short entry
Depends how agressive you are with your entry, but yesterday was tricky. Some like to take the long when overwhelming demand shows upā¦but, to wait for the LACK OF SUPPLY as well gives better probability. Sometimes it will get you in the trade late for less pips, but sometimes it will save you from getting in too soon and taking a loss.
Haggis, nice avatar but my sword cuts through steel. :18:
There was alot of buy volume yersterday as we saw. Strong trends like this (2 weeks) usually go out with a bang, meaning very high volume, wide spead up bars on 1hr., then it goes into the disrtibution phase.
Keep in mind your background, meaningā¦where is smart money ALREADY positioned? We know they are long with many many positions built up during this strong trend. Now, would you think that a couple high volume tops on the 5min, or 1 climactic bar on the 1hr would be enough for them to TP and accumulate shorts (distribution)? Probably not.
If they truly want out of the long, they will try with all they have to get out at the highest priceā¦and start shorting the highest prices. This usually takes a bit of time. Remember to trade with the phases shown in the first post. Right now it looks to be switching from markup to distribution, its when you have no more demand showing up and go into markdown phase that your best probability is there for the shorts, and continue to short rallies on weakness.
There was a sovereign on the offer at 1.3830 and below - they were active earlier this morning. This same sovereign was buying back at 1.3770-80 presumably to cash some profit and use to defend 1.3830 again. They were protecting that recent range high for whatever reason.
Retail sales came in better than expected and when traders started to push price up after the news they ran into the steady offers of the sovereign again which shoved price back down again. But with the risk on trade momentum staying present due to the good news results the sovereign couldnāt hold back the tide for long and it gave way after. I was long from 1.38 personally after the news and Iāve cashed out for +65 - gone flat now for the weekend.
In my opinion you have to be careful applying VSA immediately after news releases. Things can go a bit haywire in those 10-15 mins right after a big release like Retail Sales.
I donāt know about any of that stuffā¦has nothing to do with VSA chart reading.
Well said Pete. When I started doing this VSA I was so aggressive and gun ho. But I soon realised after watching you pros that it is best to wait for Signs of no supply before entering a trade with a pending order. Less Pips but better chance as you said. Havent been trading for a few weeks due to new work committments. Nice surprise to come back here and read your posts. They are always a hugh help. Good on ya!
Regards
Stephen
We had the highest volume of the day (so far) immediately after the news release and the 30 pip drop from the range high. If I understand Pandras right he entered short taking this high volume as an indication that bigger money was pushing the price down - especially as it was from an area of previously noted resistance.
This volume bar was misleading being right after the news release was all I was pointing out - have to take into account the history as you said above and volume over the past days has been with the buyers. The sovereign stuff was the why it played out the way it did on the charts today and why that high volume bar was one to ignore in this instance in my opinion.
Thank you very much for your comments
Now we see the proper way to end a markup phase. This last bearish close to follow on 1hr comfirms the start of distribution phase. Unless overwhelming demand comes in again up here, (highly unlikely) itās going to pull backā¦distribution phase into markdown.
Wide spread up bar with high volume and what I consider as some weakness in the background. What causes that. I agree with Petefader that markup phase seems close to over, if not already. Just having a think on what the chart tells us about the smart moneyā¦
Create that wide spread up bar to get a bit of excitement and hopefully take as much of the herds money as they try to join that uptrend, so the smart money can then to sell their long positions. Definately sounds to me that distribution is on its way 
Peterfader - Nicely pointed out with the volume to show that it is not yet climactic as such (remembering that climactic action isnāt a necessity)
The big buyers have scaling in and out since around 1.32-33 when they realised the world wasnāt about to collapse altogether. My guess would be that theyād be targeting 1.40 which is former support and the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the end of August.
Thereās nothing about VSA that suggests 1.4 to be considered at this point. Major weakness has hit. (unless you have something to show on that) Please attempt to follow the trading method here with your posts.
Haha well it better be up to the task for there is no sword in the world like the Samuraiās Katana ā¦ HAI!
Except maybe a Light saberā¦eeeek :eek:
Hello fellow traders!!
Long time newbie here. I have read the whole thread twice now and am just starting to demo. Joining here now hoping that i can one day become an expert like the big boys (dodge, luiz, nerokoso, any other i have not mentioned, and of course the guru himself petefader). I was completely new to this forex thing and for the last year have pretty used this thread as my bread
and butter. I need to learn more of course but this is my my go analysis method. I hope to keep posting here in my journey to truly understanding the market and smart money as much as I can.
hopefully you guys and gals can put up with me.
I have been going back over the week on EU and looking at top/bottom pins with high vol and also drawing fibs. What is weird is that when i draw a fib extension to the top of an up move for example, i can clearly see that some of the retracements on the way to the top happen exactly on the 61.8 or 50 or 23.8 etc. as if these retracement points could prophesize the top of the move.
Coincidence I assume but still interestingā¦
Looking over the week I seem to be seeing a pattern repeated fairly oftenā¦Hi VOL upthrusts thru 200MA then a good 4-5 bars of decreasing VOL immediately after and fade. Depending on whether this is testing a major previous RES level or not, price either drops like a stone or its a minor retrace.
Is this sort of thing fairly typical, I also see this happening particularly breaking tops of FIB, how much do you guys pay attention to S/R influence around 200MA?
This leads me to another few question about S/R.
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Are Pivot lines of regular influence as well? Dailys, Weeklys?
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Also Pete, I came across Murray Math lines for the first time in your Mad Scalper thread, are these influential in regards to price movement?