Okay. I did stay here and watched. That big move sure broke that head and shoulders support and some other support lines etc.
I closed rest of the shorts now. This is just so big move that I couldn’t resist to take 63 pip profit. This was the trade that I opened almost in the very top. This was the trade that I said: “I opened new short also. But this time very small stop. So basically, not risking anything. It’s either huge win or very small loss now. I always step in too early or too late.” This was right after other short almost got stopped. I put very small stop in this trade. 7 pips. And got 9 times that back.
So this day profit went over 2 %. Totally not pissed about friday no more.
Here’s another golden nugget. When a head and shoulders comes to test the neck line and there is no increase in volume, it’s very likely to break down rather than bounce. See it as a lack of stopping Volume on the down move from the top of the second shoulder.
I’m looking to sell today. The bar I marked is stopping Volume and the inside bar following confirms. This is not my text book 1hr setup as the high volume is on a down bar, but looking on the 15 min, it actually looks perfect and that down bar on the 1hr is just due to the quick downward reaction.
Distribution phase now, as shown in the first post. This is confirmed by the highest volume points now being on up bars on multiple TFs, without price breaking the high…following stopping Volume.
Hey Pete, will you wait until the London open to enter your short, or will you be placing a sell limit at or around the 1.3755 area (wait for the price to inch higher)?
Usually I wait untill London, but I may scale in before. I don’t do limit orders, everything has to confirm down to the 5 min for precise entries…anything can happen between now and London, including a fake break out…keep your eye on the ball.
Hi pete.
I mainly use 5’ chart to make a trade but as you said wait for stopping volume on an up bar and an inside close to follow on the 1hr. Could you please elaborate that? You said it quite a few times but until now I still don’t get it.
When you wait for signal on 1h. 1H could be 120 bars on 5’, is it too long or too late to wait for 1h chart…
I really confused
Thank you
Would be much appreciated if you could use chart to open the mind of a noob trader … Thx very much
The market is fractal. Signals appear on multiple TFs that are valid. The 1hr confirming helps define the general phase. The 5 min can get in you in based on that, or more risky scalps against it. Read, read, and re-read the thread.
I didnt wait for the 1hr close, I went after the 30min close.
Looking back, I see this move fell in line almost exactly with the stopping volume you identified further Pete; which says to me that it was intentional for two reasons.
a) to clear people like me from the market
b) when they begin the buying push, they force everyone else to over extend.
Of course then I panicked…
Another expensive lesson; but I might be getting the hang of it.
Just little too late. But at least this time I didn’t make my usual call, and take too early. haha It’s just that now stop is little bit higher so loot is little smaller. But well, profit is profit. At least for now, it seems like it’s going like it should.
Edit… I saw some profit taking, so I banked some of mine also. That double top wasn’t so good looking for some reason. I see volume there and all, but idk. But for some reason, I feel like being careful now.
Yes, just edited my post “Edit… I saw some profit taking, so I banked some of mine also. That double top wasn’t so good looking for some reason. I see volume there and all, but idk. But for some reason, I feel like being careful now.”
I think I was little scared with this. But we’ll see if it was good thing to be scared or not. Didn’t even open full position in there.
Edit… Okay. That was pro move to take some profits and then put BE there. Now price jumped back… Looking for new place to short.
Sorry for no screenies… Too busy looking these charts. I think I post screenies later thou. If I remember.
Well, it just wasn’t ready to go down yet. But hey, now we can open new shorts, if volume agrees of course. This might make new high? Or maybe triple top?
Hmm. It has hard time to break 61.8 fibbs right now.
I think I take new short. Risking only what I just made couple minutes ago. This is again very aggressive move by me. Classic. We’ll see how this goes.
two entries at bottom blue square, folowed it up and exited at the pinbar at the top.
I was mad that I missed that big draw down… so I decided to wait for the bounce off the 61.8 and get my money I coulda had. Never hit 61.8 but high volume pin bar and obvious reversal in trend made me enter and I got out when I saw the next big volume pinbar down.
Looking for long entries on the pullbacks once it comes up against volume and resistance levels looks to be the safer entry for the moment imo and has been for a while now. I’ll be keeping an eye out for topping as there’s a fair bit of “good” news floating around for EUR at the moment and if this doesn’t translate into much higher prices I’ll consider short positions.
Totally not pissed about friday no more. 
Guess you got out profitable already 
