& desirable dusty completes the ‘holy trinity’… :40:
Hey soultrain - I don’t feel I am wasting time or energy -rather the opposite - in patiently waiting for proper “better” setups on the 3 Ducks - I am also exploring the fact that. . .
" . . . the 3 Ducks closely resembles what we do . . . " and so I feel there may be “more” as in extra chances to get into the market with a reasonable expectation of gaining a profit, as the 3 Ducks just closely resembles what you/others know and do. I am simply trying to add another tool to the tool shed.
Sure it may be a colossal waste of time - but I will be learning on the way.
Also mentioned to me is that this is scalable - as in - can be an intraday trade template - or multisession set up - or even multirollover - - - I am, I believe grasping only the indtraday template - and I would like to delve into longer term set ups as well.
So with a couple of crumbs left behind, I feel there may be a bit more I could learn. (again maybe not?)
(Now on a personal note - - I do trust, and believe in what you ‘guys’ are saying. . . so am I really wasting my time?) As you still have the same opinion as before?
Maybe I am just dense and you have to tell me two times?
Anyhow - thanks for the post
EDITED – in hindsight - I guess, if what I am currently doing can be duplicated each month – I am very pleased, and should not be greedy. . . it is just that I’ve not got enough experience to say that it can be duplicated each month.
I’m a little confused here.
You mentioned your more successful forays into the market are the result of following the 3 Ducks style of identification/application, then you add the following….
Define “more” or extra chances/another tool stuff.
I don’t know where you’re coming from with that comment.
You seem to be implying you’re trading an intraday version of the 3 Ducks approach, yet in your earlier post you mentioned this……
So what exactly [B]are[/B] you doing & what do you suppose you’re learning by diverting focus away from identifying, applying & executing higher probability gambles?
I assumed the reason you asked for direction in the first place was because what you were currently utilizing and/or what you’d utilized in the past wasn’t working.
You are correct, what I’ve been doing up until now has not had a positive return.
I was trying to quote a statement made by one of the ‘group; when I quoted:
". . . the 3 Ducks closely resembles what we do . . . "
therefore by inference, I suspect that you do not “do” the 3 Ducks per say. . you probably simply have a different view without the SMA’s. . to which . . maybe one could assume, that although the 3 Ducks in its’ own right is awesome. . there may be a very similar approach, which upon closer inspection may get more opportunities within the market. (I have been advised, I will likely be out of the market more than in the market with this method) (I have been advised that some weeks may present many entries, while some weeks I may be lucky to find 1) So with those weeks in mind - some sort of range play may net positive results as well??
Yes - along with using the 3 Ducks and the hook methodology to gain entry with the flow of the current trend -
I am experimenting with a basic trend line bounce ( a reversal technique, if you will)
I am also trying to identify the ‘scalable’ (is that a word?) type of plays - - Again it was mentioned some folks use for intraday - and some use multirollover - -
For example - lets say one of your cronies uses the hook methodology for multi-rollover trades (lasting days or weeks) - is it the exact same entry technique? And you just know to hold the position longer or - is it a larger time frame based entry ?
Again - yes, I am here for the help, I may need a complete reboot- and factory install, so I do appreciate your constructive comments.
If the above post is sign of things to come then you’re already diluting your time & focus & becoming distracted from your primary goal when there’s no need to.
Advice & suggestions have been dispensed multiple times on how you might re-boot & clear your cache whilst starting afresh building a solid framework based around logical, efficient identification, application & execution.
What you do with that advice & whether you decide to take those suggestions on board is down to you.
You only have very limited time & finances available, so it’s imperative you maximize those resources.
If you’re convinced that diversifying those two important assets so soon into this fresh journey is the way forward then so be it.
Personally, I think you’re headed for yet another car crash but what do I know.
But you’ve already received the advice, suggestions & recommendations. Folks can only repeat these things so many times. Eventually it’s up to you whether to employ them or not.
Just take a look at your most recent example to understand what soultrain & compact are very gently trying to impart.
Revisit posts 172, 173 & 174.
You’ve been presented with a default directional based momentum approach wrapping 2 foreground entry triggers around a two-tiered hourly background framework. To make life even simpler you’ve been directed & encouraged to employ Andy’s 3 Ducks template that offers you a parallel line.
That one set up will offer you more high probability day and/or swing opportunities than you can shake a stick at over the long haul yet you insist on making life unnecessarily harder for yourself by adding extra work that isn’t required.
Had you waited patiently for the hook set up on audjpy around the 7th instead of heading the wrong down a one-way street you would have effortlessly eased yourself into the next higher probability leg up on that pair & enjoyed a stress free ride this week.
The swing cycle was clearly up.
You even had additional 3 Ducks confirmation indicating the likelihood of bullish continuation.
All you had to do was sit & wait for either a 4 hour hook or breakout, a 1 hour hook or breakout or a series of sub-hourly hooks/breakouts on either the 5 and/or 15 minute trigger charts.
At the same time you were placing your low probability reversal short bet [B][U]against the dominant flow[/U][/B] at 95.54, regular punters of Dan & soultrain who were already seated on that pair were preparing to pyramid a continuation swing back through 95.0, adding on sub-hourly hook plays during the 11th & 12th.
Engaging in exactly the same principle that’s been presented to you on here.
A good percentage of those punters were still comfortably seated well into this week whilst you got shaken out days ago because you were facing the wrong way. A direction I might add you shouldn’t even have been considering let along betting on.
It’s not difficult to see why you’ve spent the last 7 years running around in circles on here & if you continue in the same vein you’ll cover exactly the same ground again & again until eventually your engine gives up the ghost.
You simply don’t have enough time or money to spread yourself so thin attempting to catch everything that moves out there.
Thanks odds on - this post is fantastic - it does inform me of some key points. Also provides me the example in which I am trying to convey about 3 Ducks vs. other opportunities.
From post #172 where I did go short on aud/jpy - -I agree that was against the flow - and I also agree that my “other” methodology is faulty- therefore I will be giving up on it, and focusing on what you guys are saying.
But here is my conundrum - what your saying is “I’m not following 3 Ducks , or what you’re telling me”
So here is what I am trying to confirm You mention in this post “play a 4hr hook” as part of your comments - - - (I cannot imagine - , I have not verified, but I cannot imagine that within the 3 Ducks “rules” that a 4hr hook will have the Price and SMA’s properly positioned on the 1 hr chart.
What I mean by that is on the 7th - as you mentioned -I see a very solid entry on the 4 hr hook - (which I assume is one that you likely perceived as an entry point as well)
From what I understand - that entry would NOT be part of the 3 Ducks methodology as the 1 hr sma is down and price is below it – -- this is the distinction I am trying to make - -
Do you consider that a valid entry? if yes, Do you agree it does not follow 3 Ducks?
If yes on both accounts - this is what I am trying to ‘pinpoint’, a trade outside of 3 Ducks methodology -but still a valid and good entry. (and stating the obvious obverse - I would have missed that entry because it did not adhere to the rules of 3 Ducks).
EDITED :: I think I have discovered my problem - I am looking at this way to technical - I believe maybe it might be as simple as - - if it looks like a duck , and quacks like a duck, then likely it is a duck. (this is no relation to the 3Ducks, this is a saying that is common - so I could have said if it looks like a dog and barks like a dog, the likely it is a dog)
(which refers to - if it is a 4hr hook , in an obvious trend, and the HH HL structure is still intact nicely ) then likely is a duck.
And with this approach, I can see where there are many many more opportunities than strictly sticking with the 3 Ducks.
I didn’t state it was a strict, valid 3 Ducks entry though. I was simply once again reminding you of the generic structural/cyclical momentum behavior you’re meant to be focusing on, [I]but it appears from your last couple of edits/posts the penny might at last have dropped![/I]
The priority timeframe in that tiered combination is the 4 hour.
On & around that date the 60sma wasn’t compromised.
Price didn’t close or drop through that 94.50 area, neither did it violate the prior higher low at 93.75, therefore the current bullish structure remained intact.
If price fails to push through & violate the prior higher low on your primary background chart template, what does that signify?
If however, you take a peek at the activity on the 11th & 12th you’ll note there were valid opportunities to engage that continued bullish flow.
That’s what i was referring to in your specific case.
Shadowline actually reiterated the generics of what you’re supposed to be training your mind & eye on in his most recent post of last week.
Don’t lose focus of what it is you’re [B]really[/B] undertaking when applying the concept of 3 Ducks!
Don’t lose focus of what it is you’re [B]really[/B] undertaking when applying the concept of 3 Ducks!
That is exactly what happened - I’ll take a closer look at your comments again - -but at work and probably should get off the forum. . .
But yes. . I was going to mention in my specific example - but I didn’t continue on far enough - that the 4 hr hook on the 7th - (as of before not valid) (as of now is valid) I was going to say I’d have to wait until the 12th for all the ducks to line up, and then gain entry.
Hello everyone, long time observer of this thread. Thank you for your excellent work.
I am wondering how you handle trend direction changes, in line with Andy’s 3-ducks methodology. I am following the Advanced method (best 200eur I’ve spent) which includes a more thorough analysis of 4hr SMA slope and position vs price.
Taking the GBPUSD chart below as an example, spanning the last 3 months, we would have:
(1) Look for shorts
(2) Flat as a pancake - stay out
(3) Look for shorts
(4) Stay out
(5) Look for longs
My challenge is with transition points from long to short and vice versa, ie points (1), (5). For example, in (5) I was generally still bearish and reluctant to take long positions, missing out on a nice directional 500 pip rally.
Additionally, the break below the SMA at (6) got me expecting a reversal and waiting for shorts, as was the previous sentiment of the market, rather than just a pullback. I missed the move from 5200 to 5500.
a) How do you deal with transition points?
b) How much weight do you put on the longer term trend, for example on the Daily / Weekly? Do you wait to be aligned with the 4hr so that you are “trading with the trend” ?
Thanks in advance.
I would imagine given the fact you’ve participated in some kind of advanced 3 Ducks tutorial fxsnowball, one of the first questions I’d ask you is – how does Andy suggest you tackle transition points?
I’m pretty sure any of those guys would enquire also, reason being you might already have been advised an appropriate tactic that suits the specific style he has imparted.
But if you read through some of their posts where they discuss the common levels such as previous day, week & month highs & lows & particularly how they suggest & advise people prepare for them, that might offer you another angle to consider.
For instance, your arrow number 4 at that higher low point on April 15th/16th is the 2nd higher low on that timeframe & the 3rd on the 1 hour timeframe. Both of course play out the correct side of the 60 simple moving average.
It’s also forming that stair step cyclical action they mention so much, which just happens to be leading into the previous week’s high at 1.4980. That level is also the high of week ending 27th March.
There are a few posts where they mention the importance of placing trades ahead of these typically reactive levels to try & ensure you’re not shaken out prematurely if & when increased volatility affects the price action.
As they say, profit limit & buy/sell stops are often placed leading into & out of these daily & weekly levels which can often cause whippy activity until the orders aggregate & either continue with trend or reverse & consolidate.
Like I say, bringing those levels into your preparation work might help the decision process?
But before you go adding any more layers I would refer to or revisit any suggestions & advice Andy has offered on the subject.
sketcher makes some very good & valid points.
If I was using 3 Ducks the only additional observations would be those key levels + the stochastic hook option to get me in early on pullbacks at the appropriate times.
I also totally agree with his remarks regarding Andy’s input, especially considering you’ve interacted closely with him on the advanced course.
If you haven’t already done so & if he hasn’t covered that scenario to your satisfaction then you really should approach him first to obtain his view because as sketcher rightly states, he may have a very specific angle on preparing for, applying & executing transition phases.
This question has to be answered in the context of the 3 Ducks approach because I assume it forms your primary means of market interaction?
If [B]I[/B] was betting 3 Ducks exclusively I wouldn’t be placing any weight whatsoever on the daily or weekly frame of reference because it forms no part of that tiered combination structural approach.
The trend you’re focusing on is playing out on your primary or leading frame of reference, which in this instance is the 4 hour chart.
The only alignment you should be interested in is the 4 hour/1 hour combination in tandem with the 60SMA.
If you’ve been reading the submissions you’ll have noted the various comments about technical positioning riding fundamental/sentiment flows?
At your transition arrow No 4 players were feeding in tentative bets on a return to government of the conservative party, which was the major focal point around that date.
[I]Week Commencing April 20;[/I] Bank of England minutes presented a far less dovish economic picture than was expected, translating (to the market) into a higher forward inflationary uptick - & what type of sentiment reaction does potentially higher inflationary numbers usually equate to?
[I]Week Ending May 8;[/I] Not only were the conservative party returned to government they were re-installed under a majority mandate.
[I]Week Commencing May 11;[/I] Stronger than expected production numbers support & further boost the positive sterling flows of the previous few weeks.
When the sun comes out on a regional currency the bets pile in thick, fast & often.
When the rain storms gather on a regional currency the bets pile in thick, fast & often.
When the skies of a regional currency are full of clouds the bets ease & net off.
I’m just to anxious to wait until the end of the month. . . gotta learn more patience. . . Anyhow - last week was a bummer, lost a few percentage points, but stayed true, and at the moment with all S.L. in place, I’ll be even for the past two weeks, so a bit of a bright side. . . I am hoping a couple entries I made will come to fruition and then I can say “My account is more positive than two weeks ago. and for the month - a generous positive.” anywho – when it works it’s cool. I believe I still overtrade. . and I do not have a definite plan yet. . but it is coming. . . lets see how the next two weeks turn out.
Again - thanks to all who keep me focused.
I imagine that since you’re in full-time employment you’re adopting more of a swing type approach Perch Tird?
When you say you’re still over trading do you mean you’re placing too many positions at once? Because during the last 2 weeks there’s only really been a small handful of quality background set ups to pick from.
That USD/CAD pair highlighted over a week ago is very obviously still in play from a foreground perspective having not come even close to violating its trending structure, as are GBP v/s CAD, AUD & EUR + AUD/USD & USD/JPY.
I’m curious to know what plan you think you should have.
What do you mean by not having a plan exactly?
If you know how to identify & filter quality background structure & you know how to recognise when your entry trigger is setting up & you know how to calculate your acceptable risk/position sizing & trade management objectives then surely that constitutes a basic plan does it not?
Well it certainly would in my book.
It’s quite re-assuring to see I’ve got the same pairs on my watchlist.
Did you see the Aud pairs (GBPAUD & AUDUSD) this morning?
I had a set-up on both of them but saw that they had both travelled their average daily range by the time London was opening, so that made me a bit wary of entering. The overnight news from Asia was Aussie negative, explaining the big move already undertaken, but I wonder if you entered still?
I know that sometimes big enough market drivers can just blow ADR’s away & there’s a time to respect it & a time to ignore it, but this seemed somewhere inbetween to me. In the end I didn’t enter, though it looks like both would’ve worked out ok.
Could depend on your personal objectives I suspect - a medium/longer term objective might not pay as much attention to the ADR, whilst a shorter-term trade outlook would have to give it more weight…?
If you know how to identify & filter quality background structure & you know how to recognise when your entry trigger is setting up & you know how to calculate your acceptable risk/position sizing & trade management objectives then surely that constitutes a basic plan does it not?
I know the outline presented in this thread & elsewhere looks easy on paper, but it still takes a lot of practice & patience (well, for me at least) & trade management really is another whole ballgame…
But a big thing has been beginning to see the market structure in terms of higher probability set-ups. The 60sma’s on the 4h & 1h can help, but looking directly at the highs & lows on the chart & trying to interpret that into higher/lower probability set-ups is providing benefits.
I don’t have enough experience or trades under my belt yet to be too sure of myself, but hearing of others who seem to have done well following this route gives you a bit of a push to carry on when you need it as well.
Hi kechel,
Yes I did see them & was aware of the driving force behind the latest impulse move but like you, I’m not trading either of them this week.
I’m still in USD/CAD & decided to trade USD/JPY yesterday on that shallow pullback into the European session.
I still go through the daily/weekly identification & filtering routine even if I’m currently trading something else as I find it helps to practice & sharpen my observation skills. Plus of course it’s no hardship as it only takes 5 or 10 minutes to pick out the cleaner spotlight pairs.
I also don’t trade FX exclusively, so am tending to roll my trades over wherever & whenever possible, only really taking the clearer, higher probability opportunities.
To be honest I let more slip through the net than I currently take, but that’s no problem.
From what little I’ve observed so far, the approach presented here appears to highlight & capture its fair share of regular daily & weekly opportunities.
As regards the ADR, I’m focusing more on the weekly ranges than the intraday for obvious reasons, but as you’ve alluded to, I would consider very carefully about entering trades if the usual range had stretched too far beyond it’s normal boundary regardless the reason.
Again, there doesn’t appear to be a lack of decent quality intraday opportunities, so if the odd one or two slips by due to those types of circumstances I doubt very much it will impact too negatively on the longer term outcome.
I’d just like to thank the participants of this thread for their insights and prompting to look for the highest probability setups. I’ve used a 3 ducks style for a while, and whilst reasonably successful I was probably guilty of over trading through a combination of impatience and not seeing the wood for the trees.
Since coming across this thread my trading has slowed right down, and the number of losing trades has dropped significantly.
I’ve followed the advice to identify the main trending candidates - no more than 3 or 4 to watch and in the past few weeks only 1 or 2. If none are trending obviously on the 4h then I’m learning to wait. Then just follow the 1 hour hooks, and preferably in conjunction with the 3D smas. This leads to some fairly safe entries and occasionally I’ll just use the hook if the structure looks very good. Sometimes if the 3D breakout looks good I’ll take that but I need to see some pullback first (something the stoch trigger is very good at identifying). I do however need to look at how I’m takings profits - it’s clear that when a good trend is established I am often leaving a lot of points behind.
Using this approach so far in May I’ve taken 14 trades, with 10 clear winners. At least two of the losers were taken early on and in retrospect should not have been taken.
The other big bonus is that I’ve stopped looking at finding strategies to keep me trading all the time - bouncing off trend lines, s/r range trading etc. Its given me stacks more time which I spend down the gym and so feel healthier as well as much more confident in the trades I do take.
If people are struggling for consistency with this approach, then the one thing I learned which has helped immeasurably is this:
If you can’t identify within 2 seconds whether a 4 hour chart is trending, then it probably isn’t, so move on.
cheers Sketcher,
Me too - like a lot of things with this, repetition does help. I found that even with the pullback trigger, it was a bit counter-intuitive at first, looking for an entry as price moves in the opposite direction to what you want, but you get used to it after a while, especially after a few winning trades off it.
I also don’t trade FX exclusively, so am tending to roll my trades over wherever & whenever possible, only really taking the clearer, higher probability opportunities.
I would like to diversify beyond FX as well at some point. I have a look at the Indices & Metals available on MT4 but they don’t seem to offer any cleaner set-up’s than what’s already there with the fx pairs…
I agree here - trade management is key of course. Takes a bit of thinking about, what is possible for you as much as anything, eg. time available due to a job etc. Nothing’s perfect, but I’m trying 1 Take Profit target that could be hit Intraday, and then the remaining portion left to run & added to if possible… in that way feeding in the rest of a stake as has been mentioned in some of the other threads.
If people are struggling for consistency with this approach, then the one thing I learned which has helped immeasurably is this:
If you can’t identify within 2 seconds whether a 4 hour chart is trending, then it probably isn’t, so move on.
:35: I’d say the same could be said of a 1h chart as well