The London session is the “king” of when price will most likely move - basically irrespective of the pair. So as you note - certainly matching the pair to its’ session may produce some good trades - -but really nothing tops the London for activity in a general sense.
(of course the overlap and NY session can make for interesting opportunities as well.)
As Perch Tird say’s, London & the hours leading into the mid afternoon of the North American business day are usually the optimum activity periods for the majority of regional currencies.
You’re ok to be considering bets on most pairs during those 2 sessions.
The Australasian sessions can be quite lively on occasion for Aussie, Kiwi & Yen related instruments, particularly when they release key economic numbers as you’ll observe if you plot those cross pairs, but again in the main they’ll tack on a good percentage of their movement during the busy European & North American business hours.
Question:
When trading the structure of the ‘trend’ does the “first” failed trade, then tell you that that structure is no longer ‘valid’?
Answer: (this is the answer I suspect I will get, so I guess I am asking to gain confirmation or clarification on what I think the answer is) Thanks
It depends 
or
Yes many times it does indicate the end of that structure - but also many times it may just be a pause and the structure may reinstate itself.
or
Just as in any other ‘decision’ making process within forex - the probability - - where I guess the probability of it (the trend not continuing. . . is MUCH higher than the probability of it continuing)
You’re never dealing with certain outcomes or cut & dried scenarios, so yeah it definitely does depend on the circumstances.
In the majority of instances the answer would be no, primarily because the breakdown might simply be a result of a one-off event or aberration.
It would appear rather premature would it not to abandon an established trend or bias, rendering it invalid, simply due to what might only amount to a temporary hiccup?
Just look at the recent behavior of GBPNZD to highlight that scenario.
Thanks for replies so far to my questions.
A trade to chuck out there to check if I’m on the right track.
Any comments welcome.
Thanks.
P.S Repeated comments below as bit blurry on charts.
Chart 1 :
My Higher TF Chart 4H
Some USD news to come @13:15pm
Chart 2 :
Trading Timeframe : 15M
Blue line is prior Days High
Drifting down overnight > then move up during London morning towards prior day’s high.
Went short on Stoch cross after it failed to reach prior days high.
Risk; 20 pips (other side of prior days high)
Target: 50 pips ( to reach prior day’s low)
Chart 3:
Shows second possible entry short after retest of previous high in Chart 2 and no success in getting to prior day’s high.
I’m pleased to see you mention that pair actually as I had it still featuring on my watchlist for the beginning of the week.
Most of my trades last week were made on Euraud up to the ECB announcement, but that’s now taken the Euro pairs off my radar for the time being at least.
I’ve highlighted below Audcad, Audjpy, Nzdcad & Gbpnzd.
We’ll see if the Aud & Nzd strength can continue.
There’s a kiwi rate announcement on Wednesday evening, but until then I’ll still look for set-up’s.
You’re quite clearly more than comfortable, not to mention competent with the concept kechel.
It should be no surprise for you to hear that the (consistently) top performers at the brokerage who play this style of approach have also been very heavily invested in the above exact same pairs for the past few weeks too, which I hope adds another notch to your confidence level.
[B]Identify
Filter[/B]
Execute
Manage
You’ll also no doubt be on top of the CAD/Oil relationship kechel 
USD/CAD has been holding higher weekly lows of late as oil has come under further pressure & put it’s sneakers on this morning attacking the prior couple of weeks highs.
Relatively high probability hook plays on that pair via 4 & 1 hour the last couple of weeks.
One to bring up onto your watch-list for sub hourly hooks if you haven’t already filtered it.
As with kechel, you’re also confidently demonstrating you’re getting to grips with it, particularly regards plotting your coiling breakout gambles.
As has been advised multiple times, it always offers much much higher probability & lower risk to get aboard these coiling pressure moves from underneath (or above) via pullbacks & play a sit-wait game as the breakout unfolds - or not!
Just as it’s far easier & less stressful to unwind a scratch gamble & re-assess if the b/o proves troublesome, than become entangled in a potentially messy battle if it fails to attract participation & follow through.
The added bonus being you’re already seated with excellent value if/when it does indeed grow legs & continue such as today’s usd/cad gamble.
Nice one!
There haven’t been too many lately which is why this one stood out like a bit of sore thumb.
I did however miss the optimum entry 3 weeks ago when that 4 hour hook formed at 3250 off the first clear breakout fail. I promoted it back onto my watch list that week & took my first bite on the next 4 hour hook during the 25th.
As you say, the risk to potential reward ratio is very positive when it’s being supported by higher low or lower high flows.
I like it a lot & will definitely be on the lookout for more that develop in future.
Yeh, that’s what led me to have the AudCad & NzdCad pairs on my list. Unfortunately I didn’t have UsdCad at the time as it didn’t look quite as clean to me, but it’s there now.
One to bring up onto your watch-list for sub hourly hooks if you haven’t already filtered it.
Done 
There was a good example today of where the identifying & filtering of higher probability pairs can still give you winners, even if they’re not the strongest running on a certain day. I’m learning that having the right structure in place on the 4h/1h can generally keep you on the right track, even when you mess up 1 aspect or another.
NzdCad took a bit of a backwards step this morning, but still managed to hold above its hourly HL, so was still an option for me to buy on dips.
It meandered for quite a while (not the perfect scenario for this type of bet), & almost got stopped out a couple of times but I let it run to see if New York could give it some legs, which it duly did after a while.
I was definitely on one of the weaker ponies out there today, but with the structure still being in place & the set-up appearing, it still allowed me a winning bet. So not my finest trade, but still a winner.
& thanks Double 6 & Sketcher - it’s always a help reading your advice & comments.
It’s certainly remained afloat since your post & as with usd/cad, looks to have attracted further cash injections.
Some nice (& classic) shallow 15 minute hooks on both of them today during the London session as oil continues to remain under the cosh. I’d imagine volumes will now begin to dissipate the closer we get to the xmas holidays, but the loonie, ably assisted by depreciating oil, has proved to be a nice steady gamble the past month.
Ya, thinning volumes are already noticeable on quite a few currencies already this week.
It can work for you just as well as against you though when you’re seated into a move that simply keeps jogging along, such as the 2 mentioned here this week.
The problems usually arise in liquidating markets when the order flow is predominantly one-way. It won’t unduly affect folks at the retail end gambling the typical bet sizes, but some slippage can still impact exits depending on time of day & outside influences.
Just be aware of that if you’re looking to engage between now & early January.
And if you’re looking to get out of a liquidiating move or catch a rise/drop into one, use your pullback hooks to negotiate them. Be very careful of using stop (b/o) orders in those situations.
When it was first presented over on the technical templates thread jitasb folks (probably naturally to be honest) would stress out about the precise turn & location of the stochastic, but as you become more familiar with its presence in relation to what it’s encouraging you to look out for, you’ll discover it really doesn’t need to be hooking under 20 for a long or above 80 for a short.
Providing the pair is trending on your primary or background timeframe of choice & it has pulled back & appears as though it’s clicking back into its directional cycle on your secondary timeframe of choice, you’re good to go. The hook is merely a natural by-product of the cyclical activity of a trending move.
As the guys have already mentioned, this is an approach of very, very few moving parts which lends itself perfectly to a plug-in-and-play type operation.
You can quite literally put it down, walk away & pick it back up again 6 or 12 months down the line confident in the knowledge it will continue to work just as efficiently as it did the last time you utilized it.
There really isn’t much that can go wrong with the set up & the beauty of it is you can apply it across a multiple array of timeframe choices, durations & objectives.
You were one one of the original participants of this model hawkmoon when it was part of the templates thread here & across at FSR. I assume from your comments you’re still currently playing it?
I can see where you’re coming from when you say it’s a timeless classic because at their core, the markets don’t really change much & will always drift into & out of strong momentum cycles. Which is the main reason i quickly bought into the concept when i first encountered it.
Do you operate it solely from one specific objective? or do you mix & match it with day & rollover objectives?
I did for 3 years wyntac, right up until I was offered & accepted a position in February 2014 with one of Tess & Jocelyn’s brothers. Still actively involved in financial betting, but working from a somewhat different angle than when I was gambling my own funds.
I used it primarily on day sessions. Occasionally I’d roll bets over, but during the period i played it rollovers only represented 38% of my total activity.
If I ever migrate back to working my own capital, which I’m sure I will at some point, I’ll slot seamlessly back into this groove without any problems whatsoever.
It’s a fabulous little engine which, when the background beckons you in, purrs along like a dream!!
ps; my t-shirt’s got a hole in the collar
not impressed with the quality at all :31:
oh goody, xmas songs
yay!!
Horses for courses
Depends what type of game they’re playing & how much capital is on the table
Some will use options to hedge
Others will straddle buy/sell tiered orders, especially those operating grids.
Some will net out a certain percentage based on weightings
A lot will depend on where they averaged in & which pairings they’re running open orders on
In situations like this there are as many different permutations as there are strategies in operation.
It’s like the guys constantly remind - objectives dictate risk & a lot of well capped punters run a varied portfolio to not only balance that risk but ensure their nets are cast sufficiently wide enough to snare a decent catch.