong breakout too 
I guess I’ll just have to wait for the corrective move to try and get in, hate these missed opportunities.
Yeah, it happens, I barely caught in time. You may still get a corrective pullback.
As to missing opportunities, i’ve missed thousands of them over the last 13 years.
From my experience, better to focus on what’s in front of you, and not what you miss - as you cannot do anything about them. There will always be another around the corner, and one trade should never define you, your week, or your trading. so just let it go, and focus on whats available in the now.
Hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Thanks Chris, I guess everyone misses a few every now and then 
I think I may have my opportunity to enter soon seeing as there is a possible corrective move emerging. It’s still early in the day for me here, so plenty of time to catch something :).
Hi Chris
Thank you for the reply.
Never heard of parabolic price action until you mentioned it yesterday. Interesting line of research thanks.
Realize now that I’ve been looking at these pairs the wrong way round for entry points
Spuzzana
Hello Yak,
Just like my students in the course, before I give an opinion, I always ask for the following;
-what are you seeing in the chart?
-what key levels are important to you?
-is the overall impulsive price action with the buyers or sellers?
-what areas or things are you worried about?
-what other details support your trade?
The reason i ask this is, if you just show me a chart, and then ask my opinion, I have no idea what you see, how you see the charts, and what you are thinking. This doesn’t allow me to gauge your level of understanding in the price action.
But if you share with me what you see, particularly regarding the above, then I can see the chart through your eyes, and where your level of understanding and read on the chart is in comparison to what I see.
This gives me a really good gauge to work with, and then give ideas, thoughts and feedback.
If someone just shows a chart, says pin bar here, and then says - what do you think? It really is more passive learning for them, because it doesn’t require them to dig into their knowledge, share what they see as the key points on the chart, and then allow me to work with that.
However, if one shares all this info, then they are digging into what they know and see - and this gives me a map of what they can and cannot read in a chart - which is obviously much more for me to work with.
So ideally if you can, give me some good info as to what you see in the chart above, and then i’d be happy to comment.
Thanks in advance and i’ll look forward to hearing from you.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Spuzzana,
Yes, not many people talk about, or even recognize parabolic price action, or what it signifies from an order flow perspective.
But the good thing is you are starting to look at charts in a new way, which is a really good sign.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Watching a few things today, one that has caught my eye along with many today, is Silver. $31.51 is a key upside level for the precious metal, as its a swing high resistance level for almost a month now, and formed a pin bar rejection there prior.
It recently formed a tiny pin bar there, but after pulling back, found the 20ema and dynamic support, where it found buyers who are now testing this level again.
Intraday charts spotted this reversal off the dynamic support, and has played out well. I’ll be watching this level for either a breakout retest, or possible failure for a move back down to $31.00 and possibly $30.50 near term.
Until then - good hunting everyone.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
chris,
the blue line has acted as support in december,before price broke down. then it was resistance from end of december to early january. this was broken by a large bull candle and the price(1.0525) was tested again and the line is acting as support.hence in my opinion, this is a key price area.
if we observe the candles bulls are taking a single candle to nuetralise the bear candles. hence bias is bullish.
the pinbar is at the key area and a price action set up.(ie…price broke up and then pulled back to the support forming a swing low). these are my views.from here on price should be making HH first resistence encountering at 1.600.
Hello Yak,
Thanks for sharing as it gives me a good idea of what you are seeing.
[B]Here is my read on it;[/B]
If you look at the last 5 bars, or 60hrs, price is really inside of a range from the first bull rejection off this level since breaking above it with the large bar you noted. It has definitely found intraday buyers at that level around 1.0521, but being inside of a range just before a major resistance level just above is not my ideal buying location.
If I were to take this play, id rather wait for a pullback towards the 1.0521 and get as tight as I can to that, targeting the upper end of the 60hr range, and if it fails there, taking profit.
My philosophy is - [B]if it’s in a range, then you have to treat it like a range[/B], and if the range is not at the top of a major swing, then its going to have a hard time finding new buyers coming in if it breaks this 60hr range, because its got more sellers just above that.
Its almost like a flag pattern ([B]take a look at the 4hr chart and you’ll see this[/B]). But its not at the top of a range, which is not my favorite flag pattern to get long on. So i’d rather take a small long (if any) off the range low. But I’ll be honest, this is not my most inspiring setup, so I’d only look at this as an intraday play - and only hold if I see real signs of buying interest, as this does not look like accumulation to me - especially since we are towards a major swing high.
Hope that gives you some idea of how I see it.
([I]FYI - this type of analysis is normally reserved for my course members, but thought I’d give you an idea of what I see and how I approach price action[/I]).
But good luck on this one.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hey Traders,
I’m looking at several of the major indices, particularly the S&P 500 which is not really inspiring bulls by the price action just under the multi-year highs at 1475. I’m anticipating a possible bull trap breakout, so if you see an upside breakout and failure, this could be the start of some solid selling.
Bulls can though look for corrective pullbacks towards 1450, or for a solid breakout pullback above the key level.
Also note the inverted pin bar from monday, suggesting it has been underpinned as of late.
Good hunting for today!
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
