I like FTMO but the no news trade, no night and weekend position did not work for me. FTMO is excellent for scalper and daytrader. So, I went with MFF.
no surprise to have 11 losers in a row, then, i hope?
out of any 100 consecutive trades, the chance is more than 50% that you’ll have 11 consecutive losers somewhere, with that win-rate
that isn’t the main problem, though - the main problem is that without having any very long runs of consecutive losers, you’ll often be in a position where you’re 25 trades down on balance
this is why, with no criticism implied at all, i want to add my voice to those above wisely pointing out that this R:R and win-rate are unsuitable to anyone other than a very experienced trader with a detailed understanding of the statistics and probability functions involved in trading
and if your win-rate creeps down from 33% to 29%, which could easily happen, you won’t have a way of working out that that’s what has happened: you will just think you’re having a “bad patch” of the kind you very often get with a 33% win-rate
that isn’t your fault at all, but it’s a reality
if your method is based on something valid, with an edge, it will be possible to trade it safely with a much lower R:R and higher win-rate, as rightly mentioned above
i wish you well with it
What I see recommended often, because it is a great book, is Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Also, Tom Hougaard talks about how to handle losses.
Hi @Joanne852. This is very normal when you begin trading. However, you can mitigate the reluctance to execute trades by reducing your position size to 0.5% per trade. You can also trade on higher time frames such as H4 and D1 as this could reduce the anxiety of always placing a trade. You could also pick a few pairs to trade.
Stay strong and resilient, my friend. Losing streaks are part of the trading journey, and they test our perseverance. Take this time to reflect, regroup, and refine your strategies. Remember, even successful traders face setbacks. Surround yourself with a supportive community and stay motivated. Don’t give up—embrace the challenges as opportunities for growth. Wishing you a wonderful weekend and a fresh start ahead!
thank you for your advise, yes, i m gonna improve it with lower RRR but higher win rate, its safer in any ways
@AnalyticsTrade thats it true, thats why i come to babypips, people in here are so supportive and friendly
you too, wishing you all the best and success
Dang that’s high. Over what time period or # of trades though?
149 out of 179 trades were closed in profit.
Eleven lost trades in a row is well within normal parameters for the win rate and reward to risk ratio you mention using. If your figures are right, your system is profitable.
That said, the psychological toll of long losing streaks can be crushing even for the most hardened and experienced of traders.
There is a solution.
Look for an alternative strategy that has a much higher win rate. It will inevitably mean accepting a lower reward to risk ratio of course. Let’s say you identify a strategy with a slightly higher win rate of 50% say. You can now reduce the necessary reward to risk to 1.5:1 and still be profitable.
As a general rule of thumb, the higher the win rate, the lower the probability of you encountering a long losing streak and the better you’ll sleep!
Hope this helps.
Hello @DanLondon , thank you for your response, yes, I do agree what you said , I m now trying to improve my system.
Honest experience, 11 streak losses will not be uncommon with a 1:4 R:R or higher.
Streaks of 5 will be very uncommon with a 1:1 R:R.
11 lose, but what and how was your performance before? What happened, this is the 1st question to yourself.
Try to stop trading for 2 days and something else absolutley different and far away from trafing. Even don’t think and talk about it.
Then sit down at the right time and just start to whach a naked chart for a while. Identify key levels, where supply or demand occur. Forget your system and switch on only the 20EMA and 20MA (or what you prefer) and try to concentrate on the candlestick formations, where are the good signals and how they are related to the indicator. If you trade on pairs where a lot of “smart money” work, you will encounter sudden irregular moves that stops you out easily.
Take a break after three losing trades and try again the following day. Analyze what went wrong after the end of the trading day.
Such situations happens, pal… The matter is not to give up and continue analyzing the charts and hope for the best. Especially since you said you’ve noticed some good positions to enter and was afraid of doing it.
Psychology in trading is a very broad and hard topic to master. Everything comes with the experience, once you got such a lose streak, there’ll be a win one. Keep your head up, good luck!
Feel like you are afraid to loose money,
probably something in your mind says you aren’t capable of loosing money.
and that’s just because you want to avoid pain of loosing money.
i tell you the coping strategy that i have read in psychology books:
try to learn meditating at first and learn to concentrate
there are two possibilities either you have monetary pressure in your life to make money so you can’t take the pain of loosing money or you don’t internally believe that your strategy is profitable and after these stops you’ll have a period of winning trades.
whatever the problem is try take a small step toward keeping the trade going on.
if it hits the TP you have a positive experience that you are capable of trading well and if it hits the SL you got to know either this is part of the game and it happens or there are some bugs that you can use the lost and improvise.
“what doesn’t kill me, makes me stronger”
a backtest will tell you what was your profit/loss/equity and win/loss ratio, etc, while trading some period of time from the past…
…but it does not say anything about what will happen when trading live…
you can quote me on that.
I think its time to go back to demo for a bit. Its not quiting to trade on demo.
Yes but this is the problem every combination has a specific end result and these are not even all the input values.
The hedge funds I was talking to didn’t have any clue that they could only pinpoint one single output (UHN → VHNW/UHNW) with an 80% risk to capital (it was crypto - via arb - so their fund managers didn’t care).
If you’re trading $1,000 units (not capital but unit size), and want 150%pa net return you are risking 99% of your capital, not drawdown because anyone who knows how the markets really work don’t worry about that number, profits come and go but preservation of capital is key.
Even 2&20 hedge funds only target 20% risk to capital which is why they always underperform at 13% net, you have to spend all those days, weeks, months, years finding the exact combination that works for you which is why no one ever talks about it, because they only know what works for them and only them!