[B]Economic News
USD[/B]
The main story yesterday was the much anticipated announcement of US Federal Interest Rate cuts. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut rates by one quarter point to 4.5% to help change the trends in the struggling US economy. Traders saw the EUR, GBP and CAD make significant gains on the greenback, with the volatile news period not helping to change the greenback’s fate by all that much. It is important to note that losses over a seven day period versus the EUR were halted, however the general trend looks to continue to be prevalent. EUR/USD hovered for most of the day around 1.45, while the cable hit 26 year highs. The Canadian dollar reached its highest point in almost 50 years against the greenback as there was no stopping the maple leaf. Not all the news was bad yesterday, as US growth numbers were positive, putting the onus on other Central Banks to evaluate possible rate hikes. The greenback has continued to endure agonizing results with essential commodities like Crude Oil and Gold, leaving traders with tough decisions on how long to hold onto positions with the USD.
Today’s economic calendar is once again crowded with essential news from the US. Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Unemployment Claims, ISM Manufacturing Index and Prices should continue to push the greenback down. Some investors are still concerned that the only positive information released from the US is not backed by real data quite yet. This sentiment has shown itself in trading as the rate cuts yesterday only slightly changed the continued trend in the market in regards to the greenback. It will be intriguing to see if today’s news events can provide enough real data to shift trends to relieve some of the heighted stress on the greenback.
[B]EUR [/B]
The EUR hit all-time highs once again versus the plummeting greenback, after yesterday’s Fed rate cut. Floating at high levels the whole day, the European currency staved off any news time volatility to stay strong. Speculation is that the ECB will need to raise interest rates to combat the soaring inflation from within its members’ economies. Doing so could come sooner than later, as US the economic data has not shown much promise as of late.
Today, the EUR stays off the economic calendar, with relevant news coming from only the UK and US. It will be the focal point of many investors over the next couple of days to monitor the relationship between speculative growth in the European economy and the key changes in US economic policy. Yesterday, in the statement released by the Feds, there was mention that "the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth.’’ Comments like these will only further the concern from the ECB over how to handle their currency in relation to the greenback. It should be interesting to see if investors continue to back the rise of the EUR/USD or if they retreat over concerns of a change in trends.
[B]JPY [/B]
Amidst the whirlwind of records set against the greenback yesterday, the JPY managed to stay proportionately neutral. Following Japan’s announcement that interest rates will stay at 0.5%, Governor Fukui reiterated the Bank of Japans statement noting slowed economic growth in the country. After abandoning initial ideas that consumer prices in Japan would rise, there was not much surprise that rates stayed the same. As Japan is dependent on the growth of the global economy, the latest news from the US will inevitably lead the Japanese to make some changes to avoid damaging the JPY. With the fate of the JPY in the hands of outside factors, look for the JPY to continue to produce volatile results over the coming days.
[B]
Technical News
EUR/USD [/B]
After a touch at the unbelievable level of the 1.4500 yesterday, the pair eases a bit and now consolidates around 1.4460. The EUR/USD seems to be ignoring technical key points and is simply breaking record highs one after the other. Although charts are showing bearish crosses on the 4 Hour chart and the daily chart, it appears that the momentum is stronger than ever, and that another peak at the 1.4500 should probably return shortly.
[B]GBP/USD [/B]
The cable is going through a massive uptrend, as the momentum refuses to calm down. Hourly charts are packed with positive sentiments and are slightly contradicted by a moderately bearish daily chart. Going long in the short run appears to be preferable today.
[B]USD/JPY [/B]
The pair still floats within the wide range of 113.00/177.00 with no distinct direction. It appears that the current move is up, and the local sentiment is quite bullish. The 4 Hour chart is indicating that the next target price could be around 116.40.
[B]USD[/B][B]/CHF [/B]
The pair is floating at a very strong support level that revolves around 1.1580 and is showing some difficulties breaching through it violently. The sentiment on the daily chart is floating at neutral levels whereas the hourly charts are very bearish. Staying out of this pair until the smoke clears might be a smart move.
[B]The Wild Card
Crude Oil [/B]
Oil has breached through the all time high of 96.00 and even touched the 96.20 at some point yesterday. The momentum is stronger than ever, and there is a strong belief that oil is running to the 100$ a barrel soon. This is a great opportunity for forex traders to get in at great entry point and ride that unbelievable trend.