Yes, well played.
Bets are tricking in this week too on euro/canadian looking for a push through last week’s low & a run on 4950.
T’will be a nice little earner if it obliges.
Looks like you won a few bucks on that little wiggle darren.
It slowed right around apache’s spotlight zone at the mid 42’s which it’s now flirting with, pitching it right back inside the mix with clear upper & lower boundaries for folks to aim at.
If the cyclical pressure is suitably supported & it has ambitions to breakout above last week’s high this is where those seeking to probe that possibility will begin stacking their bets.
Should be decent each-way activity here considering the location.
Luck was with me this time…yes
I like the intraday bets, in and out in a day is my thing. T1 @ 1:1 or better depending on what’s left in the days range. 90% off @ T1.
Trying out this idea of leaving 10% in the market on each winning intraday bet. Nice when you get in on a move as shown by the Cable over the last several weeks.
We’ve certainly seen worse idea’s over the years.
One or two of the higher weekly range cross pairs will definitely inflate your piggy bank when you manage to catch one of their wavey cycles that’s for sure!
These are the popular structural instruments this week on the radar of those punting this particular approach. A lot of crosswinds for obvious reasons, but still decent opportunities out there if you filter your candidates accordingly.
I’m still favouring Crude as the main market driver…I took part in the breakout after the challow consolidation overnight and am still in, in case it wants to grow legs. Of course, Crude’s ascent has kept UsdCad in play too.
I’ll be shifting attention to Jpys post-BoJ and of course the usual candidates like CadJpy and EurJpy remain the best choices for any (potential) JPy weakness if BoJ surprizes and enhances QQE.
One or two of your punters, & no doubt you guys, will be quaffing a few bevvies this weekend & no mistake. That’s another nice leg down on Yen this week courtesy of the BoJ!
I didn’t personally bet any of those highlighted (yen) pairs but you can’t/couldn’t deny there were cyclical directional hooks & breakouts aplenty right across the timeframe spectrum all week long, which you were obviously telegraphing.
Reminds me of the posts encouraging readers to help reduce the risk & increase the value by identifying & executing entries ahead of potentially whippy or tricky breakout/continuation areas & levels.
Once again that tactic looks to have paid dividends.
The savvy ones will for sure, but the thick end of the money is made from those who continually get it wrong & as per usual there was no shortage of those candidates attempting to long Yen the past few sessions by standing in front of the train.
He came to the firm a couple of times with Deadly (Alan Dedicoat) on his children in need fundraisers & we’d always get at least one Janet & John story!!
An incredibly funny guy
What a shame.
yeah he raised sh*t loads of dough in the city, especially via his after dinner speeches which were legendary!
he was also instrumental in introducing this smooth, silky warbler to the british music audience
good on yer Tel 
This brings back a memory… :45:
Back in the day, in another venue, the sisters were attempting to instill good habits in us retail folk by buying near previous demand (where the masses would be selling) and by selling near previous supply (where the masses would be buying). You’ve told us they no longer use prior swing points & sup/res as before, but back then they said the same thing:
the easy(-er) money is made by taking the other side of less savy players.
Fast forward to today…all the fancy bucket shops have their “Speculative Sentiment Index” or “open positions” showing how their clients are positioned. I still haven’t worked this info into my weekly routines, but I’m wondering if there’s any use in doing so ?
The only thing I can think of is that retail positioning becomes “important” during evident trends…when you get an evident trend and they start to fight it, then their pain becomes our gain as we pop the stops. However, I’m wondering if you have any suggestions about this, or whether I should just ignore it and continue with business as usual.
Thanks & good luck this week!
When trading this type of approach that’s where you’ll notice the largest degree of skew & benefit the most.
For some strange reason folks still love to try & pick premature turns in market action & as these internal & occasional public stats continually confirm, a large percentage of them get it (& the timing) hopelessly wrong.
A current example, according to AltTab & soultrain, being the increasing amount of (retail) punters piling into longs on USD/CAD last week from 4250-4300 resulting in virtually all of it sliding into the brokers coffers (& savvy punters pockets) by Friday lunchtime in burnt stop loss orders.
Dan, apache & double 6 mentioned the same circumstance in Yen pairs several times last week too. In fact 4 of the pairs on cator’s graphic were typical candidates of this bad habit.
Not only were they punting Yen the wrong way but noticeably GBP/CAD where they were piling into longs at 2.0250 & 2.03 & attempting to short AUD/USD in quite decent amounts around the 0.6950 level, most of which ended up financing the weekend beer money yet again.
But given the silly habits of the majority of these types of punter, you don’t really need those stats to confirm your stance at all. Just continue to play the sentiment/flows as we’ve suggested adopting the consistently positive set ups & you’ll naturally be the right side of the majority of their losses on a short to medium range outlook.
Following my obsession with the Cable from last week. Would like to short it again if the opportunity arises.
Perhaps a 1H/30M hook. As long as we are not too close to last weeks low.
Entry around 1.4230-4220 would be nice… close to London open
Edit: 12 Hrs after my post above and no entry. Cable went Long and looks to remain long. Using 3 Ducks 4H 60SMA to guide the way.
Yen shorts are still in play for now until the structural cycle invalidates on your preferred frame of reference.
Oil attracted decent participation yesterday too, as did gold, so keep an eye on those two for further potential breakout/pullback directional shifts.
Not much else setting the heart aflutter out there at present, but its early days.
Whoever paid attention to your prompts made some hay yesterday as Gold and crude trotted along nicely. We’ve also had a shallow consolidation in Gold and GbpUsd overnight that makes breakout longs attractive.
I’m also long NzdUsd on the break of 6550 looking for a push past 6600, waiting to see what happens at 6650s.
Asian boards took on water so shorting Dax might not be so difficult today.
Good luck everyone!
Yeah there were particularly solid bets virtually all day on oil yesterday. A little bit of profit taking near last week’s lows into Tokyo but that always to be expected at spotlight levels such as those, especially on the more active/volatile instruments.
If you hitched up into either of those two this morning you’ve got a bit of value.
I’m sure you’re aware kiwi/dollar has tagged it’s adr for today up at c6600, so that might take a little wind out of it’s sails, but as long as it continues to honor the structural cycle you have no decision to make other than follow it along.
That is definitely [B]the[/B] most important & significant detail of the whole concept you guys - & the template crew beforehand – have impressed upon me personally.
If the cycle or structure remains intact on your primary or secondary reference of choice, regardless what has taken place or evolved, [B]you don’t cash out the bet until that cycle is violated[/B].
I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve exited positions just because a support or resistance level (when I used to use those in the past) has been touched, or a pair has covered its average days range only for the move to do exactly what you described earlier & break new ground or continue unabated.
And today’s +20-30% shift beyond the respective daily ranges of nzd/usd & cable are a classic examples of that rule.
The primary benefit of adopting that principle is geared toward achieving maximum value each time you initiate a gamble.
The risk/value pendulum is constantly swinging back & forth between plus & minus & the core structure of this approach is to leg into (short-med range) momentum shifts via either breakouts (as appropriately advised) or pullbacks, attempting to pitch the pendulum on the weighted side of value.
Getting in ahead of previous busy zones of conflict to test the resolve of the current dominant theme/s is one excellent way of achieving that positive value whilst minimizing your risk outlay.
Another consistently successful angle is to dial in & out of established directional shifts via momentum moves triggered by pullbacks & breakouts.
Either scenario prompts you to run your positive gambles for as long as they adhere to the high/low…low/high cyclical ladder because unless you do you’re in danger of diluting that hard earned value & elevating the risk cost.
Each element of the process, although extremely straightforward, logical & simple in its development has to be executed smartly in order to offer you the highest chance of positive expectancy.
The beauty of it is, it allows you to mess up by affording you decent margins for error if you’re smart enough to cut the losing gambles off at the knees & run the successful ones to their natural momentum biased conclusion……& of course provifing you filter your candidates properly!
Guys,
I vaguely recall one of you mentioned a website related to dark pool/algo/ block stream liquidity taps for SPY/ES.
I’ve searched (including the dark recesses of my brain) but can’t for the life of me dig out or remember the info.
Could a kind soul please hit up the site link again?
Cheers.
It’s Stevie Hammer & his merry band of magic box bandits @ @HFTAlert Market Analytical and Trading Software
muchas gracias apache, you’re a good egg!!
i did eventually find the Art Krantz stuff too so I’m (finally) a happy bunny this weekend.
