Here is a fairly good entry for a trading system. Maybe someone could develop it further.
EURUSD…5 min chart…daytrade
If avg price moves by .0007 or more in either direction, there is aprox 80% chance it will move another .0007 or more in same direction.
Its all about odds…
Can you explain it more? Which indicator you are going to use?
Or show a live example. 
There is no “off the shelf” indicator for this. I developed and backtested on Amibroker. I set up the candlestick to turn a different color when the average price was up or down by .0007. On a 5 min chart ,you can manually figure this out. Some charting software will give you Average or Median price. Just see if it is up or down by 7 pips. Chances of it going the same way are aprox 80%. Of course , all idicators are worthless during fundamental events ,so timing is everything.
This is a pretty good entry…much better than my flip a coin entry (which is 50% accurate). Also works in other time frames. By the way…7 is the number according to my backtesting…tested all numbers from 1 to 20
Thanks for your efforts, and explaination.
Are you saying that if price moves up .0007 PERCENT that there is an 80% chance that it continues moving up another .0007 PERCENT?
Thanks
What he means is 7 pips.
I don’t understand what you mean by “average price”? Are you saying that if the NET price move in a 5 min. candle is at least 7 pips then there is an 80% chance that the next candle will move in the same direction?
Candles?
Forget candles, it’s about price action, candles are not a good representation for this system.
You need to watch by your self
Interesting idea.
How many test you have run?
What result are you getting from that system & how long you have been using this?
Thank you for sharing anyway.
I doubt this works, it’s playing volatility and you’d need a computer to trade it for you anyway, also what would be the stop loss - 7 pips?
If your sample size is anthing less than 2,00 trades, then it’s just chance.
I’ve been playing a game much like this, and honing it for a while now.
It’s amazing what repetitive things you can find if you stare at the charts long enough.
There are crafty ways to get your stop placement numbers, and times a strat like this should have you sidelined even though the criteria for entry is there.
Expect to spend a lot of screen time.
The biggest problem is the bias within everyone to only see positive/successful trades on a chart.
I agree.
Which is why aside from the fact that I can’t program, everything I do is forward tested only. All trades manual.
Nothing like not knowing what is coming after the current candle to prove, or disprove a theory…
True, you can use a simulator to backtest data but speed it up. Still, any method worth it’s salt should have no issues being demo tested for a while (a statistically significant while) before being live traded.
I would like to see how the OP came to the 80% conclusion, but do believe that is close to correct.
And even if it was only 70% of the time, if the trade is managed properly, it is a statistically strong enough advantage to be capitalized on.
It would definitely be a momentum related type trade. The only question is what time frame is most effective, and where you start the .0007 countdown;)
Price action study has absolutely helped me in that regard, and so has paying attention to time frames.