If you are keeping in mind the 1hr for your trading direction, you will avoid those “fake” setups most of the time.
Also, just looking at your chart, I can see that London open brought a large amount of buyers. But on the other hand there is only ONE candle showing weakness. (far left of the second blue square).
You can also see that once that weakness was shown, price still was able to float up above it on medium volume…that’s not continuing to show sell pressure at higher prices. Remember to watch the REACTION to high volume points to confirm them.
As far as you first square, that’s life…there weren’t any major signs of weakness, so we just wait.
This would not be enough volume to stop the up move am I right? I thought price would fall just a little bit and bounce off the 50-61.8 fib as I saw significant increased volume there but it just went through. Maybe it will bounce of the “bigger” 50-61.8 fib? What’s your thought on this Pete?
There you have it. Stopping volume and 2 NS chances to get the long. The only thing that wasn’t picture perfect was the 1hr stopping volume wasn’t very high, making a valid but more risky setup. That second NS went +45 pips into straight profit though.
When you have stopping vol/sideways range, then push through the resistance (remaning supply) then you have an effort to rise candle. I’ll talk about that more soon. This trade is still running nice, up +85 pips from that last ns…text book entry.
The E/D has reached the 50-61 fib area on the daily chart, what would you be looking for now? You mentioned that you draw trendlines and fibs on all the bigger TF’s to look at the big picture so how would that influence your view at this moment on the E/D.
Hope it is clear, I am not verbally good at this yet.
Thanks in advance.
You also mentioned that you don’t use volume on the + 1h TF, right?
I’d be aware of the 61.8 at this point. Chart shows there wasn’t reactive supply coming in on higher prices today, shown in the chart. When moving up within a fib zone, I would have to see constant selling pressure to go short. So at this point it’s really just the 61.8 level that matters, could have a “buy climax” there.
At this point in the day it doesn’t matter to me. The easy setup was given and I have until London open tomorrow to see where things are.
Nope, it’s too much information packed together. It’s nice to see a big spike on the 4 hr before u take a reversal maybe…during accum/dist, but that’s about it. The 1hr tells the story, 5min gives intraday setups. Thanks for the post.
Drawing them on trending moves lo/hi, where ever they may be, is valid to me. Today, as mentioned we are in the 50-61.8 zone of Sept. down move. Also, I had one drawn on the 1hr swing lo/hi from fridays low.
At times I may put a fib on the 5min to help me get in/out and manage my tp and sl.
At any point I can have 1-4 fibs up at once, but I only care about the 50-61.8 zone so I draw a box there and remove the fib. This way I have all my zones marked without the lines all over the place.
Simple parity bounce on USD/CAD. No brainer. The Volume was increasing on big downbars so bull strenght was showing. I entered on the reverse up-thrust (or “shakeout” if you like that better) with SL right below parity. I exited when my R:R was filled.
Thanks for your feedback Pete. I waited for the price to break through the resistence area and then No Supply before entering the trade but looking at your entry it was more aggressive. Just happy to be looking at the market in the right way. Good stuff mate!
