I had seen some replies in another venue by Krantz and would also read anything else that he has written around the web - if it’s possible to share of course
This week was quite interesting…next week might be dull apart from Yellen’s testimony. USD will no doubt be under pressure if Yellen is as cautious as Dudley last week. UsdJPy and EurUsd look like good candidates to trade, on a weak USD theme.
We also closed the week risk-off, so Dax shorts and Gold longs still look attractive.
Not much else on the radar…but I did have one question: McDermott (RBNZ) said that the Kiwi is a little too high last week. I think it’s logical to follow whatever Central Bankers say in their comments - since they are the heavy hitters in FX space. but what weight do you attribute to comments like this? Just keep it in the back of your mind until the trend turns, and then maybe be slightly more aggressive since the central bank itself “should” be on your side?
You obviously have to keep it up there on your list, because you never quite know if/how they’re going to play it, Swiss National being the most recent example of Central Bank nonsense. But these guys are always chirping whenever things begin getting get too hot or too cold.
His office were wittering back in October when kiwi was trading the 68 handle & it continued all through December on the revisit.
There’s a clear 64-68 range on that currency which players are well aware of & the administration would prefer it to be hugging the lower end of that range.
Just be aware they’re visible (being vocal) & warning the market they’re "watching rates"
There’s not a lot else you can do about it apart from give it a body swerve & gamble something else, especially if it runs aggressively through recent upper range limits @68.
Well looky who’s reached the [B]BIG 3 0[/B]
Time you hauled a saddle on that mustang….advancing years & creaking coccyx can play havoc with a guy’s rheumatic ailments!!!
Make sure you consume liberal amounts of firewater tomorrow amigo!
Billy reports he didn’t turn in today lol
his IM channel is still on record…must have been a heavy w/end!
Apart from a small handful of posts filling in for Tess back in the original templates thread you won’t find much else anywhere on the net trailingstop. He doesn’t post on public forum space.
The stuff wyntac was probably referring to is programme/algo material which he’s heavily involved in.
Your filters offered you another good start to the week!
A case of, providing nothing on the landscape changes just continue to play the easy card.
yeah we started the week where we left off last week…risk off. I shorted GbpJpy actually, and Dax, ignoring gold unfortunately. This morning Gold is setting up a 1H hook after a shallow asian session…the feeling today is that the markets are a little more uncertain than yesterday - and that’s logical given the BoJ is verbally “active”, watching prices…so not too many punters want to be heavily shorting the Jpy pairs after they have already covered 100% of their weekly ranges more or less.
Euro and other USD pairs stilla little scrappy tbh.
I’m still a little confused on GOld…is it driven more by expected inflation or risk on/off? I still feel a little out of sync with Gold and it has in fact shaken me out of positions on a number of occasions.
Re: Krantz’ stuff…as a retail trader - despite using this trend/momo model with some success - I often wonder what the pro’s are doing, and whether it really is possible to ignore all else and pursue 1 model.
A variety of drivers really.
Central Banks hold, buy & sell fair amounts of the metal based on current (& forward) economic outlook. Their activity alone can very much impact & influence the movement in prices when they up the ante.
Crises situations such as weakening regional and/or global economies will encourage investors to increase their exposure. Dollar strength/weakness & speculation also strongly affect prices. Active market participants tend to liquidate dollar positions when it begins falling out of favour & use a proportion of that liquidated wedge to place bets on gold.
Inflationary/deflationary pressures (particularly when the price of oil begins rising/falling) tends to fuel gold prices too.
They rarely pursue just one model or approach trailingstop.
Much of the stuff he, & to a larger extent the original template guys, is involved in these days revolves around high frequency stock/equity algorithm models, automated short-medium range futures & options, currency grid offsets & an increasing amount of currency futures activity.
The activity is always geared towards what’s in vogue, risk profiling & client and/or individual objectives. But the basic approaches they’ve presented here are the closest mirror effect of achieving a high probability positive expectancy outcome for folks operating on very limited budgets & market accessibility options.
As with most things business related, the more money at your disposal the larger degree of choice available
Thanks for adding some colour to the Gold scenario. I did take the pullback long today, and closed it not too long ago…everything else made a killing today (I did not expect such a violent reversal in risk FX) and so the fact that Gold couldn’t rally as hard as Euro had me on the defensive.
I also took dax short again today.
So I guess the real question that keeps popping up - and is most likely related to the years of struggling us retail traders go through before learning how to play the game - is this: how to you guys continue to be “on the ball” and elaborate new systems, adapt old ones and/or erase things that aren’t working before it’s too late?
Sure, the method you have shown here has worked for 40 years or so (someone previously said that I think?) and is still providing more than enough fun. I’m not trying to undermine the success I’m enjoying with this method. I’m more interested in the process of how you go about creating new methods and revisiting old ones…
Run them until they either stop for breath or collapse from exhaustion.
Step aside.
Re-evaluate.
Wait for the next set up & kick it on again.
Experience plays a huge part.
As a group, each individual will bring unique skills to the party & know their markets inside out, how they operate, why they operate, when the optimum times are to apply the models at their disposal & more importantly, when to remain flat.
To be honest, a good percentage of their models & approaches develop from core structural elements which have proven to work efficiently & effectively under similar market conditions. They’ll add & tweak specific elements which they feel will suit the particular objectives, test & apply them & put them to work.
The short range models are geared towards very specific volatility market behaviors & primed to kick in whenever those conditions are setting up to reflect optimum probability returns.
But like anything else in this business, it’s a results & numbers game.
You just got to ensure at the end of the accounting quarter the positive numbers outweigh the negative ones.
She looks ultra smart though leafing thru that intellectual broadsheet, red shooze or not!!
as long as she’s sat as far away from the gruesome twosome (andre & jimmy) her street cred will remain intact!
Those 2 offerings look like the kind of stuff our old buddy Mr Wogan (& lately Graham Norton) would have mightily slaughtered at the eurovision pantomime show.
What nationality are you trailingstop?
You certainly don’t appear to be struggling with the identification process.
Do you not ever roll any of these aggressive movers over at all?
Good momentum shifts & potential continuation candidates have been identified recently in dax, gold, oil & yen offering little or no cycle/trend violations intraday-week.
That’s where the true value & benefit of this type of set up is, particularly those positions adhering to clear, structured cycle moves.
Data from brokerage statistics of those operating similar strategies suggests even pushing one or two over the course of a month can have a marked effect on your bottom line.
Oh man, you have no idea how much chaos & piss take ammunition you’ve bestowed upon us with that video!! & although we would dearly love to milk it further we actually have to face them at some point & their other halves are bigger, fitter & meaner than us!
But it appears we have a green light for porn now billy boy!!!
The mind boggles with potential piss take video opportunities, which is very bad news for the template kids!!
LOL, yeah that was indeed a classic faux pas of gigantic proportions!
Should be able to generate sufficient mileage from that to last virtually the entire year
There really is a god!!
See Gold, oil, yen, indices rocking on steroids
It truly is a wonderful week to be alive watching Dan & soultrain wandering around so happy & contented.
See John looking at all the stops of the short yen punters melting in the heat.
See John smile.
See John enthusiastically checking his bonus ledger.
John chooses an appropriate video for the occasion.
ps: please stick to posting charts only trailingstop…your vid choices are bringing the secretaries out in hives
Are you referring to long standing stops Billy, further up around last week’s lows?
Because I can’t imagine there would be many fresh short yen orders leading into this week would there?
Obviously there’s the threat of intervention, or rather big stick waving from the BoJ, but even so surely that wouldn’t have inspired swathes of accounts to go long USD/GBP/EUR & other crossess v/s YEN?
don’t you believe it boyo.
just stop & think for a minute the typical type of punter you’re dealing with at this level of the game, & don’t forget, they’re your competitor!!
money, greed & ignorance make for a heady c*cktail.
also bad habits in a lot of folks are very difficult to break no matter how many times they’re pointed out or highlighted.
he was referencing this week’s liquidation stops @
164½ in pound/yen
113¾ in dollar/yen
128¾ & 128 ¼ in euro/yen etc etc across the other yen denominated pairings
small clutches had been reset around the same area from those going long last week so that merely hastened the liquidation exercise.
what we experience is normally indicative & reflective of the majority of punters across the retail spectrum as they tend to behave like sheep, following the same type of analysis regime, bet management structures & objectives.
Which begs the question why it’s packaged, presented & delivered to new entrants & interested parties at this level so aggressively by all & sundry, particularly information sites, supposed coaches & legions of forum members as some sort of minimum default requirement prior to getting started.
Who actually benefits from all the intensive & prolonged periods of technical analysis study if, as you say, the end results don’t positively reflect the time/effort ratio!
