Very observant. I call it “predictive fib”. I don’t think it’s just a coincidence. In an average trend, when you run into stopping volume, suddenly those predictions already come into play. The retrace off that pin to .50-61.8 and continuation to the extention. It’s calculated by computers instantly I would think…as a high probability.
Hi Pete, here’s euros futures 60m tf, we definitely have some supply but I think it’s not sufficient enough. I think we’ll have retracement early next week but we will see whether they bought it in numbers again 
I used to use MAs for s/r, (not for cross over signals) including the 200. I do have a few on a side chart to refer to but, I rarely look at it.
Pivots and MM lines are hit or miss…probably more times than not they do affect price. I dont use them anymore besides the occasional glance. When there is confluence with my own determind s/r I tend to give it more weight.
Obviously your asking a guy who spends 99% of his analysis time looking at a naked chart with volume and hand drawn s/r. I guess you can say I have a philosophy that price/time/volume is the foundation of everything, and keeping a focus on that is job number 1.
Anything beyond that are bells and whisles, to me. Are there successful traders that depend on these lines? Probably…it’s just not my thing.
here it goes take #2:
Give me your thoughts please.
Eur/usd looks like SM has been accumulating for the past couple weeks. I am using oanda and understand the differences between brokers. lets not beat a dead horse. So looking at volume for the past up move the highest volume daily candles has been decreasing. I am wondering why Pete you think that friday’s move signals the top of the move? The high volume double pin bars?
my real question I guess is this. Since we are looking at being long biased for the past say 10 sessions, we need to see stopping volume. The volume seen on friday is lower than at the start of the move and declining. So how does this lead to it being stopping volume? shouldn’t it be higher to shift the long bias?
I am thinking retracement. looking at 50% or 62% at a fib from low to high of the move. Monday will tell I guess.
thanks to any replies. (pick me apart please:13:)
The one outstanding fact about Friday is that SM was in profit taking mode. This doesn’t mean that all long positions are closed, but it does affect the supply/demand balance, bringing more supply, which should cause a down move. Comparing the volume to the recent range, in combination with the wide up bar with bearish reaction, tells us this. I’m not tring to call a long term top, just that when the day ends I can make asessments about the next day.
On friday, SM clinked their champange glasses and lit up their cigars as thier computers played against a nice bout of herd buying, taking tp during an up move. The way september ended on such a bad note, they probably had plenty of herd sell pressure to keep price down while building up huge long positions. They will most likely use any up moves to take more profit and short (distribution phase) now that the herd is buying.
Then lower prices, the retrace, will most likely bring back SM demand. Again, it’s just a day by day assesment of the phases shown in the first post.
I think I rambled a bit lol, but to answer…the climactic/stopping volume to cause a trend retrace, doesn’t have to be as high as the volume that started the trend for the high probability of a pull back to be there. Another thought on that…if the accumulation happened in a short period of time, but climax/distribution takes place over a longer period of time you would see higher volume at the start of the move, yet potentially the same amount of activity.
Thanks pete!!!
Answered my question perfectly. the rambling is even better for learning.
to be honest I am more excited that I understood exactly what you are saying. (I think :34:)
hats off to you
I suppose it just comes down to personally seeing the weight of influence and trade based on that. I can see the problem that if you took in all these lines of influence and traded around them all, you might never place a trade, a mouse stuck in a cage :13:
One thing I have been reflecting over the past couple of days in terms of the MTM material and talking about smart money is that I can’t quite see how the model relates to FX in the sense that there is not a finite amount of ‘stock’ to be all accumulated then distributed etc. And also sometimes I get the impression that we are talking about the smart money or market makers being on the other side of the trade, ie distributing to retail traders, which essentially makes them the sort of broker side of the equation…gets confusing sometimes.
The point I came to late last night as I was drifting off to sleep was to relate more to what seems to be happening on the charts in terms of those large pins and high volume at what look like genuine tops and bottoms, and where we it looks like the smart money wants to price to go and looking for those indications on the charts. The tops and bottoms in 5 min charts seems to be one of the easier patterns to pick up at my current level of understanding
I noticed the patterns are even clearer after mini-trends where a FIB is drawn then what happens after, ie pins dipping below or above important fib lines to catch stops, that sort of thing.
This was a classic from last week
I think it’s time I start a new thread. There seems to be enough interest here and from talking in the chat. At this point, sending people on a mission to read through 3 years of my progression and over 300 pages is a bit much, although worth it as there is so much to learn and proof of it’s long term effectiveness.
I might go through and find the best posts of this thread, and link to those in the new thread. The point is to lay out the basic information in the beginning. Will post…
I do think patience is really needed with this learning process. I notice that if I just keep exposing myself to this stuff, and my on going interest spills out into reflection, it all starts to sink and a feel for what is going on start to arise. This is really great stuff!
I gotta say Petefader, you are a very generous guy as others are who continue to dedicate their time to such a valuable thread and resources in general on this site, I really do feel a lot of gratitude as I try to bring new freedom into my life by becoming proficient in trading.
Thanks again :35:
Your welcome. I’m always glad to see people “getting it”.
Wow, looking back, time really fly, I remember the first time I was introduced to the thread over a year now, fresh to the VSA stuff and under the guidance of Pete, we’ve all grasped very precious trading info… time really fly, invest our time now and we won’t regret it
Hi PipBandit,
Have been reading thru the thread and came across an old post of yours (page 183, eerie just noticed this page is 318 :o) about a ‘1-2-3 entry’. Could you clarify or anyone else for that matter?
thanks the videos r great
Thanks. What’s funny is that I made only 2 videos a good while back, but now I am making a new series. As I’m working on the first new video, I see your post.
Good day to you.
I would like to ask a question regarding short term VSA.
On the pic below we can see a bear phase marked with light blue area. Inside a bigger bear phase there is a smaller one what I marked with blue area inside the light blue.
My question is if we look at the blue area down move, can it be that increased volume is a stopping one? If yes, is it right to predict also a small up move after it when we compare this blue area down move’s stopping volume to the previous big down move(light blue area)'s volume? Do things tend to happen like this or it is just what I spot on this 5 min chart?
Best Regards
Andras
It’s late in the trading day so volume was dying out, but relative to the recent range the volume was higher than the previous 8 bars. You can call it stopping volume, but just consider the time of day. After 16 gmt volume tends to die out and I usually don’t trade.
Hey Pete,
I didn’t know you had some vids floating around…any others I should know about ?