Nice trading Nero, I missed that trade because I was sleeping lol but if I was awake, I probably didn’t take it… just because of choppy price action. If we have a solid close today, this would be good be a good indication of uptrend continuation, hmm… certainly we see selling today on 1h chart… Tomorrow, the Minimum Bid Rate Decision imh could decide the tie, they could use this to pushing through supply or take it lower just to shoot up at the end of the day like in 2007… hmm my crystal ball LOL Let’s see
And how likely do you think it is that China will hold that level? Seems to me like a good opportunity to hunt those pips…Are you positioned to ride the train?
1.45 is a good target in my opinion. If you decide to jump on the train late, be careful, for it is possible that if profits are taken late Thursday/Friday, bandwagoners may end up with positions in the red.
Good luck PipBandit!
If you still have that 1/4 position open, it may pay you to sit on it until tomorrow at least.
Today might be a bit harder to read, so here’s some help. We finally saw weakness yesterday. I’m only looking to short now. I don’t expect a new high this week. The stopping volume is very clear on the 1hr.
I guess the weakness yesterday and today was existing longs lightening their exposure before the rate announcement. Makes sense to take a few chips off the table just in case. Trichet and others have been signalling multiple hikes throughout the year and if he talks that up today like the good hawk he likes to present himself as to be we’ll be off to the races again possibly. I’ve entered a small long position at 1.4280. If it goes a “buy the rumour, sell the news” thing and takes a dive so be it - I’ll take my medicine!
Nipped out for +27 pips after the rate hike. Had to go to a meeting at 1:30pm and caution got the better of me so went flat before Trichet started talking which saved me a B/E trade I guess. Checking volume now for potential long entries - selling pressure appears to have dropped away some. The 1 hour is showing a long doji with decent volume though not as much as the hour before which maybe is to be expected given the volatility around that time. Good enough for me to enter a small pre-emptive long at 1.4260… which has taken off in the time I’m writing this. Damn… wish I’d opened a slightly bigger position now.
Does your opinion change seeing that today’s stopping volume was higher?
PS – I took the long this morning, 2/3 targets hit, flattened the third after the earthquakes this morning for net +30 pips. My thoughts are with Japan…
Depends on how you want to structure your trade…a break of ~1.4410 may be good for a few pips, but as to the long term viability of such a position…I’m not too sure…you may have to wait for a good pull-back if you’re looking to safely establish a longer term position if you weren’t able to get into the move from the get-go.
EDIT: You still having doubts about your previous 1.44 predictions? :13:
Yeah I wasn’t sure about it either so had closed mine - d’oh. Wasn’t expecting that jump in the Asian session. I guess with oil going up $1 a day or more we’re not going to see the decent dip in E/U which it’s fundamentals really deserve. Reckon I’m done for the week. +3.12% overall this week so pretty content. Just need to work on that patience some more.
Thinking now that I’m going to have to change my target. Looking at 1.4575 for my exit now. It’s likely there is lots of profit-taking once those levels are reached.
EDIT: Scratch that thought, screw a rigid Take Profit target, I’ll exit when the next bout of bad news hits the market…
What can I say when people talk about news, when a move happens that I knew was coming A LONG TIME AGO BASED ON THE CHARTS. News didn’t tell me this, it didn’t get me in long, and it won’t tell me when to get out either.
Accumulation has gone on since November. MASSIVE accumulation against the USD like I have NEVER seen before. The pro’s were getting out of usd and into anything else…especially the Euro, since november…so there’s a news flash.
Here’s another one…the usd will continue to lose value. I got this info from the most reliable source…the chart. People can say what they want, numbers can suggest this and that, but the charts are hard proof of what’s IS going on.
VSA wipes the floor with fundamental analysis…there I said it.
I’m very pleased that you were able to see the move, and I’m also hoping that you caught it and are enjoying those well-earned pips.
News didn’t tell me this, it didn’t get me in long, and it won’t tell me when to get out either.
Obviously VSA is your system, not news, and so of course this is to be expected.
Accumulation has gone on since November. MASSIVE accumulation against the USD like I have NEVER seen before. The pro’s were getting out of usd and into anything else…especially the Euro, since november…so there’s a [B]news flash[/B] for ya.
News flash for me? I will assure you most certainly not, for ironically it was because I make the effort to keep abreast with what’s going; with [B]the news[/B] that I was in and able to participate in what you purport to be ‘pro accumulation’ from since [U]September[/U] and Take Profits just when you started to see this ‘pro accumulation’.
I hate to measure genital size, but the bitterness in your posts begs me to do so…
Here’s another one…the usd will continue to lose value. I got this info from the most reliable source…the chart. People can say what they want, numbers can suggest this and that, but the charts are hard proof of what’s IS going on.
Hardly a news flash…Quantitative Easing has been around for quite some time guy…every ‘news’ trader would have picked up on this eons ago. It’s even easier to say with majors reaching such lofty levels against the USD. For how long will it continue to lose value? What happens if the Fed decides that they are done with QE and are going to tighten up their interest rates this coming June?
The [B][U]Babypips School[/U][/B] will even tell you that this is absolutely bullish for the USD. [B][U]If[/U][/B] the above scenario did play out (not saying it will), are you actually trying to tell me that you would [B][U]still[/U][/B] consider going long, because the chart - the hard proof - has shown that USD was losing value in the past, and so will continue to lose value? Would it not make sense to consider closing out some longs? Isn’t that reasonable grounds for a Take Profit target? Even grounds to initiate new short positions to ride a possible move down?
Sure the charts [U]are[/U] hard proof of what’s going on [U]now[/U], but they are rather after the fact, as the above example shows. They are also very limited in the information they can provide.
News Flash for [B][U]you[/U][/B] now. The chart is [B]not[/B] the cause of the USD losing value. The mere notion is something I thought an experienced trader such as yourself would not be trapped in! :34: You are not just trading up and down candles on a screen. You are trading a [B]currency pair[/B]. When a nation needs to prevent record inflation from eating into the disposable incomes of their populace, do you really think that they need price to reach the 50% Fibonacci Retracement (50 isn’t even a Fibonacci Number, but I digress…) level of the latest up-swing before taking action? Don’t you think their action will translate into what shows up on your chart in the coming days?
VSA wipes the floor with fundamental analysis…there I said it. That is why I don’t care and will never care.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion - more power to you! But that attitude will leave you stuck in a dangerous mental place…a trader should be a student of the market; constantly learning and updating his views. But alluding to the fact that you are ignorant about pertinent material and [B][U]accepting[/U][/B] it - something that will hinder your own progress - is beyond me! Why ignore what can only serve to augment your trading? The best part is…I’m not even a Fundamental Trader, so you can continue to bash Fundamental Analysis all day long if you like!
VSA is [B][U]not[/U][/B] the only way to trade the markets. You are badly mistaken if you think it is. I thought this was supposed to be a thread where we posted our trade convictions, charts and results, using VSA/Fibb/SR not whined about missed prospective trades. I will admit that I do use a wee bit of SR when I feel inclined.
Ah! I see now. I guess [U][B]I now understand[/B][/U] why you defend VSA with such conviction!
It would indeed be hard to convince potential clients that you can give them $195.00 of material and a $75.00 subscription, unless your method is flawless.
No worries - carry on.
But it always did irk me that successful traders don’t have time to be ‘gurus’ since they were always busy with making money. :31:
This is classic straw man fallacy. Your arguments would be much stronger without the personal attacks.
Your last few posts (before Peter’s) were not related to this topic, why post them to this thread at all? This is not a general thread for people to post their personal predictions of the market…While it is ok to disagree with a topic, and you are encouraged to give your reasons why and debate the merits of trading this way (an action which would be very beneficial to the discussion), your latest posts are just completely unrelated. That being said, I did not interpret his last post to be an attack against you, it seemed more like a general statement. Why did you respond this way?
Posting your trades do not strengthen your argument against the methodologies of trading currently being discussed in this thread. Peter never claimed his trading style was perfect, nor did he say it was the only way to trade, so why the personal attacks?
If I understand it correctly, Peter’s main point in this thread, is to trade with the “Smart Money”. He points out some very specific ways to see what the “Smart Money” is doing, and trade with them. Literally the only statement you’ve made against this in the last two posts, is:
When a nation needs to prevent record inflation from eating into the disposable incomes of their populace, do you really think that they need price to reach the 50% Fibonacci Retracement (50 isn’t even a Fibonacci Number, but I digress…) level of the latest up-swing before taking action?
While I’m no expert, “Smart Money” likely consists of more than the national government, so this doesn’t really refute Peter’s style of trading as discussed in this thread. Secondly, the theory is not to simply look at the chart, but to look at the chart in relation to volume. He uses these tools not to simply trade “up and down candles on a screen”, but to give him a view into what the “Smart Money” is doing.
I would love to hear your arguments regarding Forex volume not being a good tool to analyze what “Smart Money” is doing, and we would all benefit from further analysis about the market not caring about the 50-61.8 fib support and resistance levels…
The second post was not intended to be a follow-up to the first, hence why I put it in a separate post - sorry for the confusion.
You see [B]DodgeV83[/B], the thread is about VSA/[B]SR[/B]/Fibb, and if I incorporate elements of SR into my trading, I thought that I may be allowed the same priveleges to post my charts and anticipations, in much the same light as [B]NeroKoso,[/B] [B]PipBandit,[/B] [B]luiz,[/B] and [B]SagiCZ[/B] just to name a few. When I look at my posts and theirs, the only difference I see is that they have Volume Bars on their charts while I don’t, and so I fail to see how my latest posts have been ‘unrelated.’ Since this isn’t a thread for predictions, then what has been transpiring for the past few pages? Aren’t trade set-ups in essence predictions?
The reason why I took issue with his post, was that it [B]screamed[/B] sore loser, something I most certainly did not expect from a seasoned trader. I mean, if we are in [B]April[/B], then why should ‘pro accumulation’ in [B]November[/B] be brought up - after the fact - and to add insult to injury, you trade in the [B]opposite[/B] direction to this supposed ‘pro accumulation’, and then claim to have seen the long move coming ages ago? Can anyone else see the inconsistency?
My trade was clearly the only one which was structured in anticipation of the news, which is why I interpreted the post to be directed at me. For the same reason, his taking issue with Fundamental Analysis, and need to dignify charts and volume, provided me with further impetus to believe his post was directed towards me, as I fit the criteria perfectly, and I am not aware of anybody else using Fundamental Analysis and excluding Volume in their recent trades. Perhaps it was the subtle way that he worded his post which compelled me to respond. Reading it now and comparing it to the quote in my post, I see that he edited his message to make it more diplomatic, while I was in the process of replying.
When I learned income was involved, it seemed to be a very plausible reason as to why one would seek to act in a manner consistent with that above, and so I don’t consider it as a personal attack at all. Is it not logical to think that since income is reliant on the proficiency of his method, that it is in his interest to defend it, even when potentially incorrect material has been highlighted?
Come on, [B]DodgeV83[/B] - you know that trading is a zero-sum game. It is a highly competitive environment, and this is why truly profitable systems are hard to come by. I am yet to see George Soros, Warren Buffet, Paul Tudor Jones or Bill Lipshultz sharing their systems, and there is a perfectly logical explanation - sharing an edge will diminish it. Just look at the Turtles and their Trend Following system…viewed from this perspective, it just makes you very skeptical about the motives of some individuals.
Posting your trades do not strengthen your argument against the methodologies of trading currently being discussed in this thread. Peter never claimed his trading style was perfect, nor did he say it was the only way to trade, so why the personal attacks?
No, no [B]DodgeV83,[/B] before I make a claim, I always provide grounds to substantiate it. It is argumentative common-sense. It was done to show that in the same way he sees ‘pro accumulation’ in hindsight, then I most certainly do too, with the added fact that I back-up my claims. I fail to see how you cannot see the value in substantiation.
To read this:
All you need is a naked chart and Volume. Not better Volume, no indicators. They will keep you blind.
The market moves through cycles. It’s a system rigged to take your money. That’s how it works. That’s why it’s there.
You won’t get much out if it if you just read a few pages. My method becomes more refined as my understanding of the market expands. It has become a record of my journey to discover what the heck is REALLY going on. AND I HAVE.
and then watch him [U]categorically dismiss Fundamental Analysis as irrelevant[/U] is doing a disservice to traders who are emulating him. I took issue with this and responded.
If I understand it correctly, Peter’s main point in this thread, is to trade with the “Smart Money”. He points out some very specific ways to see what the “Smart Money” is doing, and trade with them. Literally the only statement you’ve made against this in the last two posts, is:
While I’m no expert, “Smart Money” likely consists of more than the national government, so this doesn’t really refute Peter’s style of trading as discussed in this thread. Secondly, the theory is not to simply look at the chart, but to look at the chart in relation to volume. He uses these tools not to simply trade “up and down candles on a screen”, but to give him a view into what the “Smart Money” is doing.
I would love to hear your arguments regarding Forex volume not being a good tool to analyze what “Smart Money” is doing, and we would all benefit from further analysis about the market not caring about the 50-61.8 fib support and resistance levels…
But please keep it on topic.
Sure ‘smart money’ consists of more than the national government, but sit down and really think about this. How does [B]MT4 Tick Volume[/B] coupled with candlesticks equate to a map for deciphering the intentions of said ‘smart money’? When did ‘smart money’ decide to leave their prime brokerages and execute trades with market makers, to allow us to see their movements?
I am not saying that the concept is totally invalid, and of course, the actions of larger participants will invariably show up on the charts. But analyzing [B]tick volume from a retail market maker’s platform[/B] is not going to give you the information you seek. You see price approaching resistance, and a large volume bar appears. How much of this volume is buying, and how much of this volume is selling? In a centralized market place, one would have access to such information, but this is not the case with Forex. The concept of VSA may be sound, but [B]MT4 tick volume[/B] is not a good proxy, is essentially the point I’m trying to make. That being said if it works for you, then more power to you! Your bottom line is of no concern to me, and vice-versa. (not directed at you [B]DodgeV83[/B])
[B]Respectfully[/B]
xXTrizzleXx
EDIT: But seeing as most of this will fall on deaf ears, I will desist from causing further disruption in the thread. Really and truly, I only came back to try to connect with PipBandit.
Ah, I understand your position, and even agree with some of it.
I’ll wait for some more responses before giving my opinion, but I like where this conversation is going.
P.S. One thing I don’t like about most threads, (especially threads like this, where analysis can be subjective) is the analysis of past charts as proof of a given theory. The problem of course, is that hindsight is 20-20, and no one wants to post a failed trade. This is why I always tried to post charts live, as they happened, with my analysis on how to trade it. I wasn’t always right, but that’s kind-of the point.
I encourage everyone to post their chart as they take the trade, along with their analysis (some are doing this already). That would be the best indication, one way or the other, of the strength of this trading strategy.
what’s up guys
I always like this video: YouTube - buy the dip
I’ll give my ball here, if I see a push above 84.92 on UJ, I’ll be long despite all problem in US. First tp is 85.35, second tp: 85.90. SL: 84.55
