gbpnzd has haemorrhaged1500 pips & printed [B]no fresh hourly highs[/B] during the past 15 business days & yet as you (& dancat) report, certain sections of the retial community continue to load up longs all the way down.
Itās a similar story on nzdusd. Dan mentioned yesterday theyāve been taking steady amounts of bets to the short side on that pair since 0.64
A whole bunch of their stops collapsed this morning on those shorts as price pushed up through 65.50 as the realisation dawns itās not for turning, well not yet anyhow!
They do love making hard work of things donāt they lol.
Itās not like theyāre running decent sized accounts to absorb some of that horrendous drawdown either.
It really does beggar belief.
Yet another good week for you guys following the well-lit momentum trails.
Kiwi & Aussie have tacked on 4.3% & 3.9% respectively this month & loonie has offered a respectable 2.2% offset by the buck deflating a further 1%, making life easier for those of you chasing usd/cad down the ladder.
I know sketcher latched onto oil this week as it broke out through the 47.0 technical barrier & that too has inflated over 13% so far this month.
So, some good filter bets to have gotten your teeth into.
Keep identifying the stand out candidates & use the filtering process to manage the high probability watch-lists efficiently.
I too have taken on board the recommendations from you guys regards diversifying my exposure & began monitoring other asset classes a while back to see if the approach & specific set up worked as efficiently as it does on fx.
Initial observations are/were pleasingly positive & Iāve undertaken more varied gambles this week on silver as it moved up beyond the previous 2 weekly highs at 15.25 & the spx & as it held 1950. Theyāve both offered clear multiple 15 minute pullback hooks in line with dominant hourly momentum.
Silver particularly has moved nearly 9.5% month-to-date & the s&p 5.0%.
Iāve set separate commodity & indices templates to monitor & identify a varied selection of higher probability bets & am just concluding a shares screening template to pull up candidates based on specific criteria that matches this concept.
Locating this thread has been a very worthwhile & rewarding exercise!!
Good man, thatās what itās all about!
Itās a timeless & all encompassing template thatāll work on anything that moves.
It doesnāt get less complicated than that especially if you remove the moving average from your pictures
If youāve got a decent staking wedge & you want any assistance with that screener let us know.
Tess & Andre can put you in touch with long standing punters who engineer, run & gamble via their own screening software. Itās some of the best kit weāve ever seen & if nothing else theyāll tip you the nod & steer you towards criteria that works & more importantly what to avoid.
Thatās very kind, thank you.
Iām developing two at the moment, one of which is based around breakout highs & lows of pre-determined price/time.
Itāll be good to, at the very least, obtain feedback on the structural development of them & see if I can improve their efficiency, which I imagine will come via the filtering process.
Iāll definitely take you up on that offer later this month!
i just wondering āhow muchā qualifies as a ādecent staking wedgeā as you put it I too play stocks,would be curious to find out how to qualify to talk to these people. Little conservative on stocks, i use options but would love to learn & play like a pro. I also have other question/proposal but would prefer pm if possible?
You canāt private message here until youāve clocked up 50 posts trailingstop.
The guyās apache is referring to donāt teach or instruct. Theyāll offer input & pointers on already developed & finished product but thatās it.
You can private message either jjay or carll over here; Forex trading strategies and systems if you wish as thereās no minimum posting requirements on there.
When you guys say āSimple and unclutteredā you really do mean it donāt you Recognizing HH/HL & LL/LH does seem to get hidden sometimes when thereās too much other stuff to be thinking about.
I just have the MA on my 4h chart still as it gives me a quick aid to look at a pair & see if itās something I could begin to be interested in looking at closer & keeping an eye on, preferably as it breaks up through & holds over it-
Just regarding that thread, I tried to post on it a little while ago, but it looks like Admin (E Revy) hasnāt been logged in since July, so I think thereās no-one to approve posts by new membersā¦ unless thereās some other reason I donāt know ofā¦
As hawkmoon reminded a few posts back, if the cycle or sequence remains intact there really isnāt anything else to do other than continue betting in sync with it until itās compromised. Only then do you stand aside & re-evaluate.
Itās the true & only heartbeat or pulse of the market, not to mention the central cog in this approaches wheel. It supersedes or trumps everything else & the only difference in execution & activity between different folks operating it is their individual capital, risk & objective profiles.
Have you tried sending the admin an e-mail or private message kechel?
Iām not sure how the routine works regards access or posting approvals on there, but you might want to give that a spin.
Yes, Iāve sent a couple of emails using the āContact Usā page on the front of the site, but no reply or anything unfortunately. When you try to make your first post, you get a message saying you need to wait for Admin approval before your post will appear.
I agree with Aud strength this weekā¦also Nzd & Cad strength as well vs. USD and Jpy. In particular, earnings season will probably offer good opportunities to play xxx/Jpy in line with other drivers, based on risk on or risk off tone. Markets expecting bad earnings for Q3 though.
I also see continued weakness on Gbp crosses, and strength in Crude (as others have pointed out).
@laine, yes I understand thank you. I will think about when/what to pitch to carll or JJay, make sure I not make mess of opportunity.
NZD has still been the currency to back so far this week - against the USD itās still all Iāve needed to trade.
AUD is slightly on the backburner, but I thought Iād post these follow-upās to show how they are still on my watchlist, but Iām not actually trading them at the minute.
AUDJPY
As long as c.86.20 holds, this is still a potential Buy for me.
Yes, staying afloat above .6600 & that was a still a very high probability pullback long play & judging by the amount of shorts being opened into Tuesdayās business day, youāve been helped along the past couple of sessions by their exit stops pinging off, especially as New York entered the fray yesterday morning!
Similar state of play on Kiwi v/s Sterling with ambitious longs forced to cover yet again yesterday/today on the resumption of shorting pressure.
The busiest pair for stops being pinged this week however has been USDCAD.
They got caught with their pants down yesterday trying to run it up & no mistake!
If youāre facing the correct way & you wait patiently enough for the sound of stops pinging off you can bag a bargain or two!
Do you play Gold at all kechel?
That one has been popular with punters this week striking off this template.
Nice orderly continuation ascent after last weeks move.
I havenāt so far. I began to start watching it though, at first just to see if it give me any help with trading the currencies, but this week Iāve put Silver, Gold, DJ30 and S&P500 on my list to start looking at in their own right.
Another thing I do like about this template as well is that the discretion part is mainly in the risk management/trade objective parts ā for everything else, as long as these bets keep setting up, you just keep hitting them as long as your structure remains intact.
I too continued to benefit from Kiwi vs. USD & Gbpā¦but I wait for NzdUsd to show momentum and did not enter close to 6600ā¦maybe I less aggressive but lower high and lower low did not look good to me. Was there other entry possible?
I also shorted UsdJpy todayā¦first time it break last week low, and then pressure prior dayās low:
I scale out at 118.25 and holding rest for continuation maybe tomorrow. I like that market has pressed lows again after surprize US CPIā¦like a price/sentiment divergence!
Not if you didnāt feel inspired or comfortable taking it there wasnāt.
Your entry is/was fine & influenced by your own individual risk profile based on the information at hand.
If & when the sequence is violated or compromised on your time chart of choice you have the option of standing aside to re-evaluate.
Some folks view of the landscape & their entry criteria will naturally be more aggressive/passive than others. It doesnāt make them right or you wrong, just different.
Pressure was/is still bullish on Kiwi.
Up until the close of the 13th, which held north of .660, it had tacked on 7 straight days of green closes, the longest single stretch since January.
All things considered, in periods of strong bullish/bearish momentum odds generally tend to favor continuation legs rather than reversal ones.
only US fedspeak, so USD less active. I will continue to look for longs in NzdUsd and shorts in UsdCad. Cad also has the BoC meeting, so maybe best to wait until after meeting. Expected no change.
earnings season still: s&p above last months highs so still bullish; i will look to NzdJpy and/or AudJpy to play risk-on with China data (if good).
ECB meeting: i like Euro weakness on EurNzd, and if Draghi not dovish but hawkish, I stand aside.
Will only play GbpNzd again if UK retail sales weak. Otherwise, looking like strong vs. strong and not strong vs. weak.
apache,
It appears jjay is the only one with an open pm access over there so I sent him a private message re, the pre-market stocks scanners. Have yet to receive a reply so not sure if that site is prompting him with any new message updates?!
In the end I decided to focus on just the one & have it calibrated based on the types of candidates & set ups Iām looking for. Initial testing is positive, but obviously thereās a little more to it than simply the scanning exercise so would appreciate some input from those guys on prioritizing & grading the generic/sector selection & filtering process. Itās focused almost exclusively on US stocks for reasons Iāll discuss with them at the time.
I abandoned a similar exercise on fx in favour of pursuing sketchers preferred option of fully automating the entry-management-exit process.
Iām satisfied with my identification & filtering criteria on currencies & I feel automation will marry up well with my objectives, so Iām headed down that route too.
Recognizing HH/HL & LL/LH does seem to get hidden sometimes when thereās too much other stuff to be thinking about.
