With thanks to the [B]1500 pips per month[/B] thread, from which I have formed a very specific VSA strategy - The trend continuation setups I have found to be the safest and most profitable trades and even more so the easiest to identify.
The basis of it is to trade with the trend off of support and resistance on low volumes, and specifically a low volume pin bar.
Here’s the entry from earlier on -
The basics are, low volume on troughs shows an uptrend and low volumes on peaks indicate a downtrend.
I recommend using MBTrading MT4 Volumes for this purpose it’s the easiest way to identify the trades.
Hi there,
Can I ask how you’re determining your trend?
Reason being, price has also bounced the lower band at the red line you’ve drawn on 1.4150. What emphasis are you placing on shorting eur/usd as opposed to going long on moves back to support levels?
Not looking to pick holes, just interested in where you’re coming at it from regards the trend part.
I just go with trend, I determine trend just by looking at the chart, if you were to zoom out on that chart you would easily see it as a downtrend in a wide range, but as for the above the low volume really stands out and it’s on a peak so it’s a downtrend.
No, I don’t see it. I’m looking at a months worth of data on that timeframe & all I see is chop. There are three higher lows above the most recent July low of 1.3830 on that timeframe at 1.4050, 1.4100 & 1.4130-50 that are currently canceling out a downtrend.
I don’t know about you but if I open a chart out to show only the last 8 months worth of data I see a bullish-neutral picture off the years low at 1.2870. Which is why I was curious to see where you were coming from regards the downtrend.
I think your idea is as good as anything else out there & has merit, but I’m not so sure the current eur/usd picture does full justice to your thread title.
You’re falling into the trap that many traders do, your looking into it far too much, you don’t want to be looking at more than a few days worth of chart to trade the 15min, if you just zoom out from that chart you can see that it’s quite rangy but with a short tendency.
You need to understand VSA principles to see just how powerful this strategy is, I think that a strategy that has just pinpointed a trade with potential of over 200 PIPS profit with an SL of less than 20PIPS has a little bit more than merit.
I think even I’m capable of distinguishing trend continuation from rangebound conditions over a couple of days worth of data. If you want to see what a proper trend continuation looks like pull up a Swiss chart.
Your first reply suggested if I were to zoom out I would [U]easily[/U] see a downtrend in a wide range. The second one shifted to quite rangy with a short tendency. So is it a clear downtrend or just a hint of one?
Quite rangy with a tendency doesn’t really match up with what I would describe as trend continuation. But maybe that trap has me well & truly snared.
Neither did I, nor am I doubting the power or the potential of your approach. I simply asked for clarification of your definition of trend in relation to the thread title.
I am a little confused to about your down trend. I understand the concept of your strat and it makes sense. I just dont see in your example an EU down trend. Trade looks like a nice win :35:
With the trend, on your chart it’s a range, you have to actually switch to a 1hr chart to see that the ‘trend’ is down i.e. the price action before the range was higher so it’s a short bias.
But the key thing is the Low Volume, it shows that there is further interest in that direction, so at the top of a range a low volume will confirm that the price will stay in that range, and you can see the 3 tests, so good safe trade with the unusually low volume, it has to be lower than any of the bars from the first of the magenta ones, and note I use MBT trading for the purpose of this strategy it’s the best I find to identify relevant low volumes.
As with any strategy it’s when the market is trending it works best, and this trade was a make fit, aren’t all trades a make fit?
I’ve been trading this for a while, and it does what it says on the tin, same idea yesterday
Another scalp, it’s the low volume that’s the key, and on that chart it just looks bearish in itself.
I say it time and time again, trade off of support on an uptrend and vice versa, so in both these cases it’s off of resistance, ok at the moment the market is rangy, but I’d rather be short on it any day, on the whole it looks more bearish, but with a very low volume at the bottom, it could be an opportunity to go long.
And of course I forgot, a peak on a low volume is a downtrend and a trough on low volume is an uptrend, or should I call them swing highs and swing lows? (sorry I’m terrible with terminology - 'cos it don’t make any cash!)
Just a suggestion, but you might want to seriously consider pulling the trend continuation bit out of your thread title because it’s only serving to confuse you & detract from the main purpose of your work.
It’s not the terminology you’re struggling with it’s the basic identification process between range & trend.
At least you’re in the right place. This is a learning hub for new traders & those looking to find their feet. If you conduct a search of the site you’re sure to unearth information that will help you better understand.
There have been three separate posters to the thread so far & only one appears to be experiencing difficulty with this aspect. Therefore there is no [B]us[/B], it’s only you.
I could help sure, but in light of your attitude towards me yesterday on another thread, highlighted below, I’ll pass on this one & allow someone else to bask in the satisfaction of your gratitude
Like I said, do some research & you’ll find what you’re looking for.
It appears I also knew & fully understood what I was talking about on that thread too huh?
Oh yes, that post that you so quickly deleted after I responded to it, I wonder why? well no I don’t actually, It was on eremarket’s thread, for which I have challenged his theories and he really has come up trumps and deserves much respect, now please ‘stop runner’ leave us alone and let us hit our ‘take profits’.
No, the post I’ve highlighted above. That’s the one I’m referring to. Don’t go confusing yourself on yet another issue, you’ve got enough work to do as it is.
I’ll certainly leave [B]you[/B] alone because as yet there is no [B]us[/B]. To be absolutely certain of that you can pop into your user control panel where you have the option to place me on your thread ignore list
I’ll leave you to carry on ‘taking your profits’ – just be careful you don’t trend when you should be ranging or range when you should be trending. That might get a little painful.
That’s the smartest thing to do as far as this newbie is concerned.
You’re well out of it. This guy has adopted the attitude with others in the past who’ve tried to help or steer him in another direction.
Trouble is he thinks he knows it all & he then goes off on one dishing out his sarcastic & ignorant comments, yet when you defend yourself all of a sudden it’s trolling or bullying & before you know it everything goes to hell in a hand basket.
Thanks for very interesting strategy purplepatch. I have always enjoyed your strategies and I know you from Pete’s thread of course. I just hope you will keep posting in this thread! I will need more time to understand and try your concept out tho.
2Stop runner: Did you really have to waste two pages for your miserable word diarrhea? If you don’t like the strategy, don’t waste your time on it. Thanks!
Thanks SagiCZ I certainly will be posting, this is the easiest, safest strategy I have used, again patience is key, it can only be 3 trades a week, but you can expect a very high win rate, so it could easily be 30 + 30 + 30 PIPS in a week, or at least 30 + 30 -30, if your using the technique for scalping, but since we trading with the trend you can also find yourself in some nice ‘whoppers’ (to coin a technical term). And sometimes you can get setup after setup after setup, but then again that’s the nature of trading and any system.
I saw some honest questions.
Dunno why you felt the need to post what you did.
Stoprunner already decided it wasn’t for him/her, and bowed out gracefully.
No need to add to the problem.
PPF, as for the last trade IMG you posted up there, you went counter-trend as far as I can see.
What discerns the difference for you?
The thread title, and that trade don’t exactly go hand in hand.
I think even I’m capable of distinguishing trend continuation from rangebound conditions over a couple of days worth of data. If you want to see what a proper trend continuation looks like pull up a Swiss chart.
