The only way you’re going to find out if it’s a viable option for you personally is to try it.
Accurate record keeping & accounting will determine which type of jobbing scenarios are higher (risk & cost) probability candidates than others.
Hi DoubleEcho - your posts over near the beginning of the 3 Ducks Thread really helped my understanding of these kinds of mtf methods, thanks for those.
Regarding the non-automated orders you mention above, could you say anymore on the types of trade management you mostly come across with this type of template? I suspect the majority might use trailing intraday stops on the smaller timeframes, but I also see in previous posts that there is a sense that when a currency pair really gets on a roll we need to be making the most out of those situations by rolling over positions, and adding in where possible.
Taking those 2 views into account, is a discretionary trade management advisable in your opinion? Judging the current situation to decide how to shape the bet? Or do most people tend to stick with the same management for every trade? For instance, I feel I should be more heavily weighted towards taking profits at the minute, rather than looking to add & roll positions over.
I just wonder how in general terms you would balance, or get the most from, the short-term with the medium-term when it comes to trade manage the 4h/1h/5m type templates?
You’re welcome.
Glad some of it helped you to formulate what you’re currently utilizing.
We’re not privy to specific strategy information such as timeframe preferences, but we do get a flavor for what they’re focusing on & which instruments/asset classes are currently in vogue by the very virtue of their live & resting orders, well certainly those that are attached to our books anyway. Obviously they don’t place everything at the same shop, but the higher end players tend to build relationships with their suppliers more so than retail end clients.
When they manage to obtain a satisfactory average position they will generally stay seated for days/weeks rather than hours. They will also add - & depending on their strategy for that particular currency or individual bet - they quite often pyramid quite aggressively. So for instance where most retailers are scaling out & diluting their core position, those guys will be scaling in & running their bets.
But…you have to appreciate they will occasionally also be utilizing parallel or complimentary strategies to maximize their profit potential & minimize their drawdown percentages when they manage to lock into a favorable trend, depending on their view for that currency/pair.
It’s impossible to accurately mirror or compare what they do to what you’re attempting to do.
But you can pick up on some of their good habits such as scaling in & rolling bets over when in advantageous situations. Although you’ll never be able to replicate their equity management regimes because your/their capital & broker execution providers aren’t in the same ball park, but you can piggyback the concepts!!
Why?
Is it because of a capitalization issue?
If so, why not reduce your bet sizes to accommodate that aim.
If I ever find myself in the position of betting my own capital again I would be leaning towards rolling over & running my bets at every conceivable opportunity.
I would also be adding at every conceivable opportunity, not only that but I’d be diversifying across multiple asset classes.
But then I would have the capital availability to achieve those objectives, which is a huge advantage when looking to adopt that type of approach. I would also leave most of the order, grid & protection profiling to a robot.
If however I was only able to operate a modest/small capital base I would find a broker who could offer me small trade sizing options & scale/fit my risk profiling to my primary objectives.
It’s all about managing the equity base!
I recall reading on one of the template threads that someone mentioned firms occasionally share information with each other?
Just as a matter of curiosity more than anything else, is that the case with you guys too?
For instance, if/when you notice an abnormal influx of orders or bets in one particular currency or asset at a particular level/s would you usually cross check that with other brokers/firms? & does that scenario occur regularly?
I’m going to be cheeky & press you on that comment. 
Is there a current example of that taking place this week?
You mentioned in a reply to Perch Tird’s aud-cad post yesterday that aud & was well bid into this week’s trading & aud-cad was exhibiting the type of technical behaviour typical of what you guys have encouraged us to focus on.
Have your order books reflected that behaviour the past couple of weeks & if so do/would you advise your clients to perhaps focus on the price action of specific currencies/pairs?
That would put you & likeminded colleagues in other similar situations in quite a privileged position in that you get a really good look at not only what’s going on now, but what’s likely to occur further up or down the price ladder.
Powerful information to be privy to 
Occasionally, but it’s only usually ex-colleagues, particular suppliers you’ve worked closely with in the past or guys who perhaps specialize in a specific asset/instrument. It doesn’t happen much these days due in part to all the extra regulation put in place by the liberal hand wringing brigade.
Yes.
More prominently on some pairings than others, but that’s the case whenever a regional currency comes under the spotlight for however long & for whatever reason.
The (politically) correct answer is of course no
[I]“I would sell my very soul & not regret it”…[/I]
Before sharing plan for week ahead, can I ask for[U] opinion on how we retail traders[/U] (even if we have some connections)[U] can try to get as close as possible to actual order build-up[/U]?
You have been clear: it’s not possible to share real money flow info. Also, FX market has no center hub so (excuse me) even you guys at prime brokers don’t see whole picture.
So [U]what is best practice for retailers, to stay as close as possible to real money flow[/U]? I quoted a comment of yours above…so here’s process I use each day/week:
I have noticed how many bank reports “talk” about the same thing. So i try to follow what they talk about, then I look on charts to see if trending. Recently, they were talking about weak Nzd so I was looking to short Nzd pairs (long GbpNzd, AudNzd, EurNzd). Then slight sentiment shift on Aud, that break above a prior week high and last week I play AudUsd longs all week.
But each morning, I also try to read what participants are focusing on using IFR’s free report.
I try to follow “what is in play”…do you have better idea/suggestion?
Thank you
Not really.
Because, as you correctly note, the spot market is fragmented with no centralized exchange it’s particularly more difficult for non-industry participants to achieve that objective. The best you can do is what you’re currently engaged in - staying abreast of the primary influences & momentum drivers.
One word of advice would be not to take it too deep or overthink it.
If the market pulse is a strong & an obvious one you’ll see it being adopted via the technical positioning & as you absorb & process it you’ll soon discover whether it’s worthy of a potentially prolonged bet or it’s simply a knee-jerk type move to leg in & out of over a shorter time period.
There’s nearly always a theme or story circulating the markets which will put one of the 8 major regional currencies under the spotlight, be it an occasional recurring theme or one which holds the markets focus for an extended and/or prolonged period of time.
Access to quality news flow has also greatly improved over the past few years, allowing all sectors of the market place (especially retail) to incorporate this option into their daily & weekly planning structure.
Thank you cator - and I agree on information dissemination. So…getting serious:
Quiet week for Usd, Jpy & Aud…some minor data for Nzd, some decent data for EU & China.
I think market will be looking at FOMC speeches & ECB member speeches…so that will be more volatility in Euro pairs (i don’t like them at present) and Usd pairs. Usd pairs might be interesting again near end-of-week (AudUsd, UsdCad, NzdUsd).
So with no real drivers this week, themes from last week can remain in play with Gbp vs. USD, Nzd, Cad as best looking charts + Aud vs Usd & Cad. Tomorrow might already be interesting with Poloz speach.
Good luck!
Of course, my watchlist was screwed up this week Only survivors are Nzd & Cad short vs USD. I got into UsdCad yesterday on 1H pullback during EU, but got stopped today as not continue through 3300 but fall below asian low. Drivers changing and USD strong again.
I play NzdUsd short yesterday on double 1H top pullback, and stopped out with trailing today 6275.
I miss big move in Gbp 
So want to ask “noob” question on “bias”. For long time, I use prior week’s range as continuation/inversion box. So in the case of Gbp, since week 2 of september I long bias on GbpUsd. This week we start neutral…then we print lower 4H highs (see chart).
So today was first day for me to play shorts…but we already move a lot during week…not high odds…
Maybe little bit frustration but looking for alternative view
Thank you.
There is no alternative view to be honest.
It’s a skittish market at the moment which is being driven by conflicting sentiment.
If there’s no discernible bias or you can’t pin down a high probability positional stance then you have the choice of either standing aside, looking for something that’s offering you better odds or swap strategy/approach hats.
Whenever the market sniffs or senses indecision, especially relating to interest rates, they’ll become bored or ambivalent, pull their bets & gamble on a more likely outcome. Although the BOE have intimated the next move (on rates) will be up they’re continuing to sit on the fence regarding a definitive time/date, preferring to trot out their usual rhetoric of “waiting for firmer economic feedback”
Participants are taking the view (this week anyway) the US are likely to move faster than the UK therefore the fickle market players will change their priority bets & flirt with the Dollar rather than the Pound.
Thank you Apache
Thus week, I see surprising nzd strong…and GBP still weak. Usd has printed large pin-bar so maybe stay cautious before play more usd long bets.
Combine strong-weak I get exotic pairs this week: nzdcad long, gbpnzd short! Then also usdcad long and maybe nzdusd long.
We have fedspeak, us data, EU data…China data…then NFP at end of busy week.
So usd will be in play…
Thoughts?
Other than what you’ve already noted, no not really.
It’s another likely high volatility week & you’ve identified your priority pairings offering higher probability potential as the week opens up.
Whether they’ll still be on the front burner later on remains to be seen.
But whatever happens you can only play if the set ups & triggers (based on this template) offers you sufficiently acceptable odds.
To repeat the oft quoted preparation routine;
Identify
Filter
Execute
Manage
you’ve certainly been betting on the form horses this week.
any gambles on one or more permutations have yielded very decent returns.
usd/cad is coming off the boil this afternoon, but that’s your only fly in the ointment leading into tomorrow’s fun & games.
just proves the power in following the logical, common sense sequence!
Well done.
Thanks Double 6,
but last week was difficult for me…me was chopped twice, then 2 successful trades. I think end of month + end of quarter + NFP make things more difficult…maybe next time I just stay flat.
This week I continue to see short GBP vs Nzd, Cad & Usd (already in @5169); I also long NzdUsd as of today @6470; and watching EurNzd short as well.
Good luck to you this week!
I too have short GBPNZD & GBPCAD on the front burner for the third week running + GBPAUD. I’ve also added EURAUD onto that list this morning.
The only long candidate on my list for the second week running matches your choice too.
The stand out filter pairs are pretty clear to identify lately.
There’s been a noticeable uptick in long bets taken during the last 10 days on that cross than at any time this summer, & given the orderly decline, that signal is always an excellent indication to continue shorting with confidence!!
That short has been/still is a good gamble, well played!
Identify (correctly)
Filter
Execute
Manage!
That decision certainly paid off for you.
Smart bet, well done.
Some nice filter plays being demonstrated lately which makes life so much easier when these strong momentum moves grow legs.
Keep breathing in & out 