My discertionary list hasn’t altered much recently. I’m continuing to seek out the usual set ups in Euro, Sterling, Canadian & Australian Dollars as they move via breakouts or pullbacks with current dominant momentum & until the landscape begins to invalidate the directional pull they are still my premier hot list currency plays again for this week.
And shorts make up most of the focus set ups too.
I have EURJPY & GBPJPY shorts + GBPAUD, GBPCAD & EURAUD taking preference.
GBP & EUR v/s NZD make it onto the target list as they look to attack the previous 2 weekly lows on their respective charts.
So one or two likely candidates setting up for both intraday & intraweek plays as we start a fresh week.
Good luck everyone.
They’re only a valid prompt whenever you’re on the hunt for pullbacks or continuations within a directional move darren.
You wouldn’t pay attention to them in any other situation or circumstance other than that because their effectiveness will be diluted or impotent.
So for instance, taking your euro/dollar short example this morning as it dropped through the previous session low & continued to slip past last week’s lows, hourly and/or sub hourly hook extensions would offer valid entry prompts due to the fact price is [U]already[/U] being pushed in an identifiable & established directional move.
A 5 minute hook extension rolled during the Tokyo session at 1113/15 & a 15 minute hook rolled over right around your entry during early european trade.
A 5 minute hook rolled of on one of sketchers filter pairs (gbp/jpy) at 160.30 which qualifies as a pullback/continuation opportunity. Same on 5 minute gbp/cad this morning at 1.9505, same on eur/aud at 1.55 & 1.5430
The filter/high probability set up is; [U]established directional momentum.[/U]
Those are typically the types of extensions you’re looking for.
The light bulb has just gone on Cator. Thats the piece of the puzzle I was not quite seeing. Us folks down here in oz can be a wee bit slow at times, less oxygen in the Southern hemisphere.
What did you mean by “hooks mirrored the pullback/continuation phase during asia”? Can you post up an example when you get a spare five minutes please.
Till now I have been told to trade from the London open. Trading the Asian session is too much of a gamble type thing.
hahaha, you do yourself an injustice!
The air is just fine down yonder.
I’ve worked the Sydney/Tokyo session on a few different occasions & to be honest it throws up its fair share of decent opportunities, especially when conditions turn volatile. I always found the Australasian crosses ok to gamble on along with the equity indexes. The post Tokyo lunchtime period can be very lucrative at times.
Obviously the premier volatility & volumes kick up & transact during european business hours & the north american overlap, but asia certainly has its moments!
I just meant there were similar pullback/continuation hook set ups playing out on those Aussie & Yen crosses that sketcher mentioned during today’s Asian shift, similar to those you identified on eur/usd.
Just scroll back through one or two of them via your sub hourly (5&15min) chart options to see what I mean.
This part of the process really can’t be underestimated. It might not be as exciting as searching for entries, but it’s something you just have to do to make this template really work in my opinion.
This morning’s bets illustrate it again-
3 trades:
I’ve taken half off, and will let the remaining run.
Thick end of the wages are already in the bank this week Perch Tird with most Sterling crosses stretching in excess of 130% weekly ranges courtesy of the volatility.
Tomorrow & Friday is an icing on the cake exercise if opportunity continues to knock.
hahaha, exactly how many meeting walls do you lot have flies on??
but yeah, just a shame I can’t relocate the wholse show from the city to the edge of the ranch!
i’ll get them to polish a saddle for you next time you’re Stateside
ps; nice work on the audio splicing!!
or was it the long dark haired one who twiddled with the deck controls
pps; counting your Trump winnings yet??..go donny donny, go donny donny!
Who’d have thought a rough necked, scraggy assed confederate would pull his bootstraps up sufficiently enough to get to sit in such a grandiose saddle!
Oh well, up go the bloody fees & commissions
Down come the previously high customer service standards
………….at least punters won’t be short changed on the repartee
Esther knew before you did Texxas.
We are the ears of your world!!
I guess you’ll have your own personal boot shine boy in the lobby now!
Well if old Deputy Donald gets elected & the fence gets built Texxas will lose all his illegal mexkins & up will go the ranch wages bill….if the punters think the comms, slippage, delays & freezes are bad now wait till [I]Billy the Bandit[/I] gets his orders to bully & bait the punters.
Hey Billy!! It’s against the law these days to bully the punters – the broker police are watching [B][U]you[/U][/B].
I think lookback periods & timeframes used will depend upon your overall trading style/objectives. For example, if you’re looking to hold for a few days or more, then you may look at the 4h or the Daily. Then there are examples of using the 1h as the background timeframe for intraday bets.
For me personally (& please bear in mind I’m still very much learning - I hope some of the guys here can come & keep me on the strait & narrow if I’m veering off…) I’ll usually look for a structure holding up for anywhere between 1-4 weeks, as just through practice & trying different timeframes/management styles that suits what I’m looking for in a trade.
For next week, like you I see Cad & Usd strength. Trailingstop’s Gbpcad certainly paid off well the last few days and is on my list.
Eurcad which you mention is on my list as well & I’m holding a trade over from Friday. It showed a good structure on my background timeframe-
The entry was a typical London open pullback - price pulling back to the Asian highs:
Monday is end of month, & this could affect pairs with maybe some profit-taking on the big moves, so I’ll be a bit more cautious than usual & maybe pare back on position size if I decide to take any new entries.
kechel has his stall set out & is working the template (as advised) in accordance with his own personal style, risk & capital limits.
None of us will disagree with his outlook & to throw another log onto the fire I’ll simply reiterate that if you’re looking to take advantage of whatever is orchestrating the intraweek/medium term rhythm of the market then anything up to a 60 day view in order to get a feel for, & gauge the background structure is plenty enough darren.
If a region/currency/commodity etc is attracting participation for whatever reason, & it’s a strong attraction, there will be more than one leg of positive/negative movement to get stuck into, as you’re already discovering.
Should you miss the first (or even the 2nd) leg & [B]the reasons[/B] for the initial move are still valid (which you’ll determine via the newswires/mkt wraps), you’ll always get another crack at it with this type of approach because it’s structured to capture the current mood & volatility of the market.
The beauty of having virtually no moving parts is you’ve got plenty of time to experiment with how much or how little background structure you require in order to bring your entries & bet management into play.
There will be opportunities to run bets over multiple day’s & into the following week if so desired on the back of a strong momentum shift, & as kechel correctly states, those tactics will very much be dependent on your objectives for a particular currency, it’s regional influences at the time, the risk appetite of the market & your own risk/capital limits.
just when you thought all recorded evidence had long since evaporated….
chicago kc’s aka "electric ballroom"
umpteen bourbons later……………
& there’s [B]still[/B] a recorded copy of that epic floor show in circulation!!
one wonders what price a[I] bandit broker[/I] might pay to own that piece of golden piss take material
of course i’m open to bribe offers…
shake it shake it shake it shake it shake it shake it shake it - you young nubile hip swivellers you!
You’ve been highlighting/proofing some consistently solid set ups, of which this is another typical example. Well done, it’s nice to see you (& a couple others) maintaining a steady line!
Judging by the quality contributions you & one or two others are posting up, that’s not going to need to happen.
Don’t know about the learning phase but as stop runner notes, you’re more than holding your own with your observations & executions, which isn’t really surprising when operating a logical approach containing so few moving parts.
Like a few others before, you guys are quickly realising that frees up much more time to focus on the more important tasks of filtering the wheat from the chaff & remaining flexible with your bet management options, shuffling as & when required to suit the current market pulse.
Simplicity is the art of sophistication.
Keep it rolling guys!
never mind hey, you can always fall back to those solid old faithfuls of 'drugs & prostitution’
unless of course you fancy getting into the inflatable dinghy & high viz vest business??
apparently it’s still a growth industry in the med.
Yes, this is what I try and keep in mind with these bets.
I guess ideally I’d have caught an earlier leg in some of the moves over the last week or so to allow more opportunity to add in & roll over, it’s something I’m working on & looking at.
Hasn’t done you any harm on your current EURCAD gamble.
That’s still jogging along handsomely.
Well managed
As you very well know William, in business there’s a smart way of doing things & then there’s the hard way.
If you’re positioned very comfortably at both ends of the rental scale completely unencumbered & prices are steadily increasing there’s virtually no downside, especially if you’ve already ridden out the harsher drawdowns!
Buy bargain basement in bulk at the auctions & deal them into local authorities for guaranteed rents.
Buy premium postcodes smartly via bankruptcies & foreclosures then market them to those with more money than sense.
Wash rinse repeat.
There’s a punter for every occasion, not to mention a fresh supply wave clogging up european borders as we speak!
Just to pull your leg a little gentlemen… what is your view about Trading vs. Investing?
The reason I’d like to address this is because I’m looking to enhance my understanding of investment vehicles and their usefulness (if at all?).
I read a book by Tony Robbins recently (MONEY) where he also interviewed some top fund managers. Basically in the book, trading was contemplated as only the top of the pyramid - to be done with very little capital and only the capital you can afford to risk. And there’s little to debate here.
However the base of the pyramid was made up of investment/protection vehicles such as Fixed Indexed Annuities, and active asset allocation similar to what Alpha Architect is doing: they allow common folk to get an actively managed asset allocation, with momentum & value tilts (both international and domestic) as well as commodity exposure (via backwardation/momentum), bond exposure (10yr notes) and REITs. They risk manage via a 12 month simple moving average.
Some other investing gurus talk about net net stocks…graham’s cigar butt strategy…others talk about bond ladders etc…
What do you guys personally do with your savings? I suppose it would make sense to get beta returns by paying someone for a diversified active portfolio approach? The objective would then be long term capital appreciation…say the 10yr + 4% p.a. as defined by Alpha Architect? (btw I have no affiliation with them, just that they tend to be very explicit with their strategies and explain a lot).
I personally have trouble shifting mindsets from trading to investing…in trading you want to be in only when it makes sense and out when things are retracing/shifting/unclear…investing you’re basically always in the market through ups and downs. And we’re used to following drivers/trends…whereas investing essentially just has a 1/N approach.
This confusing post replicates my confused mindset regarding how to allocate some savings. My personal objective would be to have some kind of passive income (interest/dividends/slow account growth) that could grow over time, and allow me to also use my risk capital with less mental burden. Teh promise that these investors and gurus (like Robbins) make is quite appetizing…just that it seems too good to be true.
Looking for some opinions and/or alternative places to look in order to efficiently allocate some savings.
Thanks guys and long live the Cad strnegth that we’ve been playing for around a week now!
