10/09/'07 - USD Retreats After Nonfarm Payrolls

[B]Economic News

USD [/B]

The USD dropped massively on Friday upon the release of the US Job’s report, and in particular because of the extremely negative -4K figure of the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls. As could be easily predicted, investors and economists did not try to speculate or change their forex trading strategy on the present USD trend and continued to massively short the USD. The previous release was 68K, as the market expected 110K. Today, there is no market moving news expected to come from the US, as the only release will be US Consumer Credit which is expected to go down from 13.2B to 8.8B, and will probably not cause a major price movement in the USD.

The U.S. economic development is in serious difficulty. The mortgage industry’s decline donated to the net loss of 4,000 U.S. jobs in August and it was the first negative payroll report in four years. As it seems the housing market could sink the country into a full-blown recession. Next week’s economic reports include Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence; many economists estimate the U.S. economy’s trend will not make any dramatic correction in the short run.

[B]EUR [/B]

On Friday, the EUR broke the 1.3750 resistance level after the publication of the weak US economic data. As it seems at the moment, by many economists and major banks, the EUR is running ahead towards the next 1.3900 resistance level. On the basis of the last consecutive pessimistic news from the US economy, many traders have began to favor the 13 nation currency and little by little have begun to neglect and push aside the American Dollar. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold for the remainder of the year, but still we should see the beginning of positive momentum in the Euro zone economic condition. The ECB is going to release several important notifications in the following few weeks and decisions will depend on how the economy coped with the latest market turmoil.

As for today, the only major release that is expected to come from Europe will be the UK PPI Input and Output; both are expected at 8:30 GMT. The input is expected to rise from -5% to -3% and the output is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Both figures are expected to push the GBP up a bit if indeed the figures will be released inline with expectations.

[B]JPY [/B]

Friday’s US Jobs report took the USD down all across the board, and the JPY was no exception as we saw the USD/JPY touch 112.80 and the EUR/JPY 155.40. There is a distinct sentiment from traders to get away from carry trades, and the unwinding continues with no clear end on the horizon. The negative USD sentiment is now stronger than any interest rate trading potential. If the Feds will indeed cut the rates as expected, the carry trades will probably take even longer to come back.

As for today, Core Machinery Orders is expected to be release tonight at 23:50 GMT with expectations standing on 5.2% which is a massive increase from last month’s -10.4% and might generate JPY appreciation on top of the strengthen trend already in motion.

[B]Technical News [/B]


The pair is in the middle of a very strong uptrend at the moment, and the breach through the 1.3740 level which was a strong resistance and a key Fibonacci level, indicates that the move is validated and we might see the positive momentum continue to the 1.3900 level. The hourlies are a bit overbought which indicates that buying on dips might be preferable.


The uptrend the cable is going through seems to be very strong and the daily chart validates that there is still room to run. The 4 Hour chart is confirming that the momentum up is still quite strong and that 2.0400 is a valid next target.


After touching the 112.80 level for the second time this month, the pair seems to be consolidating around the 113.00 level. There is a bullish cross forming on the 4 Hour chart that indicates a slight correction up before the bearish move continues. Selling on tops might be preferable today.


The pair is consolidating at the 1.1860 level after the sharp drop from 1.2100. The momentum is bearish and the next key level will 1.1820 which is the bottom of the last downwards move which started at 1.2462. If a breach through that level will occur a stronger bearish move will be validated that might take the pair to the 1.1740 level.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil [/B]

The perfect channel configuration continues with full steam, as the oil now floats on the bottom section of the channel. The RSI is firmly on the 50 level together with the slow stochastic that strengthens the notion that the momentum up is still strong. This provides Forex traders with the opportunity of a great entry point to go long on a very healthy uptrend.