You should have received an e-mail yesterday wyntac. He’s away until 23 November so passed your details across to me. As the correspondence confirms, either Art Krantz or Shona Michelson will be contacting you sometime late next week.
Good decision!
He’s recently added a HFT fx algorithm to his ever expanding box of tricks which is apparently working very effectively. That’s certainly the way to go if you have both the finances & wherewithal to incorporate that option.
Hi Scott,
Apparently there’s been an issue at my e-mail provider the last 24 hours or so because yours was amongst a handful received during the past hour that were time stamped from as far back as Friday afternoon.
I’ll look forward to their contact later in the week.
Thanks again guys! 
Self-explanatory action going into this week yes?
USD well bid vs. Euro, Gbp and Jpy.
Might be something on AudNzd if it continues higher but it’s on the "back burner " as you say.
Good luck this week!
Yes.
usd/jpy & usd/cad are clear long candidates as are a couple of the higher profile European indices.
Silver, nzd/usd & eur/cad are high visible short opportunities too for now.
Thanks Saul…I got on board Silver yesterday on the break of the [U]asian low[/U] after that rangebound consolidation and still have it today hoping to burst 14.40 and 14.36. Looking to add to my Euro short and a fresh Kiwi short today on the break of their respective asian ranges also.
I do have a “technical” question for you guys that see all/do all. When we’re betting on future potential outcomes (whether long term, short term, medium term…whether following trend/momo or Value in equities, etc.)…so waht exactly are we trading? There is no real “value” in FX right?..so you have pointed us retail folk to follow themes and try to stay on the correct side of flows…which really boils down to “paying attention” and then using behavioural traits of the market (relevant 2-way stop levels?) to help with timing ?
So I read bank sheets…and everyone more or less talks about the same dynamics…and it allows me to stay in line with current themes and focal points. But if all the savy players are watching the same thing, and doing the same thing then many chart patterns are self fulfilling prophecies due to the behaviour of said players right?
So if everyone does more or less the same thing, how do the markets remain tradable? you need 2-way flows to make a market…
Just wondering about changing market dynamics…why to some methods become obsolete, while others continue to work…
Thanks!
You’re taking advantage of the prices your broker streams to you via his supply agents.
He’s the middle man between you & the price machine.
In a nutshell, yeah.
You’re seeking to avail yourself of dominant themes, be they short, medium or long term.
The style & objectives you set at outset + of course the markets pulse, will determine how long you remain live based on the longevity of that particular theme.
To a very small degree yeah.
But not all the players are looking at the same thing all of the time.
They will have varying objectives & views at different levels on specific instruments & asset classes.
The overall bias or leaning might be generic between the speculative element of banks & funds, but the specifics of how & where they operate within a specific sector might be (& usually are) very different indeed.
See above.
Most of the methods you read about on retail boards are nonsense to begin with, based on fragile/flaky unsustainable structures & models.
The ones that stand the test of time are usually those linked to simple, logical frameworks keying off repetitive, behavioural drivers such as the one discussed & presented here.
One of the reasons Andy Perry’s simple little 3 Ducks set up is the longest live thread still thriving around the generic forum network is because it’s based on very similar ideals.
Dan, (dancat) apache & Art Krantz used to run a private fee paying paltalk room back in 2001 & the stand out, high performer even back then was a very similar approach to Andy’s & the one you see on this thread.
Tess & Jocelyn’s parents used to send investors a monthly update sheet back in the 80’s & even then one of their most profitable stand alone (non-fund) performers was based around the structure you see today on here.
40+ years of evolving market themes, volatility & behavioural traits yet the basic logic based approaches still stand solid & perform consistently!
Hello.
So I have been reading thru the Technical Templates Threads with interest and was directed here.
Having read this thread as well now, I am looking to incorporate the philosophy and concepts as discussed into a trading approach that I will use. First off, I need to set up my model on how I am going to do this and so am working on some notes and objectives to combine into a method (a trading plan if you will). I appreciate that the concept on the face of it is a “keep it simple and tidy” approach, but still I think it would be useful for my purposes to set up some sort of plan.
So in that vein, is this the best place to post and get some feedback ? (noting that the forum it is in “The Melting Pot” rather than other forums which are more in the strategy based areas) .
Many Thanks.
P.S Is there a way to view the thread in date ascending order so that the latest posts are in the last pages. Rather than the latest post being first. I was having a look for sorting a thread but can’t seem to find an option anywhere.
You’re in exactly the right place.
Ask away.
At the top of the page you’ll see a list of headers.
Click on UserCP.
Toggle down to [I]general settings[/I] & navigate to the [I]thread display[/I] options.
Within that section you’ll see [I]thread display mode.[/I]
Try clicking on that & choosing [I]Linear – oldest first.[/I]
That should solve your post order issue.
Ok Thanks.
So rather than post up charts straight away indicating which timeframes, entry signals etc. I will set about creating a “Trading Plan” covering the various aspects I think I need to consider in order to make a serious go at this.
I will set this up in different parts as follows:
Part 1 > Objectives (Short term and long term)
Part 2 > When, What, How (general).
Part 3 > How (more detail).
Part 4 > Record keeping (how will I keep track of what I am doing).
Part 5 > Ways to expand and adapt the approach (if required).
First off some background.
I am a retail trader.
Have been interested in the markets for a number of years and have traded off and on during that time (accompanying a “normal” job). Although I have dabbled in Forex over the years,I have never really followed thru in a serious approach. My main experience is in the US market which fitted in better with my timeframe of working (normal job).
Circumstances change however, so now I am available to trade throught the normal day.
I should also mention that I am based in the UK, so that will impact (Part 2 > When).
With regard to forex specifically > I am familiar with currencies in terms of what they are (e.g. USDCAD is US dollar/Canadian Dollar).
I am familiar with the 3 Ducks approach to trading.
But beyond that there isn’t really much that I know…especially on a fundamental level. E.G I know that NonFarmPayroll (on 1st friday of every month ?) is something to avoid in terms of having open positions. And an interest rate decision on a currency you hold would have an impact. But if you asked me what is NFP ? …wouldn’t have a clue.
If someone says “…BoE have chattered more today with intention of adopting Quantiive Easing…” > I would think …what is that all about, should i get the hell out of my open position which is up like + 5pips ?
Whether my lack of Forex experience is going to be an issue…time will tell…and trading on paper/demo should highlight this, and hopefully will pick up some input from people on here.
Thanks for reading.
Part 1 (currently writing) > will post it when ready.
P.S > Will endevour to keep things concise as possible. Might have rambled on a bit above…sounds a bit like a post on a journal thread…lol
As with the approach, keep it concise & uncluttered.
A few lines on the back of a postcard will suffice, any more than that & you’re storing up (psychological) trouble for yourself, plus of course you’re wasting a load of valuable time…time which could be used enjoying yourself!
There really isn’t that much to do, in fact less equals more.
Here’s a plan:
Any spare time you’ve got can be used to familiarise yourself with what usually drives, dictates & orchestrates prices & excites the herd.
But don’t stress it.
There are a couple of pointers regards that on here & within the thread you’ve just been redirected from.
Most importantly…have fun!
Part 1. Objectives.
Obviously the main objective is to make money. But in terms of how this plays from the start, this is how I plan to approach it.
Part 2. When, What, How (general).
When ?
I am located in UK and available to trade (at my computer) pretty much all day aside from the 15min or so of school run time.
Side Note: The Us markets open at 2:30pm (GMT) so around this time for a couple of hours I will not be available for Forex trading as I need to stay focussed on my non-forex endevours. This won’t be everyday, as there will be some days when I don’t trade the US Open.
So in summary > Typically core hours available for Forex. : 08:00am to 14:00 and 16:00 to 18:00.
What ?
As a first attempt > These are the pairs which I will consider for trading:
EURUSD > GBPUSD > AUDUSD > EURJPY > EURGBP > USDCHF > USDCAD > USDJPY > AUDJPY
(these seem to be the ‘main’ pairs from what I have read so far in various threads etc.)
How ? (General)
My main timeframe driver will be the 4H chart and so this will be used to determine the “best” trending cases as an initial list which will be filtered down further.
My entry timeframe will be the 15min.
I’m more comfortable with pullback type of trading, so will be using stoch hook, 1-2-3 type constructs as my entry criteria.
Judging by your comments jitasb I’m assuming at least one of your stock approaches is geared towards playing pullbacks?
If so, & you’re comfortable with that set up, you should transition pretty seamlessly replicating that play on fx.
The background/foreground structure tossed around on here is certainly conducive to that view, particularly when they’re being driven aggressively up & down the ladder.
hello soultrain.
yeah…well in fact pullbacks is pretty much the majority of my trading.
The thing with pullbacks (in my experience) is the variability in terms of getting one clean pullback, or you may get multiple messy pullbacks, failures, shakeouts etc. Obviously nothing is guaranteed in this business, so it has to be accepted.
I have put the Stoch pullback and 1-2-3 as my entry criteria in my plan. but I should say that this is because it seems to be what people are using for pullbacks in the Technical Templates concept. It’s not something which I currently trade with.
I have dabbled with Stoch hook previously with no definite feelings (positive or negative) either way in terms of accuracy. But have to start somewhere with an entry criteria and these methods seem as good as any from what I have read in the threads. And in any case the actual entry criteria is not the most important part of this concept ? The primary bias and the choice of filtering out and the decisions on which pairs to trade seem to be of primary importance.
So I can take forward my current experience of trading in that I am trend based and I can visualize pullbacks as a way to get in on a trend. So it is something I am comfortable with as a concept more than say trading ranges. But I can’t really replicate my stock trading method because that is more discretionary and involves reading orderflow, the tape, bids and offers etc and the like.
hahaha, nothing much changes there then.
must have been a good weekend for him not to turn in for work!
well, that’s the case with most approaches to be honest.
a good percentage of wash outs can usually be traced back to, or certainly partly attributed to loose or lacklustre selection/filtering procedures.
yeah, i was actually referring to the generic pb concept, but totally get what you mean regards specifics.
good luck with dipping your toes a tad more seriously into the forex sludge pit!
Sludge pit indeedy….aint that so Seth me old yankee mucker!! :54:
#slippinginthesludge #coveryourtracksstealthily #bettercallsaul
[B]Part 3. How (more detail)[/B]
Approach market analysis at 8:00am - 9:00am GMT.
My [U]primary bias[/U] chart will be the 4Hours with some input from the 1H.
Using SMA(60) and visual price action (HH, HL, LH etc) to determine bias (e.g. bullish).
First filter: Only the “best” trending cases will be carried forward.
Second Filter : Any important news that day (nfp, interest rates) will exclude affected pairs.
Third Filter : If a large number of pairs still exist then take into account which currency is strongest relative to the weakest to narrow down further.
My [U]entry[/U] chart will be the 15M.
Actual Entry will be variable and driven by consideration of the following factors
-Use of the Stoch Hook
-Use of price action (HH etc, 1-2-3 pattern)
-Use of ADR : ensure that at proposed entry the pair has not already traveled more than 50% of its daily range
-Use of prior ‘important’ levels such as previous day/week high/low
-Minimum R:R must be 1:2
Trade Management
[B]Part 4. Record Keeping.[/B]
On back burner is writing an application to document my trading, entries, results, P/L which I will use mostly for my non-forex trading.
Then this forex TT trading could fit into there as well. But for the time being I am tracking everything on spreadsheets.
Recording will comprise the following:
[B]Part 5. Ways to expand and adapt the approach.[/B]
Just some things to consider while in demo or after some time when trading approach has bedded in:
With regards to ADR. Is this just applicable to a straight line direction from open price to current price ?
So for example say EURUSD has ADR=100. In current day…your entry price is 20 pips away from current day’s open. However previously during the ‘day’ it has moved up 50 pips then down 30 pips. Has it already used 80 pips of the ADR by virtue of that movement ?
People who are trading this approach, do you typically check you primary bias on a daily basis ? For a 4H timeframe, it may not change much over course of a few days. So do you say check charts at weekend to filter the possibilities then stick with those same choices during the upcoming week ?
Thanks
The average range is purely a cursory guide or barometer as to how much potential gas is left in the tank on any given day or week.
If you’re placing a session or day bet having identified the primary direction, & you’ve mapped out a likely entry area, you want to try ensure a decent percentage of the day’s range is still in play.
If for example it’s moved up during the Tokyo session & pulled back during early European trade & it hasn’t used up too much of its available range, it still offers decent probability of continuation providing the bet offers reasonable odds when taking your stop & risk into consideration.
It’s the same story regarding the weekly range. If you’re seeking to enter with ambitions of rolling your bets over into the next & corresponding sessions you want to see some potential for further movement.
As you correctly note, there isn’t usually very much fluctuation in the dominant directional bias over that period of time, particularly if the trend is established & well supported.
I tend to use this framework in identifying & filtering my watch-list on a revolving basis.
Once I promote a candidate onto the front burner I’m constantly monitoring others whenever circumstances dictate they come under scrutiny due to either a positive or negative focus from the market participants.
It will generally take a good few sessions for a dominant regional currency or specific pairing to begin exhibiting signs of exhaustion or consolidation, which is plenty of time to monitor, track & change it’s staus on your watch-list.
Experience is telling me I don’t usually need to demote/promote very many candidates during a typical week. Once they’re in vogue they can sit there for most of the week & longer unless the fundamental landscape changes dramatically.
As mentioned before, not experienced in Forex.
Does the pair you trade ideally need to be traded in its own session. E.g. The USDCAD is showing a clean trend on the long term 4H chart and is on my A-list for a long. Is it best to enter into it during the NY session rather than say the London open ?
I guess the same might apply to the Asian currencies AUDJPY …best left to the Tokyo session ?
Or can you generalise and trade the London open irrespective of the pair ?
Well obviously you can trade it…but what I mean is it advisable to trade it.
Thanks
Thanks.